Le Tour '07: The Wide Open Roads

GC:  the consensus here is that the race will be won in the time trials--at least that's what Astana is counting on, but I'm guessing that powering through a 55k tt in the third week of a grand tour is a difficult task to plan for, especially if you've had to burn multiple matches in the mountain stages.  I'd look for the time trials to be big anti-climaxes--unless, of course, they leave the door open for a Dave Zabriskie come-back.

What fun it will be to watch the Kloden/Vinokourov battles . . . unless, of course, Hildi is so used to being brow-beaten that he's happy with being the tour contender who was never given a chance by his own teams.

Forget Menchov unless he takes yellow in the last time trial--Rabo's team is not built to control a race (can you imagine the sight of Freire on the front??).

Also, forget Sastre, unless he takes 10-15 minutes in the mountains.  As well Valverde, who will crack at km35 of the first time trial (assuming he makes it that far).  Also, Caisse d'Epargne has the makings of another T-Mobile for in-squad dissension, unless of course, Unzue can get Karpets, Efimkin and Rodriguez to be the new Beltran and Rubiera.

I'm very hesitant to write anything nice about Leipheimer, given his penchant for race-losing bad days, especially since he has delivered race-losing mountain stages and time trials. BUT, he's not ridiculously skinny like he has been the last couple of years, and he hasn't peaked too soon--and, he potentially has Padrnos, Hincapie, and Nozal to help control things.

And that's about all I can muster for gc.  Green jersey will go to the best sprinter who can survive the mountains--Zabel or Petacchi.  I'm rooting for Zabel, just for the hypocrisy that would engender.

What I'm really interested in, though, is calculating the amount of time that will be spent by the French teams on hopeless tv-time breakaways or chasing down the meaningless kom jersey points in the first week.  How much time will Sylvain Chavanel have lost before they get to the mountains?  Will Voekler's tongue have to be surgically removed from a moto-cam lens?

Levi finally has the form, experience, and the team to win a TDF. This is the first year I have seen Levi race and actually have teamates around him. Valverde has never finished a Tour, Vino and his team will blow up from attacking each other, Rodgers!?, Menchov is a stage winner at best, Sastre could never handle the media, Cadel Evans only does well enough to have his name mentioned for the next year and certainly does'nt have a team to support him. A Tour team can only support one star and that's McEwen. It is an extremely open Tour but barring injury Levi is my pick with George winning another stage somewhere along the way.  

One knee injury in 2005 + one freak accident in 2006. It seems a bit harsh to start labeling him as weak and unlikely to stay the distance. I would say his slow fade in last years Vuelta is a bigger questionmark in that case.

They don't help me with the sick feeling I get when I try to convince myself that Vino will win.  Something keeps whispering in my ear that he's just not that good, just not that consistent, and his TT speed won't save him.  As for the rest of his team, which is a powerhouse, the other GC contenders won't look at them as monolithic bloc because they aren't.  I see them faltering just enough to leave the yellow wide open .

I don't have a favorite though oddly Sastre's blah performance in Switzerland is bring back last years Landis DL performance and we know how that turned out.

Valv.Piti, if he even gets a chance to start, has a bad run of luck in the Tour, and will have huge T-Mobilesque issues with his amazingly strong team. He also had the issue of faltering in the 3rd week, which doesn't speak well to his favorability

Vino never does well on the first mountain stage, and if the teams are smart this year, as they should be, he won't be able to get away (the stage to Briancon is the only possiblity I see, but quite frankly, I don't see Il Falco making it far enough to use his crazy descending skills.

Sastre and Schleck are an interesting combination because they have one of the more underrated teams, but still an amazing one: Cancellara and Dave Z can hammer the TTs; Julich, Dave Z, Jens, and probably some others are solid support riders, and Stuey can hammer it on the flats (and, as we saw in Zuri-Metzgete, is still able to hold his own in some smaller climbs, which is a bonus) and even an outside Green jersey possibility. I think that CSC has by far the best all-around team, and some of the best support. They have the ability to win countless stages with many riders, and have one of the most consistent climbers (Sastre), and a good support rider who can hold his own with the best on some stages (Schleck). Both have the Achilles Heel of the TTs, which could seriously favor Dave Z

Menchov? If he can do it without huge team support (although, TDekker, ~:>, and the tooth monster aren't bad, plus Flecha's pretty strong as well) in the early stages, and without ~:>'s help on the big mountain stages, I can see him having a shot. Sadly, I don't think he's really good enough in the mountains on a consistent basis (last year's Tour was kind of a disaster in the Alps)

Levi is another interesting possibility. I think he's got his preparation right this year, for one (except for the weak Dauphine, and perhaps a painful crash), and has the team to help him out. Devolder, Gusev, and Hincapie are strong climbers for support (and not too shabby on their own), and Contador and Popovych are both some decent GC contenders who will work for him completely (until he cracks, then... who knows)

Cadel and Moreau were both showing good form, but in Cadel's case, I'm concerned about lack of a strong team (Horner isn't much, really), and for Moreau I think he peaked too early, or may be gunning for the KOM jersey rather than a real GC spot. If he's got his Dauphine form though, I would not count him out.

Jose Angel Gomez Marchante of Saunier or Zubeldia, Sanchez, or Anton of Euskaltel could surprise , as they are all good climbers, but only Gomez or Sanchez can really time trial well enough for have a shot. Mayo could pull something, but I think he's going for the KOM jersey.

The sprints all depend on who can climber over the mountains without dying. Boonen has never made it, which is bad for him. Robbie also has a bad run of luck in the mountains, and Petacchi is gonna have some trouble, too. Zabel, O'Grady, and Thor are my guesses to win it, and I'd put my money on Thor to win it.

KOM? ~:> is my favorite because of his domination last year. David de la Fuente, if he's racing, could put up a fight, but I think Moreau and Mayo will be his big competitors for it.

White jersey:
This could be an interesting one, I think. I'll have to look at some of the (possible) startlists, but here's my thoughts: Thomas Dekker, Bernhard Kohl and Marcus Fothen, Remy Di Gregorio would be my best bets. Dekker's the best Time Trialist, and none of those guys can stay up with the best anyway (except maybe Kohl), so I'd place my bets on Thomas Dekker for it.

Speaking of Pereiro, who are the most likely GC wannabes (both legit GC guys and hangers on like Periero) who might find themselves in Oscar's position last year, of being down a ton after the Alps?  (Remember Popo almost acheived Pereiro's comeback the stage before.)

In other words who's most likely to lose the GC race before the 1st TT unless gifted by the field/takes advantage of the tactical battle up front to slide back into contention?

From VN:

"My condition is much better than this time last year," he said. "Before I retire from cycling I would at least like to be on the podium of the Tour."

WTF is that?!? the guy's 27. This is the kind of thing guys say when they're hitting mid-30s and haven't accomplished their dreams. Rogers should be talking about a podium NOW and a win sometime in the next five years. Dude, think big!!