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Prologue Preview - Who can win it?

Obviously, this has been one of the most hyped up prologue races in some time. With the Tour starting in London, there's a real shot of a British rider winning it, something that hasn't been wholly true for the French in quite some time (although, Moreau did win it a few years ago).

So, on with the contenders, the dark horses, and the others who might stand a decent chance. First, the Time Trial specialists:

Bradley Wiggins

What's he got going for him? A big Dauphine win in the Prologue there, as well as a TT win in the Four Days of Dunkirk.
What's he got against him? Well, remember Levi last year? If Brad peaked too early, he could be in a bad spot come tomorrow. He's also a pursuit rider, which could make the longer course tough on him.

David Millar
He's coming in with a Vuelta stage win from last year, this year's Paris-Nice prologue, and some decent TT results throughout the season. That said, he didn't do as well as some expected in the Dauphine, but he's been priding himself on the "Bad Dauphine, Good Tour" principle. He's better on the longer stuff than Wiggins, but on a fairly non-technical course, who knows?

Fabian Cancellara
The World TT champion. He came out storming in the Tour de Suisse after his lackluster classics campaign, and is the bookies' dead-on favorite. Probably mine, too, since he can ride any sort of course.

Dave Zabriskie
The World TT Silver Medalist, and now long-standing 3rd place finisher in many time trials. If this were, like in 2004, a full-length Time Trial, I'd put my money on him. He does better on long time trials, so I'd not expect him to take a win, but perhaps a Top 5 or Top 10 in this stage. Look for Dave Z to shine in the two ITTs later in the race.

You also can't discount some of the national TT champs, like Benoit Vaugrenard of FDJ and Bert Grabsch of T-Mobile. I'd go with Vaugrenard first, since Grabsch had a well-depleted field

Now, with the sprinters

Thor Hushovd
Easily the best Time Trialist of the sprinters, he hasn't been showing great form yet this whole season, but I expect he'll come out roaring again this year for the Tour. I can see a Top 10, maybe Top 5, so he can try to take the Maillot jaune in the first week.

Daniele Bennati
I wouldn't have considered him until the Tour de Suisse, but considering he got 2nd, 3 seconds back from Cancellara (which is probably a lot more places down in London), with decent form, he could have the same thing in mind as Thor. Don't see him winning, but he will be close to the top.

Tom Boonen
Certainly not a winner, but he'll be up there for the same reason as these two: He wants yellow again this year (like every rider does), and he can get it with good sprints if he does a great prologue.

The domestiques/non-GC men

Big George
Second place in last year's prologue, and almost always in the top few spots each year. He's a great prologue rider, and should be able to pull off a fabulous ride once again. That said, I don't know if he has the motivation to win, but one never knows with George.

Vladimir Gusev
The reigning Russian TT champion. He shocked a lot of people in the Deutschland Tour last year when he won that Prologue, and has consistently been in the top 5-10 of any sort of TT result of his that I've seen. He's got good form, as shown by his amazing Tour de Suisse stage win, where he was alone for 20 km, gapping the peloton and Chris Horner more and more.

Geraint Thomas
A dark horse to possible take the win. He's on the Great Britain Team Pursuit squad that took a world championship. His only TT race that I could find, which was in Portugal in April, was pretty bad, but I'd bet he's going to have a huge home field advantage, which may (or may not) help. I expect either a burnout, or a great result for a 21 year old.

Stefan Schumacher
One of the strongmen in the peloton today, he can climb, time trial, and even ride the cobbles. He's had some decent showings in TTs, but mostly has been recovering from the spring. That said, he'll probably be the best man for Gerolsteiner in the prologue and ITTs. His ENECO Tour and Tour de Pologne results from last year are probably good reasons to put him near the top (at least, moreso than this year's results)

And, of course, the GC men.

Vino
A lot's been said about him, in the mountains, but he's a world-class time trialist, so he should do well in this race. Consistent TT results all season, from Tirreno-Adriatico to the Dauphine.

Andreas Kloden
See Vino. One of the best time trialists of the GC men. 2nd in the Tour de Suisse TT.

Andrei Kasheckin
Same as those two, really. Good result in the Dauphine TT helps him a lot.

Levi Leipheimer
Winner of the Tour of California prologue and TT, the Tour de Georgia TT, and a top 5 finisher in what was an otherwise lackluster Dauphine. He's going to hit his form well, which probably means he'll be strong tomorrow in London.

Thomas Dekker
Arguably the strongest Time Trialist on the Rabobank squad. He's proven himself a lot this season after a freakish 2006 Tirreno-Adriatico win. He's better in the long TTs, but I certainly expect a decent showing from little Dekker.

There's others besides these few that I wouldn't want to discount, as well. Most of CSC can pull off a mean time trial, including Stuey and Jens. In addition to that, Discovery Channel also has some who have ridden well in TTs this year, such as Egoi Martinez and Yaroslav Popovych (well... if you don't include the disastrous Giro one). I also wouldn't discount Moreau, Il Falco, Stef Clement, Karpets, Rik Verbrugghe, and a lot of others who I didn't mention for whatever reason.

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Magnus Bäckstedt might be a good outsider
He's done well in prologues before and he's obviously in great form, taking the national championship last.......... oh no thats right, Liqiugas left him at home as first reserve. Stupid itali.......

I gotta leave this bitterness behind me and start enjoying the Tour.

by Jens on Jul 6, 2007 9:54 AM EDT   0 recs

That's right
Besides, Kjell Carlstrom is my pick to win tomorrow.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jul 6, 2007 10:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Of course, he's probably leader on your VDS-team
Seeing as he is such a winning-machine!
Good luck to you and "Va fa Parigi" (?) ,by the way.

by Jens on Jul 6, 2007 10:59 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks
Although I'm changing course. We're Luck of Lucien now.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jul 6, 2007 12:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Savoldelli
is my darkhorse pick for the prologue.  A more technical course would suit him better, but he's pretty good on any type of prologue, and his Giro tt win shows he's got the power for a flat, fast course like this one.
Eleven Nation Army: Ready to get rich off the other teams' lunch money

by Tifosa on Jul 6, 2007 1:10 PM EDT   0 recs

Alas
he's been ill this week.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jul 6, 2007 1:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Cancellara
He's won his last three ITTs, though all three in Switzerland, where he was last seen reducing the Nats field to screaming jelly. Not enough turns to slow him down. But the other pure power dudes will have a chance.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jul 6, 2007 1:40 PM EDT   0 recs

my money is on Cance too
He seems to be right on form at the right time. He handles any TT course well.

I haven't seen much of Millar this year. Super motivation can also be super pressure. Hushovd has had a crummy season so far--either hitting the tarmack or sick.

Looks like the weather will be excellent, if the current sunshine on Wimbledon holds.

Has anyone else noticed how many competitions Moreau intends to win: the GC, the polka-dot jersey, the prologue. Maybe he's not that focused?

-K-

by KevinK on Jul 6, 2007 1:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Awww- he's excited!
Great to see Moreau so excited before the race, like a little kid at Christmas.  After he gets toasted in the prologue he'll start to focus.

Prologue's gotta be Cancellara's to lose.  

by ursula on Jul 6, 2007 3:10 PM EDT   0 recs

Haven't seen
anyone mention J.I. Gutierrez... Could easily end up on the podium on saturday.
Don't even have him on my squad, though. :-)

by DZI on Jul 6, 2007 6:13 PM EDT   0 recs

The Buffalo!
When is the last time a Spaniard won a time trial in France? Do we have to go back to Big Mig?
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jul 6, 2007 6:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Perhaps I'm not wearing my irony detector...
I feel compelled to point out that Jose Enrique Gutierrez Cataluna of Team LPR and OP infamy is the Bufalo.

Caisse D'Espargne's Jose Ivan Gutierrez Palacios is another dude. He doesn't have a top GC result, but he also hasn't been implicated in any doping scandals. He nipped Cancelara for the Silver at the 2005 world ITT championships and finished 3rd behind Cance and Benatti at the Tour de Suisse prologue last month.

Of course, whenever I feel compelled to be a stickler and point out things like this, I've either not detected the irony in the earlier post or missed the point entirely, so apologies in advance if my head is lodged in an anatomically improbable locale.

PS When discussing the Guttierez of similar names, we shouldn't forget the bufalo's brother,

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Jul 6, 2007 7:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Whoops
I'm physically incapable of keeping these guys separate in my mind. It's a brain chemistry defect.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jul 6, 2007 8:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Forgot he was racing
And... didn't know too much about him.

by BDBrian on Jul 6, 2007 6:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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