Chaos in the Peloton: Situation Is Excellent

by Chris... on Oct 1, 2008 1:17 AM EDT in News

Reports out of France that the French Anti-Doping Agency AFLD plan to re-test some 30 blood samples collected this summer have cast a pretty major shadow over Cycling and the recent World Championships. Rumors have been flying all week about the number and possible names of the involved, and while the rumors contain no allegations of doping, the riders are at least being looked at for traces of the long-lasting EPO variant CERA.

If the tests come back positive, Cycling will be dragged right back through the mud again, just as signs of its resurgence have become unmistakeable. To us fans, it's the nightmare that never seems to end, and if big names are declared positive, only the worldwide economic collapse or upcoming presidential election would save us from the media feeding frenzy to be unleashed on the sport. In short, it'll be another winter of articles declaring the death of Cycling.

Truth is, though, the next purge may be the last. There are a few aspects of this AFLD scheme that could put a massive broadside in whatever remains of Cycling's doping regime. First, the fact that a CERA test now exists for blood samples means that this one particular product can no longer be advertised to potential cheaters as a fool-proof way to beat the system.

Second, and more importantly, the fact that a test now exists and is being applied after the fact is profound. Huge credit to the Tour de France and the AFLD for doing what races historically -- up to and including the 2008 Giro d'Italia -- are loathe to do: double back and test the legitimacy of race results. The message to potential cheaters is doubly terrifying, saying that not only will we no longer look the other way once the race is over, but we might have a test for something you recently didn't think we had a test for.

The message is that virtually no doping regime is safe. If Dr. Evil hooks you up with the new shit, how do you know that the day after you pump it into your system, someone won't announce a new test for it? Maybe some races will continue to look for ways to avoid testing, but if you set foot in France, how can you ever sleep knowing they have a sample of your blood? Finally, with the biological passports charting changes in your blood, how can you ever expect to go unnoticed again?

The next month or so might get ugly -- or should I say, even uglier -- but if people don't dismiss Cycling as a going concern, it's possible this could be the last round of chemo zapping the cancerous tumors still hidden in the sport.

... Or, put another way, what Toto said.

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Retrocative Punishment

Is – I think – your main point about this being a new age in stopping dopers.

I hope you are correct.

But will retro punishments begin to consistently include huge financial penalties – for example returning 100% of prize money /salary.

Because if the retro-active penalty is less than the initial reward …. it still won’t be enough.

And the 2008 Giro is a recent counter-example where it appears that cheating (CERA?) paid off – and there will likely NOT be retro-active testing.

PS – did the DVD arrive? I await your counter-review :)

by cyclingchallenge on Oct 1, 2008 2:24 AM EDT 0 recs

Got it

thanks! I think it’s on tap for tomorrow’s trainer ride. Can’t wait.

As for retro punishment, my theory assumes dopers live mostly in fear of being caught, not in the specific penalties. That may not be true for the gregarios but I do think expulsion and disgrace is what bothers the top guys. So if they can’t be sure they’ll get busted or not, it’s as good a deterrent as the assurance they will get nabbed.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Oct 1, 2008 2:33 AM EDT up 0 recs

returning 100% of prize money /salary.

You can only do that if back then riders have been told that’s the penalty they face. For instance, since 2007, PT riders have waivered a year’s salary if caught. The UCI is invoicing convicted junkies and they won’t get their licence back at the end of their suspension until they pay that fine.

pounding along in three ratios like a sonata
like a Ritter with pommelled scrotum atra cura on the step
Botticelli from the fork down pestling the transmission
tires bleeding voiding zeep the highway

by fmk on Oct 1, 2008 4:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

Risk/reward

I think the prospect of the future loss of two years’ salary for cyclists, plus decreased earning potential for the remainder of their career, represents enough of a financial hammer over dopers. Athletes operate in a short window of earning potential—-about ten years. Any loss of earning time, and any decrease in the amounts earned later in a successful career, definitely hurt. A lot. Ask David Millar or Iban Mayo.

The big problem in the current regime is the efficacy of testing. In high-penalty, low-efficiency testing regimes, everyone dopes if the dope works (according to game theory studies). Since it is politically difficult to lower penalties, increasing the likelihood of catching dopers through retroactive testing should help catch dopers.

by Softie on Oct 1, 2008 8:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Unless it's Lance according to a professor in France

There was the quote last week from (I believe it was Pat McQuaid talking about Ricco, sorry) saying that the rider had been invoiced for his annual salary as penalty, but it hadn’t been paid yet.
I hope you’re right about the effects of any newly announced positives, and that the sport will be clean. One way or another, I’ll be glad when the retest results are announced. Hey – wouldn’t it be funny if they maintain privacy until B samples of the blood are tested?

But a professor in France apparently thinks that Lance “plans to use "an arsenal of doping products” in the next year. I included the Google translation.

http://www.marca.com/edicion/marca/ciclismo/es/desarrollo/1170869.html

LANCE RETURNS TO RECEIVE ATTACKS FROM FRANCE
Dine: “If Armstrong wins the Tour, will doped”
JORDAN TO VÍCTOR Madrid Lance Armstrong will grow up stunted. Once it has confirmed his return to the competition the U.S. is beginning to see that their enemies have not forgotten about him and that he still waiting with the knife between his teeth. The first to appear on stage has been Gerard Dine, a professor of biotechnology at the Ecole Central de Paris, who has come to insinuate that the return of heptacampeón of the Tour de France will be under “an arsenal of doping products.” Once again the most ferocious attacks against the credibility of the Texan rider came from France.

The statements of Dine out in the digital page of Gazzetta dello Sport, have been issued as a prophecy, but Lance is a direct attack on the waterline of the Texan. “I am sure that will win his eighth Tour de France, but will do so thanks to a huge quantity of banned”, accused the French, who went on to say that "ten years has been evading controls and good will have segurose care can continue to do so. He has always shielded her profile doctor and his return will again be protected by a retinue of doctors from the highest level to enable it to continue avoiding the controls, but this could only be done with a real biological passport. "

by next year on Oct 1, 2008 2:40 AM EDT 0 recs

um

this is kind of nuts. a huge qty of banned substances? Whatever.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Oct 1, 2008 2:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, BS.

by dheadrick on Oct 1, 2008 9:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

The sport won't be purged...

…until admitted dopers in management positions (like Riis) are told to go away.

by Chief Commissaire on Oct 1, 2008 2:49 AM EDT 0 recs

Bye bye Vaughters. Bye bye Stapleton. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. We don’t need your type round here. We’re doin a good enough job of cleaning the sport up without the like of you.

pounding along in three ratios like a sonata
like a Ritter with pommelled scrotum atra cura on the step
Botticelli from the fork down pestling the transmission
tires bleeding voiding zeep the highway

by fmk on Oct 1, 2008 4:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

Excellent comments Chris..

..cheaters are within reach. More feds and organisations are trying to do the right thing. There’s hope.

by Celestn on Oct 1, 2008 2:55 AM EDT 0 recs

Thanks

Yeah, hope. I probably have more of it than I should. But still…

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Oct 1, 2008 3:01 AM EDT up 0 recs

What I'd like to see

is additional sample from all tested riders set aside for a number of years for future testing. So if a test for something is developed a year (or whatever) after a substance or method is banned, riders can be tested retroactively.

Of course every case would get Landised but I think it would be an even better deterrent.

by rocketpress on Oct 1, 2008 7:05 AM EDT 0 recs

Landised

Hey, where’s Floyd now? Not to dredge up his case, but he’s basically had his career kneecapped, and blew tons of money in the process. So his saga still contains plenty of deterrent.

I like the # years. At some point I suppose statutes of limitations kick in, but in a lot of crimes it’s at least 5 years. Anything that expands the likelihood of cheaters getting caught, that makes riders think they’ll be discovered, increases the deterrence.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Oct 1, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

Frozen Samples

This is already being done. HAs been being done for the thick end of a decade now. Beijing Olympics was proud of the fact that it will catch some cheats eight years into the futire. Except there’s two problems. The first is that, short of two Tour-related incidents – 1999 and 2008 – no one’s done retro testing. The second is that there are questions about the efficiency of retro testing, of how a sample behaves and whether it’s a true positive or not. The fear of retro testing is a stick that’s been used to beat the junkies with for quite some time time. This may be the first year it’s actually going to hurt them.

It might be worth questioning the delay between announcing these tests and actually carrying them out. I’m guessing there was a legal challenge of some sort, hence the need to make sure they were water tight before proceeding.

pounding along in three ratios like a sonata
like a Ritter with pommelled scrotum atra cura on the step
Botticelli from the fork down pestling the transmission
tires bleeding voiding zeep the highway

by fmk on Oct 1, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

l'equipe update on this today

According to a report in l’equipe today, there are ten positives. The tests are reportedly complete, and the names will be announced sometime between Friday and Monday.

by gavia on Oct 1, 2008 11:15 AM EDT 0 recs

OK then

that was fast.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Oct 1, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

si...

I saw a conflicting report that only three will be available that quickly, with the other seven later next week. But we should have at least some concrete confirmed news soon.

by gavia on Oct 1, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

yep, saw 3 names by Friday too

by lyne on Oct 1, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Let the leaks begin!

by dheadrick on Oct 1, 2008 10:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't think this will be the last...

The sport still has a ways to go before we can expect these scandals to go away. There are riders and teams who will still try to game the system, still gamble that they can get away with cheating.

But the speedy effort to develop the blood test for CERA, the heavy out of competition testing, these are important steps forward. For the moment, things are going in a good direction. Hopefully, it will continue.

by gavia on Oct 1, 2008 11:26 AM EDT 0 recs

I agree...despite all that has gone on, a ton of riders still cheat and will continue to.

We have heard it will stop since the deaths of italians and dutch in the early nineties – surely death would be enough of a deterrent – it wasn’t.

As wacked out as Lemond is and sounds – he is right about testing baselining power output and looking for spikes. Plus there is still not a test for blood doping with ones own blood.

by humbug1 on Oct 1, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

the power thingy

Apparently, Garmin is going to start trying to something like the power analysis that Lemond described. That is, to try to track not only physiological markers but also power output across the season. That would be some very interesting data, and I think he’s right that it would be very revealing. I think it would also make it that much harder for teams to say oooh, I had no idea our riders were doping, who us? we pure as driven snow, blah blah.

But yes, many will still try to game the system. The goal is simply to make it as hard as possible to do so.

by gavia on Oct 1, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

should read

trying to do something like… oopsy.

by gavia on Oct 1, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

hm

How are they tracking power output? From race data? Seems like if a rider knows he’s being watched, he can submit non-suspicious results.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Oct 1, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sandbagging

is a time-honored technique

by Jimbo... on Oct 1, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't know but

the latest Garmin cycling device the “Edge 705” will read power from certain power metres

it’d be a good tie in if this is how they track power

by cyclingchallenge on Oct 1, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

that is very interesting

as a geek, I do wonder how they would do this. fascinating stuff from a purely scientific view. Heck might be time to crack open some books again.

by lyne on Oct 1, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Doesn't Damsgaard argue that he can catch doping with ones own blood?

Not in the sense that he can run a specific test but rather that he can identify the irregular values that result as suspicious and outside the parameters that he has set up as normal.

Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets

by Jens on Oct 1, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes...

Dams has said that while his riders might use doping practices of various sorts – like blood doping – his monitoring systems make it all-but-impossible for them to benefit, because they have to stay within the baseline parameters. He’s always been pretty clear that he can’t guarantee absolutely that there is no doping on his teams, but rather that the riders aren’t getting much in the way of benefit.

It’ll be interesting to hear his analysis of the situation should any of the CERA results in fact come from CSC. I’d expect him to be pretty forthright about what he missed, if so.

by gavia on Oct 1, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

I just hope the VDS finishes

before they release the results. I’d like to finish with a clean team. That way I can sleep at night.

by brunopitton on Oct 1, 2008 11:36 AM EDT 0 recs

"Truth is, though, the next purge may be the last."

Wish I could be as optimistic as you are, but I just don’t think that it will be the last.

For me the major question that still needs to be answered is: “Has there truly been a shift in the culture itself of the peloton?” Until that happens, DS, doctors, soigneurs, riders,… will try to circumvent the doping rules using any and all methods available be it pot belge, EPO, HGH, genetic manipulation, testosterone patches,…..

by lyne on Oct 1, 2008 12:26 PM EDT 0 recs

+1

When will riders who are pissed at the cheats outnumber those who believe “a man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do”?

Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets

by Jens on Oct 1, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

VO2max and power output variations..

Should be the spine of the biological passport. Irrefutable, cheap and humane.
Really hope Lemong will have his way.
Everyone in the community should push really hard for that.
I heard Heulot’s new team will mainly base its AD program on those parameters.

by Celestn on Oct 1, 2008 1:25 PM EDT 0 recs

ok, but folks

what counts as a spike and a suspicious variation?

For example, I posted a 5% increase in av watts from our August to September 10 mile time trials. I suspect that even at my age I could get close to a 10% improvement (i.e. add another 5% . . .). I doubt that would raise eyebrows, but what would?

by R Mc on Oct 1, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Watts

I think you could use wattage spikes as a way to justify further scrutiny, but that’s it.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Oct 1, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

A combination of the 2..

..and the addition of a biological profile would certainly do.
According to Vayer or Werner Franke, It’s pretty acceptable to have up to 15% increase in both values between the end of vacation and the peak of form. Everything over that would mean at least a license’s suspension and further tests, at most according to other parameters, an indictement (yes, criminal case)..
Even right now, we have guys with 25% increase in VO2M and +30% in watts.
A full blown Armstrong used to develop 500watts, 50 more than Indurain in 96 (5kg heavier and surely as medicated). 100 more watts than Hinault in top form.
The French fed has been on the right track there, the only problem is the frequency of the sampling. 5X a year average is not enough, especially off season.
Some shaddy French guys (one or 2 only) are actually training in winter almost as they would in the Spring not to let the values go down. It has not been very effective because they got second hand problems (recup and exhaustion essentially) but they can partly falsify the datas.

New law, no training on vacation and long hair for everyone (Gav will be happy). Ha..

by Celestn on Oct 1, 2008 8:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

lol :-)

And yes, this makes perfect sense. There should be some variation in the physiological numbers between peak and non-peak form. But these should also be predictable and within certain boundaries – in the same way that biological markers like blood values fluctuate over time with training and environmental factors.

500 watts. That’s just silly.

by gavia on Oct 1, 2008 9:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

check VN - that guy who is coming back may have his 99 samples retested too

according to AFLD.

by humbug1 on Oct 1, 2008 1:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Love it...

they’re offering to have the sample sre-tested for the sake of transparency – lol

by lyne on Oct 1, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Who would believe the test results though?

Those samples have been sitting for almost 10 years in a French lab with questionable chain-of-custody and storage allegations against it. I wouldn’t believe any test results on HW (or anyone else for that matter), either positive or negative, from samples in that situation. Those samples are a dead horse, they can’t beat it anymore.

"The world is a mess and I just need to rule it." Dr. Horrible

by bethie on Oct 1, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

who says they've had questionable chain of custody?

by lyne on Oct 1, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

oops didn't mean to sound so belligerent as I am truly curious about the source of this opinion (fact?)

the only source I remember saying this was the Landis camp

by lyne on Oct 1, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Indeed

it was the Landis defense that alleged the questionable chain-of-custody, I believe that was alleged because the label on Floyd’s test sample was whited out and written over. No one contested that happened. The way I see it, just because Floyd lost his case doesn’t make the chain-of-custody allegation false.

"The world is a mess and I just need to rule it." Dr. Horrible

by bethie on Oct 1, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Correction

It was not the label on the test sample, it was the actual chain-of-custody documents that were whited out.

"The world is a mess and I just need to rule it." Dr. Horrible

by bethie on Oct 1, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

Operation Puerto

is now closed:
http://www.marca.com/edicion/marca/ciclismo/es/index.html

by LittleOldLady on Oct 1, 2008 2:20 PM EDT 0 recs

So now the CAS adjournement ceases and the ball’s back int he UCI’s court.

pounding along in three ratios like a sonata
like a Ritter with pommelled scrotum atra cura on the step
Botticelli from the fork down pestling the transmission
tires bleeding voiding zeep the highway

by fmk on Oct 1, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up 0 recs