Pick Your Winner: Giro Edition
by PopUp Rolen
on Nov 18, 2008 2:11 PM EST
It's never too early, especially in an excruciatingly long off season, to start throwing out half-baked predictions about the 2009 season. We've already dished on SamSan's schedule and dissected Astana's plans for GT dominance.
How about we start picking favorites? With Menchov's recent announcement that he was riding this year's Centenary Giro, and already impressive field grows stronger. So you've got $100 to place a bet: who's your winner?
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What does this say about the the current state of cycling?
Two guys who haven’t raced in two years or more are garnering 94% of the vote.
by PopUp Rolen on Nov 18, 2008 5:45 PM EST 0 recs
I think what it mainly shows
is that the two best grand tour talents of the current generation of riders are Basso and Contador, and only one of them will be at the Giro.
There are seven grand-tour winners in this field, but other than Basso, the rest are either a few years past their prime (Armstrong, Simoni), or looking like one-off grand tour winners who are really classics guys (Cunego, Di Luca), or likely to ride the Giro only for training (Sastre, Mechov).
by Tifosa on
Nov 18, 2008 8:15 PM EST
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The way I picked Basso
and the way I could se Armstrong win is:
1) They return in top form. I find that more likely for Basso.
2) They probably will have the strongest teams. Not only do the teams help in the mountains but the time gaps in that first TTT has been quite telling the last few years. Basso, Di Luca, and Contador all rode strong TTTs compared to some of their rivals. In the list above that helps them vs Van Den Broeck, Menchov, Di Luca, Sastre, Pozzovivo, and Simoni
3) Both Basso and Armstrong, if on form, will ride strong ITTs too. That helps them vs Cunego, Sastre, Pozzovivo, Van Den Broeck, and Pellizotti
4) We aren’t so sure of Nibali in the high mountains- or Di Luca either.
So maybe we are overestimating both Basso’s and Armstrong’s ability to return to form and personally I don’t think Armstrong will get all the way back. (I’m thinking Basso is more likely to.) When I put in my vote for Basso I surely don’t think its a slam dunk. I want to see the course too.
I could make a case for the others winning… well not so much for Nibali, Pozzovivo, Van Den Broeck, Bruseghin, or Simoni as its hard for me to see them doing more than podium, but definitely for Pellizotti, Menchov, Sastre, and Di Luca depending on how the course shakes out.
It will be interesting to see how Pellizotti and Basso work together.
by ursula on Nov 18, 2008 6:46 PM EST 0 recs
As much as I hate to see it...
HWMNBN is definitely going to be putting some people in pain!
CRUCIATUS!!!
Racing for Victory and Free Beer!
by DemonCats on Nov 18, 2008 6:54 PM EST 0 recs
Why is everyone saying HWMNBN?!?
How which may not be named? Don’t get a clue out it
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
by Frinking on
Nov 19, 2008 12:50 PM EST
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HeWhoMustNotBeNamed.
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
by nikki on
Nov 19, 2008 1:55 PM EST
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If you read harry potter in some language other than English, what's the abbreviation?
Go check your….kid’s….books [grin] and report back. How do they render “he who must not be named” in your lingo?
(YES, there probably are better sites for this.)
by JFS_PGH on
Nov 20, 2008 11:16 AM EST
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HWMNBN:
French: Celui-Dont-On-Ne-Doit-Pas-Prononcer-Le-Nom (roughly “He whose name you/we/one must not speak”)
Italian: Colui-Che-Non-Deve-Essere-Nominato
Swedish: Han-som-inte-f岭n䭮as-vid-namn
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
by nikki on
Nov 20, 2008 1:02 PM EST
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In Dutch
Hij-Die-Niet-Genoemd-Mag-Worden..
It’s like.. Hehow you not speak off..
It’s my best shot.. Not exactly the right translation.. And yes..
The book is mine..
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
by Frinking on
Nov 20, 2008 5:11 PM EST
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other...
Heinous, I know, but what the heck, it’s free—-
Astana is re-banned from the Tour and Contador’s anger and defiance quotient make him beat the socks off everybody else, Armstrong included.
Contador.
by Steno on Nov 19, 2008 2:16 AM EST 0 recs
Head = Basso, Heart = Simoni
Logically I just can’t go pass Basso. Considering factors such as proven TT ability, big Mountain ability, strength of team, and probability that he will be motivated and arrive with this singular focus; I have to go with Basso.
That said, I have this vision, it is a little fuzzy, it doesn’t quite add up and it seems to defy logic; but it involves Simoni riding away from the group on one of the big climbs, HWMNBN being isolated in the chase group, the chase group not wanting to work with him (for obvious reasons) and him slowly but surely losing his cool until there is a wee little meltdown on the road.
All the while a true senior statesman of the sport is up the road riding into a spectacular, and unexpected stage win that sees him gain enough time so as to secure the Pink jersey.
Oh, and this may sound bitter, but in the post stage press conference, Gibo makes some reference to apples :-)
by muk on Nov 19, 2008 5:57 AM EST 0 recs
Good one
However I do think that Astana will be bringing a really good team to the Giro again and the idea that HWMNBN might be isolated… um no, not gonna happen unless his form is really off and someone else takes the lead for that team.
by ursula on
Nov 19, 2008 1:33 PM EST
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Keep logic outta this.
In my defense I did describe this as a vision that was a little fuzzy and that did not add up.
However, if you insist on introducing logic, then sadly I agree with you. Team Astana couldn’t help but field a strong line up, and the chances of HWMNBN being isolated are very slim (has that ever happpened – post ’96?).
Then again this is cycling and stranger things have happened, so I live in hope….
by muk on
Nov 20, 2008 6:44 AM EST
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Basso will be the man to beat
but for the rest it depends on how mountainous the course is and we still don’t know for sure. I reckon that starting in the North before the snow has properly gone could make it less of a climbers’ course. Those couple of weeks in May are the weeks when a lot of it thaws, so Cunego and DiLuca might get a Giro a lot more favourable to them.
by Monty. on Nov 19, 2008 6:41 AM EST 0 recs
Cataldo is the name..`
Should have won last year.. But he didn’t so he is targetting this years Giro.. And if for some reason he’s not gonna make it? Uuhmm.. Ba(h)sso
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
by Frinking on Nov 19, 2008 12:53 PM EST 0 recs
Hi all
Why is Basso getting so much credit here? He’s a confessed doper. Like all the other dopers (Zulle, Virenque, etc.) his performance, especially in the third week, will probably decline and leave him with little hope of winning the race. All his past achievement are tainted. I’m going to predict either Armstrong or Cunego.
by La3000 on Nov 20, 2008 11:56 AM EST 0 recs
When you put it so directly it does seem odd
After all we got a good idea of what doping can do for you comparing Sella with the rest of the field in last year’s Giro, so there’s no reason why we shouldn’t assume that Basso’s dominance was for the same reason. It’s a really tough call to make. Maybe it’s because the Giro has been so much of a dopers’ race in recent years that the form book means nothing and the best call you can make is by going back to a time when you think they were all equally doped. It’ss be an interesting race but I wouldn’t put any money on the table myself.
by Monty. on
Nov 21, 2008 5:56 PM EST
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that was my theory too.
Leaving…um… two (2) other people thinking the same way. Or if you voted Lance, there are three mystery “Cunegati” lurking about.
Di Luca is also a recovering “oil” baby. Sastre and Menchov are both, to me, either at or past the peak rather than “about to peak,” though if one believes in predictive value of CQ graphs, Sastre is still heading up…as is Cunego (with 04 a fluke year, or something like that). I guess Sastre could. OK, I’m agnostic on Sastre vs. Cunego. Split votes?
by JFS_PGH on
Nov 22, 2008 8:45 PM EST
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Sastre is coming to the Giro to win
from CN:
“If I go to the Giro it will be so I can compete with the best. Once you’ve reached the goals you set for yourself in your sports career, you start looking for new ones. I have reached a series of objectives in the Tour as well as in the Vuelta, and the Giro can be a new motivation.” "
This should make things more fun, the Giro could be tremendous next year.
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
by Phil H. on Nov 20, 2008 12:10 PM EST 0 recs
Definitely interesting
If Sastre peaks for the Giro and goes for the win, I’d see him as a solid pick for a podium spot, and just below Basso and (possibly) Armstrong among the favorites for the win.
For Sastre, a lot would likely depend on what the cronos look like. He can’t time trial with Basso or a back-to-his-old-self Armstrong, but he should do at least as well in the cronos as Di Luca and Cunego, and he climbs better than either of those two.
Another advantage for Sastre is that he knows Basso very well, having been his chief mountain gregario in the 2006 Giro. I remember reading at the time that Sastre said he and Basso didn’t even have to speak on the climbs, because he could tell how Basso was feeling just by looking in his eyes.
by Tifosa on
Nov 20, 2008 6:09 PM EST
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Not if he's having a great day
than he should stare at Sastre the whole time they are climbing.
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
by Phil H. on
Nov 20, 2008 10:54 PM EST
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