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Spotlight '08: CSC-Saxo Bank

This project has been evolving slowly, in part because I'm a little unsure how interesting some of the team reviews can be. But that won't be a problem with today's subject: Team CSC/Saxo Bank-IT Factory. As usual, we start with accountability, in the form of my earlier Back Pocket Preview:

Attributes: A roster that would make most DS's drool uncontrollably. Generally healthy history and outlook. Admired widely for almost everything but Riis' riding career. Jens! Potential winners of every event they attend. Poster-boy Nails O'Grady.

On Further Review: Eh, Jens! Voigt is starting to show his age, or at least is getting overworked too early in the year. Stuart O'Grady rode admirably in defense of his Paris-Roubaix title, before injuries and reduced roles intervened. Instead, the story of their roster is that it remains as admirable as ever, but the focus is shifting rapidly to the next generation. In general, their roster consists of guys born before 1980 who declined last year, and guys born after 1/1/80 who improved. Old and in the way: O'Grady, Arvesen, Julich, Gustov, Ljungkvist, Voigt, McCartney, and Nicki Sorensen. Young and busting out: Cancellara, Bak, Breschel, Larsson, Chris Sorensen, Van Goolen. [Kolobnev was a push; Haedo and the Schlecks slipped a tad; Kroon, Blaudzun and Sastre improved against the odds.]

Now, statistically speaking two seasons isn't a definitive trend, and the exceptions include the biggest names on the team. But the latter point proves nothing: captains go up and down for any number of reasons, such as Andy Schleck playing support at the Tour rather than winning the Giro. Overall, aside from the captains, the team is transitioning nicely to Riis Cycling 2.0, led by a new generation of studs named Fabian, Andy, Matti, Chris-Anker and Henrik Gustav. The older guys are mostly very relevant, and the change is more gradual -- even natural -- than dramatic, but is unmistakeable nonetheless. Oh, and in their transition year they still won the team title.

Problems: Their grand tour GC chances probably represents their weakest element. Young guys saddled with high expectations. Someday they'll get outbid by wealthier teams for their top riders. A bit light on pure sprinters.

On Further Review: More of the same? It's funny, Riis's charges won a grand tour for the second time in the history of CSC, and once again the winner was out the door before the champagne went flat. Last time it was Ivan Basso being cast into the ether from the OP dragnet; this time it was the tenuous Riis-Sastre relationship collapsing under duress. Still, they pulled off a Tour for the ages, and Sastre's departure does nothing to tarnish a brilliant team victory. In fact, with Andy Schleck ripening nicely, Sastre's exit clarifies Riis' path to more grand tour success. Also, Breschel gives him another big, formerly elusive prize: a homegrown, serious sprinting threat.

Key Rider(s): Fränk Schleck. After Carlos Sastre, who's turning 33 this year, Schleck the elder is next in line for grand tour captaincy, assuming his kid brother needs a bit more seasoning (let's be reasonable here, people). He didn't get much love last year, with no mega-wins in April and some bad days in the mountains of the Tour, but even his bad years are good years: 8th-ranked in CQ points at 1525, both personal highs. Maybe Le Tour isn't his bag, but with the right program he's got a lot of wins in those legs.

On Further Review: Fränk did his job, scoring oodles of points for the team tally, but I wonder if he hasn't lost his job, or certain aspects of it, in the process? At the Tour, he proved once more that he's in the Valverde/Cunego class of three-week riders: good but highly unlikely to ever win. In the classics, he proved once more that he's a solid guy who will always be there, but may well never win a sprint. He and Larsson seem to be headed in opposite directions after this year, and Kolobnev could easily take charge in the hilly classics as well -- particularly if the investigation into Fränk's Fuentes connection goes anywhere. Taken together, the Elder Schleck's stock is sinking fast enough to warrant a NYSE listing.

Key Moment: Hm, tough one. Cancellara at Flanders or Sastre at the Tour... either one would represent a spectacular breakthrough for a team with a lot of hardware already. But I wouldn't bet on either.

On Further Review: Well, Cancellara's Flemish season finished a distant second to his efforts on the Via Roma, so I think we can safely go with Sastre's Tour win. As I said above, even with Sastre leaving, the style in which the win was executed pretty much cements Riis' legacy as a great Director, or at least personnel manager (assuming the win reflects their balding, white braintrust more generally).

Passing Thought: 27 riders from 14 countries... and not a single Italian? Talk about blatant bias. Here's hoping Riis chokes on a herring.

On Further Review: Riis will never win a popularity contest, but I personally have a ton of respect for him. His style is a tad abrasive (cough), and his checkered past makes it easy to call him a hypocrite on doping issues. Fine. My take on him is that he truly doesn't care what people think of him; he's got a job of running a team in real-time, and is extremely effective in his focused way. He doesn't get sentimental about guys on their way out, he doesn't take to conversations about his own past. He, instead, just builds the best team for the most races and hopes their record will drown out any dissent. The result? He's completely turned over the sponsorship, using the usually-devastating loss of a loyal and generous sponsor to actually make a better situation: similar money (I think?) from Scandinavian investors.

It's not entirely unusual for a manager to become the lightning rod, and have that benefit the team. If Frank Schleck is ever reprimanded for doping (pre-2007), it will be another hit to Riis' image, but it will also redirect all of the negative attention from the team itself. Everyone will be talking about that bastard Riis, and to some extent Schleck (again, IF this goes anywhere). Meanwhile, with Rasmus Damsgard certifying the team's present compliance, they'll be flooding the peloton with young talented studs in every corner of Europe. The pressure and focus will be at least partly distracted from the real action and the current stable of riders. And once again, the results will speak for themselves.

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Great write-up!

The one person from this year that was noticeably absent was Haedo. I wonder what the reason is. Is it injury, distances of races, or what? He’s got speed in spades, so it must be something else. He’s still pretty young so he still has room for improvement. Or maybe the jump from Toyota to CSC sprinter is taking time. Maybe he has the same problem as Ivan Dominguez, can’t get over a hill to say his life. Anyone out there know what’s going on with him? As far as the rest of the team, they’re pretty damn loaded. I can’t wait until next year.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Nov 20, 2008 3:32 PM EST   0 recs

Haedo

It’s just crowded at the top, methinks.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Nov 20, 2008 4:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah and

CSC doesn’t commit to the bunch sprints like other teams leaving Haedo out by his lonesome.

Chris- We all love these write-ups. Don’t stop!

by ursula on Nov 20, 2008 4:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Haedo didn't have that bad of a year

he won 8 times this year and CSC doesn’t have any were near the leadout train that Cav and Boonen have for instance. I’d say he did pretty well this year and will probably do even better next year.

"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt

by Phil H. on Nov 20, 2008 4:33 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Next year

Won’t they be looking more to Breschel? Maybe I’m wrong about this… And of course there are races enough for both.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Nov 20, 2008 4:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I think they will both be counted on

for the sprints. I’d say if they are both in the same race then probably Breschel would be their first choice and haedo lead out, but as you said, there are plenty of races out there so I think Haedo can win even more than he did this year. Heck, Greipel won 14 times even though Cav is on his team.

"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt

by Phil H. on Nov 20, 2008 4:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Greipel

Tru dat, and CSC are every bit the globetrotters Columbia are.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Nov 20, 2008 5:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

There are sprints and there are sprints

I mean comparing, say, Cavendish’s wins vs Greipel’s is um almost like comparing apples to oranges considering the level of competition that each faces. Cav faces- and beats the lies of Freire, bennati, and Boonen. Greipel? Not so much.

Similarly with Haedo and (so far) Breschel. The CSC duo when they win, its at places like Denmark, Georgia, Philly, California, Star Electrolux, or the last stage of the Vuelta when Freire, Benna and Boonen had already left. I mean no offense but Greipel, Haedo, or Breschel, do not win at the Show.

 Not yet at least. There’s always next year. Until then, these guys carry the Alpha Sprinters’ jocks.

by ursula on Nov 20, 2008 6:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Don't forget stage 17 at the Giro

I mean how incredible was Greipel, how he just sprinted so much faster than Cav, who couldn’t catch him :)

"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt

by Phil H. on Nov 20, 2008 6:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I don't know if that's really true

They ride the way they’re told to ride. I don’t think that Haedo has really raced in many of the same races as Boonen and the like but from what I’ve seen, his acceleration is better than most of the others over short distances. I think much of it comes down to development and in the case of Haedo, he started from the bottom and had to work his way up, so he will no doubt develop further. As far as given ability, he’s on par with the majority of those you mentioned.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Nov 20, 2008 6:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

RE Haedo, I have a vague memory of reading an article this season

that Haedo was using this year, at the behest of Riis, to hone his skills in maneuvering within the Euro peloton; does anyone else recall reading that, too? I think he was a bit skittish within the peloton last year and he was tasked with becoming more comfortable riding effectively within the bunch, at higher speeds than he had previously been used to when racing on the US circuit w/ToyotaU?

Does that sound familiar to anyone else?

by Ruthann on Nov 20, 2008 7:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

vaguely, yes

I do have the sense that he was in “development” mode this year at the team, that he wasn’t burdened with winning races, so much as acclimating to the speeds, distances, and pack sizes in Europe.

by gavia on Nov 20, 2008 8:15 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I have that vague memory too

If so then we should see some better results this year- if he’s gotten more comfortable.

But lets see if he learned anything for this year. Those who believe might put him on their VDS teams as he won’t have a high cost.

by ursula on Nov 20, 2008 8:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wow! I guess I didn't realize that

It didn’t seem like he was taken to many races. As far as I can remember, Haedo has never really needed a train and that’s one reason that he got a ride with CSC, low maintenance. He’s got tons of talent and no doubt has many more wins in his legs. Someone below mentioned that he might play leadout for Breschel, but from what I’ve seen, he’s got more punch than Breschel, so that would be odd.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Nov 20, 2008 6:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

next year\s they will miss a lack of GT favourite, for sure.

Frank Schleck can do well in mountais but in crono i think not (even if he train hard)….even a podium in Tour i think he can’t. About Andy, for sure, but will take some more years.(2,3,4).

Hope for a upgrade from Goos in 2009, this season likely Haedo he was a bit overshadowed , maybe because Breschel shining. Before this season and in April, i hoped that Breschel will turn a classic men, in cobblestones, but now seems not. Or at least not only classic especialist, maybe he will be similiar to Boonen…who knows!

So in next Tours will be nice to see how Riis will take his team. If he continues to look only for gc, or bet in breakaways. With Astana in comand next year in Tour, almost for he have to bet in sprinters and early breakaways.

by semprenaroda on Nov 21, 2008 8:27 AM EST   0 recs

Andy

I don’t know, but he looks ready to me.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Nov 21, 2008 9:53 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

The Tour looks perfect for Andy next year

a lot of climbing, only 55k of ITT, and a strong team for the TTT. I would say if Andy is the leader, he would be one of my top 5 favorites.

"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt

by Phil H. on Nov 21, 2008 12:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Andy

It may take a few tries for him to really master grand tours, so if he doesn’t win this time, I will neither be surprised nor disappointed. But he seems bound to win sometime in the next few years, or at least push Contador to the brink.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Nov 21, 2008 1:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

He's already proven he can stay consistent over 3 weeks(Giro 2007)

and that’s the most important thing. I wouldn’t expect him to win next year either, but he can race for 3 weeks without slipping, unlike Valverde.

"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt

by Phil H. on Nov 21, 2008 1:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

i believe that he will win someday

but in next year (2 years max), really?Even the podium i think he can’t do.

Despite the profile in 2009 is good for him, because of the mountain and team time trial, there is Evans, Contador plus (Leipheimer or other Astana), Menchov. Not mention others like Kreuziger or even Vandevelde.

For me in next two years top 5 at maximum, but not podium….

I believe that Contador and Andy will dominating Grand Tours, and will have some nice tête-à-tête in future tours, but not so early.

by semprenaroda on Nov 21, 2008 6:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Disgruntled

My longest CSC post of the year, and nothing but silence from Sweden?

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Nov 21, 2008 4:43 PM EST   0 recs

Ah, Sweden

Heaven and Hell. Not the word you were looking for I guess.

by Monty. on Nov 21, 2008 7:04 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ohh Saxobank.. What can i say..

Bring on next year, I’m looking forward to seeing Fabian, Frank, Andy and the rest kick some you know what next year.. I’m going Frank or Andy TdF..
It will be an interesting year though…

Just waiting to see who coming Down Under..

by CycleGirl on Nov 22, 2008 9:07 AM EST   0 recs

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