Offseason Musings: What's More Likely

by ursula on Nov 26, 2008 2:27 PM EST

In one corner you have Oscar Freire, the sprinter par excellence who can climb a bit. Twice Milan-San Remo champion, Thrice World Road race champion. Won the Green Jersey at this year's Tour. Seemingly could win the Blue Jersey at the Vuelta anytime if he would just finish the race instead of doing more World prep. Has won several other Classic wins and individual stage victories, including three stage wins (and the points jersey) at this years' Tirreno-Adriatico against many major sprinters.

In the other corner you have Alejandro Valverde. This year's Liege-Bastogne-Liege, San Sebastian, and Dauphine Libere winner. Numerous other first places over the years, particularly in the hilly Ardennes. Has an unusually wide skill set combining climbing, sprinting, time trialing in a way that's unmatched by any other rider.

Both Freire and Valverde though have greater unfulfilled ambitions.

So the question I have is this: which will happen first:

1) valverde winning a Grand Tour or,

2) Freire winning a hilly classic: any of Flanders, Amstel, La Fleche, LBL, San Sebastian, or Lombardia?

Fill out the poll below and lets see some comments: totally wild assertions, accusations, whatever!

Poll

What's more likely to happen?

Valverde winning one of the Grand Tours

22 votes

Freire winning any of Flanders, Amstel, La Fleche, LBL, San Sebastian, or Lombardia

67 votes

Neither will happen EVER!!!!!!!

27 votes

116 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 13 comments |

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wins any of the followng:
Tour of California, Tour of Murcia, Castilla y Leon, Pays Basque, Giro d’Italia and Tour de France.
A conversation with Tom Danielson
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by lucybears on Nov 26, 2008 3:36 PM EST 0 recs

If Vino had been kicked out

for skipping his drug test at the 06 Vuelta, we wouldn’t have this poll.

If Valverde showed up in Flanders, he would beat Freire there too.

by Mr 60 Percent on Nov 26, 2008 3:59 PM EST 0 recs

Valverde Vuelta win more likely

Freire is one of my all-time favorite riders, and other than Simoni winning next year’s Giro, nothing would thrill me more than to see Oscarito win a hilly classic. I believe, however, that a Vuelta win by Valverde in the next few years is more likely.

If Friere does win one of the hilly classics, my guess is that it would be Flanders. I love Lombardia, Amstel, LBL, and La Fleche, but those races are not built for surprise winners. In recent years, those races have consistently been won by the guys you’d expect to win them: Bettini, Di Luca, Rebellin, Cunego, Valverde. Flanders, on the other hand, has had surprise winners for the last two years. That unpredictability is one of the things that makes Flanders my favorite of the monuments.

by Tifosa on Nov 26, 2008 4:26 PM EST 0 recs

Nah.. The cobbles are to much for the sensitive bum of Freire..

Think it’s more likely when he win the AGR.. Already finished top 10 there..

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Nov 27, 2008 12:30 PM EST up 0 recs

Oscarita

he’s great and all, but the competition at these hilly classics is getting worse for him, not better. One of these days, everyone will skip the Vuelta except Valverde, and he’ll get the win he earned two years ago.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Nov 26, 2008 4:26 PM EST 0 recs

I say neither

if one were to happen, I would say Oscarito. One needs only to have one great day to win a classic, and if Freire can be there in the end, with the lead group, then his sprinting skills can get him the W. The one classic I think he has the best chance to win is San Sebastian, not as much climbing, and a lot of flat after the Alto de Jaizkibel. But the top teams will know how good of a sprinter he is, so they will drive the pace and crack Freire, in the big classics. Valverde will be a top fav. at the Vuelta every year, and may be the top guy next year, if Bert doesn’t come, but he just keeps having that one horrible day. I know he came close in 06 but ever since then he has been disappointing. So I can see both happening but I will say that neither will.

"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt

by Phil H. on Nov 26, 2008 4:48 PM EST 0 recs

I think he has the best chance to win is San Sebastian

by semprenaroda on Nov 26, 2008 5:06 PM EST up 0 recs

San Sebastian for Oscar.

I wouldn’t have voted for Freire if San Sebastian hadn’t been included in the mix.

I think Valverde can win a GT, but it may take a few years, and he’ll need just the right type of parcours (no long TTs). I’m guessing Oscar has his hilly Classic in hand by then.

by The Team Chef on Nov 26, 2008 5:36 PM EST up 0 recs

Yeah either San Sebastian or Flanders for Oscarito

I love Oscar but honestly I have to say his rep as a climber is overrated. He has no chance at Lombardia, La Fleche, Amstel or LBL. If he tried harder at Flanders I might give him the nod in this wonderful poll but as it stands, its Valverde who stands the better chance.

by ursula on Nov 26, 2008 6:35 PM EST 0 recs

by Ryan_Liles on Nov 27, 2008 1:04 AM EST 0 recs

I see Don Ale is at it again over at CN:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2008/nov08/nov27news2

I do think he could win the Vuelta one year. He’s been close before and if certain other people don’t turn up and he actually concentrates, I don’t see why it’s quite so far fetched.

by Albertina on Nov 27, 2008 12:47 PM EST 0 recs