Offseason Musings: What's More Likely
by ursula on Nov 26, 2008 2:27 PM EST
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PrintIn one corner you have Oscar Freire, the sprinter par excellence who can climb a bit. Twice Milan-San Remo champion, Thrice World Road race champion. Won the Green Jersey at this year's Tour. Seemingly could win the Blue Jersey at the Vuelta anytime if he would just finish the race instead of doing more World prep. Has won several other Classic wins and individual stage victories, including three stage wins (and the points jersey) at this years' Tirreno-Adriatico against many major sprinters.
In the other corner you have Alejandro Valverde. This year's Liege-Bastogne-Liege, San Sebastian, and Dauphine Libere winner. Numerous other first places over the years, particularly in the hilly Ardennes. Has an unusually wide skill set combining climbing, sprinting, time trialing in a way that's unmatched by any other rider.
Both Freire and Valverde though have greater unfulfilled ambitions.
So the question I have is this: which will happen first:
1) valverde winning a Grand Tour or,
2) Freire winning a hilly classic: any of Flanders, Amstel, La Fleche, LBL, San Sebastian, or Lombardia?
Fill out the poll below and lets see some comments: totally wild assertions, accusations, whatever!
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wins any of the followng:
Tour of California, Tour of Murcia, Castilla y Leon, Pays Basque, Giro d’Italia and Tour de France.
A conversation with Tom Danielson
http://www.velonews.com/article/85405/a-conversation-with-tom-danielson
If Vino had been kicked out
for skipping his drug test at the 06 Vuelta, we wouldn’t have this poll.
If Valverde showed up in Flanders, he would beat Freire there too.
Valverde Vuelta win more likely
Freire is one of my all-time favorite riders, and other than Simoni winning next year’s Giro, nothing would thrill me more than to see Oscarito win a hilly classic. I believe, however, that a Vuelta win by Valverde in the next few years is more likely.
If Friere does win one of the hilly classics, my guess is that it would be Flanders. I love Lombardia, Amstel, LBL, and La Fleche, but those races are not built for surprise winners. In recent years, those races have consistently been won by the guys you’d expect to win them: Bettini, Di Luca, Rebellin, Cunego, Valverde. Flanders, on the other hand, has had surprise winners for the last two years. That unpredictability is one of the things that makes Flanders my favorite of the monuments.
Nah.. The cobbles are to much for the sensitive bum of Freire..
Think it’s more likely when he win the AGR.. Already finished top 10 there..
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
Oscarita
he’s great and all, but the competition at these hilly classics is getting worse for him, not better. One of these days, everyone will skip the Vuelta except Valverde, and he’ll get the win he earned two years ago.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 26, 2008 4:26 PM EST reply actions
I say neither
if one were to happen, I would say Oscarito. One needs only to have one great day to win a classic, and if Freire can be there in the end, with the lead group, then his sprinting skills can get him the W. The one classic I think he has the best chance to win is San Sebastian, not as much climbing, and a lot of flat after the Alto de Jaizkibel. But the top teams will know how good of a sprinter he is, so they will drive the pace and crack Freire, in the big classics. Valverde will be a top fav. at the Vuelta every year, and may be the top guy next year, if Bert doesn’t come, but he just keeps having that one horrible day. I know he came close in 06 but ever since then he has been disappointing. So I can see both happening but I will say that neither will.
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
San Sebastian for Oscar.
I wouldn’t have voted for Freire if San Sebastian hadn’t been included in the mix.
I think Valverde can win a GT, but it may take a few years, and he’ll need just the right type of parcours (no long TTs). I’m guessing Oscar has his hilly Classic in hand by then.
by The Team Chef on Nov 26, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah either San Sebastian or Flanders for Oscarito
I love Oscar but honestly I have to say his rep as a climber is overrated. He has no chance at Lombardia, La Fleche, Amstel or LBL. If he tried harder at Flanders I might give him the nod in this wonderful poll but as it stands, its Valverde who stands the better chance.
looks like
you’ve all given up on Tom Danielson
The Don will eventually focus on the Vuelta and win it.
Maybe this year after he does not with the TDF, but still has good form, or in 2011.
This will ensure his place in the hearts of his countrymen forever.
I see Don Ale is at it again over at CN:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2008/nov08/nov27news2
I do think he could win the Vuelta one year. He’s been close before and if certain other people don’t turn up and he actually concentrates, I don’t see why it’s quite so far fetched.
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