Some Country for Old Men
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 7, 2008 12:03 PM EST
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There is an item in today's Cycling News following the Columbia boys on their training camp, where George Hincapie serves notice that he intends once again to try to win Paris-Roubaix. Hincapie is 35 now, but thanks to Ursula's research we aren't restricted to admiring his pluck. If you are a Hincapie fan, you can still legitimately ask yourself if this is finally the year. On the flip...
Paris-Roubaix is not unfriendly to older riders. A brief rundown of the winners' ages in the modern era, and since I too can do a little math, I will employ some addition and long division to prove my point. To wit!
- 1980: Francesco Moser, 29
- 1981: Bernard Hinault, 27
- 1982: Jan Raas, 29
- 1983: Hennie Kuiper, 34
- 1984: Sean Kelly, 27
- 1985: Marc Madiot, 26
- 1986: Sean Kelly, 29
- 1987: Eric Vanderaerden, 25
- 1988: Dirk Demol, 27
- 1989: Jean-Marie Wampers, 30
- 1990: Eddie Planckaert, 31
- 1991: Marc Madiot, 32
- 1992: Gilbert Duclos-Lasalle, 37
- 1993: Gilbert Duclos-Lasalle, 38
- 1994: Andrei Tchmil, 31
- 1995: Franco Ballerini, 30
- 1996: Johan Museeuw, 30
- 1997: Frédéric Guesdon, 25
- 1998: Franco Ballerini, 33
- 1999: Andrea Tafi, 32
- 2000: Johan Museeuw, 34
- 2001: Servais Knaven, 30
- 2002: Johan Museeuw, 36
- 2003: Peter Van Petegem, 33
- 2004: Magnus Backstedt, 29
- 2005: Tom Boonen, 24
- 2006: Fabian Cancellara, 25
- 2007: Stuart O'Grady, 33
- 2008: Tom Boonen, 27
The table shows the following age range, and number of wins:
- 24: 1
- 25: 3
- 26: 1
- 27: 4
- 28: 0
- 29: 4
- 30: 4
- 31: 2
- 32: 2
- 33: 3
- 34: 2
- 35: 0
- 36: 1
- 37: 1
- 38: 1
Average age: 30.1
By contrast, the average age of Tour of Flanders winners in the same time span is 27.3. As for the margins, while Paris- Roubaix sports a ratio of winners over 34::winners under 25 of 7::1, for Flanders the ratio is 1::5.
Reasons? I am not merely guessing that Flanders reflects the norm, I can simply look at the headline of the next post and know this is so. Paris-Roubaix is the outlier. Why? For starters, it favors a unique body type -- larger guys -- which is something you don't lose over time, at least not before the golden years. Draft horses are a small subset of the peloton, and only slightly larger is the full slate of potentialCobble Trophy winners. In other words, the sample size is easily skewed. Another is experience: it's simply too strange a race to win until you have ridden it a few times. New training techniques could be a factor, though the winners' ages aren't going up much. Older riders have been winning there throughout the last 30 years.
So don't give up George. Flanders may be slipping away, but Roubaix isn't quite yet.
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The odds must favor him.
No one 35 years old has won recently, therefore the 0 beside 35: will be filled soon. Mystery though that 28: has a doughnut beside it also (Boonen will be 28 this year). So who else could step up to fill the doughnuts?
Speed on the descent can easily be lost when you slam into a tree.
P-R
To add to your post, I have Paris-Roubaix as having the most 30+winners easily compared to the other big races. You can see that in the table below but what also stands out is the 3rd and 4th columns:
Race———# of 30+ winners——-# of 30+ winners who first won in their 20’s—%
P-R———————36———————————4——11%
Tour——————-31——————————-14—-45%
MSR——————28——————————-12—-43%
LBL——————-27———————————-7—-26%
Paris-Tours—27————————————5—-19%
Giro——————24———————————13——54%
Flanders———23———————————-7——30%
Lombardy——21———————————-9——43%
Vuelta————-13———————————-3——23%
Total—————230——————————74——32%
(Remember the Vuelta is a much newer race so it should have fewer 30+ winners.)
Looking at that third column I have I think reinforces your thesis Chris. Not only does P-R have more 30+ winners but fewer of them first won the race in their 20’s. In other words P-R is really deficient on guys like Armstrong, Indurian, Hinault, Merckx, and Anquetil in the Tour or Coppi or Bartali in the Giro and Lombardia etc: great riders who started their dominance of the race in their 20’s and continued that dominance in their 30’s.
However P-R also stands out in having winners who won their first P-R in their 30’s then won a second (or in Museeuw’s case three times) later. There have been four such guys in P-R:
-Museeuw- 96, 00, and 02
- Duclos-Lassalle: 92 and 93
-Ballerini- 95 and 98
-Pelisser way back in ’19 and ’21.
None of the other races compares to this. Lombardia is the only other race with 2 guys doing this feat, the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta each had one guy and the other one day Classics haven’t had anybody. What’s this mean? Good news not only for Hincapie but for O’Grady too. P-R is the most age-friendly race.
"All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it."- H. L. Mencken
Further.. a Lance orientated post.
Okay. The dude’s 37. Wants to win the Tour or the Giro. Whatever. By my data:
- 2 riders have won one of these big races at age 39. Duclos-Lassale (93) and Lesna (1902) were the ones to do it- both in P-R
- 3 riders won at age 38 Duclos-Lassale (92), Cerami (60) and Lesna (01) did this feat- in P-R
- 2 riders have won at age 37. Museeuw (2002) did it in P=R while Tchmil (2000) did it in Flanders.
The oldest Tour winner was 36, just one of them: Lambot in 1922. There are no 35 year old winners, just five 34 year olds.
The oldest Giro winner was 35, just one of them: Magni in 1955. There are three 34 year old winners.
The oldest Vuelta winner is 33. Three of them: Vinokourov in 06, Rominger in 94, and Zoetemelk in 79.
The Grand Tours don’t like 37 year olds.
"All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it."- H. L. Mencken
"ELPMO" is at it again
By my count about 148 Podium Cafeans don’t like ursula’s statistics by counting the lack of comments.
Worst...
statistic… ever.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 7, 2008 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think her statistics are so
thorough that I don’t know what to add. Maybe she should be picking stocks with those analyzing skills.
WHAT?
Shatter my dreams. Crush my spirit….is it too much to hope for smart, analytical, cycling fan chicks?
Ursula is a guy!?…damn.
meanwhile,
the actual women posters slink off into the corner to eat worms.
or look at benna photos, which sounds much more fun.
How did a post about Hincapie's dream to win P-R
suddenly get a Benna picture on it? Really, you girls are shameless, this post was meant to be serious and deep, and look what you turned it into, you should all be sickened of yourselves. ;)
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
Ha, I would say living down to your reputation
George would be so sad to see this happen to a thread about his hopes of winning P-R, he’s cursed indeed! :)
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
Only of one with the P-R tropyh in hand
so I guess that would be a no, unless you can amazingly retrieve a photo from the future.
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
awwww.... flowers are quite nice. At least he holds them
correctly. Some guys on the podium truly look uncomfortable with those icky flowers in their hands.
Someone's been on Benna's website ;-)
As indeed have I….we have new pictures girls, courtesy of his fan day thingy!
http://www.danielebennati.it/UserFiles/Image/2008/Festa%20Rigutino/bettiniphoto_0032500_1_400x.jpg
Phil, pleeeez don’t shoot me ;-)
OMG Here comes another Bennalanche
I’m thinking 37 posts within 2-3 hours
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
Might I suggest that you head out for a nice long ride Jens?
By the time you get back the worst will be over, have no fear :-)
This time of year in Sweden
I don’t go outside the house voluntarily unless I need to go to work or the house is on fire.
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
How many hours of twilight do you have now?
As opposed to simple outright night?
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc.
I have no earthly idea
I get up at 6 and it’s dark as night. By the time I get to work at about 8 it’s dawning. Even on short days (and there are none of those as we are in the middle of christmas-business) when I get off at 17:00 it’s pitch dark basically.
If someone posts a reply containing the words “sunnny” “balmy” or “warm breeze” I take no responsibility for the consequenses.
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
Your about where we are here
although I think its a bit lighter in the morning, maybe by 6:30-7. But it’s dark as hell by 4:30-5:00 when I attempt to leave work (at times).
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
You don't have snow at all?
We only got maybe 2-3 inches last night but back home (WI) family got almost 12 inches of the pretty white stuff dumped on them. Ouch!
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Further north but not here
We just get constant wind, rain, hail, snowmixed rain and temps around 0 degrees celsius. Damn you to hell Al Gore for starting global warming.
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
How many months of that? Yuck.
I’d ship you some warm sunshine if I could!
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Hello Vodka!
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 10, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
I won't use any of those words...
… but I’ll let the internet speak for me…
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc.
You my dear are an ass.
It’s like 30 degrees here but (sorry Jens) we do have the sun out right now. It sadly is going to disappear quickly though this afternoon and chances are will be gone until maybe Saturday.
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
MavicMoto, are you really insulting all go the true female posters on this site?
Or did that come out wrong?
NoNono.. I cherish you all.
It the egalitarian nature of the site that I love. It amazes me.
I was just sad to lose one.
But gaining Jeri Ryan/sevenofone(?) half compensates!
More true female posters
I have nothing valuable to add to this discussion except:
If you are a Hincapie fan, you can still legitimately ask yourself if this is finally the year.
That’s a relief. It would be a fairy tale story if he wins this year.
As if it must be added – I will be on pins and needles for weeks prior. Biggest Race of the Year to me. I love Paris-Roubaix.
Go George.
It would be a nice story
but I just don’t think Columbia is strong enough for him to beat Boonen and Fabian. I already feel that those two are a bit better than George and their teams are far better on the cobbles. Take Ballan, last year. for example. Lampre was far weaker than CSC and Quickstep at P-R, and it seemed to show late, Ballan seemed to be the weakest of the three in the top group, and didn’t come close to beating Boonen(not that Cancellara did either). So IMO everything would really have to work perfectly for Hincapie to win.
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
The conundrum
Which we’ll revisit soon enough. How to get guys like Hincapie to the line without Boonen around. Hey, ask Ballan and Cancellara how much fun that can be.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 7, 2008 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
The best solution
would be to make sprinters like Boonen do an extra half lap around the velodrome, that way the non-sprinters might have a chance. Or they can just add some weight to Boonen’s wheels shortly before they enter the velodrome. Or give him cocaine, although that actually could make him quicker, it’s a calculated risk.
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
An Open Letter to Flemish Fans
Dear Flemish PdCers:
The opinions expressed in this thread do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Podium Cafe’s owners or authors. Even the ones who blew 25 VDS points on him this year. Please do not kill us when we come to the Ronde in 2010. Yours in cobbles, Chris
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 7, 2008 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
That scared of them that you had to post twice huh?
well I’m not going to Ronde in 2010(you lucky bastard) so I’ll continue to cook up a plan on how to beat Boonen. Fabian is my man, I really need him to make the autograph I have from him more valuable, in case i plan to sell it on ebay in 40 years.
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
That means my shirt would be worth so much more... Go Fabian
We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
fixed
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 8, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
Oh that's how it is...
you may want to keep those edit powers on the down low. If Drew catches wind of that things might get said that will be regretted later….except for those with editing superpowers that is.
Drew
He’s working for me now.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 8, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
I so spilled my coffee this morning.
ha ha! Nicely done Jens. :-)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain
We all know where the true power on this site resides.
Remember Chris, nothing you could tell my Mom about me would ever surprise her. Me talking to your Mom, on the other hand…………….
"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."
I'll be good!
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 8, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Wow! That certainly put Chris in his place!
You must have some seriously good stories to share at the ToC party then Mr. Drew. Hey is Pete coming too? This could get dangerous for the boss. ha ha!
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Well, its as easy for Boonen and Fabian to have the bad luck as George has other years.
I’ll be hoping it turns the other way this time. Here’s to a healthy helping of “mechanical trouble” to even things out. George should be way again in the mechanical column so the others need to catch up.
I'll be cheering for Geoge with ya Zoe!!!
I so want him to win it before he retires. It’s not like he doesn’t have the physical ability or that anyone (I don’t think) would say he wasn’t worthy of such a dreamed about win. The man just has the shittiest bad luck when it comes to the bike. I always feel so bad. (I’d feel much better if he made it to the end neck and neck and lost versus him having the crap luck he’s had.)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
George is still strong enough, he just needs some luck
It seems luck is not on his side. His best chance was a few years ago before his fork steerer broke. That was practically sealed up for him before he crashed. I’m surprised he didn’t take a machine gun to his equipment guys/mechanics after that.
If I just had one more gear, I...
Just watched that last night on the trainer
When it happened I was legitimately bummed out for about 20’. I’d love to see him win it all before he retires.
"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."
I'm with you guys hoping for a some Roubaix-luck for Hincapie
Maybe he can get a win in 2010. I have looked in the crystal ball and foreseen that in 2009, Garmin will go Mapei on the competition with a double win for Maggy and Maaskant. This is as good as certain information.
As for the fork steerer incident ,GH sure looked good but saying someone has P-R sealed up when sitting with the leaders at Mons en Pevele is a bit optimistic. :-)
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
You know of course that you are jinxing him
If, say, I hated Hincky’s guts I would do what you folks are doing here.
"All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it."- H. L. Mencken
Agreed
He was one of a few guys that day with good legs – question is, would he have chased Spartacus when he went? Probably no since that was Gusev’s job. And as everyone eventually figured out, if you don’t tack Tony back within 100 meters then you’re probably not going to get him.
Still, after how good he looked at Flanders the week before it was crushing to see him go down in that fashion. But that’s cycling.
"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."
Yep
He had podium written all over him, but not first. Then there’s the question of what he’d have done at the train gate.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 9, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
He never looks like someone who will take first
You always assume he will hesitate to make the aggressive move at the right time. Cance saw tiredness in Boonen and took his shot. I’m not entirely sure GH would have dared to gamble and go with him?
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
talking of (or by) Old Men
http://click.cyclingfever.com/?jump=3/8077/1167822726-86
Dear Peloton...
Hey guys, it’s me. I haven’t really been in touch much since the unpleasantness of the Riccardo Ricco stuff last year but I just wanted to send a quick note to let you know I’m still here, doing well and still a fan. I have a quick little request though.
Let George Hincapie into a break during Paris-Roubaix with a teammate and two major competitors, sayyyyyyyy Tony and Devolder. Let them fly through the Trouée d’Arenberg spitting mud and guts. Let them slam and jangle across the pave. Let Devolder flat in the final pave section into Roubaix so that Tony and George have to grind it out against each other. Arrange it so that George Hincapie wins Paris-Roubaix in near hurricane force wind conditions with his visage spattered head to toe in mud so that the tears of rapturous joy will carve mini-canyons down his cheeks crossing the finish line in the velodrome as Tony throws his bike across the line one tire width too late.
In exchange, I promise to continue to buy Columbia Sportwear apparel when I look for hiking and camping stuff.
Yours in spirit…
Crashdan
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc.
Dan have we told you lately how much we love you?
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
That would be an nightmare...
Spartcus, Devolder and Hincapie how are fighting for the win… I promise if that’s true I get 3 poles to et them all down! We want to see Flecha, Breschel, Langeveld and Maaskant in the front!
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
Oh I do like that Dan
How about you write a letter to George, and i’ll pass it to him at the TDU, maybe when i’m locked in a lift with him or Adam, or Mark or any of the riders… Ok i’ll stop now. hehehehe
We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
Oh Cyclegirl. Most awesome idea.
You must tell George about us girls ladies women on PdC and how much we adore him and his darling wife and cute babies. Tell him no hard feelings for his going and marrying a podium girl and that we are just happy that he is happy.
But also tell him to lay off the happy baby making business so that he’ll be hungry to win P-R for us this year.
ATTENTION: New George Pics!!
I just noticed he put up winter training camp pictures on his website. Sexy one!
http://www.georgehincapie.com/gallery/photos/2008wintercamp/00.jpg
Ohhhh Nice...
We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
Is it just me or does Scott make the most uninspiring colourschemes ever on their bikes?
They look like the Volvos of the bikeworld.
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
I didn't say they were bad bikes
I’ve never ridden one but by all accounts they are excellent bikes. They just look …….. boring.
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
Right now, there are so many conservative bike brands out there . . . .
. . . . . it is really sad.
I think it is a combination of a very competitive market and the target demographic being the ’Boomers.
You know, the same people who buy Volvos?
Balderdash!
Of course half of you don’t even know what an internal combustion engine is… or just figure it’s what makes your espresso…
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc.
Well, it is a nice blue. And probably has one of those keychains with buttons on it.
But can you fit three or four people in it with luggage? Where on earth do you put the bike rack? What kind of mileage does it get?
Where on earth do you find a bikerack that will hold bikes when doing 300km/h?
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
Can I have one?
Free? with no insurance costs and no need to fill the tank?
Honestly, cars are cool and all, but if you offered me one for free in exchange for giving up my bike and my daily commute, that’d be a non-starter.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Dec 9, 2008 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
Don't be flashin' a Bugatti in defense of a Volvo.
Volvo’s have sucked ever since they were purchased by Ford, and the ’Boomer demo. has been the backbone of the road bike market now for the last 10 years.
Not in defense of a volvo...
… in defense of cars being “tedious vehicles” (although the English of that phrase warms my soul). There is no Defense Against the Dark Swedish Arts.
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc.
Very moody!
That’s a moody cloud in the background too…are you sure he hasn’t been eaten up my a hurricane?
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