is just good advice.

but the answer to the question "Under which circumstances are you likely to beat Valverde in a sprint?" is : Sometimes after a tough 260km race. Rebellin isn't such a poor sprinter himself, and Valverde was pretty cooked in the sprint at Amstel, so it might have been a reasonable gamble by Rebellin. Better certainly that sitting there looking at each other while Schleck powered away to victory.

That said, Valverde was always going to be  the favourite in the last 300 m so I personally  think Rebellin should have done what he's done in many races this spring: ride aggressively. If he and Schleck had played the one-two on Valverde one of them might have had a shot.

who's to say that the second half of that conversation between Valverde and Rebellin didn't start with this:

How much ya want for the win?

Curious, was there a similar thread about Boonen playing the most successful rider of 2008 for a rube by slapping his ass at the Paris Roubaix red kite and making him assume the position?

I'll add: I thought it was an intriguing sprint, made more so by the Roche aux Faucons hill. Your analysis proved right, but at the time I wondered if even Schleck still had an outside chance, based on how tired the other guys were. Valverde looked least fresh, but not by enough to lose in the end. Rebellin has won on the Ans climb before, so he couldn't be dismissed either. But Valverde... he's a fast little sandbagger, isn't he?

Horner said he and Chavanel were both going for the win.  Neither wanted second place and sometimes the bunch catches you when you are playing cat and mouse.  But he seemed to have no regrets, very much like Rebellin.

I remember Tricky Ricky Viernque and Axel (I'd like to buy a vowel) Merckx riding together on Bastille Day, with a decent enough gap on the peloton to clinch the stage win, apparently TR needed the points that day to sew up the Polka Dot Jersey, so Axel was doing the majority of the work dragging TR up the mountains, supposedly in exchange for the stage win.  But Uh Oh, on that last climb Richard took one look at Axel over his shoulder and he powered off alone, (leaving Axel in the dust) to take the stage win and the Polka Dot Jersey

Moral:  Never make a deal with a Frenchman on Bastille Day.

trust Richard Virenque with anything, under any circumstances. I still don't understand why he's Drew's all-time favorite rider.

Never work with a sprinter.  Yes, this is certainly true under two scenarios.  If you are in a break that is well-established and there is little chance you will be caught by the main field, don't work with the sprinter.  Either attack the crap out of him/her, try to sit on, or take fakey weak little pulls that save your legs as much as possible.  If you are in a break early in a race, don't work with the sprinter either.  Try to force him or her to work.  If you fail, you might as well allow the break to get caught and reshuffle the cards.

But deep in the finale of Liegi is another story altogether.  Rebe faced two scenarios whose odds he had to calculate: Baby Schleck off the front and Baby Schleck chasing.

Baby Schleck off the front.  
Here, Rebe had two problems to resolve.  Young Andy was killing the climbs one after another.  His move there at 'round about 20 km to go (I didn't re-watch this, so my highlight reel might be a little off) had the look of a winning move.  From my couch, it certainly looked like he could go all the way if given half a chance.  Rebe had to ensure he wasn't given that chance.  

But Rebe also had to consider the chase at this point.  Though working with/for Valverde was less than ideal, allowing the chase group containing the screaming fast Cunego to catch would have only made matters worse.  With Andy Schleck off the front until the Saint Nicholas, we saw Rebe working, Val sorta kinda sometimes working, and Franky sitting on.  Here, Rebe is making the best of a not-so ideal (like, totally not ideal, actually) tactical situation.  He doesn't  necessarily want to go to the line with Valverde, but he can't give the race away to Andy and he definitely doesn't want to sprint against Cunego.  Pick your poison.

On to Andy Chasing.
On the St Nicholas, Andy is caught and Franky predictably counters.  So totally textbook right there.  Rebe has a new dilemma, a dilemma created largely by the double-teaming from CSC.  He must know that Franky nearly won Liegi last year with a move right about here on the St Nick.  If he hesitates, he loses, giving the race away to Franky.  He also must have hoped that he could go with Franky, leave Val behind, and win the two-up with Franky.  Perfect ending for Rebe.  Things are looking up.  But Val the cagey bluffer had the legs to follow, and it was all back together.  At this point, you say, Rebe should have stopped working, and forced Val to finish the deal.  

But still there is Andy to consider.  Watch the finishing shots again, and he is within the view of the camera behind the sprint.  He never got that close to getting back to the front threesome, but he was close enough that a wise rider could not ignore him.  You never really want to allow a team mate to make it back on to the break, especially not that close to the finish.  Doubly so in this case, because Andy was quite possibly the strongest rider in the race on Sunday.  Rebe certainly does not want to reach Ans with a pair of Schlecks and Valverde.  If both Schlecks had made the finish, it's almost certain that one of them would have won, even against two superior sprinters.  The advantage of a team mate in a sit. like that is huge.  

So again, Rebe is forced to calculate among unpleasant alternatives.  If he doesn't work, there's a good chance Val won't either - certainly Rebe knows Val's rep for wheelsuckage-wait for the sprint tactics as well as we do.   Then, Andy catches and Rebe almost certainly doesn't win.  If he does work, he will likely keep Andy from re-joining the group.  He knows in a three-up he can certainly beat Franky, so by working, he gets at least second.  And since he's no slouch himself in a sprint, he knows he has at least a chance at beating Valverde.  So, he works.  It's not the ideal scenario - Rebe must have been wishing that Andy would flat or temporarily drop off the planet, since the other chase groups were long gone by this point.  But with Andy chasing, Rebe is short on options.  He works to keep the threesome away, and hopes that Val has left his sprint somewhere in the neighborhood of La Redoute.

Perhaps it was a mistake for Franky to sit on at Ans and wait for the sprint, rather than going early the way he did at Amstel.  Rebe covered him so quick on the St Nicholas, though, he must have thought he had little chance to get away again in the last km.  He also may well have been out of legs, having played his last card on the St Nick.  Only he knows for sure.

For me, Andy was (yet again) the revelation of this race.  He made those climbs look so easy.  But also impressive and maybe overlooked at tad, was a top ten finish from Nibali who came in right behind Bettini.  I like that guy more and more.

I so heart the Ardennes.  

sorry, that ended up really long.  really, you should probably start charging me by the word or something ;-)