The break should stay away—the Ardennes type winners are also those for the gc. (Except maybe Rebellin.) They’ll want to save their teams and not chase.

So are they going to save their team? And will LPR? One wonders what the strategies are right now. DiLuca seemed willing to work his team like draft horses today. And Liquigas… Pellizotti’s their GC guy. CW is that he needs to dump the jersey ASAP.

The way he’s been acting I do see Di Luca trying to seize control over the next few stages. I think he will indeed burn matches. However the peloton will be wise to this- burn me once shame on you, burn me twice shame on me. In other words, these next stages are a big trap for Killer. Guys like Kloden, Contador, Sorenson, Sella, etc. will use these stages to get stronger while the LPR team will waste enery trying to breakaway. Think of a pack of wolves treacking down a moose- let it run until it tires.

Ricco’s finger injury might be a blessing in disguise if it cools his blood; i.e. stops him from trying to out do Di Luca and just stay in the leading peloton group so as to not lose any real time. Pelozzoti and Nibali would be wise to do the same. Let Rebellin and Bettini fight for some stage wins and follow close behind.

I think the next fe stages could prove very important for the GC battle. If Di Luca can take a few time bonuses, he is that much better off when the real climbing starts. Every second counts . . .

... can I get the lowdown from those that know as to how he performs in time trials and mountain stages? My exposure to the Giro was Versus based last year so I don’t have any first hand knowledge of his abilities as compared to the usual Tour guys. How is he expected to hold up when the mountains loom or on the Corones?

LPR looked like they were in it for the stage win yesterday and today, man, they were whipped into a frenzy over the last 10K or so and I have to think that’s not what you want to be doing to your team in the first week unless you’re going for the stage wins for your “I’m going to pull out of the race in three days” sprinter.

Stage 13 – Albi… 5:42 behind Cadel Evans / 4:32 behind Contador (6:56 behind a Vodka Blooded Vinokourov )
Stage 19 – Cognac – Angoulême… 5:28 behind Levi Leipheimer / 3:10 behind Contador

I’m not liking Soler’s chances in the Giro for GC. Di Luca is, as I said, a bit of a cypher for me but less so thanks to the posts above.

It certainly sounds like this is going to get very, very interesting. I can’t wait :D :D :D :D :D :D

“Si Contador ganara el Giro, sería humillante” by Toni Colom roomate of Contador

by Di Luca: ’’Hay que eliminar a Contador cuanto antes’’ oh yes…

CAVENDISH: THIS IS MY BIGGEST WIN

i don’t think so, maybe in paper but against the other riders… The two victories in Scheldeprijs Vlaanderen, first against Mcewen, this year against Boonen.Was
memorable.

I’m sure they will try. No doubt CSC will put someone in the break, since they lost both their sprinter and their leadout guy yesterday (Oof, how fun would it have been to watch McGee lead out OGrady?). No one is really going to let Jens! go this early in the game though. The Italian kids have to get theirs first.

LPR, Quicky, and Gerol will all ride to ensure the break is brought back in a timely manner. No question. The sprinters’ teams can chill, but there’s plenty of legs there to bring it all back together either for an uphill sprint finish or a late attack from someone like Bettini. Even Saunier might help out some. Bettini, Ricco, Diluca, they all will want to win here, GC hopes or no. This is one way in which the Giro is raced differently than the Tour. Simoni always sits back and waits, he is very much a stage racer at heart. But he’s more the exception than the rule among the Italians, like Ricco, Diluca, and Cunego (though he’s become more patient with age.) They like to win early and often. Diluca’s tactics last year worked on that course, but I’m skeptical that his early and often scheme will work this time around. The time bonuses may help, but the high mountains are significantly harder than last year and will, with a little help from those pesky chrono thingies, decide the race.

Liquigas actually has not worked all that hard to keep the jersey. The sprinters’ teams have done a good bit of the pacemaking. Really, I don’t know what LPR was doing today working on the front so much. Or, yesterday either. Diluca isn’t going to win a flat sprint in this lifetime, or at least, not at a grand tour. Astana is playing it far smarter at this point than LPR, and Diluca may pay for his impatience here. Such a spaz that Diluca.

I doubt Liquigas gives the jersey away, though Diluca is certainly going after it all hot and heavy. The idea that a team “gives away the jersey:” it’s one of those odd tactical “rules” that the Armstrong years invented. Few teams really intend to give it away, eventually, it just goes. Tomorrow, I’d expect it to pass on to Diluca, but Pellizotti will contest the finish, I suspect. He’s no slouch on an uphil finish either.

Stages like this are one of my fave parts of the Giro, and part of what makes it my fave race of the year. There’s just always something happening.

Did folks notice how on that last rise today how he was out in front, testing his legs, getting in shape? I think what gavia wrote above is interesting, First:

Even Saunier might help out some. Bettini, Ricco, Diluca, they all will want to win here, GC hopes or no. This is one way in which the Giro is raced differently than the Tour. Simoni always sits back and waits, he is very much a stage racer at heart. But he’s more the exception than the rule among the Italians, like Ricco, Diluca, and Cunego

Then:

The idea that a team "gives away the jersey:" it’s one of those odd tactical "rules" that the Armstrong years invented. Few teams really intend to give it away, eventually, it just goes.

Well we know Bruyneel is racing a Tour type race and so probably is Menchov and Soler as well as Simoni and CSC and CdE. So this is especially fun- different philosophies on how to run such a race. Its like the old saying about chess: A chess match is an argument on how to play the game of chess.