FanPost

Giro End Game

Shortly before the Giro started I resurrected an old saying about chess:  "a chess game is all about how to play a chess game."  I find that saying true when one talks about pro cycling too.  To take the analogy another step, in chess as in a grand tour event in cycling one can divide the match into three stages: an opening, a middle game and an end game.  We are rapidly approaching the end game in this year's Giro, meaning the full fruition of the various team's ideas on how to play and win the Giro are becoming apparent too all.  That's what I want to write about here, the strategies of the various teams and how sound they are.

But before looking at the main teams individually its good to remember the ground rules for every team.  Those rules can be broken down into how the teams deal with the year long schedule that is their game board. In other words there are priorities that each team needs to put in order on the offseason- or even the season before since that is when negotiations take place about switching teams or releasing riders etc. For instance we already know of Basso's signing by Liquigas but undoubtedly there are already preliminary negotiations going on with a whole bunch of riders right now.  By next New Year we basically can look at the teams' rosters and see what they are targeting for the next year.

Each team has the same game board.  There are four major peaks to the schedule (the three grand tours and the 4th GT: the major spring classics from MSR through to LBL.)  In addition most teams have some considerations of nationalism that shape their priorities in different ways.  For instance considerations of nationalism will always cause Belgium-based teams to invest heavily in that 4th GT since much of it is on their soil, or American teams prioritize California, Georgia, and maybe Missouri, and Italian teams favor their Giro, etc.  Of course within each of the 4 GT's each team prioritizes what their goals are too.  These are the ground rules.  Now how are the various teams doing in respect to this year's Giro?  How are they handling adversity?  What are their fall-back plans?  Let's take a look at the teams in order of their GC placement:

Astana- As we know, their DS heavily favors the Grand Tours over one day classics and within the Grand Tours, the GC classifications.  Thus he loads up on riders who can climb and TT- and he works to improve those abilities in the off season.  He does throw a bone at the classics and the sprinters but its obviously the weaker hand- and it would be best if those sprinters (Basayev or Vaitkus) and classics guys (Gusev) can pull the Astana train at least on the flats.  Its also well known that Astana was thrown for a curve by ASO and RCS, excluding them from various races, and that RCS relented a week before the Giro, thus putting the team under extreme pressure in adjusting their schedules.

But as we know even with that pressure, The Accountant finds himself in 1st place with a week to go.  Can he hold it?  We've seen his two main riders fail in the mountains (Klodi and LL) because of the lack of prep time and Contador himself has not been the attacking force that he was last year at the Tour or earlier this year at Pais Vasco or Castile and Leon.  It makes one wonder what if Bert had actually prepped for this Giro, how good would he and the team have been?  It says here if that were the case this race would be over because the general offseason prep work has left this team loaded as we thought it was.  That's not to say I'm guaranteeing a Contador win in this Giro.  Much will depend on his team forming a fast enough train to discourage breaks of the main rivals and to land riders in the breaks that happen.  No way do they let Sella of again.  Or Ricco etc.  The last two mountain stages and their downhill finishes also favor Contador as he can make up time on the descents if he gets gaped a little.  For Astana this Giro and the later Vuelta are their two highlights for the year.  Do they have the stamina to win the first?  If they do IMO that Bert may not win a stage does not in the least detract from a truly remarkable victory- or his dominance over his rivals.

SDV- Their hopes for the year are sort of a 3 1/2 out of 4 strategy.  They hoped to do well in the Ardennes (that's the 1/2 with the Cobbles being the other 1/2), while spreading their resources around in the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta.  To my mind they are much like Rabobank and sort of CSC- trying to cover all the bases.  Unfortunately they spread themselves too thin.  If they concentrated their best riders (Rico, Cobo, Piepoli,  Marchante, De La Fuente, etc) on just a couple of these targets they could stand a great chance to win them.  This was particularly true once Iban Mayo got caught in Doping Limbo thus making them lose a major piece.

Thus for this year's Giro they tried to get by with mainly Rico and Piepoli and thus got put in a world of hurt when Piepoli got hurt.  They had no back-up plan as the other riders just aren't up for these mountains.  So we are left with the (to me embarrassing) spectacle of a young and gifted rider trying to work out implausible strategies in the press- "hey Simoni!  Want to help ME win?"  Yeah, riiiiiiiiiiiiight.  Ricco can still win this thing as he's a major talent- and he would have won this if Astana hadn't gotten a last second entry but the lack of contingency plans In Case Plan A Goes Wrong is glaring- and it will again be glaring in the Tour and Vuelta.

Serramenti Di...whatever- Simoni's Last Hurrah. Discarded a year too early by SDV, Simoni landed on an Italian pro-continental team for the sole purpose to win/compete in this here Giro and in that goal he and his team have done a great job.  In my mind he and his team have already won.  Being a Pro-Continental team one can't really expect them to fully have his back in the mountains but it seems they were aware of that going in and they knew they could rely on such an old warhorse to carry on by himself against his rivals and hold his own.  This is an instance where the leader's emotional make-up is rock solid and because of that he seems like a lock for a podium place.  Simple vanilla strategy that happens to perfectly match their lead rider.  Good job.

Lampre- Ah we come to the first of two teams that features a serious podium threat who happens to have been a super domestique all these years.  Who knew Bruseghin would be so good?  Well in all due respect Lampre should have known and Bruse should have been a protected rider for years- maybe not always their protected rider in the Giro but protected somewhere.  Still, Lampre did have a clue and that's why they felt tranquil with him leading them this year in their top race of the year.  Bruse also came with a couple of decent lieutenants if he needs them in Szymd and Spilak.  In other words they were smarter than SDV.  You need back-up in a GT if you are serious.

Basically Lampre came into the Giro with stealth campaign to steal a place on the podium.  That is now within reach as long as they, as the saying goes, "play within themselves".  They need to concentrate not on winning the GC but on helping Bruse over the mountains as quickly as possible.  They need to form a little train themselves of Bruse, Szymd, Spilak and the rest without regard of what Astana or SDV etc. are doing: just get Bruse to the finish line so that he's close enough to overtake a rider or two ahead of him in the final TT to nab a podium spot.  In other words don't let Bruse crack.  Support him all the way.  Don't leave him isolated if at all possible.  Ignore Astana and the rest.  Be The Little Train That Could.

Liquigas- The other team with a super domestique doing better than expected.  I wouldn't want to be on Liquigas as this year winds down what with Basso climbing aboard, Pellizotti proving himself a leader, and Nibali ready to take a step up to some podium somewhere.  But that's for next year.  This year the Giro is once again their undisputed priority #1 and their Giro strategy has been pretty good but not great.  For them it all came down to what to do once Save Ferris! took the pink jersey after stage two.  They were right to let it slip away but in retrospect they knew they had built a talented and deep team and since this was their big race of the year and with the addition of a rider or two (Beltran? or Kreuzinger? or someone else?) they could have run quite an intimidating train in the hills in support of Wegelius, Noe, Nibali, and Pellizotti.  Basically they could have ganged up on the other teams but they didn't- quite- bring enough firepower to have the confidence to grab and early lead and hold it., and they possibly could have.

For my mind this is a problem a lot of teams have: they don't have enough confidence in their second line riders to drive home a victory.  Its like they don;t know what to do with their alloted nine slots and they waste a couple of them on riders or early and mid game strategies that waste the riders before the end game starts. They then come close and think they had a good race but they could have done more as they had the resources.  Once they lost the pink jersey they had too much competition to get it back and I don't expect Pellizotti to nab a podium place as a result.  He could, mind you, if they play the end game like I recommend Lampre do but I just don't see enough belief in teamwork.  Its a shame.

LPR- Another Pro Continental team built for helping their leader win another pink jersey.  I really don;t understand this squad so I won't say much here.  Everyone knew last winter that Di Luca would have a very hard time defending his crown due to the hills and that's what we are seeing.  In addition we are seeing a Vinokourov-type of tyrannical leadership on the course.  Not good.  He has the talent to podium (I give him no chance to win it all) and he has a decently talented team to help him but his ego is killing him.  I feel sorry for Savoldelli.

Rabobank- I spoke above about SDV spreading themselves too thing and that being a Rabobank problem too.  What's good for Rabo though in this Giro is that in context for the entire year they are not allowing this grand tour to mess with their overall plans.  For them their priorities have been the Tour and Cobbles/Ardennes before the Giro and Vuelta and so the lack of support for Menchov for this Giro- especially in light of how difficult the mountains are- a wise one.  That Menchov is doing so well bodes well for their higher priority in the Tour where Dekker will be his chief lieutenant. and the rest of the team will be there to help him stay in contention and defend a lead if they get it.  This Giro is pure gravy for Rabobank and a top ten finish is better than expected.  Smiles all around.  My advise for Menchov and Rabo for the end game is to follow Contador- use the Astana train that will form and use it to be in position to TT into a top five or even a podium spot if other contenders crack- and if they don;t crack be content with a job well done in a not so important race.

CSF- Also a pro-continental team that is way over-performing expectation in this, their big race of the year.  They have to be ecstatic right now not only for Sella but for Possovivo and Baliani s well.

That said they could still could lose all they have gained if they play the end game poorly.  What got them to this great position they are in (great mountain climbing combined with being totally ignored) is not what will carry them further.  If they try to break early in the remaining stages they will get covered.  Guaranteed.  But if they hold back, let other riders attack early (in the mountains) then counter on the last mountain as a team they could well move up a few spots.  They have the depth to counter but do they have the patience?

CSC and High Road- The last two teams I want to talk about together as they are in a similar place with Rabobank in regards to this race as it stands for their year's priorities: useful but not as important as the Cobbles/Ardennes, or the Tour. So it wasn't surprising that both teams are blooding young riders- giving their more inexperienced talent a chance to show what they got against great competition in hopes that the experience will help the team in future GTs in future years.  And who knows if they rolled 7's they might have found an Andy Schleck.  They didn't but that didn't mean their campaigns were a loss and besides High Road gave Cavendish invaluable experience.

They are out of serious GC consideration though Larson and Sorenson have got to be pleasing their DS but its interesting that they did not throw a Denny Menchov into their lineups.  What was the better strategy?  Seems to me that all three teams (Rabo, CSC, and HR) have got to be satisfied with this Giro.