FanPost

Giro: GC Fave-o-rama

This Giro is a climbing frenzy, a race to be won by half-starved, lettuce crunching skinny kids.  There are four time trials on the menu, and woe be to the climber whose team cannot pedal quickly together for 23 km.  The individual time trials, however, are relatively short, at 40 km and 23 km.  These three flatish time trials could be all but cancelled out by the sufferfest up Plan de Corones.   If not, well, there's mountains galore for the climbers to get their revenge and the passisti to pray for deliverance.  In the event you have forgotten just how ridiculous the climbing stages are in this race, head over to Gazzetta and have a look-see at stages 14, 15, 19, and 20.  l'ouch.  Those'll leave a mark or several.

To the faves, in no particular order.
For those who'd like to play along at home, here's your start list.

Gilberto Simoni.  Were he to win this Giro, he would be the oldest winner in the history of the race.  Anyone know the current oldest winner is?  Neither do I. But I do know that at his best, Simoni can climb like nobody's business.  In younger years, he'd be drooling at the thought of this course.  Really, it could not suit him better.  But does he still have the legs?  Last year, it seemed that perhaps he did not.  Age does have a way of creeping up on one, doesn't it?  

Ricardo Ricco.  Best known this season for bike tossing, he won the epic mountain stage at Tre Cima last year, with a little assist from Piepoli. Ricco consciously aped Pantani's famed victory salute.  Bulba and Cassani cried in rapture. Does he have the legs to match his idol's palmares?  Hard to say, as this season has been erratic, at best.  Certainly he must be rated a heavy favorite on this course all the same.  There aren't too many on the start list with his climbing talents.  Or his 'tude.

Danilo Diluca.  Last year, conventional wisdom had it that he could not win in the high mountains.  Sometimes conventional wisdom talks out of its ass.  Again, this course looks too mountainous for a rider who made his name in the hilly one day classics.  But again, the Killah will love to prove us all wrong.  He's light on racing this season, due to a little misunderstanding with the good people at CONI.  No doubt he's prepared carefully for this Giro, but the course and the lack of racing might well thwart his chances.  Top five is doable, a win is a long-shot.

Paolo Savoldelli.  He's team mate to Diluca this season, and after last year's relatively disappointing ride perhaps does not entirely deserve Top Fave billing.  All the same, he's won this little romp around Italy twice before, and is never one to let an opportunity to win pass him by.  No doubt he has stage 19 circled in his black book: a descending finish off the Aprica might well give him a stage win.  The jersey?  He'd have to climb out of his mind to win it, and will likely find the mountain stages a few too many for his chances.  

Franco Pellizotti.  I know, I know, he's already in the not-Favorites thread.  But I think he deserves billing as a fave.  Why?  Because he's twice finished top ten.  Why not?  Because he has tended to struggle in the high mountains.  Pelli typically has one disastrous day in the mountain stages where the wheels come off.  Maybe this year, he holds it together.  He'll benefit from the support of Andrea Noe, who is likely the oldest starter on the list, and definitely the crankiest.  A top five finish would be great for Pellizotti, a win is probably too much to ask.

Vincenzo Nibali.  Young, up and coming, and highly rated.  Nibali did impressive support work for Diluca in last year's Giro, and this year returns as a co-leader with Pellizotti.  He is known more as a time trialer than climber, though he's no slouch in the mountains.  A top ten finish would be a solid ride, anything more would be stellar.  He's certainly talented, but his relative inexperience and a truly unforgiving course will probably limit his chances of scoring the upset win this year.

Juan Soler.  The climbing revelation of last year's Giro di Francia turns his attention to Italia.  In the car, he has the experienced Claudio Corti, who DS'd Simoni to victory at Saeco.  Corti knows him some Giro.  Soler was born for the high mountains, and will find plenty of room to play on this course.  Can he time trial well enough to secure the GC?  With climbing legs like his, he may not need to.  He also may benefit from the various rivalries among the Italians.  Watch him, kids, he might just steal your shirt.

Alberto Contador.  He's won the Tour.  He can definitely climb.  Is there any reason he can't win this race?  Really, I can't think of one.  If the press is to be believed, he's not prepared for this Giro - something about sunbathing with his girlfriend.  Um, right, anyway.  He just won Pais Vasco, which requires just a smidge of fitness.  So I think he'll be ready just fine, thank you very much.    Surely, the fave for the Pink Shirt.  

Andreas Kloden.  If Contador doesn't win, maybe Klodie will. But I have to rank his chances lower, since he's not exactly cut in the supah climbah mold.  And this race?  All about the supah climbahs.  He recently won Tour of Romandie, so he's clearly on form.   It's hard to pick among the Astana, but he has to take second place behind Contador.  Which will be plenty familiar, riding as he did in the shadow of Ulle for so long.

Levi Leipheimer.  Do I think he's a fave?  Probably not.  But I fear the wrath of the Levi tifosi.   They don't give away podium places at the Tour, so one can't overlook Levi's chances here.  In a recent interview with Velonews (um, I think that's right), he sounded a tad gobsmacked at the notion of starting a grand tour this week.  That does not exactly bode well for his chances.  I also expected a tad more from him there at Georgia, especially on the Brasstown.  That said, he can climb, and he definitely doesn't suck against the watch.  Can Astana go 1-2-3?  I wouldn't bet on it, but they are certainly stacked with GC talent.  If this race turns into a repeat of last year's Tour?  I will definitely cry into my Chianti.  Reruns are so boring.

Denis Menchov. He's won the Vuelta, and consequently can't be overlooked. (Except by me. Thanks ursula!) The strong, silent type, Menchov climbs and time trials consistently well. He rode last year's Tour in the shadow of Cluck Cluck. It's hard to imagine him doing well with the mountains here, but then, he did win the Vuelta. What do I make of his chances? Somewhere in the top ten if all goes well, but I wouldn't rank him among the out and out faves.

Vladimir Karpets.  Word is he's the team leader at Caisse.  So not his course.  His hair alone weighs more than Ricco.  

Christian Vandevelde.  Not a fave to win.  Of the Slippies, he's probably the best shot at a GC finish, as there is not enough time trialing for Z.  My heart says top ten, my head says... Well, maybe not.  

Now...  Who'd I miss?