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Olympic Effects: How Do Chronomen Plan Their Summer?

Fabian Cancellara, modern patron of the time trials, has a pretty regular annual routine. Details may vary, but in general he gears up for a strong spring campaign, then finds a way to get ready for the Swiss Tour and Nats in June, then peaks a third time in September for the Worlds. Last year was a bit more typical one, where he took much of May off before warming up at Catalunya, stomping the competition in his home-country time trials, and riding a strong Tour de France. [In 2006 he rode the Giro instead, but otherwise the pattern was about the same.]

What this has generally meant is that Cancellara has a couple valleys between his many peaks, one of which occurs in August. In 2007, after making it all the way to Paris, Tony Spartacus took the start of the DeutschlandTour, presumably to ride the TTT and launch Jens! Voigt's successful GC bid, while he himself dropped out after three days for a month of rest. The year before that, he rode and won the Danmark Rundt, which says as much about the competition and Cancellara's form after sitting out the Tour. In '05, young Fabian stuck it out through the Tour and the DeutschlandTour, but only managed sixth in the latter's time trial. Verdict? Riding the Tour is not the best way to win in August.

Backing up, if you're a time trial specialist who isn't also on the short list of potential grand tour winners, the Olympics have to figure heavily into your planning. The Worlds, by comparison, happen every year, and usually late enough into the season to make most guys wonder if it's worthwhile. Also, guys in this group have few other chances at the big stage... a Tour TT stage win? Great, but most of the attention will be on the GC guys. A prologue? Again, fun, but quickly forgotten. An Olympic medal? As good as it gets. Moreover, a disproportionate number of chrono aces come from countries which don't follow cycling enough, but will be slavishly chained to the TV during the Olympics: Australia, the U.S., Britain, Russia to name a few.

So what does Cancellara do this year? Representing his home country in the Olympics is undoubtedly a big draw, but the race occurs on August 13, well into his habitual dead zone. Is it possible that the time trial patron will go to the Olympics in less than peak form? Can the legions of chronomen dying for a chance to upstage Cancellara start dreaming of gold? Or does CSC let him drop out of the Tour and rest up for Beijing?

If the latter, it should be a battle for Silver. From what I could find (and don't get me started on the state of the official Beijing Olympics "website"), it's a non-technical course, the type Cancellara outright owns. But he's a marquee name in France for CSC-Saxo, and winning Gold for Swiss Cycling is hardly Bjarne Riis' concern. So there's a good chance Cancellara hoofs it over Alpe d'Huez, up to Paris, and straight out of his peak form.

I have this daydream where the various non-GC chronomen at the Tour are milling around before the start of the first mountain stage, looking at each other to try to determine who's going to start. If Fabian starts, half of them run back to the hotel, gather up their stuff, and book their flight to Beijing. If Cance bails... hell, might as well stick it out at the Tour and try to win the last ITT. Anyway, we'll have a better idea of who's planning to contest the Olympics, but there will be some familiar names in the mix: Levi Leipheimer, who isn't very busy in July; Dave Zabriskie, who would be an A-list threat if he could recover from his Giro crash; Staf Clement; Stijn Devolder; Vlad Karpets; etc...

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Cancellara is great and all but

He doesn’t seem to be the most consistent when it really counts. He won the prologue last year but got stomped in the TTs. Cadel went and raced the warm up race on that course last year and I believe he won the TT, can’t remember. LL has July off, so I could see him doing a good TT in Beijing also. I think that the top TT guys can beat each other on any given day, depending on who is in form. You can always count on Cance to be good in the prologues and WCs, but his record is a bit dicey during other times of the year, kinda like Michael Rogers. He was great in the world championships, but tanked it in most other big time trials.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jun 11, 2008 4:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To Clarify

I was talking about the prologue and TTs in the Tour last year.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jun 11, 2008 4:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cadel

Yep, he won the preview ITT last summer. Participation wasn’t great, so I wouldn’t read too much into it, except that it’s a good course for traditional TTers.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jun 11, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Depending on his form,

?
Contador is going after the TT and RR at the Olympics…. Both are said to be hilly ones?

Apparently Dauphine is Levi’s last race in Europe this year, so he is not going for the WC or Vuelta, Missouri and US Champs are most likely then on his program… And the Olympics of course too…

by Bruce Suomi on Jun 11, 2008 4:24 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Olympics

It will be interesting to see how riders deal with the Tour-San Sebastien-Olympics-GP Plouay- Vuelta/Deutchland/Missouri series of races.

the Olympic TT is 17 days after the Tour so I wonder that perhaps that double might not be too hard to accommodate. Then the Olympics TT is 16 days before the opening of Deutchland and 17 before the Vuelta- also doable. So I can see Cancellara doing the full Tour then the Olympics successfully. But I wonder with guys like Cadel who is doing the Tour, the Olympics, AND the Vuelta…

by ursula on Jun 11, 2008 6:45 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yep

Valverde/Sastre are doing the same calendar as Cadel (excluding the Olympic TT)... but they could both skip the Vuelta if they win the Tour. It will be interesting to see who makes it to the Vuelta from them.
Contador has already confirmed that he is doing the Clásica a San Sebastián to prepare for the Olympics.

by King of Doping on Jun 11, 2008 7:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh great

Bert @ San Sebastian! More VDS points for the one person who has him.

Argh.

by ursula on Jun 11, 2008 7:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmm...

Oly crono is 2 weeks after the Tour? That isn’t too bad. If they don’t come into the Tour too hot – ie, with the goal of winning the prologue – the crono guys should come out okay, and actually by 2 weeks after should be on screaming form. It’s tight, though. Ideally, you’d almost want the Oly to be closer to Paris than two weeks, but I think it’s doable to ride both well.

Cadel generally holds form for a while once he finds it, which will help a great deal. Mostly, it depends on how much work these guys have to do for their teams. If they get some free, just ride your bike days, they should be fine. The guys who will have trouble are those who may have to ride in the wind day after day. So, like, Cadel’s team mates are hosed.

What’s more difficult is if they also want to peak for Worlds. That’s where the long summer will make things complicato. So if Cance normally takes a break after the Tour, he gets his time off, then he rebuilds for Worlds in October. Shifting that process out farther is going to cut it close for coming back onto form for Oct.. At the same time, no way do you hold it all the way from July to October. I think the guys riding the Tour-Oly will be fine. It’s winding it back up for Worlds that will be more difficult, and depend to some degree on how long a season they’ve already had.

by gavia on Jun 11, 2008 7:00 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ack..

just remembered, there is no prologue this year. all the more reason not to come in all hot and botheredlike.

by gavia on Jun 11, 2008 7:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good points

about the Worlds though. If Cance does the Tour and Olympics and wants to do the Worlds then I can’t imagine him @ Deutchland.

by ursula on Jun 11, 2008 7:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indeed

He’d need more peaks than Switzerland.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jun 11, 2008 7:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Olympic course profile
Contador is going after the TT and RR at the Olympics…. Both are said to be hilly ones?

The road race is hilly, i can say it looks a mountain stage, a 10km climb rode 7 times, great for Contador although doesn’t end in top. Don’t know the TT profile.

by aavf on Jun 11, 2008 7:43 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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