Power Poll- The Sprinters!
by ursula on Jul 12, 2008 2:32 PM EDT
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(With Chris gone I'm sooooooo tempted to put riders like Ten Dam, Dessel, Quinziato in this poll. But since I wouldn't see his reaction when he logged on, I'll stick with just the facts Jack.) (Movie reference anyone?)
What better time to rank the sprinters than right before the first mountain stage?So while Crashdan is looking ahead to the Pyrenees, let's take a look back at the sprinter competition. Its an interesting race for the green jersey as very possibly the best sprinter in the peloton might not don the green in Paris-
1. Mark Cavendish.
Super powers- Bad ass speed on the flats, his team train
Weakness- Any hills whatsoever.
Results- Two 1sts, one 10th.
Chance to wear Green in Paris- 20%
At age 23 this guy stands out as a cut above the rest of the fast guys in France. No one can touch him for sheer speed. His only peers are Benna and Boonen. The question of the day with this guy is should he try to make it all the way to Paris or will the mountains destroy his chances for Olympic track gold? Right now he's feeling his oats but a couple days in the Pyrenees may convince him to abandon- and if not there then the Alps. If he doesn't abandon though his green jersey chances go up and they will go up more if Kirchen gets removed from the yellow jersey competition as then the Columbia train might run down a break or two on the flats. Also if he stays the course he's now the big fave for winning the last stage. What do you think? Should he stick it out and try for the Green?
2. Oscar Freire.
Super powers- Fast on hills
Weaknesses- Paying attention.
Results so far- 9th, 7th, 7th, 2nd, 4th.
Chance to wear Green in Paris- 30%
Watching him contest the first two intermediate sprints on stage seven made the world realize that Oscar is in the Tour for the duration and he wants that Green in Paris. Given his climbing abilities and the fact that its likely that the three inter-mountains flat stages will feature successful breakaways, one has to think that he will in fact win that Green. He is paying attention and is getting stronger as the race is unfolding.
Breaking! Can Kirchen win the green?
Possible, but doubtful. Its possible IF he stays in the hunt for the yellow as he will then get points on mountain stages that the sprinters won't even sniff. However the odds still say that he will crumble on some mountain coming up soon- but still be in shouting distance of the lead. Remember the flat stages have greater point values to their finishes than the mountains so I give him only about a 10% chance for Green in Paris.
3. Thor Hushovd.
Super powers- Smashing things
Weaknesses- top end speed
Results so far- 15th, 1st, 8th, 4th, 9th
Chance to wear Green in Paris- 20%
Leaving aside Cav, Thor is in a nip and tuck race with Freire to Paris. He's already got a stage win, but I'm worried that he might be tiring a bit. If so his chances of winning the green in Paris are over.
4. Eric Zabel
Super powers- Ageless consistency
Weaknesses- fading top end speed and team train
Results so far- 22nd, 5th, 6th, 3rd, 6th
Chance to wear Green in Paris- 10%
This guy is just amazing. Only a slight chance to win any stage but he's 4th in points. But a win on any stage would be a fluke at this point. He knows what to do but he just can't quite do it any more. To be fair though his sprinting abilities at age 37 1/2 are better than anyone below here other than Ciolek. Could well finish above Hunter, Hushovd, and Cavendish which means that if Freire loses interest, Zabel could retire with a last green jersey. Somehow that would be fitting.
5. Robbie Hunter
Super powers- Endurance
Weaknesses- raw speed
Results so far- 4th, 12th, 6th, 10th
Chance to wear Green in Paris- 10%
I almost put him over Zabel cause I think Hunter will have a good 2nd half of the Tour. I resisted that impulse though because Zabel is money when it comes to high (top-5) placings.
6. Gerald Ciolek
Super powers- Oscar Freire Jr.
Weaknesses- lead out man for Cavendish
Results so far- 3rd, 2nd
Chance to wear Green in Paris- 5%
Younger than Cavendish by a year, closer to Hagen in age than Cav, the kid has some climbing ability that will do him well in the next decade. His chances for winning the Green depend on Cavendish dropping out and Kirchen blowing up. That would be fun as I'd like to see him on the end of the Columbia train too. I personally love this kid.
7. Robbie McEwen
Super powers- Crafty
Weaknesses- top end speed and no team support whatsoever
Results so far- 5th, 8th, 17th
Chance to wear Green in Paris- 2%
As we saw in the Giro, we are seeing the end of a long and beautiful career by a guy who can sure put his foot in his mouth. He can no longer seriously contest for the overall win so I wonder if he will stick it out through the mountains. I say no.
8. Roman Feillu
Super powers- He's French.
Weaknesses-He's French.
Results so far- 3rd, 13th, 11th
Chance to wear Green in Paris- 2%
Other than his successful breakaway I'm not sure how feillu and Casper are divvying up the sprinter responsibilities on Agritubel. They both tend to finish around each other i the bunch sprints about around 11th-14th places. Expect him to look for more breaks. Oh- he's one year older than Cav, two years older than Ciolek.
9. The Field: Forster, Casper, Duque, Steegmans, Flores, Chicchi, Cooke etc.
Chances for one of the to win in Paris- Only if massive injuries happen to the guys above. Give that a 1% chance. The guy I'm most surprised about is Steegmans- and if I'm surprised than you can bet Tinkoff are too. He did get 7th today but he had a lead out that a top notch sprinter has to put away and win. Otherwise his best finish is 12th.
Its interesting how Duque and Chicchi are called young and upcoming sprinters when they are both 28. Okay, since I'm interested in the sprinters' ages here's a table:
21- Hagen (eight months older than Ciolek)
22-Ciolek (Birthday is in September)
23- Cavendish, Rojas, Sutton, Martin
24- Feillu, Haussler, Weylandt
25- Serov
26- Greipel & Vaitkus
27-Napolitano, Haedo, Bazayev, Fernandez, Lorenzetto,
28- Boonen, Bennati, Duque, Steegmans, Chicchi
29-Brown
30- Forster, Cooke
31- Hunter, Flores, Usov
32- Casper
33-Dean
36-McEwen
37-Zabel
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Comments
THOR
I think he’ll be wearing green on the Champs. He seems to be in great shape and CA is there to win sprint stages.
I'm afraid you're right
about McEwen. It’s a shame, I’ve always liked him.
Unless I'm very much mistaken...
Benna and Boonen are both still 27. Their birthdays are in the autumn…
who is Martin? (23)
Tony Martin? He is a good time trialist and (maybe) a stage racer. He also worked for Cav in some Giro sprints but I don’t think he is any good in sprints
go oscar !!!
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Where
did you hear that Cav’s gping to Paris ?
He mentioned it in a post race interview today
That was on Versus. I remember he’s been saying the same things for a couple of days now.
He’s making noises that the eight days after the Tour and before the Olympics is enough down time.
We’ll see.
yep, he's been repeating that for a few stages now
this question will need to be revisited once we hit the big mountain stages.
Stapleton however
I’m listening to Stapleton talking on the Versus night coverage, who chuckled when told of Cav’s remarks and said the biggest challenge for the team is to hold Cav back. He didn’t say it outright but it was clear that he didn’t think Cav will go to Paris. Another tidbit: Stapleton mentioned that Columbia has like 20 riders in the Olympics. Wow.
Between Men and Women they certainly
have a strong group. I’m liking having Stapleton in the booth. It’s been a fun night listening to him.
And yep, the chuckle was good on Cav. :-)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Cav
“le Maillot Vert n’est pas un objectif”
http://www.velo101.com/actualite/default.asp?Id=14934&Section=Elites1
Sprinter fan
I like the sprinters competitions almost as much as I like the GC. I’m a little disappointed that the battle hasn’t been better, but it’s the course more than the riders. Plus, there don’t seem to be as many sprint teams this year.
I’m loving the Columbia successes so far. I think Kirchen will defend the yellow jersey to the detriment of the green one. From what I see, Cavendish is more worried about supporting Kirchen than trying to place consistently enough to wear green.
As of now, it looks like Freire has a pretty good shot at the green, but I think Thor will come out with it. He and his team are the most motivated. I was hoping for a better showing from Steegmans. He’s fast enough to win, but they can’t make it work for some reason. I wonder if Quick Step would assert more authority if Boonen was there. At any rate, the conventional wisdom at this point shows a close battle for the green jersey. Wouldn’t it be cool if Zabel could be close towards the end? I don’t see him winning a stage, but that’s not mandatory, is it?
Also, I don’t think that Robbie is at the end of his rope. Yeah, he’s off this year, but I could see him switching teams next year and getting some better results.
agreed about Robbie (ie. not at the end of his rope)
probably would do better with some support, particularly since in every interview with Cav he goes on and on about his great team and he couldn’t do it as well without his team etc. Yeah, I know McEwen has never had or really needed the full “leadout train”, but on the other hand he’s generally had someone to protect him and help him get up to the front so that he didn’t waste all his energy before the sprint (and when he’s had a good leadout man and they got the timing right, ie. Steegmans 2 yr ago, he was pretty dominant). This year from what I’ve read (interviews with McEwen, Hoste, etc) he’s sometimes had Hoste up to the 1 km mark then on his own.
But I can understand why he’s not getting the support this year (and I think McEwen does too) with the Lotto priority being Evans.
In terms of a new team for McEwen, too bad for him that the Australian PT team proposal that seems to be going forward (there were 2) isn’t the one with his friend’s backing (the Roamfree one, Tony Smith) but the other one… (his friend apparently lost a lot of money recently in some sort of share crisis).
Watching yesterday's sprint
it seems to me that Freire is assuming that Cav will drop out in the mountains a la Boonen. He saw Cav go and then just stayed with the front 5. As the second-biggest Oscarito fan here, even I have to say that if Cav gets to Paris he’ll win the jersey.
It also seems to me that Freire may be using the Tour to get into form to attempt an Olympics/Worlds double this year rather than to win the jersey—-he’s already announced he’ll be retiring at the end of his next contract, and this would be his last shot at the Olympics. (And a decent shot, assuming Bettini never fins his form and a small, classics-style bunch emerges in both races).
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