Post-Pyrenees Power Poll: Maillot Jaune

by Chris... on Jul 15, 2008 4:37 PM EDT in News

1. Cadel Evans ↔
Previous Ranking: 1
Current deficit: 0.00
Odds of winning: Strong, for now
His lack of a team and potential suffering from injuries has the sharks circling. Also, a one second lead is nothing to write home about. The team part is survivable, since his path to glory consists of managing the climbs and crushing the chrono. That injury part though...

2. Denis Menchov ↑
Previous Ranking: 5
Current deficit: 0.57
Odds of winning: middlin'
Folks are talking him up, but I still think his best chance of dropping Evans was in the Pyrenees. Having let that one pass, Menchov needs Evans to come undone, or grow wings in the Alps. Or beat him soundly in the final ITT. Nobody should be printing yellow Rabo kits yet.

3. Carlos Sastre ↑
Previous Ranking: 4
Current deficit: 1.28
Odds of winning: foreseeable
Sastre is the bellwether for team cycling. Compared straight up, it's unlikely Sastre's climbing advantage over Evans would outweigh his ITT deficit. But if Evans can be destroyed through teamwork, that's precisely what will happen.

4. Christian VandeVelde ↑
Previous Ranking: 12
Current deficit: 0.38
Odds of winning: The dream lives!
Too great a story ... I'm afraid to talk about it. Let's just say he's looking great, and if things fall his way... no, I'm not going there.

5. Frank Schleck ↑
Previous Ranking: 13
Current deficit: 0.01
Odds of winning: Volatile
CSC's plan seems to be to launch different riders in different phases. Schleck's almost-yellow position has to do with the fact that he was the team's weapon in the Pyrenees; Sastre will be the guy when the race is truly settled. Don't look for the team to literally defend Frank's spot here once the final strategy is unfurled, and I still don't think he can get away from Evans in the remaining big stages. Still... respect.

6. Riccardo Riccò ↑
Previous Ranking: 14
Current deficit: 2.29
Odds of winning: can lightning strike?
I actually view this as a conservative ranking. In theory, he's got a better chance than anyone to dethrone Evans. The remaining contenders are all guys whom Evans can (probably) match in the mountains and hold off in the final ITT. Ricco though... what if he's feeling great? What can Evans do to stop him? Add in his cadre of dominant climbers, and this is CSF all over again, without the insurmountable distance from the lead. Recent Tour history has included a lot of conservative racing, matching wheels, pressing small but certain advantages. But the longer history is full of pure climbers flying away and gaining chunks of time large enough to survive their crappy time trialing. For once, we have to at least consider this possibility.

7. Mikel Astarloza ↑
Previous Ranking: 9
Current deficit: 3.51
Odds of winning: still only technically a positive number
But for his team I might be trying to dump him out of the poll. Still, climbing isn't his strong suit and he managed his effort decently enough, so I should point out that, all things considered, he's having a solid Tour. Headed upward? Not too likely. Maybe Sanchez will wake up and lend some assistance.

8. Kim Kirchen ↓
Previous Ranking: 6
Current deficit: 1.36
Odds of winning: fading fast
Already covered yesterday. I hope he goes all-out for the Green Jersey. It's not a sprinters' jersey, there's more to it than that, and a Kirchen win would hammer that point home.

9. Bernhard Kohl ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 0.46
Odds of winning: Whoa... huh?
Little history to go by, so the possibilities range from flash-in-the-pan to the evolution of a new grand tour threat. In the '07 Tour he was bad in the Alps and solid in the Pyrenees. So we'll see if there's a weakness in Alpine climbs, or if the past just means nothing here. Honestly I have no idea.

10. Vlad Efimkin ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 2.32
Odds of winning: A French team? Sacre bleu!
Probably giving snarky looks to his former Caisse d'Epargne teammates over the hotel buffet as we speak. He's ranked higher than all of them, for now anyway. Like VandeVelde, this captaincy thing is a tad new. Unlike VandeVelde, he's likely to be headed the wrong way in the time trial.

11. Alejandro Valverde ↓
Previous Ranking: 2
Current deficit: 4.41
Odds of winning: Moving along...
Little to add. Are there guys who climb well in the Alps but not the Pyrenees? Not many. Maybe Sastre.

12. Vincenzo Nibali ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 4.18
Odds of winning: Nil.
Nibali, a Tour rookie, deserves a lot of credit for a terrific race so far. Hell, he's hardly ever raced in France. With Kreuziger dropping over seven minutes yesterday, Nibali becomes the team captain. The hope of a Sicilian Tour de France champion in my lifetime isn't dead.

13. Damiano Cunego ↓
Previous Ranking: 3
Current deficit: 5.37
Sinking like a stone all week. I look for him to battle on, as he did yesterday to limit his losses, but he just can't stay in his top gear consistently enough. If he drops enough time, he could be allowed to go for a stage win. Problem is, that Prato Nevoso stage will come before he can create that deficit. Ah well...

14. Sammy Sanchez ↓
Previous Ranking: 7
Current deficit: 4.46
Odds of winning: none... WTF?
This is rapidly turning into a lost season for Sammy. He's got one more downhill mountain finish to have some fun, but the podium is disappearing fast.

15. Juan Jose Cobo ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 2.10
Odds of winning: nah
Looks great, but he's working for Ricco. Eh, hard to say who's working for whom. Piepoli says Cobo's the captain. Probably comes down to whoever's feeling strongest on the big day(s).

OUT: Lovkvist, Soler, Andy Schleck, Zubeldia

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Wait...

Chris…were you about to write that CVV could be the next…Lance Armstrong? :-o

Once again…Sammy is just here for stage wins…how many time do we have to say this? sigh

by Hons on Jul 15, 2008 4:46 PM EDT 0 recs

Sammy

People say that all the time; it’s hard from a distance to know if they really, really mean it.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 15, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, I know

and I too really really wish that he was about to pull on a lighter shade of orange.

by Hons on Jul 15, 2008 5:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Me too...

but purely for VDS purposes!

by dheadrick on Jul 16, 2008 2:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'm not so sure of the Cobra

Of course his roadrunner-move on the Aspin was impressive but the fact remains that when he went, the heads of state looked a little at each other and decided to let it go. This won’t happen again. Ricco will always be able to accelerate away from the favourites but when they are really giving it full gas I doubt he will be able to open up big gaps (or even stay away) over a longer climb. He never got very big gaps in the Giro either ( because of that traitor Sella!) And he needs to go early and gain lots of time considering he TTs like Monty Burns.

by Jens on Jul 15, 2008 5:03 PM EDT 0 recs

i think at least

he wants to keep the white jersey, and the win in Alpe d’Huez stage, of course.

by semprenaroda on Jul 15, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Alpe d'Huez

Whoever wins that stage will put serious time into most if not al of the riders mentioned here.

by ursula on Jul 15, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

If

they themselves are a rider mentioned here.

by Hons on Jul 15, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ah yes.

Good catch.

by ursula on Jul 15, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cobra's hematocrit

Just returned from France where I read an article in Le Figaro that claims our boy Ricco has naturally occurring abnormally high-levels of hematocrit (over 50%). So it wouldn’t surprise me to see him improve in the standings. Given the length of the last time trial, though, he will need a big lead after Alpe d’Huez in order to stay ahead of the big boys. The article in the Figaro is here: http://www.lefigaro.fr/sport/2008/07/12/02001-20080712ARTFIG00029-le-charme-veneneux-de-riccardo-ricco-.php

by SportsAcademic on Jul 15, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

hematocrit

yep, it’s mentioned in his wikipedia profile that Saunier Duval had a lab examine him and certify his over-50 natural level.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 15, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Man... if I had a dollar...

... every time I had to go to the doctor to have my hematocrit level verified…

After a hard day of watching a Tour stage, I like to unwind with Verbotene Liebe

by crashdan on Jul 15, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Me too

Doctor: “do you have any red blood cells?”

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 15, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Loving the Ricco

Glad he’s animating the Tour. Maybe I should expand my praise to the entire SDV team. After seeing Piepoli gift two stages in the Giro last year, I’m more than happy to see him win one in the Tour.

by dheadrick on Jul 16, 2008 2:09 AM EDT up 0 recs

I guess we are back to Wheelsucking

I don’t see anyone gaining more than 90 seconds on Cadel, which means that we are back to the 2007 Cadel-as-wheelsucker, and not the 2008 Cadel-as-aggressor version we saw in Paris-Nice and elsewhere. And the only wheels Cadel needs to follow are Menchov and (possibly) CVV.

That’s a real bummer IMHO. We could see exciting stages, but I fear the GC is going to be a race for 2nd unless Cadel blows up.

The folks that could’ve made this an interesting GC (SamSan, VV, the Kid, even Schumi and dare I say Stijn) have fallen by the wayside. Valverde is the biggest bummer for me, because I loved how he crushed the Dauphine.

by samboo on Jul 15, 2008 5:17 PM EDT 0 recs

You're right

Although nobody likes hearing it, you don’t need to be aggressive if the others aren’t really a threat. That’s boring, but Cadel will be aggressive when he has to be. Anyways, didn’t we establish that it’s not wheelsucking, it’s sempre na roda?

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 15, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah,

some text from cyclingtv confirms that.

Sorry americans, but i think Leipheirmer is the pure whellsucker.

by semprenaroda on Jul 15, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

don't debate levels of wheelsucking

At least Levi tried to attack the Chicken for AC last year. And that was the best day last year. Just gimme a day of Cattle doing that and I will be happy with him in Yellow in Paris.

by samboo on Jul 15, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cadel and Menchov were sharing the load

Looks like they were riding for 1st and 2nd. They were trading turns on the front. Cadel clearly has the skills to win the Tour. So, does that mean that Menchov thinks he can hang in the time trials, or does he think he will take time in the Alps?

by dheadrick on Jul 16, 2008 2:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

There's more than a little irony going on here

Valverde, a Spaniard, can’t climb in the Pyrenees and Kohl, an Austrian, can’t climb in the Alps. Is this the twilight zone?

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 15, 2008 5:22 PM EDT 0 recs

Great write up Chris

I read what your stuff above and try to debate otherwise but those counter points just don’t make sense. I guess I’d move Kirchen down some- and his chances for Green are hard what with Freire and his climbing ability paying serious attention for once. Kohl I agree- no one really knows.

I can imagine Evans getting seriously dropped somewhere in the Alps though. I mean its a given; he needs to guess correctly on whom to follow and who to let go. I can;t wait to se how that plays out: the first attackers on the 1st Alpine stage won’t be the main attackers.. or will they be?

by ursula on Jul 15, 2008 5:58 PM EDT 0 recs

There is, right now, the strong possibility of Ricco ...

... riding himself into Yellow on either the Galibier, Col de la Foux de Fa Fa or Alpe d’Huez, based on how he was able to attack the last two stages. His accelerations cannot be matched by Evans or Sastre, possibly by Menchov… and depending on the timing… by CVV. He could easily get the 2 1/4 minutes he needs for Yellow (but would 80% lose it in the TT). If he takes Peeps or Cobo with him… look out.

After a hard day of watching a Tour stage, I like to unwind with Verbotene Liebe

by crashdan on Jul 15, 2008 6:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Gonna be fun

he too may have a high-alpine ceiling that’s yet to be discovered. After all, his Giro and Tour wins were all on minor climbs, and in the Giro he tended to accelerate away from Contador on the really hard stuff only in the last KM or so. We haven’t seen him on the highest roads of Europe leaving his opponents for 10km and putting huge gaps into them. But…we might. We just might.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 15, 2008 7:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

a minor point

For the first time in a while, the tour is hitting some seriously high stuff (thanks cyclingchallenge).

Of the folks in the top10, who does it favor to have to ride climbs that hit, dare I say it, Boulderesque altitudes?

by R Mc on Jul 15, 2008 7:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

hmm.

don’t think this is really an issue – they all prepare at altitude. for someone who is fit and who has experience with altitude it shouldn’t be a decisive factor.

by gavia on Jul 15, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not an exercise physiologist

or any “ist” actually, but I wonder if the hight altitude impacts some riders more and it is not as much of an equal handicap that slows them all down by the same percentage? I have read that for those foolish enough to try to climb big mountains, like Everest, some get altitude sickness much worse than others even when they all acclimatize following the exact same program. Probably an apples to oranges kind of comparison since the altitudes we are talking about in the tour are so much lower than that, but still. Anyone got that Alan Lum guy’s phone number? Nikki?

by Jimbo... on Jul 15, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes.

It does vary across individuals, sometimes significantly. I know a guy who tried in his early career to race mountain bikes, but couldn’t take the altitude. In his case, the dry heat also was a problem he just couldn’t crack. However, we’re not talking Everest heights here. They’re climbing mountains that top out around 8000 ft. For most people, that’s right around where it starts to matter. There are some people who simply can’t go above that – no matter what they do, the 10,000 foot stuff is just impossible for them. But that’s not what we’re dealing with here, and all of these guys have trained at altitude and raced at it before. If they couldn’t do it, they would not have made it this far in the sport. When the European guys came over to race the Coors Classic, where the altitude happened at the end of the race and was silly Colorado high, many of them suffered like dogs. It was much much higher than they were used to, and for much more prolonged amounts of time, ie, the base altitude was higher, not just the peaks.

I don’t want to make it sound like nothing to race at altitude, if you aren’t used to it, yeah, it’s hard. But it’s not that big of a deal at the heights we’re talking about here, for guys who have had the resources to prepare for it.

by gavia on Jul 15, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

No phone # but an email address - tee hee :-)

Actually, if you comment or drop the Garmin site an email they actually are kind of cool in responding. If the comment is put in a tech entry they usually respond to it right back in the comments. Pretty cool fan fun over there. ;-)

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 15, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hampsten!

No wait…

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 15, 2008 8:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

According to Piepoli and Cobo

Cobo is still Saunier’s leader for the GC. Ricco says he just wants to win Alpe d’Huez.

by mysterion on Jul 15, 2008 7:16 PM EDT 0 recs

When that reads "According to Ricco"...

... then I think it will be more solid :) Until then… this will be Ricco’s post stage interview.

After a hard day of watching a Tour stage, I like to unwind with Verbotene Liebe

by crashdan on Jul 15, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

You got that right!

I can;t remember- does Ricco yet talk about himself in the 3rd person yet? If not maybe we should have a poll.

by ursula on Jul 15, 2008 9:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Would it be a great quote if Ricco said...

“Ricco doesn’t talk about himself in the third person”

After a hard day of watching a Tour stage, I like to unwind with Verbotene Liebe

by crashdan on Jul 16, 2008 12:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

Nice analysis Chris

I think you really summarized the current picture….and like many here I am dismayed that Evans and Menchov will be wheel sucking away…ugh! Here’s to another CSC attack….to SD and Ricco lighting it up….and according to the spanish sites, Cd’E have some plans for the Alps and trying to get a podium spot sooooo Evans-Menchov may not be a done deal.

Thanks again Chris…always a good read!

by steph- on Jul 16, 2008 3:51 PM EDT 0 recs

Nice work indeed Chris

But I think you missed one thing.. Cobo 15th?! He is heading for the podium.. His ambition or a favourite rated him 5th place.. Although I think he is the dark horse and can finish podium.. He has some serious firework in the mountains and his TT is not that bad as Ricco’s…

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 17, 2008 4:40 AM EDT 0 recs