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Playing the Numbers Game

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Post-Race Show! Stage 15: Embrun-Prato Nevoso

Here are today's stage results and the new general classification.

Star-divide

Early Escape. An early move of three riders broke free from the main field, and since they sat several time zones away from the top of the classification, the bunch allowed them a free hand. Egoi Martinez of Euskaldi-Euskatel, Simon Gerrans of Crédit Agricole, and Danny Pate of Team Garmin comprised the break. At 150 km to go, they held a six minute advantage, at 60 km to go, they had round about 15 minutes. Plainly, the teams for the classification intended to play their own game today.

Col Agnel. Under rainy skies, over wet roads, the bunch ascended the Col Agnel. The bunch kept it relatively tranquilo, but not tranquilo enough for Stijn Devolder, who went out the back and into the team car. End of Tour for Devolder. Over the top of the climb, the break held a gap of 14.30. The main field remained compatto, and all the favorites made it over the summit together. Not so for the descent, which saw a dramatic crash for Oscar Pereiro of Caisse d'Épargne. He left the race, and reports now confirm a broken collarbone, tibia and fibula for the former Tour winner.

Across the long straight valley road between the climbs, the bunch worked sporadically to keep the break from running out the clock. Lampre, perhaps with thoughts of the stage win or maybe just seeking some teevee time, rode hard on the front, but made little dent in the Martinez-Gerrans-Pate group. As the kilometers ticked down toward the final climb, CSC-Saxo Bank began contributing to the chase in an effort to put pressure on the main field. Sörensen and OGrady did the work, setting up the climb for their team mates.

Prato Nevoso. As the main field reached the lower slopes of the final climb, CSC sent Jens Voigt to the front, with the usual consequences. The bunch quickly strung out and splits opened up almost immediately. Andy Schleck took over where Jens left off, and soon the bunch had dwindled to an intimate group of favorites. After repeated accelerations from Andy, only Cadel Evans, Fränk Schleck Christian Vandevelde, Bernard Kohl, Denis Menchov, Carlos Sastre and Alejandro Valverde remained. CSC held the advantage of three riders in the front group, and proceeded to use it.

Up the road, the threesome still held some six minutes advantage and began to play for the stage win. Inside la flamme rouge, Danny Pate of Team Garmin made the first move, but the legs failed him. Simon Gerrans of Crédit Agricole unleashed his sprint, and neither of the others could responde. Gerrans crossed the line first, and won his first Tour de France stage.

Behind, the skirmishes among the favorites continued without respite for the embattled yellow jersey, Cadel Evans. For it was not only CSC who put the pressure on yellow jersey Cadel Evans. Bernard Kohl of Gerolsteiner put in a pair of big attacks, one of which finally stayed away. Denis Menchov, though he slid out on an uphill (!) corner, also did his share to turn the screws.

After a flurry of attacks and counter attacks, Bernard Kohl, Denis Menchov, and Carlos Sastre succeeded in achieving a gap on the other gc contenders (with Valverde still along for the ride.) While Fränk Schleck sat on and Andy dangled a short distance off the back, Evans had no choice but to do the hard work of defending the jersey on his own. With less than 1 kilometer to go, Fränk Schleck made the predictable move to secure the 1 second he needed to take over the yellow jersey. Evans had no answer, and was quickly distanced. In the end, not only Schleck, but also Kohl overtook Evans lead, though the gaps remain very close. Less than 1 minute separates the top six in the general after this stage.

Classifications. The general classification re-arranged itself on the final climb to Prato Nevoso. Fränk Schleck of CSC-Saxo Bank now wears the yellow jersey of race leader, followed by Bernard Kohl of Gerolsteiner at 7 seconds, Cadel Evans of Silence-Lotto at 8 seconds, Denis Menchov of Rabobank at 38 seconds, Christian Vandevelde of Team Garmin at 39 seconds, and Carlos Sastre of CSC-Saxo Bank at 49 seconds. In the young riders classification, Vincenzo Nibali of Liquigas still leads team mate Roman Kreuziger by 1.53. Meanwhile, Oscar Freire's hold on the points jersey became more secure with the abandon of Mark Cavendish of Team Columbia. In the mountains classification, Bernard Kohl of Gerolsteiner has taken over the lead from his team-mate Sebastien Lang.

1 recs | Comment 134 comments

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Gav

never misses a beat

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 20, 2008 11:58 AM EDT   0 recs

lol

except when i sleep in ;-)

fun stage!

by gavia on Jul 20, 2008 11:59 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good for Frank to wear yellow... :-)

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:00 PM EDT   0 recs

Great riding from our break!

Good for Gerrans and oh Pate, I so hope you are smiling with a 3rd in your first ever Tour!!!!

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:01 PM EDT   0 recs

Forgot Kreuz

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 12:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Pate shouldn't be disappointed in his ride

He stayed with some VERY good climbers today. VERY impressive!

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 12:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Man, so many good rides!!!

Gerrans, Pate, CVV, Kohl. Also, Menchov looks super strong. WAY to soon to rule out Cadel even though many here would like to.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 12:01 PM EDT   0 recs

And Menchov's ride after a fall up the damn climb -

Way impressed!

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

fast climbing

if you slide out in a corner! gah.

by gavia on Jul 20, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

2nd stage I tried to ESP C to follow Kohl... :-(

STILL – great job by him today!!! Two more monster stages and a TT for a chaser!

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:02 PM EDT   0 recs

Danny Pate...

... apparently not used to being interviewed. Welcome to the Major’s meat.

Ricco stole my marbles.

by crashdan on Jul 20, 2008 12:03 PM EDT   0 recs

Danny's melting my heart...

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:04 PM EDT   0 recs

+1

What a sweet guy. Great interview.

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 20, 2008 12:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Nah... C is cool with my love of his teammates.

He got used to it at CSC and says it’s A-Okay! :-)
He knows he is my favorite and Will knows he comes in next.
These guys are good friends – all for one good vibes.

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

How

can Danny pate be dissappointed??! Dude, you are living the dream! You made it to the big show, and came in third on a crazy uphill stage

by giant rider on Jul 20, 2008 12:04 PM EDT   0 recs

I think Will said it best...

They would not be the riders they are with not wanting to push for that win.
Give them a day for it to sink in and all of us to applaud them and they realize just how awesome they did.
So close it’s hard to not be bummed 10 seconds after crossing the line.

Still melts my heart though.

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This is a thriller

Looking forward to stage 16, but especially stage 17!

Maybe this tour won’t be decided by the TT.

by KevinK on Jul 20, 2008 12:05 PM EDT   0 recs

Pate

Needs to go to interview school. I love that he has no idea what the names of the other guys in the break were

by Jimbo... on Jul 20, 2008 12:06 PM EDT   0 recs

That was hilarious

he was like a little kid after his first bike race. He might as well had said the orange rider and they guy in the green shorts.

by australopithecine on Jul 20, 2008 11:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He knew their team names

I read somewhere else, probably someones blog over on missing saddle, about how Pate doesn’t remember anyone’s name. They were giving him a good measure of crap about that.

by Jimbo... on Jul 20, 2008 11:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There are a few (Brad Huff comes to mind) that give him some crap.

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 21, 2008 12:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Here's one of Brad's entries

that had some fun with Pate. I know I’ve read several others but I think this is one the more recent ones.

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 21, 2008 12:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That one was good.

Throwing in some humor too :-)
I would imagine this one was after a few minutes of rest to recover too which is always good. 10 seconds off the line has to be hard to put together.

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 22, 2008 2:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What do you mean

tomorrow’s a rest day?? what am I going to do all morning?

by giant rider on Jul 20, 2008 12:06 PM EDT   0 recs

sleep :-)

or something…

by gavia on Jul 20, 2008 12:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

cool for Gerrans and CA

this should help to get a new sponsor

by lyne on Jul 20, 2008 12:08 PM EDT   0 recs

si

here’s hoping. that was a good ride from that kid.

by gavia on Jul 20, 2008 12:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If Menchov had not crashed,

would he be in yellow now?

Great stage anyway, from everyone.
Hope OP gets well soon too, awful crash he had.

by Bruce Suomi on Jul 20, 2008 12:08 PM EDT   0 recs

I doubt it

Menchov can climb for sure, but he can’t attack on the climbs like Sastre and FS

by Jimbo... on Jul 20, 2008 12:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fantastic stage...

... unbelievable action.

Ricco stole my marbles.

by crashdan on Jul 20, 2008 12:12 PM EDT   0 recs

GC

1. Frank Schleck +63h57′21″
2. Bernhard Kohl +7″
3. Cadel Evans +8″
4. Denis Menchov +38″
5. Christian Vande Velde +39″

by PopUp Rolen on Jul 20, 2008 12:15 PM EDT   0 recs

C pulling some modesty... so sweet. :-)

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:15 PM EDT   0 recs

CVV holds up his arm showing road rash... says...

“I got a cool tattoo”

Ricco stole my marbles.

by crashdan on Jul 20, 2008 12:15 PM EDT   0 recs

How young is he? Mid 20's?

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Makes

him look about 12 years old

by giant rider on Jul 20, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And

speaks French with a perfect Aussie accent.

by Monty. on Jul 20, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Applying the 3 minute rule - we're down to 7 riders for the win

1 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC – Saxo Bank 63.57.21
2 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) Gerolsteiner 0.07
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence – Lotto 0.08
4 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 0.38
5 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30 0.39
6 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC – Saxo Bank 0.49
7 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia 2.48

Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland

by natbla on Jul 20, 2008 12:17 PM EDT   0 recs

Top 6 under a minute... wowza!

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Can someone give me an idea of the TT capabilities of the top 5?

I know Evans and CVV are probably the favorites of the bunch and someone earlier said Kohl doesn’t have a chance but what about Frank and Menchov?

Ricco stole my marbles.

by crashdan on Jul 20, 2008 12:17 PM EDT   0 recs

I was under the impression Frank needs a 2 minute buffer at least.

Holds his own but not top TT’r. Maybe hope for top 12 on stage?

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

too soon for that :-)

we got too many mountains before we can talk cronos… but menchov does a fab ride against the watch…

by gavia on Jul 20, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yep

fave to win, unless he has a jours sans in the alpes. looked solid today, though.

by gavia on Jul 20, 2008 12:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Evans is the best time triallist by a good stretch, especially in the long ITT

He has the best record against the watch by quite a ways. Menchov and Evans are pretty close to each other ability wise and Kohl and Schleck are sheit, sorry but true.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 12:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sounds exciting

Can’t wait to watch my tape when I get home later.

by BDBrian on Jul 20, 2008 12:19 PM EDT   0 recs

I would suggest actually watching it all. :-)

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's the plan

And thankfully, I’ll have tomorrow to watch it if I don’t see it all today. Glad I’ll be able to see Tuesday and Wednesday in full.

by BDBrian on Jul 20, 2008 12:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gerolsteiner

Having a great tour. Hope it helps for the sponsor search

by PopUp Rolen on Jul 20, 2008 12:20 PM EDT   0 recs

+1

Kohl is riding up to expectations finally. CA looking good in the sponsor hunt as well.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 12:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Kohl's dental display

Oy.. Cries out for some sort of orthodontal intervention. Maybe Gerrans can speak to him.

by NE Observer on Jul 20, 2008 12:22 PM EDT   0 recs

Oscar Pereiro

Fractured shoulder, tibia and fibula. Not femur as earlier reported but still a broken leg. Luckily he never lost consciousness and was able to phone his wife from the back of the ambulance.

by Monty. on Jul 20, 2008 12:35 PM EDT   0 recs

ouch

poor dude :-(

by gavia on Jul 20, 2008 12:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Honey,

I’m gonna be late for dinner!

by giant rider on Jul 20, 2008 1:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sastre impressed me today

He hasn’t shown me squat in quite some time, so his ride today was great to see. But he will need to keep doing that if he wants to win this. Schleck got a small gap, but didn’t look especially good to me, not good enough to win this thing.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 12:35 PM EDT   0 recs

Carlos got cheers for me for his ride today - good to see!!!

Loved little Andy way more than Frank today. I so wish he had not lost those minutes.

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 20, 2008 1:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Quick calculations

Main GC contenders from the stage 4 ITT (with respect to Evans)

Evans
Menchov +.07
CVV +.10
Sastre +1.16
Kohl +1.20
F Schleck +1.47

Final ITT a fair bit longer too, but based on this, Menchov, CVV and Evans would be the favourites.

Man, it’s going to be damn close!!!

Well done Simon Gerrans – great to see an Aussie win!

by slowK on Jul 20, 2008 12:44 PM EDT   0 recs

yes

although recovery plays into this somewhat, so you will sometimes get different results in the third week than in the first.

by gavia on Jul 20, 2008 12:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The order for Evans, Menchov, and CVV seem right

And should be about the same, placing wise, for the final ITT. The difference will be in the time gaps. Evans will most likely, based on history, have the best ride of the lot in the final ITT. Menchov isn’t the most consistent, good, but not the most consistent. Kohl, Schleck, and Sastre are not now and will probably NEVER be good time triallists. Not when you measure them against the other GC guys. If they can’t climb loads better, they probably can’t get enough time. Sastre’s climbing well, for now, but you never know about Schleck. He didn’t look like a Tour winner today. The same could be said about Evans except that Cadel won’t win the Tour in the mountains, he’ll win in the TT. He has to limit losses and go from there. Now that they got a tough stage in their legs, they will want to keep them loose tomorrow and they should be good on Tuesday, at least that’s the hope anyways.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 1:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Of course this is all speculation

But speculation is based on history which more often than not pans out.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 1:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Shoes before socks, eh?

Just to disagree but if Sastre and Menchov and Kohl- or any one of them- can put a proportional amount of time into Evans and CVV on the next two (and harder) stages that they did today than Evans’ supposed ITT advantage will be moot. Menchov in particular looks quite scary while Evans looked weak and CVV about the same- weak.

by ursula on Jul 20, 2008 2:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dude, just speculating

But, history is clearly on Evans’ side. Also, considering that Evans was being attacked by EVERYBODY and still limited his losses, I would say that he looked great today. Same with CVV. Shoes before socks? Is that some clever way of saying counting your chickens before they’re hatched? New one on me. Anyways, you can never discount history as well as, you never know how deep Sastre and co. had to go to take time on Evans and CVV. I know everybody wants something unexpected to happen, but that just isn’t usually the case. Also, Evans’ time trial advantage is not supposed, it’s proven time and time and time again. If your going to disagree just to disagree, as you stated above, state something besides the obvious.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 2:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ha! Good points!

Okay here’s something obvious- For two years now Evans has proven that he can’t keep up with the best climbers of the Tour. (Actually for every year but I’m just looking at this year and last when he was threatening to win the damn thing.) Last year it cost him the overall win and he barely hung on to 2nd. We got two more stages where it makes sense that he won’t keep up again. He’s bleeding and he’s going just as deep as anyone to cut his losses as its clear that he didn’t want to tactically lose the yellow jersey.

He’s gonna get attacked and dropped again two more times. Next time its likely that he’ll wind up somewhere in 5-6th place overall with upwards of a minute lost to the GC leader. L’Alpe will be worse. To me its looking that like Valverde he may have peaked a bit too soon and will lose minutes on Tuesday and Wednesday. He’s not that good of a TTist to make that up.

by ursula on Jul 20, 2008 3:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So you're clearly not an Evans fan

I can respect that. If he loses the Tour it won’t be because everyone else is better, it will be because he has a sorry ass team. He timed his peak perfectly. He wasn’t good coming in like Valverde was, he is just now coming good but the fact is that he is not a climber. I just cannot get behind Sastre. I have given him years to get his shit together and so far, nada. Nobody can say the this is the first year that he has a good team. He’s always had a good team and I doubt this year is going to be much better, maybe a podium place this year, but not a win. I agree that Menchov looks good, but again, he’s never shown that he really has the goods to win this thing, so until he has an insurmountable lead going into the time trial, I can fully get behind him either and he ALWAYS has a horrible day. Kohl and Schleck, riding well, but not well enough to win the Tour. Nobody will ever convince me that Schleck the Elder is a legit threat, he’s just not good enough and Kohl, seriously?! Not this year, if ever.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 5:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No

You are quite wrong in saying I’m not an Evans fan. I just don’t let it get in the way of looking at the race.

by ursula on Jul 20, 2008 6:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't either

I just prefer not to look at worst case, but more at history. The scenario you described above may indeed play out that way, but there is generally precedent for spectacular failures like that and with Evans those don’t exist. Be the bringer of doom if you want but I don’t think that everyone else is as good as others here at PdC believe. They GC riders this year are pretty much the same as always, the only difference is that Evans has progressed while the others haven’t. If there’s a way that Evans can win, he will.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 20, 2008 7:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

2002 Giro

Granted, it was Evans’ first GT, but were it not for Dario Frigo’s even more spectacular implosion on that same stage, Evans’ collapse in pink would be remembered as one of the more impressive in the genre.

by R Mc on Jul 20, 2008 9:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Erk,

sorry, R, but I only remember Evans sad day, not Frigo’s… what happened?

by hughw on Jul 20, 2008 11:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Same stage

1 or 2 k before Evans blew up, Frigo just shut down.

Relive the fun:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2002/giro02/?id=results/stage17

by R Mc on Jul 21, 2008 12:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

although

I got it wrong—Evans lost 17 minutes to Frigo’s 10

by R Mc on Jul 21, 2008 12:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs