Mench might be able to do it in the Alps. Looked super strong today.

Carlos rode great as well, but will need to go super duty to get enough cusion… and Damsgaard won’t like him if he does.

Frank... see Carlos.

CVV a sentimental fav and a shot at the podium.

I would still say Evans, Menchov, and Vandevelde is the order of the favorites. The climbers (Sastre, Schleck, and Kohl) have to put chunks of time into Evans, Menchov, and Vandevelde if they want to win. Really, all VdV has to do is shadow Menchov and Cadel unless they completely blow and his TT abilities should carry him to the podium.

I agree that you have to back one rider for the win and that rider only. If it’s going to be Schleck, then it’s gotta be Schleck. If it’s gonna be Sastre, then it’s gotta be Sastre. Splitting yours forces is never good. It doesn’t matter who on the team wins a long as someone wins. I seriously think that Carlos is the man for CSC but since Schleck was so close, they figured they would pick up the jersey as a consolation prize of sorts. I just don’t think Schleck is the man for the overall. He’s never shown Tour winning ability in the past and I don’t think we’re seeing it right now either. Plenty on this site would disagree and say that Evans is going to lose tons of time and finish well of the podium. Don’t listen to them, they’re the same people who believed that Ricco actually rode like that naturally.

With Schleck in the jersey now, there is no way he is going to ride tempo for Sastre. If anything, it will be reversed. I really think Sastre is their best shot at a high placing, but I don’t see the Schlecks riding in support of him as long as Frank is in yellow.

Normally, I think CSC is a tactically sound team, but I don’t agree with their tactics in this case. (yes, this is rather presumptuous of me as they obviously know much more about their own team than I do).

come Tour time.

The question is how much time will Evans lose? Considering that CSC will keep attacking the next two stages, Kohl looking like the strongest climber, and Menchov also looking stronger than Evans or CVV the idea that Evans and CVV can basically wheelsuck their way to stay close enough to regain the lead in the TT, while plausible, will be put under a real severe test considering that today’s stage was the easiest to the three Alps stages.

The idea of CSC needing to ride for one or they are doomed is um, well look at last year with Disco and Contador and Leipheimer. It wasn’t a problem with them was it?

Finally, the only one to show Tour winning ability is Menchov. Evans has never shown the ability to close the deal.

Went to get time on Evans. If there’s one thing that Evans is good at is measuring his efforts. If he learned anything from last year, it’s ride your own tempo and let everyone else riding above their limits and then claw your way back. Eventually those others won’t be able to keep it up and you’ll lose less time/gain some back. If he would have done that more last year, he may have won.

He, Floyd, :~>, Cioni too, all mtb pedigrees, which I like.

and I could see any one of these guys take the final prize. I don’t see that any of these contenders has shown that he can simply ride away from the others and gain large chunks of time. That said, Evans looked very vulnerable in the closing kilometer today, and it is not inconceivable that all those on the short list could put a few minutes into the Australian in the two mountain stages before the final TT. Will a few minutes be enough?

Whoever is wearing the yellow jersey in that final TT is a good bet to win. I don’t care if it’s Kohl, CVV, Schlek, Sastre, Menchov, or of course, Evans. The jersey has a way of tranforming a cyclist, and they tend to ride out of their skin. Kohl looked to be quite strong today and seems to be getting better; he’s my pick (plus he’s on my VDS squad), but I want CVV to win.

Maybe I am mixing them up with someone else. If not, Kohl is gonna be a fantastic pick up for somebody.

Menchov seems to be the strongest rider in the GC contenders so far, and who knows what would have happened today had he not fallen when launching his attack. His weakness though would be his team (or lack thereof).

Sastre looked good on the climb but didn’t seem to have the final oomph to drop Menchov who is a much better TTist than the Spanish rider. But on Sastre’s side of course is the very strong CSC/-Sexy back team. And imo, so far CSC has been riding for Sastre, and today’s move to put F Schleck in the jersey was part of the strategy. There is no question that the team will ride for their leader, that has never been a problem on that team and they are nothing like TMobile in that aspect.

I think that Evans will crack on Wednesday, I don’t think he can handle the pressure well especially with no team support.

Kohl is the biggest unknown at this point for me. CVV is riding great and will follow the others as much as he can but I don’t see him overtaking Menchov.

and we all know how much I love him – I so would just love to see him win this whole damn thing. Knowing C a little and having followed him for years, we have not seen him pushed outside his limits yet. He (IMO) rides within his limits and tries to make the most of his efforts not going into deep red, thus why we seem him drift back a bit and then come right back. And I again say, he will be improving everyday that’s left.

IMO, for C to win though, he needs to come around Cadel and Menchov and not just follow them. If he follows them, he will probably podium. BUT, if he gets it drilled in his head that he CAN win this and makes some moves before he sees moves go off the front (or at least goes with those moves earlier) he CAN win this. I love him to death and am super proud and so happy for him, regardless how this ends. I think he can win though if he takes it a little more into his own hands instead of following trying to play it a little safer. Not that “that” is at all a dumb move for him but I believe if he moves around them instead of watching them, he could do it and do it with serious style. :-)

But to answer your question.. Menchov looking very solid. VDV and Kohl are gonna have a bad day.. Almost impossible to ride a perfect Tour when it’s your firstcompetitive ride. Sastre gonna suffer seriously, 1,30 to 2 min, in the 50+ and evans.. Nah don’t want to win so it’s have to be Menchov!