The only one I would add is intelligence. One of the most impressive attributes of successful grand tour champions is their ability to see red, and back it down to yellow before blowing a gasket. We all love risk takers, but loss limiters are equally as important.

I think this will be a huge factor for CVV. It’s inevitable, in my opinion, that he is going to get dropped at least once over the next two stages. I love the guy as a rider, but I just don’t see how he can continue to match wits against some of the best climbers in the world. I think if he rides his race, and doesn’t worry about keeping up with the Joneses, he could be in position to take the bottom step of the podium with a great time trial.

1. Winning a Grand Tour trumps losing a Grand Tour.

2. Evans is the only contender who has consistently gotten better. Last three years going back: 2nd, 4th, 8th.
(Kohl has only been in one Tour, last year, finishing 31st.)

To me this shows that Evans is consistently a threat and he’s gotten a little better each year. The question is does this progression mean that he’s bound to place higher than previously or that he’s bound to place high? I feel more comfortable with the later than the former. At this point in the Tour one can make the case that any of the top seven are bound to place very high and that two of them- Evans and Sastre in that order- have the best pedigree. In finishing high in the final Tour standings.

3.I would say that CSC has easily the strongest team this year by a wide margin and that wasn’t the case in previous years. Maybe only in 06 did they have the strongest team. They also have their strongest team compared to years past. They are also more focused on winning- by whomever- than before.

4. TTing is huge. Evans is the best and he should be better than the rest of the competitors with Menchov and CVV being the closest.

BUT you have to be careful here in projecting to the final Tour TT. Two years ago Evans beat Menchov in that last TT by 52 seconds. Evans beat Sastre by only a 1:01. The closeness between Evans and Menchov is not surprising but Sastre? Maybe the info we tell ourselves has been wrong when it comes to the final Tour days.

Then last year in the final TT (only) 20km in the Vuelta, Evans beat Sastre by only 22 seconds (and CVV tied Sastre). And Menchov beat Evans in that TT by 7 seconds.

What does this mean to me? I would place Evans as the favorite but only by a small margin over Menchov and CVV and Sastre are not that far behind- not when they have something to ride for. As for F Schleck and Kohl, they have never been put in the position of a possible Tour victory on the line though they have only a mediocre history of time trialing. But if any of his competitors is a minute+ on Evans before that TT than all bets are off.

The thing is the next two stages will introduce too many variables still. Menchov may crack. Or not. The sample size is too small to tell. And of course he’s the only one to close out a Grand Tour against among others Evans. Kohl? We are in totally uncharted territory here. CVV is like Kohl even though he’s been around. F Schleck is still kinda young and he was never in a position to win the Tour before. Evans and Sastre are the most known- but even here the Podium Cafe (and Bob Roll’s) wisdom on Sastre and time trialing is wrong.

We do know CSC will keep attacking. Who will wilt? My guess is that this year these next two stages will tell more than the final time trial. Its wide open at this point.

I forgot to say that I very much like reading your analysis!

CSC have had two mountainstages that have been as near perfect as you can get teamtactics-wise. The result of those two days: approximately 2 min gain for Schleck and 48 sec fo Sastre. Not bad by any means but also not enough to really give them a shot at winning. Of course there are more days to come but they need even bigger efforts from Sastre/Schleck if they are to win.

you have to look pretty carefully at improved placings. At least as far as the Tour goes, Evans is moving up largely because of all the names that have been eliminated for reasons beyond his control. A better indicator might be, is he beating (Menchov) now when he used to lose to him? Is he +30” on a 50km ITT whereas he used to be + 3.30? Useful. But Cadel’s progress has to do with the top 5 from 2005 disappearing; the entire 2006 podium disappearing (except Pereiro, but he’s a support guy); and the rest of the 2007 podium disappearing.

Obviously the rest of your factors are THE factors in any analysis I’ve ever done. I was thinking, they’re good indicators of the future performance you can expect to see over time, but not necessarily in the instant race. Fact is, there are a zillion factors in any moment that can determine things. But of course, I’ve long since glossed over this, so I don’t have to write post after post about how I have no idea who’s going to win. Joe Morgan does this in baseball, and his rward is a website called Firejoemorgan.com.