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The Last Maillot Jaune Power Poll!

Copy_of_pineapple_face_tiny by Chris... on in News

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Yep, no more power polls; by Wednesday the only contingencies will be the outcome of the final time trial, and I don't get off on discussing arithmetic. Also, to fight against the ever-present danger of post formats getting stale, I've come up with a new barometer: the snowball's chance in... [fill in the blank]. Scale runs from Everest (done deal!) to Haiti (big trouble), and measures the possibility that a given rider will make the podium. Oh, and I'm putting all of this into a flowchart. Check back in a spell. update: no flowchart... I tried, it was awful.

Narrative version on the flip, if you can't wait.

 

Star-divide

1. Cadel Evans ↔
Previous Ranking: 1
Current deficit: 0.08
Snowball's Chance in: Patagonia
The prospect of him blowing a gasket at the foot of Alpe d'Huez and fading to irrelevance can't be completely discounted. A better bet though is that he follows wheels competently enough, limits his losses, and crushes the entire peloton next Saturday. Considering the performance Sunday of the acknowledged favorite, on the so-called easy day of the Alps, this looks like a wide-open Tour and will be an incredible nail-biter right to the end. Evans is still the best bet to win, for now.

2. Denis Menchov ↔
Previous Ranking: 2
Current deficit: 0.38
Snowball's Chance in: Antarctica
[Yep, better than Evans'.] Boy, after Sunday I can't see him dropping far. Of the contenders, he looked the strongest, even if the olive oil coating on the Italian roads claimed yet another victim and thwarted a positively wicked attack. If Evans can stick to his wheel the next two stages, then Menchov's more likely in second. But if the Aussie doesn't deliver, Russia becomes the next heavy favorite to bag its first Maillot Jaune. Gotta root for the guy, if only for the entertainment value of seeing Rabobank win the Tour. I mean, what happens in the already-bitter Astana camp? Does Johan Bruyneel's head explode in the Versus commentary box? Will Contador bag less than ten stage wins at the Vuelta? A few unsolved frame-pump-in-the-spokes incidents? This could be history's greatest spite tour, and there's no telling how long it'll run.

3. Christian Vandevelde ↑
Previous Ranking: 4
Current deficit: 0.39
Snowball's Chance in: Norway
And still nobody's really watching him.[Note by Chris..., 07/21/08 2:31 PM PDT ]  Evans now swears he's watching CVV. He looked pretty comfortable Sunday, even able to try an attack or two, albeit unsuccessful. One wonders if he could afford to be more aggressive and spill some blood in that final group... but the smarter play is to follow Evans or whoever's in/near the front... then use his advantage in the ITT to cement his place on the podium. I'd rate him a 75% chance of surviving the Alps without a blowup; another 30% chance that Evans explodes, and a 90% chance that nobody flies away with the Tour this week. That gives him about a 20% chance of winning the Tour. Well, or Menchov. My head hurts.

4. Frank Schleck ↑
Previous Ranking: 5
Current deficit: none!
Snowball's Chance in: Iceland
All props to the maillot jaune, but like Iceland -- whose chilly name describes an unusually thin crust of Earth atop a massive reservoir of superheated geothermal steam -- he's not what the packaging says. Putting a handful of seconds into his rivals in the last 300 meters won't get it done in the long run, given his infirmities in the long ITT. And can anyone see him building up a three-minute advantage before Saturday? Negative. 

5. Bernhard Kohl ↑
Previous Ranking: 9
Current deficit: 0.07
Snowball's Chance in: Austria
Somewhere there's a way forward for the Revelation of the Race... er, well, the young revelation. Unlike his fellow surprise companion in the final selection (CVV), Kohl has a Schleck-like track record in the time trial. He climbed beautifully Sunday, so his position behind Schleck is perhaps more a courtesy than a reality. But no matter how close he gets to yellow, even in it, he'll need no less than 2:30 in hand going into Saturday to hold off Evans, VandeVelde or Menchov. 

6. Carlos Sastre ↓
Previous Ranking: 3
Current deficit: 0.49
Snowball's Chance in: Sweden
Let's see... Norway > Sweden, WRT latitude and elevation anyway. In other words, I would expect him fourth before it's all said and done. He did manage some aggressive riding Sunday, all the way to the line. Less likely to melt down than most of the guys on this list, and not completely hopeless in the time trial. But at 49" down he really needs to find something like three minutes minimum, or at least hope CVV and Menchov each have a jour sans.

7. Roman Kreuziger ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 7.15
Snowball's Chance in:  France
If you throw a dart at the map of France, you're not likely to hit a glacier, but hey, worth a shot. Kreuziger, like Kohl, looked fabulous today and might catch fire. Unlike some of the other longshots, he's got a chance in the time trial. But those seven minutes won't come off his record painlessly. He needs to risk it all Wednesday.

8. Alejandro Valverde ↑
Previous Ranking: 11
Current deficit: 4.11
Snowball's Chance in: the Cascades, i.e. melting fast
I suppose I should refrain from certain bold pronouncements, like when I said Valverde simply can't climb in the highest mountains. Showed Sunday he can do it, and he still has some support. I'm not sure why he's so inconsistent though. Maybe it's the crashing. BTW, he's not my favorite, but get well Oscar Pereiro.

9. Kim Kirchen ↓
Previous Ranking: 8
Current deficit: 2.48
Snowball's Chance in: New York
Kirchen, in contrast to Valverde, continues validating my theory that he's just outside the top echelon of mountain men. He's almost certain to keep hanging around, but he won't move up so much as hold still while others fall. BTW, I know the Olympics are poorly timed, but Luxembourg could field one hell of a team at the Worlds this fall.

10. Andy Schleck ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 9.01
Snowball's Chance in: Haiti
His position here is debatable versus the rest of the g.c.; I just wanted an excuse to talk about his work today. Mein Gott! Frank may have the jersey, but as Schlecks go, Andy is by far the most convincing. Of the CSC riders too. The fiendish look on his face as he drove the heads-of-state like livestock was priceless. Every day CSC nominate a rider to devour the front of the race. If it were the same guy every time, he'd have a 15-minute lead. Anyway, Andy's time is coming, soon.

1 recs | Comment 86 comments

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Again nice write up

But you missed someone..
Samsan.. Always getting better in the last week. Tomorrow is a perfect stage for him.. Think het get a minute on a couple of guys there.. Think he finish top 5.. Maybe liitle ambitious but he had to focus om something. And his tt skills, don’t know them in a 50 tt, but are probably better then A. Schleck’s, Valverde’s and Kirchen’s.. Can easily take 3 minutes on them but as I see now you put A. Schleck in for adoring/ fan feelings

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 21, 2008 5:23 AM EDT   0 recs

But the best he can finish is 7th as I see know.. I go on dreaming

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 21, 2008 5:59 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

it was late so I cut it to top ten. Samu might do something special, but after yesterday my sense is, it won’t be on an incline.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 21, 2008 9:55 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

at least not going

UP

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 21, 2008 9:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Majorca!

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 21, 2008 10:19 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well, there's no

shortage of summertime skiing, there . . .

by Sui Juris on Jul 21, 2008 10:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, but the whitest thing there are the old Germans on the beach.

Eight years later, I still twitch at the thought of what I saw there.
Ooh the horror

by Ryan_Liles on Jul 21, 2008 11:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Instant Bookmark

Ricco stole my marbles.

by crashdan on Jul 21, 2008 11:25 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Glad to be of service!

Talking cycling is good but bookmarks like that one are worth their weight in gold.

by ursula on Jul 21, 2008 1:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oofa

Not a pleasant memory, no. I was cured of any interest in nude beaches by my experiences at the pools in Germany. You ain’t seen tanned leather until you’ve seen a group of 70+ers naked . . .

by Sui Juris on Jul 21, 2008 3:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Like a bunch of

saddles with eyes, eh?

(shuddering)

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Jul 21, 2008 3:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sammy

did recover to finish ahead of Evans.

But really, I will be pleased if he can just fly down the mountain tomorrow and take the stage. Remember when he was going so fast in the Vuelta last year that the chain around his neck snapped?

by Chilltown on Jul 21, 2008 12:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No missed that..

But loved the descent their.. Thrilled me all the way.. Such a beatiness..

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 21, 2008 5:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not up to guessing who might win this beautiful race.

I hope that I learn something new about race tactics and that the riders set the roads on fire with their desire to win. Team tactics and grinta I hope will be the deciding factors. Viva le Tour!

Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana. - G. Marx

by flying dog on Jul 21, 2008 7:00 AM EDT   0 recs

Very sane and sensible rundown

I agree with you that the scales are tipping ever so slightly in Menchovs favour right now. There are however two factors that aren’t really mentioned in anyones predictions:

1. Complete f*ing mayhem. The upcoming two stages both have potential to go completely nuts with unpredictable outcomes and biiig timegaps. People have been going hard to get to this point and there is really no way of guessing who will survive these two days. We have 5(!!) HC climbs left where minutes, not seconds can be lost so trying to calculate how much you can gain/lose in the TT is sort of futile right now.

2: The Element of Chance. We are all so certain that if Cadel/Menchov/CVV get to the TT with so and so much time deficit they will inevitably claw back so and so many minutes. All it really takes is an oily roundabout or the tiniest bit of bad luck with a mechanical that takes a litle too long to fix . Suddenly those 3 minutes you were sure to make up is down to 1:15 sec and you are left wishing you had grabbed a couple of seconds on the Hautacam when you were on a good day.

I’d say there is about a 40% chance of one of these scenarios coming true.

by Jens on Jul 21, 2008 7:15 AM EDT   1 recs

chaos theory

Yep, someone like Valverde has gotta be hoping for complete meltdown – 4 minutes is not inconceivable in the alps. or maybe the Euskies will have a good day.

by kimchi on Jul 21, 2008 8:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Valverde

My question is: Where is Hincappie and why isn’t he bringing Valverde up the mountain a la Voight?

by ridingrav on Jul 21, 2008 8:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Because they're not teammates?

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 21, 2008 9:14 AM EDT to parent up   1 recs

Ah Jens

Your comments are always a good way to start the day. It’s kind of shocking to see a group of 8-9 contenders all taking swings at each other, and this wasn’t even the big stage. Seems like for years we’ve just watched them do hard tempo and see who drops back. Sunday I saw the following people attack: Menchov (d’oh!), Sastre, Vandevelde, Kohl, Schleck, Sanchez and Valverde. Everyone but Kreuziger and the heavily-pressured Evans. We’re really through the looking glass now.

Menchov—has he ever been this aggressive? Also, does he possess a single ouce of luck? He might have left the field for good had he not slipped on that puddle of extra virgin olive oil in the road.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 21, 2008 10:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes

All those HC climbs. We really haven’t seen climbing like this yet in the Tour. And, it’s the third week, where even the best laid plans have a way of detonating. For me, that makes calculations impossible, and until wednesday, calculating the crono is not worth the effort. Too much racing still lies ahead.

by gavia on Jul 21, 2008 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The only possibility for anyone to meltdown is for all the climbers to attack, and attack often.

We’ll see if anyone really has the cojones to throw down and let it all hang out.

by Ryan_Liles on Jul 21, 2008 8:30 AM EDT   0 recs

I would say, with 5 HC climbs virtually in a row

it’s very possible to see riders bonking or losing lots of time even without an insane flurry of attacks. All it takes is seemingly trival things like not eating/drinking properly or having a bad nights sleep (due to roadrash or whatever). We tend to overestimate riders, in the third week of the Tour they are frail humans not calculating machines.

by Jens on Jul 21, 2008 8:41 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not that many climbs actually

I’m discounting Stage 16. Unless someone outright bonks, the only team deep enough to attack on the last climb and make it stick to the line is CSC, because they have 3 guys who could conceivably drop Evans and then work together afterward. Unfortunately, Sastre and FS descend more like feathers than stones. Cadel, the former MTB racer, would reconnect on the long descent from the climb.

I don’t think isolating Cadel from his team on the first HC climb and hoping for him to bonk works either, unfortunately. CSC would have to drive the race pretty hard to do that, and Cadel could feed from a team car pretty easily in a greatly-reduced lead group.

by Softie on Jul 21, 2008 8:54 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I personally think

discounting stage 16 is a huge mistake but time will tell.

by Jens on Jul 21, 2008 9:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

From the man

who discounted stage 15. You’ve learned!

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 21, 2008 10:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I just said 16 was going to be EVEN BIGGER

(although it’s pretty hard to see how they are going to do that after the fireworks on 15)

by Jens on Jul 21, 2008 10:07 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

si

i think this also.

by gavia on Jul 21, 2008 12:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I wouldn't read too much into

Evans’ mtb past as an indicator of road handling skills.

The italian commentary team used to regularly bash his lack of descending skills in the years he rode the giro. I don’t think you see him following Sanchez . . .

by R Mc on Jul 21, 2008 9:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

True

but I wonder if anyone can attack, get a gap, and then ride a monster uphill ITT? We’re not seeing big differences in ability, and when guys get in the red, they’re mostly able to limit their losses. I think more in the negative: will anyone - however cautious - blow a huge gasket because the upoming climbs are so ridiculous? Translation: I don’t think anyone will win by several minutes, but you could see some of the favorites lose by that much.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 21, 2008 10:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Spot on Bevin...

as a run down of individuals. What happens when we throw the team structures in there? CSC is the top dog now, can they turn the screws together to come up with a sum greater than the parts?

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 21, 2008 8:39 AM EDT   0 recs

I'd hate to be Sastre

right now. Followed a close second by not really wanting to be Riis.

But for either of the two, I’d think that the race situation dictates aggression. If you (or your riders) are weak in the ITT, you have to try to diminish the power of your opponents BEFORE they get to the ITT.

The only team with the possibility of pulling this off is CSC—but they won’t be able to do it Astana/Postal style, instead they’ll have to attack or send the early breaks. I suspect that they will be assisted in the early breaks by riders like Lowe, Hesjedal, or Millar, and that riders w/nothing to lose like Valverde will be keen to attack.

Evans’ allies (until the last few k of L’Alpe): Menchov and VdV.

by R Mc on Jul 21, 2008 9:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Nope

but they sure make it interesting…

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 21, 2008 10:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My take

Chris is right, Menchov was gone had it not been for the fall.

And where the hell is Popo? They keep touting him being the ultimate teammate. The only time i see him is at the BOTTOM of the climb. He better get his ass moving or Evans will be crying for Horner.

CVV was 8-1/2 minutes behind Evans in a 50 something TT last year. Anybody know if he was taking it easy or any other contributing factors? I think he needs to attack to be in Yellow.

If you don't have time to do it right the first time, when are you going to have time to do it again?

by CannonDowell on Jul 21, 2008 10:31 AM EDT   0 recs

8.30

Must have been conserving himself. Or injured. No way are they that different.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 21, 2008 11:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sandbagging no doubt

He could foresee this development and wanted to lull Cadel into a false sense of security.

by Jens on Jul 21, 2008 11:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

One of the TT's last year for C

he wrote in his diary that he took the day easy. In another his job was time checks. Not sure which one he lost 8+ minutes on but if you supply stage or date I can check to see what he wrote – and yes, I have all his idairies in a binder… :-)

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 21, 2008 2:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Popo and Bruyneel

On the tele last night w/Bruyneel, Johan said he was disappointed with Popo’s performance this year… and that he told him so when he saw him in the Dolphin race.

Hmm.

by ursula on Jul 21, 2008 11:22 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Come back to the Darkside

You can be great once more….

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 21, 2008 1:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Everytime I see or read "Popo"...

... all I can think of is Beerfest

Ricco stole my marbles.

by crashdan on Jul 21, 2008 1:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I really think the Lotto DS is using Popo in a jackass way

When you see the guy running down early worthless breaks, which is typically the job of a lower level gregario, it is a clear indication the DS might be doping up on a bit too many pints every night.

by Ryan_Liles on Jul 21, 2008 11:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Amplification of Jens' point

I don’t think TTing ability is much of an insurance policy right now. There’s a pretty clear division between the TTers and the climbers in this Tour. When the climbers really push it, they can open gaps.

The climbers have a lot of chances coming up. And you can be sure that they are motivated to try to fly away.

Valverde is the interesting wildcard. He has the most to gain with a crazy long range attack, and maybe his team rallies after his performance on stage 15.

Kohl can gamble, too. He’s got a fairly strong team, and has the spotted jersey as a consolation prize if he falters on the GC.

I think this potential for chaos plays into CSC’s hands. They have enough firepower to pick and choose what to do, while Evans, Menchov, and CVV have to play defense over two really tough stages. If any one of them makes the wrong choice at the wrong time, they could easily end up in the second group on the road with no team support.

by KevinK on Jul 21, 2008 11:18 AM EDT   0 recs

I completely agree. Stage 17 is going to be brutal, L’Alpe d’Huez is the easiest of the climbs that day, there should be a major selection by the second peak. Assuming that CSC Saxo-bank pushes a ridiculous pace, burning off their non-climbers up until the selection takes place, I think they have a good chance to break this race open on that stage.
Is anyone going to talk about Menchov’s connection to the same shady blood bank that Rasmussen was involved with?

http://doped.wordpress.com/2008/01/16/its-all-about-the-blood/

by bryan_e on Jul 21, 2008 12:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Notice the date- January

So it isn’t new news. My brain is fuzzy on this but it appeared from, our discussion of it back then that it appeared to be no connection and noting has come from it since.

by ursula on Jul 21, 2008 1:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Okay, I heard some mention of this on the ITV podcast. They made it sound like some people were sitting on info that would come out once he took yellow, sort of like what happened to Rasmussen last year. I can’t wait until everyone is on some kind of third party blood monitoring system so we can get past the speculation. That BBC report on EPO problems didn’t inspire much confidence.

by bryan_e on Jul 21, 2008 1:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Christ.

Waiting for him to get yellow? [Clay Davis] Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit [/Clay Davis]

by ursula on Jul 21, 2008 2:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 21, 2008 2:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The HumanPlasma thing is going to explode sooner or later

I thought the general doping feeding frenzy at the Tour might provoke some of those with half-substantiated info to try to blow life into the story but it hasn’t yet. Menchov in yellow is almost certainly going to inspire someone to grab some headlines.

Best bet though is a more thoroughly researched story as the biathlon/skiing-season draws nearer.

by Jens on Jul 21, 2008 2:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Biathlon you say?

That’s what came before Terry Tate.

by ursula on Jul 21, 2008 3:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Third Party Monitoring

I looked at the third party used by Garmin and Columbia: Agency for Cycling Ethics (ACE). Nice name, agency?, ok, it sounds official. I was left with some doubts… I wouldn’t trust a third party that is payed to ‘protect an investment.’ It has a dot org domain name but it is not clear if it is a for-profit org or not. The most critical point is the fact that they notify the team management and then they ‘work’ with the rider if they detect a ‘problem’, hmmm. They offer the same services offered by Maynar in Spain. The difference: nicer website and a ‘mission.’ I’m not sold yet.

by Chainring on Jul 22, 2008 1:22 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

good stuff

Not sure I agree with the Sastre rating. I still think that CSC is riding for him and will sacrifice all including F Schleck to get the yellow on his back. (now that is not to say that master tactician Riis won’t move to plan B or S if Sastre does falter).

My money is still on Menchov, hopefully his bad luck is behind him. Question: when did the last rabobank (ten dam?) drop off from his side? Was he isolated as early on as Evans?

Kohl? big question mark, how far can he go? for me he’s the joker in the play. But both he and Vande Velde need to take advantage of the other guys watching each other and attack (if they can)

by lyne on Jul 21, 2008 11:18 AM EDT   0 recs

Ten Dam & Rabo

Interesting that you brought him up. I see that he’s 19th on GC, just 12:33 back, so he’s having a solid Tour. He could come into play.

The first week we all noticed how CSC was awfully quiet while Columbia and CdE was flexing their muscles.  Well now we've got CSC flexing but Rabo is still lying low.  They aren't that bad of a team and like CSC they've been disciplined: how many times have we seen Fletcha take a flyer?  None. The only time we've seen a Rabo on a break was Morenhaut on stage 11, which interestingly enough the only stage that CSC went stage hunting as well (with Arvesen picking up the win). They've been sitting in the peloton all Tour while EVERY other team has been drawn out.

Quite obviously Rabo is holding back still, waiting for the decisive mountain stages. CSC is the strongest team but they haven’t drawn Rabobank out to play yet.

by ursula on Jul 21, 2008 11:33 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Argh!

What I was trying to say is that Rabo has been the most diciplined team in the Tour and they are the only team that hasn’t been drawn out in either attack or defense. They could be a last minute factor in these last two stages.

by ursula on Jul 21, 2008 11:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not likely

I’d be surprised to see Rabo do much as a team.

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 21, 2008 1:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

They miss Dekker and Niermann..

He did some work last year! And now.. They have Langeveld.. Nice young rider but come on.. You want the yeloow jersey so take some climbers with you..

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 22, 2008 5:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Polka or Yellow

The Polka Dots is there for Kohl, but will the temptation of yellow keep him from the Poka Dots?

It all depends on who and how many get up the road in stage 16. If the right (or wrong) guy gets in the break Kohl could lose his shot at the Polka Dots, right?

by UnibetFan on Jul 21, 2008 12:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think Kohl

will go all out for yellow at the expense of spotty (if it comes to that). He sounded to me like a guy that just suddenly realized he could wear yellow at least for a day or two.

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Jul 21, 2008 1:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

last Rabo

I rewatched the stage last night. He had help until about maybe 1/3 of the way up Prato Nevoso. Phil thought it was Tankink, IIRC.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 21, 2008 1:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

6 inside a minute though!

Man that is unreal. When is the last time if ever that many were so close at the second rest day? They all appear to have good legs too! I think that counts against anybody not that close though – some of these six may crack, but at least one or two won’t so it will take a long flyer to get past. Not impossible but it moves the snowball 500K toward the equator for those guys not in the lead 6.

by Markk on Jul 21, 2008 11:22 AM EDT   0 recs

Final top six

1. Dennis Menchov (Looks stronger in the Mtns and can finish in top 5 on the TT)
2. Frank Schleck (Will not take enough time from Menchov on Duez)
3. Cadel Evans (Is paying the price for a weak team and holding the yellow through transitions)
4. Christian Vande Velde (Sadly, he will lose too much on Duez)
5. Carlso Sastre (TT drops him behind Vande Velde)
6. Bernhard Kohl (TT drops him behind Vande Velde)

by UnibetFan on Jul 21, 2008 12:50 PM EDT   0 recs

Oops... forgot about Valverde

I didn’t consider this, but Valverde could sneak ahead of Kohl in that last TT also. It seems Valverde is coming back a bit and the Polka Dot quest could drop Kohl on the GC.

by UnibetFan on Jul 21, 2008 12:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

CSC tactics

I expect to see a lot more of what we saw today from CSC (got home late last night from Solvang….perfect timing for a rest day). Sastre will be attacking out of his skull with Schleck watching Evans carefully. Once Evans gets worn down, Schleck gives it the gas and gains time on Evans. End of the day, both plan A and B gain time on Evans. The question is of course..will it be enough, and who else will benefit from these tactics?

Also, I don’t know about anyone else, but I was ecstatic to see SamSan back up at the front of the peleton. I know that he lost time in the Pyrenees, but I can’t wait to see what he does on tomorrows final climb. Giddy is the word I’d use.

by Hons on Jul 21, 2008 12:53 PM EDT   0 recs

Stage 16

Yes, I really am that excited about tomorrow.

In last years Vuelta on the stage into Grenada Sanchez put 41” into the Menchov-Evans-Sastre group on a ~10km decent followed by ~10km flat. Tomorrows finish is a 24km decent straight into the finish!!!!!!! I like to think that SamSan could cut his GC deficit in half in those final 24km. And unlike the others in the top 6, SamSan has already had his jour sans. As everyone keeps saying…this guy gets better as the race goes on. I see Sammy sitting in the top 5 by the time we get to paris.

by Hons on Jul 21, 2008 1:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs