The smallest comparable gap occurred in -06 when Carlos was fighting for a podium place while Evans was i n no mans land without much room to move up or down on the GC. He needs to hope and pray that Evans has mechanical troubles or lands himself on the asphalt when trying too hard.

I could see Evans perhaps trying too set a hard pace early to scare the bejeezus out of Carlos on the early splits which could be a bit dangerous. Sastre can’t really get any advantage from going last, he will absolutely need to go flat out start to finish to have a chance.

The man has been working and fighting for years to wear the Maillot Jaune.
Right now he’s got it, and once you consider his age there really may never be another chance for him in the future.
I’d say that guy is going to hammer beyond anything he has ever done before in his entire life and he is going to pull it off and Evans will become the new Ulrich/Beloki for the next couple years.

Oh and Chris, you forgot one variable; the DS.
I’d say Sastre has one of the best guys in his ear during the TT, and that may just be the little bit needed to get him across the line holding the lead (by .000025 secs).

Sastre’s TT might have gotten better, but so has Evans’. He is truly one of the elites these days. If he lost 1.24 in 30K when Evans wasn’t on form yet, he’s gonna lose big time in this TT. Of course Sastre wasn’t on form yet, but I still don’t see it. Also, if Fignon, a TT specialist couldn’t maintain his lead against Lemond over what, like 34K, while in the lead, there’s not much hope for Sastre. When he talks you don’t hear the voice of a confident leader. Also, Riis is already giving out the “well at least we tried” kind of interviews. No, Carlos will lose about 2.00 to Evans.

... after looking this over, I’m not sure that we have a clue beyond “Cadel is better”. Sastre has always been behind Evans going into every ITT that they’ve showed up in during various Tours… and in 2007, Sastre was already 6 minutes back on Contador going into stage 19, so what’s the point of really grinding it out. Anyway… here’s the spreadsheet… it’s a graphic though, sorry… can’t build tables in comments that I can figure out…

Clickety pop for better resolution (I think)

and a lot of the time they’ll prove you out. This is one of those times that I’m going with a feeling that Sastre is fresher than Evans and will eek out enough time to keep the jersey.

But anyway you slice it the GC positions 1-6 should get yet another good scrambling after the stage. It’s really been a great tour for race fans.

Evans riding before Sastre makes for interesting strategy.

Should Evans come out hard and scare Sastre with impossible splits? Or should he just ride his own race and not play any head games?

It will be one of the biggest upsets in quite some time, yellow jersey or not. Cadel’s time splits won’t help Carlos much because the pace Cadel will be maintaining will be a pace that a rider like Sastre would be motorpacing behind. If he does lose less than 1.34 it will be SO VERY CLOSE. Basically, Carlos will have to ride the TT of his life and then some.

That’s my pick.

Its interesting to see how across the board people are in these predictions, particularly in regards to Sastre. A bunch of us predict based more on who we like and that probably goes with the TV guys too.

Personally I think the numbers Chris posted above are skewed as IMO the difference between performing in the 1st TT and the last TT in the Tour is big. The last TT comes after three weeks of racing hard and with a win or high placing on the line- if the rider cares atthat point- and without the win many riders don’t. So for me including the 1st week TT is misleading. In fact I think 3rd week time trials of less than 50km are more relevant than 1st week TTs of any length.

http://www.sporza.be/cm/sporza.be/wielrennen/Tour_2008/verslagen_2008/1.346974

even though it’s in Dutch, it’s pretty easy to figure out … 11/16 pick Evans to win, 1 pick for Menchov (from his teammate Tankink, by 1 sec), 4 pick Sastre (including the *Lotto team owner, always great for one’s confidence eh? also Frankie A, the CSC doctor, and ex-pro G.Solleveld). The biggest gap is predicted by Evans’ bodyguard at 53 sec, the closest is Rabo’s PR guy at 0.5 sec.

http://tdf.sbs.com.au/tdf2008/ – click on “Stage 18 Robbie McEwen rates Cadel” (it’s a pre-stage interview)

McEwen “if they (CSC) don’t do anything in the next 2 days, then they’ve ridden themselves into a bit of a corner, and they’ll be crapping themselves about the time trial on Saturday”

Since I stuck my neck out on an earlier thread in which I stated whoever had Yellow after leaving the Alps would win, I’ll stick to my guns and go with Sastre for the win. As good as Evans may be against the clock, I don’t think there is any way to quantify the transformative power of wearing that jersey. Carlos starts last, and he’ll know exactly how hard he must ride; it will be damn close, but I’m guessing he ‘ll pull it off.

there is a lot more to racing than just the numbers, thank goodness because it would be boring if outcomes could be predicted. So I’m going with the untangible and picking Sastre – why?

But I won’t begrudge Evans if he does pick up the yellow jersey.

And I hope the CVV has the TT of his life too.

Team Silence-Lotto has announced that it is changing name to “Evans-Lotto.” Studies conducted during the development of the 2008 version of the Tour de France have determined that the incredible boring performance by Evans is 50% more effective in putting people to sleep than the sponsoring drug “Silence.”

Silence-Lotto officials were very excited about their new product: 2008 TdF videos featuring the Australian rider.

“We lost the 2008 Tour by 5 seconds to Sastre but we are very happy with the response we received from the fans which prompted the launch of this innovative new product to battle insomnia.”

Cadel expressed disappointment after losing the yellow jersey during the last time trial but was very happy at the prospect of great profits coming from sales of his his videos worldwide.

The “Silence” product will no longer be available as of July 26th, 2008.

Cadel hasn’t exactly looked like a well balanced individual lately. Either it’s a sign that he is superfocused on the job, and he has been getting the job done admirably sofar, or he is coming apart at the seams. Many commentators have been pointing to him looking less and less on top of things.

At the start of the Tour he looked almost Lance-like in his cofidence and composure but thats not the guy we 're seeing now.

But we almost ALL assumed Tony would win the first TT. Off days happen to the best of them.

Chris Carmichael made a good preview for ITT tomorrow:

http://www.pezcyclingnews.com/?pg=fullstory&id=6137&status=True

you too Chris, if this one second is really, than i bet in Sastre because of the little hilly ITT.

No…i don’t know anymore, lol. Sometimes riders fly with the yellow, but Evans shows that are a intelligent rider, perhaps the most, will see tomorrow