Podium Cafe: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:

Around SBN: Big East Power Poll: Week Six Bar-right-arrows

Maillot Jaune Power Poll!

Copy_of_pineapple_face_tiny by Chris... on in News

Letour-sq2_1__medium1. Cadel Evans ↔
Previous Ranking: 1
Current deficit: 0.21
Odds of winning: Stay upright, follow wheels... looking great.
Evans' first week has a certain Lance-like precision to it, as if he's super strong and is getting himself into whatever position he likes. And that when he's ready, he'll take the jersey and keep it. Unfortunately that might not be til stage 20, but he showed today on a time trial that didn't give him much advantage that he's in control.

2. Alejandro Valverde ↑
Previous Ranking: 5
Current deficit: 1.27
Odds of winning: Puncher's chance.
The immediate reaction to his first split today was that he'd lost it. A faster middle portion and decent final leg showed that his first split may have been more tactical error than the end of his awesome form. He can get a minute back on Evans in the mountains. But can he find another three?

3. Damiano Cunego ↑
Previous Ranking: 6t
Current deficit: 1.26
Odds of winning: a Hail Mary, in football terms. Not out of the question.
Like Evans, Cunego is showing excellent preparation and form, limiting his losses pretty handily today in his weakest event. But for stage 20, I'd prefer his chances to Cadel's perhaps. Like Valverde, his way home consists of a huge day in the Alps.

4. Carlos Sastre ↔
Previous Ranking: 2t
Current deficit: 1.43
Odds of winning: glimmer of hope.
Arguably the top-placed pure climber, Sastre predictably limited his losses today too. Nothing not to like here; all things considered Carlos is where he needs to be. Also, there shouldn't be any question about team leadership. Maybe there never really was. I still have trouble picturing him dropping the peloton on Alpe d'Huez, but it wouldn't shock me.

5. Denis Menchov ↔
Previous Ranking: 2t
Current deficit: 1.12
Odds of winning: fading fast, almost gone.
He's got six days to win the Tour now. Yesterday was one of those things, and today was respectable enough, but he's not better than Evans in either the Alps or the long time trial. He arguably is better than Evans in the Pyrenees, and has the track record to prove it. That gives him til Hautacam to catch and pass Cadel, or it's over.

6. Kim Kirchen ↑
Previous Ranking: 6t
Current deficit: 0.12
Odds of winning: lightning-strike levels.
Well now... this is a conservative ranking for the best-placed GC rider. Color me skeptical about his chances in the high Alps. But he was great today, and maybe we're in for a real surprise in that final time trial. I can see him attacking at Super-Besse and doing well in the Pyrenees, potentially into yellow. But that third week... I'll believe it when it happens.

7. Sammy Sanchez ↓
Previous Ranking: 2t
Current deficit: 1.31
Odds of winning: infinitesimal... but the podium is in range.
Today was about what you'd expect from a decent time-trialer like Samu. He's quietly put himself in position. I can only guess that he'd like to lay low til the third week, like he did in the Vuelta, and storm the podium when everyone else starts to crack. The Pyrenees are more his style though. Stay tuned.

8. Andy Schleck ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 1.27
Odds of winning: Almost nil; he's got other duties.
Aside from Jens!, Andy is the top-placed CSC rider, but unlike Euskaltel don't go looking for Bjarne to change his plan. I know I've been speaking out of both sides of my mouth about CSC, but right now Sastre looks plenty good enough to ignore Schleck the Younger's fine ride and future arc.

9. Mikel Astarloza ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 1.42
Odds of winning: only technically a positive number.
Good ride for Astarloza today, as you might expect, given his chrono abilities. Reality awaits, though probably not til the Alps, and even then you never know what a crafty team can cobble together. 

10. Haimar Zubeldia ↓
Previous Ranking: 6t
Current deficit: 3'+
Odds of winning: Nil.
Do Euskaltel have the patience to stay with the plan? Or is there a conversation going on at the hotel right now as to who's riding for whom? Zubeldia's performance was a disappointment, and his chances at a podium are very weak, whereas Sanchez and Astarloza both kept themselves well in the mix. Zubeldia's best hope now is along the lines of top-five, with back end of the top ten looking more likely.

11. Thomas Lövkvist ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 0.47
Odds of winning: Pretty hard to comprehend
All of Sweden needs to take a deep breath... ahhhh. Let's keep our expectations under wraps here. Like his teammate and captain Kirchen, things look great for Lövkvist so far, and that white jersey is no illusion. Yellow? Let's just block it out for another week, and then maybe check back in.

12. Christian VandeVelde ↑
Previous Ranking: new
Current deficit: 0.37
Odds of winning: If only...
What is it about Americans and time trials? Is this cycling's version of rugged individualism? The power of the stars and stripes on the Tour's ITTs is undeniable. Not just from Vandevelde's performance; he's shown the ability before. Look at Columbia: you get a mix of mostly Europeans and a few Americans who think they're joining a German team, suddenly change the address labels and kits, and presto! three of the top 11. Anyway, David Millar was the best of the GarMen today, but Vandevelde deserves equal credit for those yellow numbers they'll be wearing for a while.

13. Frank Schleck ↓
Previous Ranking: 9t
Current deficit: 2.08
Odds of winning: D-U-N
Nothing to be ashamed of; he's just not a time trialist par excellence, or a mountain goat. Look for him to bag a stage someplace though.

14. Riccardo Riccò ↓
Previous Ranking: 11
Current deficit: 4'+
Odds of winning: Same as ever: nil!
Those three minutes he blew today should be enough to convince him to push aside thoughts of the white jersey and start thinking of polka dots instead. It should also give him license to attack alone, the time-honored method of winning the KOM. Not that I know what the Cobra ever has in mind. Just think it'd be a better use of his time.

15. Juan Mauricio Soler ↓
Previous Ranking: 9t
Current deficit: 14'
Odds of winning: Left them back on the roads of Brittany.
Pretty simple now: if his hands or pain threshold are up to the task, it's KOM time.

Honorable mention: Vincenzo Nibali (nice work today), Stijn Devolder (OK but can he climb?), Maxime Monfort (Kid's alright), Marzio Bruseghin (Bruuuse!), Sylvain Chavanel (top Frenchman at 2').

1 recs | Comment 146 comments

Read Related

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Woow are you serious?

Do you have other shots in th Usa?

1 and 2
I think Evans and Menchov are by far the 2 top contenders.. Menchov had a lot of critism from the whole Rabo-squad and maybe that wil wake him up.

3 Cunego.. Dit a pretty good tt. Far above my expectations.. His specialism, climbing, are on their way.. Defintely heading for the podium.

4 Samuel Sanchez

Not an very good tt but always improve in GT.. Also some down hill finishes and Astarloza to watch his back and he is fully prepared to attack!

5 Kirchen/ Sastre

Kirchen is on the run.. Probably stop on teh Alpe d’Huez. That point Satsre is taking it over

Valverde far behind this 6. But as I see now it’s not really different then your expactation..

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 8, 2008 3:24 PM EDT   0 recs

Right

We differ on Valverde, but that’s about it. Hey, your track record (VDS) is better than mine, so I am open to corrections. But I don’t think Valverde is cooked. He’s 15 seconds behind Menchov, but who can climb better?

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 3:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Have to agree with Chris on VV

The big thing is if he lets this TTing effort get in his head or not. If not look for a big push from him.

by ursula on Jul 8, 2008 3:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Valverde was supposed to have improved his TT dramatically

and still he performs on the level of Sastre? He didn’t lose a lot of time but he did nothing to convince me he’s a better Tour-rider than a year or two ago.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 3:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

VV part deux

The thing about VV, and most of the other riders too, is that he is guaranteed to have one bad day at least. If today was his bad day then he’s looking pretty good. We do know that he can TT well on occasion and I for one would not discount his chances if he’s got a minute or two on Evans going into the final TT IF he has the yellow.

by ursula on Jul 8, 2008 3:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He said he was happy for his performance today

....

guess even after loosing over a minute to Cadel he must be very confident for his climbing skills..

by Bruce Suomi on Jul 8, 2008 4:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah difficult question.. Menchov looked very solid...

But got a lot of critism after his fault from Wauters, Breukink, and van Dam yesterday. Don’t know how he can deal with that. But Menchov has a lot of advantage in riding a GT. We could see how he could ride 3 weeks.. Valverde hasn’t prove that for me and Valverde was too good in the Dauphine.. Without ‘piti’ anybody can hold that shape

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 8, 2008 4:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Menchov -"fading fast, almost gone."!!

i think is to soon to say that.

by semprenaroda on Jul 8, 2008 3:40 PM EDT   0 recs

He's OK

but his chances of winning are falling behind other people’s.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 3:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But

we’ll know for sure in the Pyrenees.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 3:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i think in Pirineus

will not be a great shake. Maybe Kirchen or Andy..but the 3,4 main contenders i think will be equal.

by semprenaroda on Jul 8, 2008 3:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Possibly

Though I hope Hautacam turns into a real slugfest. Just once, I’d like to see the GC play out in a major way in week 2, then have another round of it in week 3. Seems like most years, things just slowly narrow for two weeks, then come to a head at the end.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 3:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Riis interview after today

When asked about his three CG -guys performance he was quite pleased .When the reporter asked what the plan was from now on, his face cracked into a giant smile and said “now we attack”.

I think you may get your wish for pyreneean-fireworks. Possibly even sooner.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 4:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hm

Who? Voigt? We knew that already. Maybe Frankie takes off on Super-Besse.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think the will start working Cadel over already on Super-Besse

Frank sounds like a good bet. No one believes in any timegaps on thursday but i think the plan is to keep chipping away at Evans/Menchov and make them work.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 4:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that's what i would do...

for sure, riis has to use his numbers and use them often. he can’t afford to be passive, and the combined strength of his team is his best bet to overcome menchov and evans. evans, he’s on fab form and will ride well, but it’s possible for the threesome to get the better of him. there’s only so many attacks he can follow.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I wonder

maybe Cancellara can drive up the pace for a while. He’s got some usefulness left.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

no doubt

though csc won’t want him to kill their climbers at the same time ;-)

he’s worked on the lower slopes before though, so he’s def another pair of legs. csc is pretty stacked. if they want to control the race, they can. not sure the same can be said for lotto.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I say

Let let the Schleck brothers attack but just follow Sastre. The other two are not going to win the Tour so following them wouldn’t matter. I would just stick on Sastre’s wheel and follow him.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 8, 2008 6:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Congratulations

You just became the happy, happy DS who let Oscar Pereiro win the 2006 TdF.
Join Bjarne Riis and Rolf Aldag in the grumpy “what if”-club.

by Jens on Jul 9, 2008 1:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

excellent

i like it when riis is smiling :-)

should be good times.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i'm thinking

the 1º or 2º stage of Tour de Suisse, yes that race Chris say will be boring :P

Jens first them the combos of Schleck's brother in the finish mountain.Fantastic!!

by semprenaroda on Jul 8, 2008 4:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

heh heh

I don’t like to announce this in June (“turn off your computers!”), but I really try to lay low before the Tour.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ah, i dig the june races

all about the eh…. anticipation.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think he burned too many matches at the Giro

Riding the Tour and then the Vuelta is a different thing than riding a very demanding Giro and then a very demanding Tour…
Hope to be proven wrong, really like the quiet Russian.

by Bruce Suomi on Jul 8, 2008 3:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Cummon Chris

You and I both know that SamSan is only here for stage wins. I think he would object heavily to your inclusion of him in this list. He has clearly stated that he does not care about the GC. Sheesh…

But yes, I’m still dreaming too.

by Hons on Jul 8, 2008 3:46 PM EDT   0 recs

"only here for stage wins"

guys have been using that line since 1903.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 3:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This TT didn't kill anyones chances

The allrounders (Evans, Menchov) did what they were supposed to and the climbers (Valverde, Sastre,Cunego, SamSan) stayed within striking distance. The only slight disappointment was The Volder but there was some talk about him being ill so that might explain it.

Menchovs problem is he’s going to have a “jour sans” and then he needs to gain serious time in the TTs, not seconds.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 3:50 PM EDT   0 recs

The thing is

That the “climbers” that you mentioned haven’t shown anything more than Evans in the mountains of the Tour so I wouldn’t expect that to start now. If they don’t distance Evans, they’re done. Evans’ form is on its way up and Valverde’s is on its way down. Cunego doesn’t stand a chance, period. Sanchez, all I can say is that this isn’t the Vuelta. He doesn’t have a track record in the Tour and hasn’t shown me that he could EVER win the Tour.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 8, 2008 4:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There's like 4-5 danger men looking to gain time in the mountains

Evans has the weakest climbingteam ever witnessed for a favourite of his caliber, no way will they be able to keep everyone in check. My guess is he will defend well at first but sooner or later he will not be able to answer. Only question is if people will ultimately take enough time to survive the long TT.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 4:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

si

i think the team is evans’s biggest, and maybe only, weakness. he rides well alone, but i’d be worried about having climbers like sastre and schleck (esp the younger) double-teaming me, in his position. a little gap here, a little gap there, and suddenly that long time trial doesn’t look so long.

still, figure evans as the fave to win as of now, but it’s far from a done deal by any means. riis isn’t afraid to roll the dice. which could make things fun for us at home on the couch.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

rubbing hands...

dang, this is going to be fun.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

lol, totally :-)

so heart the grand tours.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

At least

until someone ruins it.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

it's all fun and games....

i’m trying not to think about that possibility…

but yeah, it is the tour de france.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Only problem is

Riis is usually very conservative. the most common thing you hear in an afterstageinterview is “today was not the day to make a difference”. He doesn’t have the type of rider now though to decide the Tour in one massive timegaining attack, they need to attack repeatedly. I don’t know if he will gamble and do that in the end.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 4:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

really?

it seems to me like he’s been willing to roll that dice a few times in the past. certo, in the ‘96 tour, at least. also, with hamilton’s long day out. maybe i’m dreamin’ though ;-)

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hamilton was after

everything had gone to hell in a handbasket, Without the crash and earlier timeloss Tyler would have ridden conservatively.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 4:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Riise and conservative in one sentence?

Don’t hear that often.. My picture of CSC is many attacks and strong team tactics.

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 8, 2008 4:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but maybe that's just Voigt

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Jul 8, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

me too

the games with the crosswinds at various races, too come to mind.

well, we’ll see what he does. hopefully something fun. shame to let all that talent sit around doing nothing.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It doesn't matter

All he has to do is follow the GC guys, screw the rest. Also, if it were so easy for these guys to distance Evans, they would have done it last year. I think it will be alot harder than people think to distance him, resiliency is his strength after all.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 8, 2008 6:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Pyrenees

Seems that a very common thread here is that the Pyrenees are huge for Menchov, Kirchen, Zubeldia,and Astraloza. It should be big for VV, Sastre, and Samu too though they will do better in the Alps. I also think Cunego will show strong in the Pyrenees. By the Alps though most of these guys will have fallen by the wayside.

Nibali though- I will keep a close eye on him cause I don’t see him being shaken until the Alps if at all.

by ursula on Jul 8, 2008 3:54 PM EDT   0 recs

My take on the GC favs

1. Evans: showed that his form is on the way up. Absolutely smoked Valv Piti, can’t wait for the long TT
2. Menchov: see Evans above. The big difference between the two will be the long ITT
3. Sastre: looked okay in the TT. Waiting for the mountains. Also, experience and a strong team is his friend.
4. Kirchen: smoking TT today, but not consistent in the high mountains.

IMO, those are the only ones that matter at this point. The others? Pure scheisse. Valverde’s form looks to be fading. Cunego? Please, he’s only going to see the final podium from the crowd. Not a GT rider, regardless of a Giro win.I don’t think any of the others Chris mentioned has a snowball’s chance. But that’s just my opinion.

Oh yeah, Vandevelde. Man, I just wish he would have been on teams in the past that would have developed his talents. He rode a very good TT today and can climb decently. If he weren’t so old already, I would say he’s turning into a damn fine rider. So, Chris, I’m with you in the “if only” statement.

If I just had one more gear, I...

by SpunOut on Jul 8, 2008 3:55 PM EDT   0 recs

agree the most but

Evans can attack in the mountains, Menchov i doubt.

Vandevelde maybe looking for a top 20,15.

yeah this not bonus stage are very good for time trialers or for guys like Evans, that are beaten against Valverde, Kirchen in sprints…

by semprenaroda on Jul 8, 2008 4:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

with that bonus

Kirchen almost have more, 16 seconds? 8 each?

by semprenaroda on Jul 8, 2008 4:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

True

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Side note, that it would've been great for C to be in the role sooner

but it took CSC giving him 2005 to get his back in order and then helping build on these skills and the confidence he needed to be here. He needed that build and support and confidence to know he was good and could do it. I too wish he had it sooner but hot damn this has been a great year for him. All smiles here :-)

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Jul 10, 2008 1:38 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Valverde

looks like I’m in the minority here. Has he said anything about today yet?

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 3:59 PM EDT   0 recs

Perspective

My certainty-drenched post notwithstanding, we have one highly debatable GC situation at the moment. And that’s as good as it gets.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:11 PM EDT   0 recs

Looking this on the teams side

CSC and Caisse look on paper to be the strongest ones, (talking about the mountains), and that’s Valverders & Sastres (only?) chance, imo. Isolate Cadel, hell, work even with SD (is that possible, not sure), and with the perky climbers at Euskie. Other teams can’t do much in the mountains, imo.

by Bruce Suomi on Jul 8, 2008 4:15 PM EDT   0 recs

CSC have the Schlecks and Caisse have Pereiro

all high on CG and dangerous enough to not be given to much rope.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 4:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

really?

you don’t think the field will let ol’ Pereiro Sio go up the road? why ever not?

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

indeed,

much better for them than for Cadel where Popo is the highest placed rider after him (?) and looked awful today…

by Bruce Suomi on Jul 8, 2008 4:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

not given a rope on a mountain stage?

wonder what team can control that?

by Bruce Suomi on Jul 8, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Someone

want to do a teams ranking post? I don’t need to have all the fun.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

11.30 pm here

I’m not a candidate. Plus the beers do taste good on a warm summer night!

by Bruce Suomi on Jul 8, 2008 4:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Is it

still light? Or are you too far south?

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Jul 8, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

wow

so cool. i was in paris in june, which isn’t as far north of course. but still cool to watch it stay light so late.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Nah, Bruce is telling tales

Between all the saunabathing and the drunken knifefights they don’t have time to gawk at sunsets.

by Jens on Jul 8, 2008 4:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

LOL!

Ha, you have to admit the sauna is great!

The legend of us with the knives has been highly aggrerated, I only use scissors…;-)

by Bruce Suomi on Jul 8, 2008 4:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

For all the language geeks in attendance...

... meaning me and Gav… Sauna is the only Finnish word in use in the English language. Finnish… weird, weird language… and what’s with all the last names ending in “inen”?

When Leipheimer is done mating with his Time Trialing bike... does he bite its head off and eat it?

by crashdan on Jul 8, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

finnish

is related to hungarian. and japanese. and that’s all. what are they called, finno-ugric or something? so can’t spell that.

so heart me some languages.

by gavia on Jul 8, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Finno-urgic...

you got the “G” and “R” backwards… Take me down to the Paradise City…

When Leipheimer is done mating with his Time Trialing bike... does he bite its head off and eat it?

by crashdan on Jul 8, 2008 4:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Glad to be back thanks :)

... there’s a bike locked up downstairs to a parking meter looks just like your avatar.

When Leipheimer is done mating with his Time Trialing bike... does he bite its head off and eat it?

by crashdan on Jul 8, 2008 5:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

funny :-)

promise it’s not mine.

my townie is blue ;-)

by gavia on