Olympics: Womens' Crono Preview!

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The women will ride one lap on the same course used for the road races, for a total of 23.8 kilometers. They will finish at Juyongguan. As with the men, the hilly nature of the course makes picking a winner difficult. This course is not a traditional crono, by any means, and not only good legs, but also skillful bike handling will be vital to success. The first woman, Alex Wrubelski of Canada, departs at 8.30 pm, PST. We will hope for a dry course, as rain will make this thingy a total crapshoot.

Let's look at a few possible favorites.

Hanka Kupfernagel, Germany. At age 34, Hanka Kupfernagel has won her share of victories. By my count, she is a four-time world champion in cyclocross, a five-time German national champion on the road, and a five time German national champion in the crono. In 2007, she won the World Championship crono, and she is the current German national champion in the discipline. Though she has spent less time on the road in recent seasons than some of her rivals, few among them can boast her results at the international level. She brings a big engine and long experience to this Olympic crono. My pick to win.

Marianne Vos, The Netherlands. Vos is the current Dutch national champion in the crono, which she secured by beating Mirjam Melchers-Van Poppel, who will also ride in Beijing. Vos finished a disappointing (for her) sixth in the road race, saying afterwards that she simply lacked the legs to follow the winning move. Her finishing speed allowed her to win the sprint behind the break, but that was not enough to bring home a medal. Certainly, she will want to do better in the crono, but it's hard to say whether the form will be there, when she so rarely saw the front of the bike race two days ago. At the same time, Vos has a huge talent on the bike, or the sort that must nearly always place her among the favorites. I'm not writing her off at this Olympics just yet.

Kristin Armstrong, The United States. A four time national champion in the crono in the United States, Kristin Armstrong has planned her season around this race. Armstrong has spent nearly all of her career racing in the United States, and has few international results. But the ones she has are pretty darn impressive. In 2006, she won the World Championship in this event, and has twice made the podium at Worlds. She has the climbing ability to ensure that the course will not thwart her chances, though a more traditional crono course would likely suit her better. Like several other of the favorites, she scouted the course early in the season, and has tailored her training accordingly. The crono is her specialty, and she will put up a big ride, for sure.

Nicole Cooke, The United Kingdom. The winner of the road race, Nicole Cooke is clearly on good form for these Olympics. The British team announced following the road race that she would also contest the crono. Did she intend to race the crono all along? It's impossible to believe that she did not. Despite her undisputed talent, though, Cooke has not won an international level crono, since 2001, when she raced as a junior. There's always a first, and when better than the Olympics to open her account? Though not a specialist, Cooke has a huge engine. She made that clear in the road race. But unlike the road race, she will be able to use neither her finishing speed nor her tactical saavy in the race against the watch, and she is at a slight disadvantage against specialists like Armstrong and Kupfernagel.

Jeannie Longo-Ciprelli, France. More than ten years ago, Longo-Ciprelli won the Olympic gold in this event in Atlanta. It seems unlikely that she will repeat the feat here in Beijing, but her ride in the road race, while not tactically especially sound, showed that she has good form for these races. Her palmares are unparalleled in the sport. At 49 years old, it's impossible to call her the favorite, equally impossible to count her out altogether.

Others. Unlike the average race, even those women not counted among the obvious favorites are in with a chance, and can claim some impressive results. There is no packfill in the Olympic crono. Here are a few others who might have a shot at spoiling the party for the favorites.

Mirjam Melchers-Van Poppel, a former Dutch national champion, second behind Vos this year. She is a talented one day rider and cyclo-cross racer. Not a specialist, but eh, no slouch either.
Christine Thorburn, former US national champion, former podium finisher at Worlds.
Tatiana Guderzo, Italy, third in the road race, two-time Italian national crono champion, but not really a specialist
Judith Arndt, former German national champion in the crono, but more of a stage racer and one day rider - she's the current World Cup leader - than a crono specialist. The hilly course might suit her, but probably not as well as her team mate, Kupfernagel.
Edita Pucinskaite Lithuania, climber-stage racer. The hilly course gives Pucinskaite a shot at this crono that she would not likely have on a more traditional course. She has twice won the Giro d'Italia Donne, and boasts a rainbow jersey won on the road in 1999, but is not a crono specialist.
Emma Johansson, Sweden, clearly on form after her second place finish in the road race, but not a specialist. She does, however have a cutey webby.
Sara Carrigan, Australia, dropped out of the road race early, suggesting that she is serious about the crono. She has yet to win a major international level crono, but she's come close to being national champion in Australia during her short career. Outside shot.

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