For most grand tours there's at least a modicum of debate over whether victory lies more in the ability to climb or chrono. Rarely are fans and riders alike so blatantly hit over the head with a conclusion as we are heading into this Vuelta a Espana: non-climbers need not apply. Previewing the action comes down to looking not so much at whether the race will be won in the mountains; the real question is which mountain?

First, I have to say how great it is to be having this conversation at all. Last year's course was appallingly dull, a sheepish attempt to atone for Spanish cycling's past sins and perhaps the Operacion Puerto legacy by devising a parcours so devoid of challenge... [how devoid of challenge?] It was so devoid of challenge that even the most hardened cheater probably wouldn't have squandered $10k in blood treatments for a couple of modest mountain stages. OK, fine, it wasn't easy; it's never easy to race for three weeks. But it sure was dull.

Anyway, Spanish cycling politics are still a work in progress, but the terrain and the riders aren't. So the Vuelta has gone back to its bread-and-butter, serving up a variety of challenges in the Pyrenees, Catabrian Mountains (due west of the Pyrenees), and the smaller rises around Madrid. Each of these three phases threatens to be decisive, and none can be dismissed out of hand without great risk.

More en el flip...

First, hat tip to Climbbybike.com for today's info...

Phase 1: Pyrenean

Starting on stage 7, following an early rest day, the road turns straight up into Andorra and arguably takes on the toughest stage of the Vuelta. Before topping out at the Alto de Naturlandia – La Rabassa, the peloton will take in four rated climbs, each one higher than the last -- literally in the case of the finale, where the peloton goes back up La Rabassa for a second consecutive ascent, only with another 4km tacked on the end. While climbbybike.com doesn't do a full profile of the Alto de Naturlandia, they have a nice profile of La Rabassa: the first km is 10%, then kms 3-5 and 7 are all in the vicinity of 9%; the final 6km are in the 4-6% range. The Naturlandia adds 200 meters of altitide in 4km, an average of 5%. So the lower slopes will put the hurt on the peloton, twice, with a long, non-awful grind to the finish.

Stage 8 is arguably just as hard, if you just look at the climb ratings: two cat-1s, a cat-2 and the hors categoire Pla-de-Beret. Except the Vuelta site shows the finale as a cat-1, not above-category, and CN explains the rating thusly:

The final will be the hors-category finish climb to the Pla de Beret. It is only 1880 metres high and not quite as steep, but it is the finishing climb after all and deserves its higher ranking.

So if it's last, it's h.c.? Color me unconvinced. It's a hard day, but the previous day's 220 km look worse than stage 8's 160km. The final day in the Pyrenees bounces up and down a lot on the road to Sabiñánigo (my favorite name of the race), but isn't likely to draw out the contenders. Still, this first weekend of the race will be something to see.

Phase 2: Cantabrian

The Vuelta is Won on the Angliru? Perhaps; I mocked that notion when the subject was Alpe d'Huez, but the Angliru is a completely different animal. Backing up, now the race has driven west along the northern coast of Spain to Asturias, and to the lower peaks of the Cantabrian range that separate the verdant north from the dry, dusty interior. Props to the organizers on one point: the action starts on a Saturday (again) and the dust won't settle til Sunday eve.

The profile:

Note that the red sections are over 10%. The worst stretch, the legendary Cueña les Cabres, tops out at 23.6% just 3km from the summit. The rest of the stage consists of two cat-3 climbs and two cat-1 climbs, including the Alto de Colladiella (9km, topping out over 10%) and Alto de Cordal (5km averaging 9%). At 210km, this stage is going to kill a lot of legs. People who thought they were contenders, sorta maybe, will be long, long gone by day's end. The autobus will struggle to make the time cut. But whether the race will actually be decided here is another matter. Sometimes a course is so incredibly difficult that it really doesn't help anyone.

The next day, it's off to the Puerto de San Isidro, summited just before the finish at the ski station E.E. Fuentes de Inverno. Why they didn't stop the race 1km sooner and just call it the Puerto de San Isidro stage instead... beyond me. But it's a cat-1 hump up the Puerto after five other rated climbs, so the stage won't be fun, particularly coming as it did after the Angliru. Whoever isn't dead from the day before might see in this lesser finish a real opportunity to attack. I mean, if you were preparing to launch an attack, would you choose the 23% slope or maybe the 7% one? The third Cantabrian stage humps up the Puerto de Somiedo before levelling off on the way out of Asturias and into Castilla y Leon.

Third Phase: Navacerradan

This is more of a one-off: the final time trial up the Alto de Navacerrada. I can't find much information other than the fact that it's 17km, including 7km uphill. The riders gain 550 meters in those 7km, putting the average gradient in the 7-8% range. This won't be easy, and will likely favor the mountain men... but the 10km run-in and the non-threatening gradient might not knock out the more rounded GC types. It's tempting to think of a penultimate, uphill time trial as decisive, and it may well be. But after the previous phases, the only guys left standing will probably be of the same type, meaning the short ITT won't separate them out any more than the first 19 stages did.