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Vuelta a Espana Points Competition: Almost Perfect

Vuelta2_medium

Special Jersey City Points Edition!

 

I'm in Jersey City tonight, about to drop off my youngest at college, so to help me deal with empty nest syndrome here's my contribution- the first of many Podium Cafe Vuelta previews!

 

Its interesting. Yeah, this year's Vuelta is all about the climbers.  True true. But check out that startlist again with a mind towards the sprinters and the points competition. Wow. I say that this Grand Tour will have the best points competition of the year- maybe.

Why maybe?  I mean you have Boonen and Bennati. Freire and Zabel. Duque and Napolitano. Rebellin and Bettini. Herrero and Florencio. Vaitkus, and Bazayev and Usov and Haedo.  That's a pretty good lineup and again it compares favorably to what the Giro and Tour had to offer. Breakaways on the flatter stages are gonna have a difficult time staying away as there are multiple teams that will want to run down any break.

 

So what's the problem?  Simple: no Columbia in general and Cavendish in particular. They have other fish to fry in Ireland and Britain (Cavendish and Eisel) and Deutchland (Greipel and Ciolek)and Poland (more Ciolek and Greipel?)  and Missouri (???). IMO this is a shame and it speaks to the overcrowded cycling calendar. Teams are stretched too thin right now with too many races  and too many tired riders. the result is that we don't get to see the four best sprinters this year, Boonen, Bennati, Cavendish, and Freire, racing at the same time.

 

Hell I would have been happy with Ciolek instead of Cavendish but there's no way that either of those will race in Spain when Britain and Germany beckon.

 

Sigh. Its enough to make me want to go through the futile exercise of rationalizing the calendar this offseason.

 

But enough with the what ifs.... wait- one more:  I'm surprised that JJ Rojas ain't partaking for Caisse d'Epargne. I guess they are serious about contesting the GC? Good luck with that one!   Let's give a Podium Cafe Points Preview on the jump!

 

Star-divide

 

 

The Big Two

 

Tom Boonen. What a year! Waaaaaaaay back in April Chris wrote a post, Boonen Saves His Spring.  Good reading there- but what about his summer? Tornado Tom um blew his chances for the Tour and so this makes this Vuelta his own personal Redeem Grand Tour. Heaven knows he has serious motivation and he's fresh off two stage wins in the ENECO Tour. so he has to be counted on as the favorite. Still he publicly complained about his leadout train in ENECO and he has no Steegmans for the Vuelta so all is not perfectly swell in the Quickstep camp. Odds: 1: 2

 

Daniele Bennati. Like Boonen, the Handsome One, has also had a difficult year but unlike Boonen that's because he's been hurt. His fall in last year's Vuelta kept him out of all competition until the Tour of Romandie and he followed up that tune-up race with winning the Points competition over Cavendish in the Giro. With Boonen not able to sniff out the startlist for the Tour, Benna looked like the odds-on favorite to ad a second Points crown to his year but then that darned knee flared up and forced him out until the ENECO where he snagged a stage win. So inquiring minds want to know- will he repeat his Giro win? One factor going for him is that he can handle hills better than Boonen.  Plus he's freakin' gorgeous.  Odds: 1:1


One Eye on the Worlds

Oscar Freire. You know what the Points winner from the Tour did in the Vuelta last year: 

Stage 1- 2nd
Stage 2- 1st 
Stage 3- 2nd
Stage 5- 1st
Stage 6- 1st
Then he left the race before stage 10 saying that he's done his Worlds prep.  Ahhh!  Wouldn't it be love-er-ly if Oscarito saw his home Tour through?  Odds: 5:1

Paolo Bettini.  Boonen's teammate is huntin' for stages before he too most likely will drop out to save his Worlds form. Odds: 35:1

Daniele Rebellin- Did you just read what I wrote for Freire and Bettini?  Good.  Odds: 40:1

The Kids

Leonardo Duque. 4th in the Points at the Tour, but no better than 2nd on any stage, this Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle looks to finish high in the points race here due to shear tenacity.  I'm hoping that he bags a win. Odds: 15:1

JJ Haedo. His year has not gone as well as many Americans (especially those with him on their VDS team) had hoped but here's a chance for him to make a statement that he deserves a place on CSC- beyond the fact that his presence here means that Carlos Sastre just won't have the backing that he did in the Tour. Still there are some encouraging signs for those in Haedo's corner including a 2nd in stage 2 of ENECO- over Boonen and Benna. My guess is that he's gonna be overlooked by his competition and so might sneak a win. Odds: 20:1

The Old Guy

Eric Zabel.  Goin' out in style with all three Grand Tours in his account. Sentiment dictates that we all root for him in maybe his last Grand Tour ever.  Will Boonen and Benna agree?  I say he bags one last stage.  Odds: 10:1

Others

Unibrow- Danilo Napolitano.  Big disappointment this year taking over the Daniele Bennati Memorial Handsome Sprinters Chair over at Team Lampre. Still he has two wins over the hill in Portugal last week so maybe he's rounding into form? Odds: 12:1

Davide Herrero.  Looked real competitive at Pais Vasco last spring and hasn't followed up on that at all.  Odds: 35:1

Xavier Florencio Cabre. The Spanish Bweegster has shown squat all year.  Maybe he's get out on a break.... nah. Odds: 75:1

Bazayev and Vaitkus.  The Astana law firm. Interesting selections here.  Both can and WILL help pull in the hills for the big boys on the team but for the flat stages if these two can work together they could do some surprisin'. Odds: 40:1

Alexandre Usov.  Not much hair.  Or results. Will crack the top 10 on some stages. Odds: 50:1

 

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I'd love to see Oscar wipe the floor with them (again) but...

He’ll win a few and the retire to focus on an unprecedented 4th World Championship!

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Aug 25, 2008 9:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Which

he won’t win.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Aug 26, 2008 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still smarting from the Tour, huh?

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Aug 26, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

try

the entire season

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Aug 26, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

har...

:- )

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Aug 26, 2008 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Say hi to North Jersey for me

Good analysis as always. How many chances for the sprinters are there? UNlike the Tour, it seems like when they aren’t going up, they’re rolling easy.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Aug 26, 2008 9:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And how many of them are going to actually stick around

long enough to contest the jersey? Oscarito is pulling out, I’d assume Boonen and Zabel will as well. I can’t remember if Bennati has any plans for Worlds but assuming he does I’m not sure 3 weeks worth of climbing is going to do his knee any good.

So who’s actually left standing at the end that won’t win it by default?

Love the write up btw.

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 10:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Benna

He’s unlikely to make the Azurri worlds team, I think. There’s too many other one day riders hangin’ about Italy for that. I don’t think it will really be a sprinters course this time in Varese, though someone like Freire could hang on for the finale as he has previously. It depends on how it’s raced, of course. Sometimes these “hard and hilly” worlds courses don’t turn out to be all that decisive. Still, as far as I know, Benna’s not on the long list for Italia.

I s’pose it’s possilbe that the points goes to a climber or GC rider at the Vuelta, this time. But judging from the way the previous grand tours have been raced this year, I’m having a hard time imagining anyone placing consistently high enough day after day. Letting the breakaway kids have their day on the non-sprint stages seems to be all the rage these days.

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

meant to add

yay! cool preview.

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't think

the Worlds course favored any sprinters either until I heard Oscarito and Boonen both say they’d checked the course out and thought they could win on it. If that’s so then they’re either thinking their teams will keep things together enough at the end so they’ll have a chance, or they are drastically over estimating their teams or themselves. They must think they have a chance if they’re going to actually take the time to show up and ride.

And I’m guessing Zabel shows up for a variety of reasons – it could be his last WC ride, his last chance, there’s really no course that doesn’t suit him, take your pick.

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

I think Zabel or Freire could survive to the end, just because that’s what they do. Benna can certainly climb, and maybe they’ll bring him along as a second card to play. Boonen? Hard to say. Dude has won Flanders and stuff.

Depends on how they race it. I mean, the past two years of worlds courses were supposed to be hard and too much for the sprinters, but they pretty much ended in bunch sprints.

I haven’t seen any talk of Benna being considered for the worlds team, but I could have just missed it along the way.

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bennati

to me he’s perfect for the Azzurri. He’ll either give them a sprint chance, or he’ll work for the other guys. Maybe I’m reading too much into the 2007 Ronde, but he seems like a good teammate. Always an issue for Italia.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Aug 26, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good points both

I guess we should probably not jump the gun and wait until October actually rolls around and we see who’s on the roster and how they’re riding at that time.

Then again, what fun is cycling without opinion based speculation?

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

INdeed

The day the Podium Cafe switches to an all-fact-based format will be our last day in existence.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Aug 26, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did you hear that

Cippo was considering coming out of retirement again?

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No :-)

But I couldn’t resist an unsubstantiated rumor to fit in with everyone else around here.

Admit it – you’re heart skipped a beat when you read that comment though, didn’t it?

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hehehe

Bennati could learn a lot from Cipo.

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

(quietly giggling)

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Uh?

Benna is style personified.

by Albertina on Aug 26, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Cipo isn't? Come on!

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Aug 26, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is so not right.

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Aug 26, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is so

Mario :-)

The greatest sprinter who ever lived.

"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

by Drew... on Aug 26, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TC with a Hennie Kuiper rant

in 3… 2…

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris... on Aug 26, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I just threw up a little into my mouth...

I know, it said "als" instead of "ist"... don't give me any crap...

by crashdan on Aug 26, 2008 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

facts?!

what are these facts you speak of?

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

exactly

you don’t really think that Lyne is my real name now do you?

by lyne on Aug 26, 2008 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it isn't?

but, but, gavia is mine.

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait... people doubted "Gavia" as your real name?

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Aug 26, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

just makin' sure

i mean, if lyne isn’t really lyne…

what is truth anyway?

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what?

I know, it said "als" instead of "ist"... don't give me any crap...

by crashdan on Aug 26, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well I'm glad we cleared that all up.

I know, it said "als" instead of "ist"... don't give me any crap...

by crashdan on Aug 26, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

certo

all is claro.

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

who's vie?

never heard of ’em

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

me neither.

maybe that’s lyne’s real name?
Are we sure lyne is even a she?

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Aug 26, 2008 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

She sells sea shells down by the sea shore...

… so obviously lyne’s not he, she’s she.

I know, it said "als" instead of "ist"... don't give me any crap...

by crashdan on Aug 26, 2008 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't forget that oscarito does well on those slight uphill finishes

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Aug 26, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yep

and can survive ze climbs to get to the finish too!

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ya hear that Chris!!!!

"I won! I won! I don't have to go to school anymore." -- Eddy Merckx, after winning his first bike race

by ELVISGOAT on Aug 26, 2008 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

See below :)

I know, it said "als" instead of "ist"... don't give me any crap...

by crashdan on Aug 26, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So... essentially the winner will be...

… someone with no hope at the World’s (best if that person has no hope of being selected for a World’s team), and still be able to drive the autobus across the line before being hit over the head with the Backstedt Clock of Doom.

I know, it said "als" instead of "ist"... don't give me any crap...

by crashdan on Aug 26, 2008 6:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

pretty much exactly

backstedt clock of doom.

damn, that’s good.

by gavia on Aug 26, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Need to get Veloki on that one...

I know, it said "als" instead of "ist"... don't give me any crap...

by crashdan on Aug 26, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bennati was my pick

Napolitanno wons two here. In the sprints he had the position and the experience, but the explosiveness, not much.

by semprenaroda on Aug 27, 2008 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

and Matti Breschel

he had some nice victories in this year. Should has some oportunities?

by semprenaroda on Aug 27, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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