What do you want, a column made up of "analysis," and "information," or a top ten list? I thought so.
1. Linus Gerdemann, Columbia
First, after his injuries in March, this has become his entire season. Second, he's hot as a pistol right now, having just won the Tour de l'Ain and the Coppa Agostini. Third, Columbia have the magic touch. Fourth, there aren't really any Spaniards around. And fifth... I just think this is a good course for him. He's known more for climbing, but his time trials are good enough: lots of top-20s, fifth at the big D-Tour ITT last year, etc. The skill balance of this parcours looks by my guess to be about 60-40 in favor of climbing. Isn't that Linus?
2. Gustav Larsson, CSC
Unlike a lot of guys coming later in this list, Larsson hasn't raced much since his decent outing at the Giro. His silver medal performance in Beijing looks more like the start of a new peak than, say, Jens! Voigt trying to extend his summer form. Also, while time trialing is his bread-and-butter, he didn't seem too troubled by the climby Beijing course. Just guessing, but usually the power guys can hang with the climbers up to a certain grade, and the D-Tour doesn't usually feature awful grades. If he isn't killed off in the first few stages (when riders might be holding back), he may put in a serious smackdown for the win. Doesn't hurt that he's on CSC either.
3. Jens! Voigt, CSC
Til proven otherwise... Voigt has two grand tours in his legs, plus the Tour de Suisse and the Olympics, so if he does win here for a third straight year, at age 36, he may be even more of a freak of nature than I thought. He'll be well motivated, not having ridden for himself since Criterium International, but there's a coterie of serious climbers in the race who might just wear him out and thwart his strategy of one big uphill effort and a nice final ITT.
4. Bernhard Kohl, Gerolsteiner
One last hurrah for the blue boys on home soil. Better still, the king stage is on Kohl's home soil, Austria, so if the race is going to blow up right away, expect the local Tour de France hero to be right in it. He also proved last month that he can bust out a time trial when a top place is on the line, a great indicator of mental makeup.
5. Christian Knees, Milram
Talkin out of you-know-where, but then these smaller tours are pretty unpredictable. Another motivated German, as well as the guy who won the Bayern Rundfahrt, for what it's worth. He's got a little more balanced skill set than the remaining contenders, so I'm sticking here. If I don't sound all that confident, well, there you go.
5. Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Silence! Lotto
Hey, at least he'll be well supported [rim shot]. VDB2.0 is more the pure climber type, so his hope of moving up on this list is to help break Voigt and Larsson on the big Austrian stage. Still, you can't count out young guys with no time trial history on a final time trial. Statistics don't tell you much in small sample sizes.
6. Vlad Karpets, Caisse d'Epargne
I haven't seen who the captain is, Vladi or Lopez. Guess is that they'll decide on the road in stage 2. Like Larsson, he needs to hang tough for the first 5 days, then start cracking skulls in the ITT. But Karpets isn't coming off a silver medal, and hasn't really been himself all season AFAIK. Still, he doesn't have a ton of race days in the legs, and 19th in the Olympic road race is nothing to sneeze at. I'll put him here for now but will be surprised if he doesn't move up.
7. Laurens Ten Dam, Rabobank
Another wild card. Ten Dam was solid at the D-Tour last year, riding for Unibet and bagging 8th overall. I'm thoroughly unsold on his time trialing, and his Tour-Olympics calendar is exhausting just to think about. But he's on the shortlist for a good reason, and should be around making noise on stage 2.
8. David Lopez, Caisse d'Epargne
Third last year, but he's got a zillion race days in his legs. But he was third at the GP Ouest-France a couple days ago. But his time trialing is horrendous. But Spaniards can't lose. My brain hurts.
UPDATE: Denis Menchov is a late addition (h/t Lucybears) to the startlist. Ten Dam may still be the captain. Stay tuned.