Vuelta '08: Running Down the Teams

Last time we saw a grand tour, the story on the road was teamwork vs., um, something less. A poignant lesson was learned (or re-learned) by all, making my preview of the teams contesting the Maillo Oro several times more vital than it already was. [Zero times several equals... a lot!] W/o ado...

The Behemoth

Astana... duh

There are GC teams, there are strong GC teams, and then there's the We-Will-Bury-You style of GC squads, like we're seeing with Astana. For starters, Bruyneel made the Vuelta the site of their Revenge Tour once ASO barred them from France, and even the last-minute appearance (and conquest) at the Giro doesn't change plans. For those of us media types bent on lapping up the conflict angle, the story has only gotten better: ASO are now half-owners of the Vuelta, making Astana a baby-blue wedge between them and the Contador-loving Spanish race owners Unipublic. Will tensions increase as the three-headed monster of Contador, Leipheimer and Kloden creep up the GC ladder? One can only hope.

Back on the road, where such grist doesn't count for much, the action will be even more sensational. CSC owned the Tour after starting with questions about their captain, some additional studs who looked more like top-10 than anything else, and a seasoned strategist. Well, last time Levi Leipheimer attended a grand tour with anything approximating preparation, he nearly won. Contador, meanwhile, is two for his last two, not to mention well-rested along with the remainder of his team. Both of these guys look like prohibitive podium choices, against a field led largely by guys who raced hard the last two months. Kloden is more of a mystery, just having left the Tour du Limousin, but he was second in the Tour de Suisse and won the Tour de Romandie, so if he pretends for the first couple weeks that he's in Switzerland, he should do well. And Johan Bruyneel has engineered ten eleven grand tour victories.

In any event, Astana will be the only team launching multiple dangerous GC contenders when needed, while holding down the fort with seasoned pack-pacers the rest of the time. I am serious when I say they could sweep the podium. Then, only then, would Christian Prudhomme's head explode.

cont'd on the flip...

Best of the Rest

Euskaltel-Euskadi

The Basque Boys should enjoy this Vuelta. First, though the route seems to circumvent Pais Vasco proper, the real battles will all be waged within a short drive, leaving no doubt who will enjoy the best fan support. Second, if it's ridiculous climbing you like, here's your race. Granted, it's all on Igor Anton -- Astarloza isn't ideally suited to the climbs, and just spent himself at the Tour. But while Anton's resume is still wafer-thin, his eighth at last years Tour of SnoreSpain, at age 24, bodes well. He'll have to come up with a nice time trial on stage 5 for the dream to survive early childhood. Anyway, it's a strong team, with Egoi Martinez, Amets Txurruka and Inigo Landaluze supporting Anton and Astarloza. Woulda been an electrifying team had Golden Sammy made the trip...

CSC-Saxo Bank

It's hard to downrate the world's undisputed #1 team, but CSC have sent their B-team to Granada for the last grand tour under their famous name. Yes, Kolobnev and Kroon will help, and guys like Cuesta and Breschel are experienced, useful teammates. But you know Bjarne's off his focus when he gives a precious roster spot to a sprinter (Haedo). I think Riis went for rested over strong or decorated... choices borne of necessity in September. Sensible enough, but it won't result in the kind of control we saw in July. Moreover, Sastre himself isn't exactly my pick to win, after all he's done on (and presumably off) the bike over the last 10 weeks. His Tour win was the defining moment of 2008, but it's not realistic to expect much more.

Caisse d'Epargne

I keep touting them as a great squad, and they keep making me look stoopid. Actually, they had a few decent days at the Tour early on, but even that was tomfoolery, once CSC showed them how and when to win a race. So you can rattle off the names: Valverde, Rodriguez, Arroyo, Moreno (not Pereiro, BTW)... but I'll learn my lesson and say, so what? What Gavia said -- Valverde should get ready for Varese. Maybe Arroyo or Moreno can hunt for top-10 spots.

Not-Ready-for-GC-Prime-Time Teams

Rabobank

Another temptation I intend to resist. Rabobank often look good on paper, but don't make much impact when the race rolls out. The difference, however, is Robert Gesink, a brilliant young climber for whom this parcours is made. Too bad it's his first grand tour; when he gets a little seasoning, he'll give Dutch fans a real treat. Ardila and Niermann are good supporters, and Juan Flecha must enjoy an occasional trip home. But Oscar Freire will probably be the focal point before it's over. Which means stage wins.

Lampre

If you take Damiano Cunego at his word and believe he's not here to contest the overall, what you see are the Kid, Ballan, Napolitano, Bruseghin... in other words, one king-hell of a stage-hunting squad.

And then... everyone else. One last thought on teams: this isn't likely to be much fun for the Continental squads (Andalucia and Xacobeo Galicia), as the Vuelta has conjured up about as unworkable a formula for small teams as you can imagine. First, it may be short, but any team time trial is going to favor the strongest. Secondly, the ITT on stage 5 will torpedo a lot of GC hopes. Between those two events, the chances of a small-time rider grabbing the gold shirt and holding it for a few days are close to nil. And in between, the flat stages will feature all of the fastest non-Manxmen on the planet. That leaves stage-hunting, and not anytime soon.