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Around SBN: The End Of Sabanball: Details, Barbarians, And Precision

One More Power Poll de Oro

Vuelta2_mediumAll over but the VDS shouting now. This list sorta tracks the current general classification, though with a few wrinkles in the hopes of at least pretending there's a reason to read it.

1. Alberto Contador, AST ↔

Dominant. Massive. An impregnable fortress of gold jersey-ness. He very likely is the rider of his generation. How much more evidence do we need?

2. Levi Leipheimer, AST ↑

I said this in the live thread: nobody in the GC sector of the current peloton knows his body better than Levi. Sastre is comparable, and what I mean by this is these guys know how to nurse their strength to maximize performance. Both seem to hold back for weeks at a time in order to strike when it matters. Both also know how to ride when the course is just a little too much for them. Levi also completely kicks ass in the time trial realm, which is the difference in the direction of their arrows. Love him or not, his riding is pretty respectable.

3. Carlos Sastre, CSC ↓

Third is pretty a propos for a guy who not only won the Tour, but presumably had to go on the speaking and criterium circuits, unlike the two guys he's looking up at. This wasn't exactly his ideal parcours, with shorter and steeper stuff than the Tour routes on which he excels. And anything he can do, Contador can do better. So, well done Carlos, he wore his CSC jersey honorably right to the end.

4. Zeke Mosquera, XAC ↓

Zeke didn't quite light up the Angliru, as I'd predicted he would (while the bigger names marked each other). For that, I have bitterly marked him down a peg. A more generous assessment of his performance might argue that he was better the next day than a lot of guys, and that his 4th overall is a fair improvement (and best of the Conti-Pro guys)against a superior field to the 2007 crowd in which he was 5th. But after six months of covering races, my reviews now consist largely of personal valentines and vendettas. Be faster next time, Zeke.

5. Alejandro Valverde, CDE ↑

In fairness to Valverde, the complaint about him in grand tours is that he's not really a threat to win. This doesn't mean that he sucks at them; au contraire, two top-10s at the Tour, and now 2nd and probably 5th in the Vuelta means he's a potential winner in one of those years where the field is noticeably thin or banged up. And in Spain, or Italy, not France. If his game is showing the colors, racking up points, and bagging some stages to go along with his one-day mastery, I'd say he's doing a fabulous job. Cycling Quotient would agree.

6. Bob Gesink, RAB ↑

The Rookie holds an 11-second lead over Valverde heading into the final stage of consequence, a not-terribly-hard uphill time trial. I say he doesn't hold. Fine job in the last uphill stage, and if he suffered the day before on the Angliru... who can blame him?

7. J-Rod, CDE ↑

This is either a shocker or a barometer of how the Vuelta isn't the Tour. Joaquin Rodriguez is a devastating classics rider and former Champion of Spain as a consequence. But top ten in a grand tour? I suppose if there were a flat 50km time trial, he'd get blown out the back of the GC, but this course consists of short, sharp pains and a whole lot of little else. Well, a few surprise uphill finishes, which also suit J-Rod. Anyway, he was excellent on the Angliru, and that alone should earn him some respect. So, here you go:

Respect.

8. David Moncoutie, COF ↑

Token Frenchman riding aggressively in pursuit of a minor jersey. Not complaining, he's doing his thing, which unlike 2007 includes being on a bike. At 32, this seems to be his ceiling: KOM jerseys and stage wins. Doesn't get me overly excited, but he knows what he's doing.

9. Marzio Bruseghin, LAM ↑

Currently 11th, I'm looking for a big time trial from him on Saturday, where on gentler slopes he can easily pull back a minute on Zaugg and two minutes on Egoi. He's not exactly an ace chronoman, but he did win the Giro's long, flat ITT and placed seventh in the Plan de Corones ITT. Aside from Levi and Bert, that's as solid a resume as you'll find in this list.

10. Egoi Martinez, EUS ↔

A note on ratings: Egoi was unrated before, so arguably the correct arrow is . OTOH, since the last power poll he fell from first overall to 9th. Also, if history is a guide, he's about to get his head handed to him in the Navacerrada ITT; his past results usually begin with an "8" and don't stop there (81st, 89th, etc). Still, with a minute in hand on Oliver Zaugg and 90 seconds on Daniel Moreno, he just might hang onto that last top-10 spot. Anyway, he's had a nice adventure for the otherwise disappointing Euskaltel effort, so I'll grant him that last place. Hell, if Igor Anton made it through that fateful corner, the orange jersey would have been well represented on this list.

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Comments

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I wonder how much of an advantage it is

that Contador and Levi didn’t ride the TdF but Sastre did.

Enough to change the standings? I think all three have been hugely impressive.

"Tourists and locals are watching from sidewalk cafes. Non-racers. The emptiness of those lives shocks me." Tim Krabbe

by cyclingchallenge on Sep 15, 2008 4:03 PM EDT reply actions  

just a guess

Levi probably wouldn’t be doing as well. Contador’s young, he’d still be kicking ass.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 15, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup

I actually don’t think Sastre is suffering to much from the Tour. Remember he has had the Tour/Vuelta-combo in mind all season. He was hardly noticeable in races before July. If anything, all the hoopla after the Tourwin + his contractstatus has drained more energy. If Contador had trained with the Tour/Vuelta in mind, the (Vuelta)results would be the same.

Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets

by Jens on Sep 15, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bob vs. Al

Could be interesting. Valverde has to be favored to overtake Gesink but to me its not a slam dunk.

Gesink has ridden two hilly TT’s this year:

A) the 20km Pais Vasco course where he finished 5th, just 1’16" behind Contador

B) The 31km Dolphin course where he finished 10th, 2’08" behind Valverde.

Both times are respectable but he has little cushion this time. But I wonder if Gesink mainly loses time on the downhills? I don’t know but maybe someone here does? I just keep remembering his nightmare downhill in Paris-Nice.

However this course in Spain is short at 17km and all uphill and so between the shorter length and no downhill might make this dual very close.

by ursula on Sep 15, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Fair enough

I’m counting on him to be tired at the end of his first 3-week race, hence my prediction. But it’s just a gut feeling, really, and a nod to experience, which is often a big deal in ITTs.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 15, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh for sure

I also think Valverde will overtake Gesink. I’m just trying to find a competitive angle. Will be interesting to watch.

by ursula on Sep 15, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

seeing the profile

seems that don’t have much downhill, only climbing.

i agree Valverde is already much more tired than Gesink, and this will make a diference. Despite the 10 seconds i think Gesink will hold despite the pressure.

stil missing one more mountain stage before this ITT?

by semprenaroda on Sep 15, 2008 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

How about a suggested revision?

I submit!

“Alberto Contador: Dominant. Massive. An impregnable fortress of gold jersey-ness. He very likely is the PROVISIONAL rider of his generation. How much more evidence do we need?”

I will bite my nails until 10 days after the end of the Vuelta.

Hope all are well; this race is fireworks!

jason

by 72andSunny on Sep 15, 2008 5:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Admittedly

he could get a run for his money from someone we haven’t seen hit their stride yet. He’s an anomaly in that he’s made it to this level so quickly, but that doesn’t rule out others from his same age bracket getting there in a normal time frame.

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 15, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm Just looking at birthdates

Most likely contenders:
A Schleck- 2 1/2 years younger than Bert
Kreuziger- 3 1/2 years younger
Gesink- 3 1/2 years younger

These seem the most likely at the moment; they are all a bit younger. Otherwise, these guys are further away in their development but they have the potential:

Uran- 4 years 2 months younger
Nibali- 1 year 11 months younger
Ricco, if he comes back okay- 1 month younger

Gerdemann, LL Sanchez, Monfort all could do pop out a great GT but shouldn’t be expected to normally beat Contador.

by ursula on Sep 15, 2008 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bauke Mollema

4 years younger than Bert

This year (first pro year)
6th Overall, Vuelta a Castilla y León,
7th overall, Tour of Germany
Height 1.81 m (5 ft 111⁄2 in)
Weight 64 kg (140 lb)—same as Contador

by JFS_PGH on Sep 15, 2008 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm

VDS note, circa 2010…

"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."

by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 16, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Leipheimer knows how to prepare a race.

big differences comparing his performance on Tour de Georgia and Giro against ToC, Dauphine and mostly Vuelta now.

by semprenaroda on Sep 15, 2008 8:01 PM EDT reply actions  

so, i'm seeing now

Euskaltel at risk of not put a guy in top 10!!! Can be worst?!! And the big objective, the Tour, don’t was very difference. What’s happen with this team?!

So if Egoi can be finish in top10, seems the Zubeldia’s transfer will have some discount…

by semprenaroda on Sep 15, 2008 8:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Give Zaugg some love!

He’s been inching his way up, especially in the Vuelta, just a little higher each year. He’s 27. He was 15th last year, and maybe he breaks the top 10 this year… pretty darn good for someone the announcers keep forgetting to mention.

from the g’steiner site

by JFS_PGH on Sep 15, 2008 8:30 PM EDT reply actions  

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