Vuelta a España: Mountain Time Trial Analysis
by ZoeRochelle on Sep 19, 2008 12:34 PM EDT
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Don't look at me. I'm not the expert here but I am pleading on my virtual knees for some fun and speculation from my all-things-cycling overlords here at Podium Cafe. I am excitedly looking forward to tomorrow's mountain individual time trial. It should be great fun! Granted, it'd be more edge-of-the-seat fun if we had more riders closer to AC in the GC but I'll take what I can get.
Conta is 1.17 ahead of Leipheimer. What are the chances of Levi overtaking Bert tomorrow?
Of course, being a Levi fan I'd be ecstatic if he won this thing. He deserves it. But anyone who frequents this place knows my affection for the little man with the big heart. (I find it amusing that Levi is called the little bald man when most of the peloton is little, many are very little, and quite a number are bald.)
So, what do you think -
Is Levi's only chance that Bert crashes, gets sick or has a major mechanical?
How does the length of the stage play into any advantage/disadvantage? Levi is the better TTer but it is a mountain.
How does this course look for the other top 10? Who does the course favor?
Are any other riders close enough and good enough at a mountain ITT to put fear in The Accountant? I think not but I bow to the expertise that is the Podium Cafe. (Ok, gratuitous use of as many Bert nicks as I can remember.)
Note from Gav: Have a look-see at the course profile, too. Oh, and here's the current general classification.
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That was fast. This is a fan post how'd it get to the front page so fast?
You weirded me out you all-things-cycling overlord. And you added a beautiful graphic too!
Puncher's chance
I could see Contador winning the stage, but am more inclined to go with Levi. Still, the gap is awfully large.
"If writing too much about the Classics is wrong, I don't want to be right."
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 19, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions
So what you are saying is:
Levi’s only chance that Bert crashes, gets sick or has a major mechanical
Yes, Contador can ride conservatively and still win.
However, I think (i.e., hope) that he’s going to light it up a la Armstrong for the win.
Hey, you brought it up...
I find it amusing that Levi is called the little bald man when most of the peloton is little, many are very little, and quite a number are bald.
According to CyclingNews, the average rider in the 2005 Tour de France was about 5’10 1/2" (1.79 m) tall, or on the high side of European height averages (which vary by country and study but range from about 5’9"-5’11"). Levi reportedly stands 5’7" (1.70 m), more than three inches below the pack.
I can think of guys Levi’s height or shorter (Bettini, Dumoulin, Freire, maybe Cavendish depending on which stats you believe), but if those stats still hold he is below average for the peloton.
(Unfortunately, I don’t know of any decent place to get hair stats—and I’m afraid if I look too hard those pictures of Pozzato in cornrows will come up—so I’m forced to concede you the “quite a number are bald” part.)
To veer back onto topic: I agree that it’s possible Levi will win the TT, but not by enough to take the overall win from Contador.
there is baldness...
and then there is Levi’s dome, which is in a league of its own. mind you, it never looks like his head might topple off at any minute, a la Schumi…
Not sure what height has to do with ability...
Marathon world record holder: 5’5"
Cycling world champ: 5’5"
.
.
.
the list goes on… just get over it.
And Napoleon too!
He never said height had anything to do with ability. No need to get all defensive over nothing.
Con't forget DiLuca , Simoni & McEwen
Sastre’s pretty short too.
And the baldies. Some appear to shave basketball-style, to pre-empt approaching baldness (Bettini, Schumacher), some maybe just ’cuz (Garzelli?).
But I agree that Levi’s seems different. Maybe because his head is always so clean. It looks pre-pubescent. No sign of 5 o’clock shadow. His shortness is different too. If you saw McEwen or DiLuca without a comparison you couldn’t really tell they were short. They’re proportioned well. Levi’s torso (and head) make his legs look short.
As long as I’m so far off on this tangent — does anyone else marvel at Garzelli’s eyebrows and eyelashes? Always looks as if he’s just had a facial (“Just shape the brow and tint.”).
pity that we didn't see today's (stage 19) first descent, cause that's what tomorrow's time trial is
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
hey, I just thought
it might actually be fun to have a TT on a descent. Ah, we’d find out – who is the best descender in the peloton?
Oh good god...
How many would be schlecked by the time they reached the bottom? How many would never make the bottom?
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
That is a great idea!
Mix it up! Of course, you’d have to put big pads on both sides of the road on the way down, similar to those they put in the gutter at the bowling alley when little kids bowl.
You mean those things at the bowling alley aren't
there to perfect the rebound of the ball throw? Damn. And here I thought I had something going. :-)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
today's descent of navacerreda is the side the time trial goes up tomorrow
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
glad we cleared that up
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
I didn't think the TT was a descent I just didn't get that the descent today
was the same as the TT tomorrow only going up. I’m really not that obtuse.
Hey... I thought that was called
“Navacerradan”… did someone add an “N” at the end by accident a while back? What a bummer!
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc.
my bet: contador
he too is super motivated
he knows the climb, since it’s in his own backyard, so to speak….
look to the giro’s stage 10 ten time, which also was steadily uphill from the git-go with a kicker finish
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
LEvi should win the stage i think or gain time for Bert
but even Contador fall or something like that, Levi don’t have autorization to win the Vuelta. Is so simple like that.
it will be a very comic situation
to saw the reactions of the riders, and staff. If an unexpected episode happens with Contador..
by semprenaroda on Sep 19, 2008 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
if Levi isn't in Astana
this Vuelta will be much more interesting…
by semprenaroda on Sep 19, 2008 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
He may not have permission, but...
that didn’t stop him from attacking Hincapie at the US National Road Race a couple of years ago when they were on the same team. Remember, George was defending champion and was obviously very pissed off about it in the post-race interview.
Still, he’s not going to win the Vuelta. Not enough kilometers. Too steep.
Now that I mention it...
in the Tour last year, Levi rode the final time trial like a bat out of hell trying to secure the overall victory over Contador.
didn't stop levi in 2001 from bumping heras off the vuelta podium....
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Levi will be riding for himself.
I’m guessing he would like to kick the crap out of Alberto, regardless of team orders. He may not have anything against The Acccountant, but somehow I don’t think he is exactly thrilled with JB.
If I’m Levi, what incentive do I have to be the good soldier at this point? He’ll ride balls to the wall, but it may still not make a difference, as Contador will be super motivated, as well. Levi might make up 30 seconds or so, but that’s all; the stage is just too short (17k).
Even if Levi rode well enough to make up his time deficit,
could he survive being attacked by the busloads of Alberto fans that have chartered buses to drive from his home town, Pinto, up for the time trial?
Valverde by 10 minutes
Wins the GC and in interviews telss Chris to stick it up his ass. And that he likes Drew more. ;)
(When the cats away…)
Nothing like stirring up some trouble!
I’ll bring the beer to see the reactions replayed over and over in slow mo! :-)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Naturally
Everyone loves me more. It’s the kavorka.
"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."
That mudbathing you do, disguised as "racing"
should clear that up even better than garlic and vinegar.
If not, ask Bruce he may be Latvian Orthodox (they’re neighbours after all) and could perhaps help you out.
Carlos Sastre - Tour de France winner - Born From Jets
Not a good course for Levi...
My pick: Mosquera will take the stage and Alberto will keep the jersey oro.
Mosquera is even more motivated than AC and he showed that he can climb.
Levi will get good time checks on the first part of the course, no question about that,
but the stage will be decided on the final (harder) section of the climb.
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