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Tale of the Tape: Allan Davis vs. Graeme Brown

The Tour Down Under may get taken out of the sprinters' hands when the race hits the Willunga hills on today's circuit, but so far the battle has largely featured two similar riders: Graeme Brown and Allan Davis. Both are Australian, sprinters, pushing thirty (soon), and fixtures on the B-list of sprint stage pack finishers, often found working for a star boss. Fortunately they look nothing alike. And maybe, just maybe, there are other ways to distinguish them for the casual fan.

Recall, here at the Cafe we are tinkering with some statistics as a way to evaluate riders, and in the case of sprinters there are some obvious places to explore: wins, percentage of sprints where the rider at least had a shot at winning, average placing, and head to head. The latter statistic takes on some added importance when considering guys who aren't always the team's pick to win that day. Anyway, without further ado, here are some comparisons between Davis and Brown, from January, 2007 to the present:

Rider %Finale Wins Win% AvPlace Top 10% Top 5% Head2Head
Graeme Brown 91 4 5.8 8.3 67 52 6
Allan Davis 78 8 11 5.6 80 58 15

The numbers give Davis a clear advantage. Only one caveat: it would be better if I could examine each stage a little more closely and eliminate the days when Davis has been working for Boonen (probably very few) and when Brown has been working for Oscar Freire (potentially many more). The effect of being a setup man is to make the finale, pull off before the line, and take a middlin' placing, e.g. in the teens. Brown has a fair number of those. If I get time, I will try to examine if the numbers are in fact skewed by Brown's team obligations.

Absent that, though, Davis is clearly the more accomplished sprinter. Four wins in two years for Brown is a pretty small number, and while Davis' 8 aren't earth-shattering, he has had moments of dominance in smaller races. Maybe Davis has simply had better opportunities, and in watching the TdU, the difference in quality is ever so slim. So even if you want to declare Davis the head-to-head winner, they're a pretty equal match.

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i like very much to see

the styles of the sprinters. Some like to do his train, and be launched by a teammate (Boonen, Brown), other like Cavendish,Davis prefer to wait for last 50 meters and try to pass almost in the line.

This two are very different, in style of sprint and in the capacity of hills. In that stage with a finish a little bit climby, Davis easily beat Brown (“not so easily as i expect”), Brow is like a steam machine with more power and less acelaration but if the stage is not to hard, he have energy to apply his top speed.

Brownn already say that are in shape, but i’m serious doubt that he is capable to hold the big guns in Willunga, unlike Davis that i believe he can do it, even alone.

by semprenaroda on Jan 23, 2009 7:29 PM EST reply actions  

Such interesting riders

I’ve been looking at theswe two for VDS purposes so its great to have these stats. Both of them have had a difficult two years. Hopefully for both the worst is behind them.

Brown- After 4 years of improving results he hit a personal CQ high of 608 in 07. Then last year, looking to take a big step, he did- straight back to a CQ rating of 349. I remember particularly his awful Giro results last year which ultimately drew the “loving” side of Breuknik’s personality out. I think he was called fat… I don’t remember Grahme “Crackers” Brown after that.

Early in the season he did win two low level sprints: Cala Millor where he beat um Steegmans, Rojas, and Vaitkus among others, and the 1st stage of Muria where the only name he beat was Klodo Fernandez. I’d say this year’s TDU win is better than either of those. This year I think is huge for him and if he screws up like last year he’s out of Rabo and big time racing.

Davis- He ran into the combo Disco implosion and lingering Puerto smell and he couldn’t get a team for the longest time last year until Mitsubishi picked him up. Thus he didn’t get the best of starts abnd the cobbles were largely a miss for him.

When he did get fully integrated with Mitsubishi he did well, though in minor races. He didn’t win a race until the Tour of Poland. Before that though you could see that he was gaining form as the season progressed with a 4th at GP Ouest Plouay and then, after signing with QS, a 3rd at Vattenfall. His win at Poland was also against B-teamers- Lorenzetto, Fischer, Rojas- guys like that. (Notice that Rojas keeps finishing behind these two guys just like he is not at TDU.)

So Davis has done almost no leading out of Boonen and he’s not a sprinter who’s been asked to do much of that so it will be interesting to see how QS use him. I imagine him being a strong presence on the cobbles in his own right and I have better feelings towards him than Brown.

by ursula on Jan 23, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions  

hmm.

For me, Davis is easily the more successful road sprinter. He’s made the podium at both Milano-San Remo and Paris-Tours. Brown has never really figured in a major race like that – his best results really have come on the track, at worlds and the olympics, especially. His road career, well, he has some good wins in Australia like this Tour Down Under, but he hasn’t really lit it up. A fairly erratic rider on the road, I think in part because he has raced track a great deal up until the last two seasons or so. Well, that, and he crashes a fair amount.

by Jen See on Jan 23, 2009 8:31 PM EST reply actions  

You forgot to take into consideration . . .

 . . . Brown has spent much of his career peaking for the early tours of the TDU and Langkawi.
Rather, Davis seems to be more focused on the official Euro Spring Campaign.

In the TDU, I would say that they are close with Brown maybe getting the better of him a bit more often, but by the time they get to the early races in Europe, Davis should be a better.

by Ryan_Liles on Jan 23, 2009 11:47 PM EST reply actions  

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