How they did it: last year’s best (and worst) VDS teams
by majope on Jan 25, 2009 11:06 PM EST
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Obviously, the success or failure of a VDS team depends largely on (A) knowledge and (B) luck. The better you know the riders and their teams, the better you can predict how they’ll do in the coming season. And luck is clearly a factor: some guys are just going to crash out, get sick, get suspended, or just have a bad season for whatever reason.
But there’s also got to be some strategy involved, so I thought it might be worth looking at the best and worst VDS teams from last year to see if I could ferret out anything useful about how they did it. There were 6 teams who scored over 10,000 points, so for balance I compared them to the 6 lowest-scoring teams. Was there anything worth learning? Find out below the fold...
Rule 1: You don’t have to pick the very top-scoring guys. Contador and Valverde each scored over 2000 points last year. Of these, only Valverde appears, once, among the top six teams.
You don’t even have to pick a 20 or 25 point rider—after all, the number one VDS team didn’t. But be careful! Two of the bottom six teams also tried this strategy with much less success. And two of the top six teams last year chose two 25-pointers, something not possible this year.
Rule 2: It’s also okay to have some lousy picks. The top six teams had anywhere from 6 to 12 riders who scored 100 or fewer points, including 2 to 4 who didn’t score any. The bottom six did a bit worse, with anywhere from 10 to 15 riders scoring 100 or less, with between 2 and 6 zero-scoring riders per team. But the fact that there is overlap in this area among the very best and very worst teams suggests that the number of bottom-scorers isn’t as important as the number of top-scorers. Which brings me to…
Rule 3: Be top-heavy. Five of the top six teams contained 6 or 7 riders worth 10 or more points each, while only one of the bottom six teams did. Overall, this paid off. While the occasional dud showed up, the lowest average return the top teams got on their investment was 957 per 10+ point rider.
Two of the bottom six teams decided to really spread their points around, choosing only 3 riders each who cost 10 or more points. Didn’t work. Although they made decent choices for their 3 most expensive riders (one averaged 990 point return on their three; the other 837 points), filling up your team with 4-, 6-, and 8-pointers doesn’t seem to pay off as well as having six or seven more expensive guys at the top of the roster. After all, they cost more for a reason.
Remember, though, that Chris says they've reduced a number of riders' cost to give more avenues to success--theoretically, you should be able to do better with fewer expensive riders. That's just not how it worked out last year.
Another thing to remember: Ursula recently pointed out that more races will be included next year, which might make a big difference for some riders while not changing the prospects for others much if at all.
A third difference from last year: Last year the rule was no more than two riders worth 20 points or more. This year, the rules say we can have up to three (one 25-pointer and two 20-pointers), which gives us a chance to really top load if we want to.
But the more money you have up top, the less you have to spend down below: there were a total of just 4 riders who cost one point in the bottom six teams, while the top six teams combined for 36 one-pointers. Think it as an opportunity to find next year's Great Deal. Which brings us to...
Rule 4: Keep an eye out for great deals. Luck or forecasting skill? Four of the top six teams chose David Moncoutie, whose 1-pt cost rewarded them with an impressive 575 points. Moncoutie was not chosen by any of the six bottom-scoring teams.
Great deals from a little further up the scale included Lovqvist (cost 6 points, scored 865); and Sella, Kreuziger, and Sylvain Chavanel, each of whom cost 4 points and returned 940, 716, and 676 points respectively. A couple of these guys appear in the bottom-ranked teams, but only half as often: I count 6 of these great deals in the top six and 3 in the bottom six. So it's not all about picking the (right) expensive guys, the best-scoring VDS players are also good at picking the best values.
These particular guys will cost you more this year because they scored well last year—your task is to find 2009’s equivalents: cheap riders who will break out big. Rui Costa? Bauke Mollema? How about Sweet Baby Jesus Hernandez? Decisions, decisions.
Speaking of Sella…
Rule 5: Get some dopers on your team. Yeah, that's tongue in cheek, but it is true that Kohl, Ricco, and Sella appeared twice as often among the top six teams as they did among the bottom six—in fact, the top three teams all included one or more of these riders. Not a strategy I would personally recommend, but if you do choose it...
Rule 5A: Make sure you pick the right dopers. Three of the bottom six teams blew 20 points on Alessandro Petacchi, who rewarded each of them with a scanty 105 points. No one among the top six teams picked Petacchi.
So, is any of this useful? Well, after spending some time looking at last year's top VDS teams, I did adjust my preliminary roster to dump a handful of cheapies in favor of a 14-pointer to put more weight at the top. And I'm now trying to pick inexpensive riders based on buzz, not just because they're on a team I like (or, well, I've heard of them). But my main strategy is, I'm afraid, going to be the same: if I'm going to be rooting for these guys all year, I've got to like them.
Here's to a fun and successful VDS season for all!
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You hit the nail on the head.
I went through a lot of these decisions in picking my team last year. I almost picked Petacchi but was worried about his doping problems. I put Kohl on my team mainly because he rode well in the ToC two years before.
I didn’t pick any 20-25 pointers because they are a gamble. Some may put up big points, but others may crash in April and be out until the Tour, where they don’t have form. I’m into lots of higher pointers that are capable of big things.
To find the value riders, check out magazines when they produce their season preview issue. Usually, they have team rosters and they will list the young up-and-comers that are capable of results. These guys are 1 or 2 pointers too.
I selected riders I was fond of and had no trouble cheering for. I might fond of them because they are on my VDS team though.
Rule 5 doesn't apply to you
Even if you take away Kohl’s points you still would have won, and by a comfortable margin too.
“I selected riders I was fond of and had no trouble cheering for.”
That’s what I did too. So since at least 2 out of the top 4 teams used that formula for success, that should maybe be the unofficial Rule 6.
Nice to hear from two of the VDS greats
And very nice to hear that you both went for guys you had no trouble cheering for.
Bruno, you’re making me rethink again: if I dumped two of the top guys from my team, I could spend those 45 points on three cheaper riders (say, Gilbert, Gesink, and Van Avermaet), which would spread the risk out more. Every time I think I’m close to a final roster…
Thanks for the comments!
Google is my domestique.
Hey ! I had an '08 Boonen on my team and I almost beat you.
Imagine the whooping you’ll get next year when the Boonen Battlestation is fully operational.
Disclaimer: Not saying I will actually have Boonen on my 09 Team……… but I will, …perhaps………ooh who am I kidding, he’s in. But then again , maybe not , …..there is probably a better choice out there. No , no Boonen definately. Or yes.
Here endeth the smokescreen.
You probably would have won if he had kept his nose clean.
But that’s just the gamble I try to avoid. If that whole F. Schleck debacle had come about earlier, my VDS season could have been different.
Jens
That makes two of us…..I’m peering stealthy through your smokescreen and I see….wait….almost…..hold on….OK there it is—Tommeke in a fast car with a young girl. has he been eating powdered doughnuts?
Yes, bless his soul
Kind man that he is, driving his niece to soccerpractice. The doughnuts are for bulking up for P-R. Can’t be to light on them cobbles, you know.
thanks for article
but I have already submitted my team and – despite my plans to finish in the top 100 this year – I am pretty sure I made the same mistakes as last year ;)
formerly known as cyclingchallenge
Alberto Contador
Was only picked by 1 team last year. And that team ended up somewhere in the middle of the table if I remember correctly. I guess the situation might be different this year.
Yeah, but Contador is a bit of a gamble
His main goal is always the Tour—he only did the other two Grand Tours last year because the TdF was denied him. Last I heard, he hadn’t completely ruled out the Vuelta, but I’m guessing the possibilities might boil down to:
1. Alberto wins the Tour, doesn’t bother with Vuelta. Lots of points for one Grand Tour, none for the other.
OR
2. Alberto doesn’t win Tour, goes all out to defend Vuelta title to salvage pride. Some (but not top) points for the TdF, lots for the Vuelta.
If I’m right, either way he won’t be worth what he was last year.
Google is my domestique.
The TDF suck
In general I try to steer away from guys that are focused just on the Tour – like Sam San last year. Especially if their chances seem somewhat slim, and they aren’t likely to win lots of stages along the way. I can’t decide if Valverde is going Tour and nothing much (except maybe worlds) else this year, he made noise like he needs to put less energy into anything outside of the tour next year.
As for Contador, the third option is he could have similar motivation to stomp at least a couple races pre Tour to put the internal Astana competition to rest. but yeah, overall, I’d agree that he’s not likely to be worth as much this year.
Ha!
I see similar logic is working on Contador two years in a row. He could have this year:
- Paris-Nice: just practicel might get 40 points
-C & L: wins; 200 points
-Pais Vasco: wins; 350 points
-Dauphanie: places oh 5th: 100 points
-Tour: wins; 1000 points
-Decides to do the Vuelta: wins; 1200 points
Total: 2890 points. Worth it? Absolutely. Without the Vuelta? 1690- points. Worth it? Yeah, you’d be getting your money’s worth.
The thing about the 25 pointers is not will they give you 800+ points because they will. The question is will they win 1600+ points? Last year three of the 25 pointers were totally worth buying, three were not- though they all returned something. So when looking at he 25 pointers you need to project what they likely will do. Last year Bert wasn’t taken because of a) the ASO and RCS ban and b) we didn’t know how good he was. This year the questions are, a) how motivated is he and b) will he race the Vuelta. To me Lance will motivate him and I feel confidant in saying that he’ll be better than Lance at the Tour. But the Veulta? Hmmm.
Right.
He does that, he’s worth buying.
Valverde probably also. Every year he says he’s gonna concentrate on the Tour. Every year he comes up sort- but he always lands in the top 5 in CQ which translates into a solid 1500+ VDS points. The guy is money in the VDS bank.
durability
I like to look for guys that seem to hold up well and have the potential to get points throughout the season. Of course anyone can crash or get sick, but I steer clear of the guys that have had injury prone careers (eg Petacchi of late).
Last year I went pretty top heavy (and landed on the cusp of the luminary top 6), this year I find myself tempted by several of the 4-pointers…. decisions decisions.
Interesting stuff
Too bad I already turned mine in. That said I feel OK with what I have for my rookie season in the VDS.
My breakdown is:
1- 25 pointer & 1 pointer
2 – 18 pointers & 10 pointers
3 6s 4’s
5
9- 2’s
So it is similar to some of the mixes that worked.
Hopefully it works.
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
Woow...
1 1pointer an 9! 2 pointers? Where did you get them.. Didn’t found them to interesting and their where a few intersting 1 pointers.. Very intersting :) The 4 pointers also intersting! But I’ll see you also have plenty of them
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
I was mining 2 points for last year's misses due to injury
Or guys who are jumping teams to teams w/ more chances. MOstly it comes down to guys I know about vs guys I don’t.
BTW what did I due to end up with some of my numbers crossed out when they should have had dashes, odd.
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
Ooh.. I looked my spreadsheet over and the results are:
1: 25, 20 16, 14 pointer
2: 10, 8 pointers
5: 4, 1 pointers
7: 2 pointers
So.. I lied.. Their are enough good 2 pointers..
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
And you just hit Rule 6
don’t send your team in until the last minute. You will have an irresistible urge to discuss it with everyone else, all of whom will be doing their best not to hear because it feels too much like reading someone else’s exam paper over their shoulder.
THis is why I was only talking distrabutions instead of details
I’m numbers guy and that stuff seem relevant to the post/discussion.
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
I think you left out a couple, though
What you’ve got in your post adds up to 23 riders and 138 points, so there have to be some missing somewhere.
Google is my domestique.
Sorry majope, didn't see this.
But that’s what I was thinking too.
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
There is 25 there
Rember a couple items have more than 1 point type
1 – 25
1-1
2- 18
2 – 10
3- 6
5-4
9-2
= 25
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
Okay, I added that up and get 23.
It’s Monday here and in the worst way so I blame lack of coffee today if it’s me. Do you have five (5) 6 pointers maybe and not just 3?
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
OF course the calulater says 25 but my math say 23
SOonot sure what I’m missing so lets try this again:
1 25 1
1
2 – 18
2- 10
5- 4
5- 6 – missed 2 here
9-2
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
Defintely Moday
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
I so hear you.
And I didn’t mean to be such a pain. I just thought I was missing something.
I was curious where you were putting a majority of the riders. I keep playing with my team and I will only laugh in a month as it is truly all for little result as I like who I like. Although the playing part is coming in to the few open spots where I could go one way or another. I want guys on my team so I can add in the VDS value of even louder cheers. :-)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
It always starts that way
At first you can satisfy the cravings by talking about the numbers. Until that’s not enough and you start dropping little hints on nationality, team splits, ProTour v Pro Conti. Then maybe ages, or heights, or even initials.
Meanwhile the rest of us are here, fingers in ears, singing La La La, I can’t hear you…. oooh, I had forgotten about him getting place x in race y last year. Good pick. Now that just needs a little rearranging to make it work. Bump off a 6 pointer, choose a 4 pointer instead. Then suddenly it’s 2 am and you’ve got to be up at six.
I am not an addict. I am not an addict. I am not an addict.
This was me last week!
I was reading up on stuff here taking some notes (very minumal, more like marking initials on ideas) and I kept playing around with it. I keep laughing as I know me. I am going to end up picking the guys I like better. Thank god this isn’t a paycheck or something with serious issues if you finish in the bottom 3rd. It’s okay. Did you enjoy it and have some fun with it? Of course you did. Carry on then. :-)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Is my math bad or does that not add up?
25 riders = 150 points.
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Yes your math is bad
It adds up to 150, too.
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
Sorry about that
will take foot out of mouth at this time.
I am usually better at multi-tasking and typing at the same time. I need more caffeine.
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
It's Monday.
We blame the lack of caffeine!!! We are all good. :-)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
As the runner ip to the Laterne Rouge
I can tell you what not to do.
A) don’t get all romantic about the cobbled classics. I had the winners of Robaix and Flanders on my team, but they did little after that.
B) Doping can kill you. I lost Boonen and Petacchi to drug scandals. That was a lot of money down the tubes as well as stages and point jerseys for the GT’s.
C) Spend some time actually researching your lower $ picks. i wound up with guys that weren’t even on continental A teams, let alone PT guys.
D) Don’t pich anyone from Silence Lotto not named Cadel.
You picked Cadel?!
Only for that they have to exlude you from this year’s VDS.. What a wheelsucker is that.. With his little cutie Doggie… Bah.. I hate men with little doggies who are overprotecting them (the doggies)… But it’s all personal.. I don’t blame you.. Or… ;)
Ooh and sorry for the Cadel fans.. (haha like he have) Oops So this is gonne be my second apolagise..
So rule number 7: Don’t pick Evans.. Don’t even consider it.. Take the cool guys how really like to win and show that they want to win.. Not the guys how are gonna party if they lose a Tour.. (Sooo… it’s out)
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
No I didn't pick Cadel
I have picked Thomas Dekker twice and he never lives up to the high cost. The point I was making with Cadel is that he sucks the life out of the rest of the team, so once strong riders (like Popo) fall off the face of the earth in the standings since they get sick of his abuse and eventually lay down on him. He does score points though.
Ok.. I had to know that...
You’re smarter than that.. (It seems on your writings)
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
Sometimes my sarcasm
doesn’t translate well to print. Usually when I say Cadel’s name, I fold my chin to make it look like an ass and I whine uncontrollably..
Spot on with C
I had one guy last year who’s team never made an appearance in a VDS race. But in terms of return for cost, the one-pointers can be the best value of all. A wild card entry to a monument then 10th place just for being in the leading group gets you 100 points, a season return equivalent to a 25-pointer scoring 2500. How many VDSraces did Clement Lhotellerie ride last year? His score doesn’t appear on Chris’ spreadsheet because so-one picked him. And one-pointers don’t have to have a spectacular season to be good picks. Nicholas Roche got 180 points at the Vuelta. Did you notice? For a 25 pointer to match that in terms of value, he would need to score 4500 points.
That Hotel guy and 1 pointers
Yeah the important point in getting great value in the 1 and 2 pointers is to do your research because easily most of them will give you less than 50 points with almost all of the 1 pointers giving you exactly zero. Also many of the 1 and 2 pointers last year who scored scored in exactly one race. Thinking of Roche a thing that stands out about him is his age. Lits of potential there.
Also, L’hotellerie last year rode in 2 VDS races: paris-Nice and Crit Int; three races with this year’s Dunkirk race included. This year he’s on another Pro Cont team so his chances will be somewhat limited again. Will he ride cobbles races this year? If so which ones might fit him? How about Eneco? Those are questions that I want to know the answers for this guy.
You mean L'Hottellerie on cobbles?
That’s so gonna hurt his ace!
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
A Cadel Apology
Cadel last year scored 1690 points, which justifies coasting 25 points. One can also say that it was a down VDS year for Cadel and that he could well do better this year simply by doing what he normally does, but didn’t last year: race in 2 Grand Tours. He doesn’t have to win either GT; just place. Combine that with his post-Tour injury and his missing Lombardia and Worlds- courses that fit him last year (and this year)…
…nne can easily see him scoring 2000 points in a good year.
yeah
I picked Cadel last year and he did pretty good for me. I picked him because of his early season performance. I didn’t know much about him before that, and having him on my team made me probably more sympathetic to him than the average cycling watcher. He’s a good rider and good VDS value – although I’m a little wary of his knee this year. and who wouldn’t party after finishing the tour, wherever you finish?
I like the aspect of VDS where you get to know different riders because you are rooting for them because they are on your team. This year it’s tempting to keep lots of the same guys that did well for me (and are now more expensive) – I try to resist so I can get to know some new characters.
odds-on favorite
for a grand tour win. Assuming no one rider scores the grand tour/classics win combo, Basso should be in the top five for VDS points. If he wins the Giro.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Jan 27, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Just don't take him...
But I found it odd/strange too.. Why Lance 20 and Basso 25?
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
Lance was originally 25 points
But then the UCI announced he would not be allowed to use his custom-made Trek :
Basically....what Jens said
You can look at the prices of all the riders in a vaguely similar way that betting lines are set.
I mean to say that the prices of the riders are set by a) what chris, Jens, and I thought they might do (especially chris) tempered strongly by what other folks think. With Lance I think the opinion is that most folk here wouldn’t think of taking him at 25 points, meaning that most folks don’t think he’ll win a Grand Tour but would bite if he was priced at 20 points. We’ll se if we are correct.
Basso? Seems like there’s more buzz that he’ll win the Giro and possibly the Vuelta too. So he gets 25 points.
Here’s something fun: myself I was seriously thinking of Boonen and/or Cavendish as 25 pointers cause I think a lot of folks think that highly of them. Boonen remember was the favorite last year easily of the 25 points while Cav is highly thought of by a bunch of folks here.
In no way am I saying that any of us involved would buy any particular rider at the price they have.
Cav 25 points is too much..
First he have to learn to climb.. Boonen 25 points would be good.. If he keep his nose clear he is probably the best sprinter.. The only reason why he is not on my team is because I can’t stand the guy.. And, most of the time I watch cycling on the Belgiums, and can’t stand the fact that the commentatots always rooting for Boonen and making excuses when he doesn’t win…
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
I was surprised that Cav was 20 points
I had him on my team last year, and while he was good to watch and won a lot, he didn’t get that many VDS points in the end. Lots of those first places were only worth 40 or 50 a pot, which you can get for coming in 15th at one of the monuments.
Yeah, it's clear
that a number of riders were priced not for what they did last year, but what they might do next year (and/or priced high to keep everyone from grabbing reliable points). Even so, Cav would have to pull in an additional 400 points to justify being worth 20. That’s five more Grand Tour stages, twice as many lesser wins, or a combination of a few of each plus the Green Jersey or a win at Gent-Wevelgem.
But if he “just” pulls off another 17 wins and brings in the same number of points, that will be a dismal rate of return. I’m struggling with that, because I’d really like to have him on my team—I like the guy and will root for him either way.
Google is my domestique.
Considering...
that he won’t be doing Olympic duty, and noting how young he is (i.e. he’s improving year to year) I’d say those goals are doable.
Just to be sure..
You can make your fault undone by making an essay from 1000 words in Dutch… The title:
Why do I support Evans..
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
Or you could just be like me.
And pick people you like and accept that you won’t win, but at you’ll be pretty (and able to cheer for the people you like, instead of just the people on your fantasy team).
I learned the hard way that the only fantasy sport I can play is this one, because there are too many athletes in other sports that I just don’t like, and so if, say Arsenal sucks, then my fantasy soccer team would too.
At least this way, I have at least two riders who might win at least a few races this year.
Today, I raced à la Chavanel, and I succeeded.
Deep breaths
I had spent a bit of time everyday since the final sheet came out creating different teams from my short list of ~100 guys, then spending a day lining these teams all up, giving each rider a score on potential fro Cobbles, climby classics, sprinting, GC points, calculating the team scores ranking the teams, making adjustments to the top ten, taking out the teams with guys that I didn’t really want to follow all year when the unspeakable happened. My computer decided that it’s favourite colour was blue, and its favourite message…death. Long story short, I had to reinstall windows, wiping the hard drive. This resulted in my realizing that my priorities were totally in the wrong place. I had backed up all of my research/writing but not my music, winter training workouts or my VDS spreadsheets!!!
Let this be a lesson to all of you. Back up your VDS drafts. You can thank me later.
I have a deal with my computer
I don’t cast aspersions on its reliability by backing anything up, and it doesn’t crash on me. And those funny noises it makes are just its cute little way of saying hello.
Okay, okay—there’s a thumb drive around here somewhere. Thanks for the warning!
Google is my domestique.
Shhhh
don’t jinx it by telling your computer what you are doing. Back everything up by scribbling it on napkins with crayon.
Boy
I sure can’t wait for those Norwegian advertisers to come rolling in…
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Jan 27, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
Where would they get the money to advertise?
All they have is lots and lots of oil and natural gas. How much can that be worth?
I've been playing with my team roster,
but it’s just that, messing around with it a bit. I am finding some humor, and not in a disrespectful way, that someone like Cyclegirl is going to pick a team based solely on rears and could smoke everyone putting loads of time and efforts into picking a winning team. It’s making me smile just knowing that we are all totally just nuts when it comes to cycling to anyone outside of cycling. It all plays a part and in the end, it is what it is. :-)
Okay, I’m headed back to my roster …again. :-)
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
And a great Rear Team I have
All picked 25 riders, and i must say a great looking Team. I’m glad to be their Boss!!
We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
Did you work on getting pics to put up with your team
when we share who we all picked? I’m expecting a full roster review. ha ha!
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Good cautions
This year is supposed to work differently than last year, at least in terms of how people strategerize. You should feel like you can find a lot more value in the 4-12 point range than in the past.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris Fontecchio on Jan 26, 2009 7:22 PM EST reply actions
thanks for your advices majope
i will use them in my first VDS team for the season for sure.
I think i will choose a team that i like, maybe i should choose Valverde or Contador, but i don’t like none of both.
So you put rationality in front of your heart in your vds team? If you have to choose one rider in two, and if you know that rider who you like will win less VDS points than the other, who you choose?
I will choose who that i like, even Flecha that i know is a “loser”, i will catch him and pray for this PR, maybe is this the one. :P
I will choose only riders that i like see the winning, even if is very difficult for him. I couldn’t do in other way, i think…
Good luck for everybody.
Hey, Flecha did all right last year.
He cost 6 points and earned 490, or about 81.67 points for every point spent on him—an excellent rate of return. To put it in perspective, if you want your team to hit 10,000, each of the 150 points you spend has to earn you 66.67 points in return.
This year, Flecha’s price has gone up to 8 points. If earns the same number of points, he’ll give a return of 61.25 points for every point spent. That’s still not bad. Should everyone on your team have the same rate of return, you’d have a team worth an impressive 9187.5 points. Sometimes following your heart can be downright cost-effective.
By the way—thanks to you, one of my 1-point gambles is going to be Rui Costa.
Google is my domestique.
yeah
Flecha did some podiums last year. And Rui Costa and Paulinho will have in my VDS for sure. Even i know that Paulinho probabily will have 0 points.
thanks again.,
by semprenaroda on Jan 26, 2009 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
And Rui Costa also!
And Flecha 8 points is way to much.. Also had him previous years but 8? Much better and saver riders for that cost
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
Flecha
was on my Vuelta squad last year and I promised him a spot this year after he stole moose-man’s flag. He ’s a good, balanced bet and a sentimental choice :)
More prediction fun!
Check out what the bookies at Sky Bet think.
Contador gets the best odds to win the Tour (6/4), followed by Armstrong (7/2) and Andy Schleck (8/1). Those of you who like really, really, really long shots can pick Cavendish to win it all at 2500/1.
Sorry, Bennalytes, but they think it will be between Boonen and Cav for the green jersey (both at 7/4), with Freire behind at 3/1. They give Bennati the same odds as Hushovd: 13/2.
These are odds-on favorites to win stages: Cavendish (1/4), Contador (8/13), Cancellara (4/6), Valverde (4/6), Boonen (5/6), and Armstrong (5/6). And they’ll give you 12/1 if you want to bet that Astana will win 1-2-3 in the GC.
Right now, they’re giving Lance the nod for the Giro at 2/1, with Basso at 11/4 and Cunego at 13/2. For the Vuelta they like Contador at 15/8—even though he might not ride it—followed by SamSan at 5/1, then Anton and Basso (both 6/1), followed by Valverde and Mosquera at 7/1 before we get to last year’s 2nd-place finisher, Leipheimer, at 8/1. The guy never gets proper respect.
They like Freire for Milan-San Remo; Boonen for Flanders; Boonen or Cancellara with the same odds for Roubaix (Hincapie has the fifth-best odds at 14/1); and Cunego for Liege-Bastogne-Liege.
There. Now you know what the guys in the back room with the cigars think.
Google is my domestique.
A disgrace..
But true.. Don’t put too much pressure on that guy! We have to enjoy him like we did in the good old times when Erik Dekker was riding..
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
Great post, majope!
Especially because it made me feel like I was pretty smart….or lucky. I’ll take either.
I agree with Jens’ unofficial Rule Six -I picked my faves first, mostly second tier (12-18pt) guys and 1-2 pointers. Next I made my obligatory Kroon pick (What rule was that?) Then I filled out the rest with a little CQ research based on names that stuck with me for some reason. Some surprised and some didn’t. I guess so far that follows Rules 1-4. Then I noticed my team looked a little weak for the Giro and so I added Sella because I remembered him from climby stages and being a pro-conti guy that finished in the top 10-20: Rule 5.
-Anatole (Fromagerie Duval)
Wow, Kroon really was obligatory, wasn't he?
He was on the rosters of five of the top six teams—and two of the bottom six, for that matter. How did I miss that? And at 402 points for a 2-point investment, he was an excellent choice. Even with his new price of 6 points he’d be a solid pick—if he earns the same amount this year, that’s a return of 67 per point spent.
Okay, then, Rule 7: Pick Karsten Kroon. Thanks for the tip—may your fromage never go moldy. Unless it’s supposed to.
Note: it seems like every time I say “Five out of the top six teams,” the exception is always the same team: The Saint (DS Herman B.). No Kroon. Only 5 picks in the 10-and-over point range. Among the top teams, it also had the most riders who scored 100 or fewer points (12). The difference: it was the one team in the top ranks that had Valverde and his 2481 points. So there’s an addendum to the first rule: Rule 1A: If you do pick one of the top-scoring riders, you can pretty much ignore the other rules. The trick, of course, is picking one of the top-scoring riders…
Google is my domestique.
Only moldy
in our Blue Castello. Who will be the Karsten Kroon of ‘09, the steal that everyone finds? Haven’t Chris and Ursula said that they purposely discounted some riders? Here are the 10 most selected riders from the ’08 VDS comp, courtesy of Monty from this post:
Karsten Kroon 2 68
David Zabriskie 4 67
Brad Wiggins 2 67
Christian Vandevelde 2 64
Markus Fothen 2 59
Roger Hammond 2 53
Juan Antonio Flecha 6 52
Jason McCartney 2 49
Yaroslav Popovych 8 48
Oscar Pereiro Sio 2
Proving that going with the crowd is not a bad strategy.
Six of these guys were worth the price; the other four weren’t. If you’d purchased all of them for 32 points, though, your total return would have been 2071 points, a comfortable 64.72 per point spent. If all your riders returned at that rate, you’d have a team worth about 9708 points.
Karsten Kroon 2 68: earned 402 pts, 201 per point spent (henceforth pps)
David Zabriskie 4 67: earned 271, 67.75 pps
Brad Wiggins 2 67: earned 27, 13.5 pps
Christian Vandevelde 2 64: 366, 183 pps
Markus Fothen 2 59: 205, 105.5 pps
Roger Hammond 2 53: 70, 35 pps
Juan Antonio Flecha 6 52: 490, 81.67 pps
Jason McCartney 2 49: 10, 5 pps
Yaroslav Popovych 8 48: 230, 28.75
Oscar Pereiro Sio 2: 0, 0 pps
Google is my domestique.
So if they duplicated their scores this year with their new costs, you'd get
Karsten Kroon 6 68: earned 402 pts, 67 per point spent (henceforth pps)
David Zabriskie 6 67: earned 271, 45.17 pps
Brad Wiggins 4 67: earned 27, 6.75 pps
Christian Vandevelde 8 64: 366, 45.75 pps
Markus Fothen 4 59: 205, 51.25 pps
Roger Hammond 2 53: 70, 35 pps
Juan Antonio Flecha 8 52: 490, 61.25 pps
Jason McCartney 2 49: 10, 5 pps
Yaroslav Popovych 4 48: 230, 57.5 pps
Oscar Pereiro Sio 2: 0, 0 pps
Three of these riders did not change in cost this year from last.
Yeah, not such a good deal this year for the lot.
At the new cost of 46 points, if they returned the same number of points you’d get an average of only 45 pps . If your whole roster did similarly, you’d end up with a 6750-point team.
To break 10,000 points, you need an average return of 66.67 pps. If they all earn the same amount as last year, only Kroon would put you on track for a top team. But they could do much better…or much worse. If everything were certain, there’d be no shouting at the TV, and where’s the fun then?
For those who don’t have a calculator handy, here are the average returns you’d need to reach various point goals:
9,000 points: 60 pps
8,000 points: 53.33 pps
7,000: 46.67 pps
6,000: 40 pps
If your goal is to fall below the Snakeboat line (5000 points), your average return can’t be more than 33.33 pps.
Incidentally, my current roster last year earned a rather unimpressive 6605 points. I obviously think they’ll do considerably better this year—on the whole, they’re a young bunch and should still be improving. I also tried putting together a team of the highest-scorers in each points category, but my gut tells me that several of them probably hit their highs last year—and others I just don’t care enough about to root for. Can’t decide if I’m an optimist or an idiot—possibly a little of both.
Google is my domestique.
On the other hand...
This is fun.
But looking at that list of riders some mitigating circumstances come up that make them at least somewhat likely that they’ll exceed their 08 point total:
- Vandevelde and Zabriskie are now on a pro tour team so they’ll probably race more VDS races.
- Wiggins doesn’t have the Olympics distraction or the Cavendish rivalry.
- Zabriskie and Pereiro will race more IF they don’t get hurt again.
- Popo is back in his comfort zone with Astana.
- Hammond might not be on such a tight leash since he doesn’t have to teach Cav the sprinting ropes now.
- Vandevelde goes into the season knowing that he’s a protected rider.
Now one may disagree with some of this logic but all of it I’ll bet will be used by some VDS players for the riders here.
It is fun. Too much fun, damn you.
I’ve spent far too much time on this already, and there’s still almost a month to reconsider. And re-reconsider. Trouble is, there are so many riders who might improve this year because of x and y and z—but they can’t all improve, because there are only so many points available—for every rider who goes up, another goes down.
At some point I’m just going to call the team finished and hope for the best. But at this point, there’s still some agonizing to go.
Google is my domestique.
We should be careful
If we will keep discussing VDS strategy for the next month in the end everybody will end up with the same team. Little fun to be had then I guess.
HaHa I'm sure no-one will have my Team.
We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
My greatest fear
is that after endless hours of analysis of past results and weighing factors to predict this year’s performances, I’ll end up with exactly the same team as CycleGirl. Or worse—the same except for one or two of her ass-men, who end up pulling in more points than my careful picks.
I may be the only one here, though, who has already designed their VDS team’s kit.
Google is my domestique.
I might need to read the regulations again
but I think they’re going to get fined for that.
Google is my domestique.
That is an image on a bike I really did not want.
"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."
Ok Dumb Question
I’ve got my Team – Sweet Rears is the name at the moment.
Where you have DS – do we have to pick a DS from the Pro Teams is that myself. reason i’m asking is they then ask for PdC username.. First time playing so just want to make sure..
Thanks.. Now yoou can all laugh..
Thanks.. Now yoou can all laugh..and BTW you don’t know how hard it was to pick a team just by rears, i had to actually put some thought..and pick a few not just for there ass.
We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
Hiya! There is no rule for that; you can put down whomever you want.
Most everyone in the past just puts their own name. But a few have been creative, if I remember correctly. You are free to do whatever you want!
"It's official. For the next four years, it will be pronounced 'nuclear' " --Seth Meyers
Thanks Ruthann
I’ll make a name up i think hehe could be fun
We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
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