The Kids Are Alright: Looking At This Year's U-25's
by ursula on Jan 31, 2009 9:13 PM EST
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via robertpatrickyoungblood.files.wordpress.com
Look here for last year's story. First off, let's get to the list. Afterwards let's have some fun with it. The list below I took from this year's VDS pricelist and it contains all of the riders, below the age of 25 as of Het Volk Ghent-Ghent, who are priced this year at four points or more. After their name is their age, the VDS price, and their VDS score last year. That's 19 21 riders, only four fewer riders than Chris listed last year, and these 20 riders aren't just future hopes. These guys are already good- and theyll be joined by more than a couple new guys this year.
Mark Cavendish 23 20 913
Andy Schleck 23 16 800
Robert Gesink 22 16 1077
Thomas Lovkvist 24 14 865
Greg Van Avermaet 23 14 785
Thomas Dekker 24 12 675
Roman Kreuziger 22 12 716
Gerald Ciolek 22 10 240
Rigoberto Uran 22 10 480
Matti Breschel 24 8 427
Vincenzo Nibali 24 6 399
Edvald Boasson Hagen 21 6 40
JJ Rojas 23 6 310
Bauke Mollema 22 4 60
Chris Anker Sorensen 24 4 190
Morris Possoni 24 4 327
Nicholas Roche 24 4 180
Romain Felliu 24 4 225
Sebastian Langeveld 4 165
Tyler Farrar 24 4 150
Wouter Weylandt 24 4 290
So in looking at this list I'm deciding to have some fun with it. Could one make a U-25 VDS team that 's competitive? Results are on the flip...
How's this for a team of 25 U-25's (name, VDS cost, VDS points earned last year). These guys below scored, what at least 7368 points last year and if you think they will score more this year then give yourself an A+. (I say "at least" because they actually scored more. Now who did the extra scoring... you can find out.)
Mark Cavendish 20 913
Andy Schleck 16 800
Robert Gesink 16 1077
Thomas Lovkvist 14 865
Thomas Dekker 12 675
Matti Breschel 8 427
Vincenzo Nibali 6 399
Edvald Boasson Hagen 6 40
JJ Rojas 6 310
Nicholas Roche 4 180
Bauke Mollema 4 60
Chris Anker Sorensen 4 190
Morris Possoni 4 327
Romain Felliu 4 225
Sebastian Langeveld 4 165
Tyler Farrar 4 150
Wouter Weylandt 4 290
Simon Spilak 2 185
Peter Velits 2 50
Jurgen Roelandts 2 70
Kenny Dehaes 2 140
Craig Lewis 2 90
Gianni Meersman 2 50
Mauro Finetto 1
Tom Stansnijder 1
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double checking
the spreadsheet I have has A Schleck and Gesink at 16, not 18. No offense but I really hope you’re wrong and not me. I was finally happy with my team…
Possoni?
Is that the Italien time-trialer? Can’t get his picture..
Ooh and I got 7! riders from the list..
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
climber :-)
if you search him here, there’s a profile thingy from last season. rides for columbia-high road.
How old is Maaskant btw?
He’s always older than I yhough but over 25?
Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.
He is 25 years old, born in July, 1983
"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt
Lövkvist turns 25 in April
- He is still eligable to compete for the White jersey in th Tour.
- He has already started in , and completed, 4 times in the TdF.
I’m just saying, how freaking impressive is that?
Unfortunately there is no real positive trend in his GC performances at the Tour. He was however the highest scoring rider in the VDS short stageraces in 2008 and that’s not all that bad. (Especially as he accomplished this with the sword of Damocles hanging over his head , being on Drew’s “Way of the Cross”-team)
Lovkvist is surprisingly impressive
Seems to always fly under my radar. So your analysis of him brings up the question of his future. I tend to go with the assumption that many riders, when they are real young could go in several different directions. For instance I just read the Velo news interview with Boonen where Tom was comparing himself with Cancellara, a guy he’s raced against since juniors. The way Boonen describes it both of them could have taken the other’s career path: Fabian more towards sprinting, Tom towards chronos. I can buy that.
I’m not saying all gifted riders could be anything along the sprinter to mountain goat spectrum but they all do make choices. So Jens, about Lovkvist- he’s 24, mostly set in his ways though there’s some wiggle room. Where could he end up when all is done and he’s retired? better yet, what other paths could he have taken with success?
Good question
I think he has taken the right path and perhaps the only one. His sprinting-ability has always been lacking, otherwise I suppose he could have used his big engine and decent climbing as an Ardennes-specialist. His main strength is the TT so he could have loaded up on muscle and become a TT guy like Cance, Bodrogi or Grabsch.
Initially though ,he gained recognition for his durability. In his first Tour he caught every DS eye because he actually performed better in the 3:rd week TT than in the first week. At age 21! Hence the rep as a major GT -talent grew.
I suppose we’ve all come to the conclusion that he’s more of a one week than a three week guy by now but I’m personally not convinced it is a correct assumption. The common view is that he can’’t hold it together for three weeks and should focus on the shorter stageraces. I have a different view. His main problem isn’t recovery, it’s the HC-mountains. Cat 2 and Cat 1 climb he can hang on in and those are the ones mainly used in the shorter races. It’s the big stages with one or more HC climbs that put him out of contention.
If there was a three week Tour with no climbs harder than Cat 1 (in TdF-terms) I think we would have seen him in the Top 10 or Top 3 by now but alas, no such creature exists.
Although I think he made a wise choice in Columbia but I would have been interested too see what Bjarne could have done for him. Riis has a great understanding and a very practical and crass view on power to weight ratio and I think this is the key factor if Lövkvist is to take the BIG step.
I’m personally very interested how he will do in some of the one-day-races this year. He did well in MSR and Eroica last year and he has said he looks forward to L-B-L (which he calls one of his favourite races) this year. Perhaps with a greater confidence he can be more competitive? Hard to see him winning these races though as he lacks the final powerful weapon (sprint or escape-acceleration)
Lovkvist etc.
First, all three are on my list. Lovkvist is at 14 points; the other two at 2 points. You Norwegians… ;)
Back to Thomas and I’m glad you brought up teams, Jens cause I see that as a big factor. First, take Boonen who’s just happy to do the same thing every year. Nothing at all wrong with that; he professes its interesting to do and he’s on a team that aligns with his goals. He picked QS for a reason and he’s gotten what he was looking for.
Then take Cancellara and judging from what Fabian has said this winter I have to believe that Fabian is not only intrigued about changing his game but he does believe that he could be a stage race winner, even a Grand Tour winner, and I have to lay that belief at the feet of Bjarne. Last year I was a little surprised to see Cancellara hump it over Mt Hamilton and Sierra Road on that stage in California, trying to chase down Gesink/Levi, but then we saw him at the Tour doing such great work for his team over those HC climbs. I expect more of the same and some surprise results for Cancellara the rest of his career because of the great coaching he’s getting.
Which gets us to Lovkvist and Columbia, a team that since the breakup of the T-Mob of the Ullrich/Vino/Kloden etc. era has not had true Grand Tour GC aspirations and I wonder if they actually know how to coach a serious GT threat anymore. That in turn makes winning week long stage races dicey because, IMO these days its much easier to go from Grand Tour winner/serious threat to week long stage race winner than vice versa. Kirchen seems to have stalled out on his GT abilities. By my thinking Gerdemann, still with GT aspirations, was right to leave Columbia.
And as Kirchen goes so goes Lovkvist. Its the Columbia way. That sounds like a condemnation and it is but realize I’m not talking about the great things Columbia does do, things that Riis doesn’t seem so interested in. Its damn near impossible for a team/DS to push hard in every cycling discipline. Columbia gets A+ for their sprinting and stage hunting. Anyways with Lovkvist I wonder if a change in team is what he should be thinking of.
I could well be full of it I know with this thinking. But lets throw in another guy, Valverde, and his endless quest for GT podium places. His aiming high I think, makes it easier to win races like LBL or Dauphine. I’m not saying it well because obviously Kirchen tries hard to do well at the Tour too but with Valverde there’s a belief instilled by Unzue that reminds me of what Cancellara is saying lately and that’s another level than what Kirchen does. Its really hard to truly coach up an athlete to do something his natural abilities don’t align with. It takes a great coach to do so because #1 they have to get the athlete to believe that he can change. Bjarne I think can do that. Unzue is doing the same with Valverde.
I’ll throw one other Riis rider into this- Andy Schleck. We fans I think get frustrated that Riis never allowed Andy to follow up on his breakout Giro of a couple years ago. But what I’m seeing now is Riis’ meticulous coaching of Andy to be as good as Contador at least. The aim for Andy is to be the best at any Grand Tour, and trickling down from that, at other races. Andy is drinking that kool-aid by the liter. And he should as Contador would beat him every time if Andy had taken the easier route and been satisfied with a Giro win against a diluted field. (Diluted as opposed to a Tour field.) Andy already has the talent to win a GT, as long as he picks a GT that doesn’t have too strong a field.
Rather long comment but I like it,
and I don’t think you are full of it at all, I for one agree with it. I don’t know the numbers at all, but as far as Kirchen and Valverde, I think Valverde has a better strength to weight ratio for climbing. And Andy I think will win a GT that has a few less TT kilometers. I’m torn in picking my top guy for the VDS. Valverde says he’s focusing on the TDF (as is Contador), Cancellara (my favorite strong man) is transitioning supposedly, Basso is a question mark besides being out of the tour, personally don’t care about Cadel, and I don’t think Rebellin is going to have another year like last year. I like the idea of just picking the guys you want to chear for, but I have a little competitive streak.
Oh I’m sure their might be plenty of advice out their for me, but save it, I’ll eventually decide. Hell I might try the route of spreading the points around on a couple of lower guys.
Anyway, keep blabbing ursula, I like the thoughts and information.
He actually held my team back
Might be time to look for a good Norwegian………………
"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."
Tom Boonen
Snow's starting Dude...........
"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."
Tom Boonen
Will Dekker prove to be as clean this year as Ricco was last year?
But seriously folks, is there anyone else on this list that could be as comparable to Ricco considering that there were so many red flags raised last year.
(Please read this comment as, "Hey, I picked him for my team because he’s a bargain at 12 pts. considering his results in his shortened season last year. And I don’t want to share his points/success with anybody. ;-) )
Speed on the descent can easily be lost when you slam into a tree.
Thanks for the team template Ursula!
Speed on the descent can easily be lost when you slam into a tree.
Huub Duyn
No points last year, but only costs 1 point and was Best Young Rider today in Qatar.
Google is my domestique.
O-32 VDS team
These guys together scored 8630 VDS points last year:
Name, age, VDS cost, VDS points last year
Leipheimer 35, 18, 1520
Sastre 34, 18, 975
Di Luca 33, 12, 540
McEwen 37, 12, 675
Arvesen, 34, 10, 605
Kloden, 33, 8, 557
Hincapie, 35, 8, 445
Jens!, 37, 6, 260
O’Grady, 35, 6, 315
Kroon, 33, 6, 402
Petacchi, 35, 4, 105
Grabsch, 33, 4, 305
Horner, 37, 4, 175
Dessel, 34, 4, 296
Simoni, 37, 4, 270
Backstedt, 34, 4, 66
Zberg, 34, 4, 135
Garzelli, 35, 4, 150
De Jongh, 35, 4, 295
Noe, 40, 2, 74
Lastras, 33, 2, 80
Aerts, 34, 2, 90
Caucchioli, 33, 2, 125
Tosatto, 34, 2, 50
Ivanov, 33, 2, 120
Team 27.62
Ursula—don’t you remember your own work? Your diligent number-crunching proved, once and for all, that the peak age for a cyclist is 27.62 years old. So it’s clear that the finest possible team must be made up of riders who will reach that magic age sometime this season.
To do so, they would have to be born between about June 1981 and March 1982. Can one put together a VDS team of guys born between those dates?
Yes. One can. In fact, on the UCI Pro Tour roster, I found exactly 25 riders who both meet that requirement and are on the VDS list (the numbers after birth dates are this year’s cost and points earned last year):
CUNEGO Damiano ITA 19.09.1981 20 1395
POZZATO Filippo ITA 10.09.1981 14 766
GASPAROTTO Enrico ITA 22.03.1982 8 513
LORENZETTO Mirco ITA 13.07.1981 4 275
EFIMKIN Vladimir RUS 02.12.1981 4 240
FOTHEN Markus GER 09.09.1981 4 205
FERNANDEZ Koldo ESP 13.09.1981 4 190
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel ESP 05.09.1981 2 152
VAUGRENARD Benoît FRA 05.01.1982 2 140
BRUTT Pavel RUS 29.01.1982 2 80
FRISCHKORN William USA 10.06.1981 2 50
EFIMKIN Alexander RUS 02.12.1981 2 45
VAITKUS Tomas LTU 04.02.1982 2 10
ROSSELER Sébastien BEL 15.07.1981 2 0
SPRICK Matthieu FRA 29.09.1981 2 0
LOSADA ALGUACIL Alberto ESP 28.02.1982 1 7
HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus ESP 28.09.1981 1 0
BENITEZ ROMAN Jose Alberto ESP 14.11.1981 1 0
DEL NERO MONTES Jesus ESP 16.03.1982 1 0
DEKKERS Hans NED 07.08.1981 1 0
PATOUR Kilian FRA 20.09.1982 1 0
VANDBORG Brian DEN 04.12.1981 1 0
HOVELYNCK Kurt BEL 02.06.1981 1 0
DOCKX Bart BEL 02.09.1981 1 0
REYNES MIMO Vicente ESP 30.07.1981 1 0
You might note that their total cost is only 84 points. If you have great faith in people who, statistically speaking, will be unable to peak this year, you might replace some of the 1-pointers with more expensive guys who are older or younger, even if they won’t be at their best. Of course, you do so at your own risk. And the rule is that you have to spend no more than 150 points—nothing says you can’t take this dream team in its entirety.
These guys earned 4068 last year—not terribly impressive, until you stop and realize that they hadn’t peaked yet, so couldn’t possibly be earning their maximum number of points. So—go for it! Team 27.62 will rule VDS—it’s a statistical sure thing.
Google is my domestique.
Why don't you enroll the U-25 team?
For fun and as a benchmark. The 32+ team could join too. And why not make a few national squads (are there 25 Dutchies in the list?).
Here in Holland
We eat Swedes for breakfast!
Err…or is that stuff called cornflakes? Anyway, maybe you can put all rivalries aside and form a Scandinavian squad?
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