The worst case scenario

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 12:01 PM EST

I think the greatest fear a cyclist can have is going into a left hand turn on a steep mountain decent and realizing you're either going too fast or there is just not enough room for everyone and your the last man on the outside, slowly being channeled toward that outside edge and the chasm below. A few other terrible fan fears would be 'our' riders getting hurt, our team not getting an invite to the big race, someone giving Ricco a microphone, clowns, Johan Bruyneel, and crossing a stage next to Bernard Hinault without the appropriate credentials.

So here is my big fear, what happens if the Tour does not invite Astana to the 2010 TDF. The reason, of course, would be because of Alexander Vinokorov. It has certainly been their policy to exclude teams that have riders that have had doping issues in the past and Vino, not only had doping issues but he retired, and received only a one year suspension from the Kazak federation, and then looked like he was going to come back too early, caused some serious controversy at Astana, and may actually be running the entire nation of Kazakhstan.

Can you imagine the terrible worldwide injustice if Alberto Contador, the best grand stage racer in the world, was, again, not allowed to defend his title. His streak of Grand tours would be interupted causing him to win fewer TDFs over his career and making our future 'greatest' ever comparisons more and more difficult.

And if you thought that was scarry what if Andy has a bad and Lance is closer to his old self and we have an eighth tour victory for Mr. Armstrong. What a tragic missed opportunity that would be ... either to see Alberto crush the old man or for Lance to battle him until the last day and really give history something to remember.

So my questions is what should the cycling community do to prevent such a crime. ?

Wouldn't it be great if we had real pro tour with a solid cycling union that could prevent that from happening ?

I think that was one of the reasons for starting the Pro Tour, to make sure that all the big teams were always invited and politics and capriciousness would not exclude great riders from joining the battle.

Wouldn't it be great of Schleck, Menchov, Sastre, Armstrong, Cavendish, Wiggins, Cancellara and all the big names got together and some how could prevent such a tragedy from happening. !

So again, what can the cycling community do to prevent such a crime. ?

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Get a TdF guarantee for AC in his Astana contract

Oh , wait. He already did. Problem solved.

by Jens on Nov 28, 2009 12:46 PM EST reply actions

seriously

That plan is as dead as a dodo. Raceorganizers won’t compromise at all and the riders clearly aren’t up to organizing themselves worth a squat. So neither of the two elements you ask for are even a tiny bit likely to be realized.

That’s the wisdom I draw from these last three years anyway.

by Jens on Nov 28, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions

ACs contract is with Astana not the TDF

What happens if it looks like the ASO is going to give them the invite and then at the last minute ( really meaning month not minute ) a rumor starts and then its looks like their not, then they are and then they are not.

Maybe AC could change teams at the last minute but to sign a new contract with a new team, find the money to pay him (!) and not ruffle the feathers of that teams stars might not be so easy … and then we might have the worst case scenario.

I waited a half an hour to give my two toddlers breakfast until I had my Eneco tour coverage sorted, then made sure I got them fed before the sprint. --- Bought With Blood. ..... Hmmm, my kinda people. If only they could explain to my wife why my bike belongs in the house and not the garage. --- Thevaro

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

And you are right my elements are unlikely

but that is what I am lamenting and hoping the riders could work to take more control over their lives.

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

ACs contract is with Astana not the TDF

What happens if it looks like the ASO is going to give them the invite and then at the last minute a rumor starts and then its looks like their not.

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions

oops - I hit post again.

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

My AU$0.02...

Having recently experienced concern about matters generally related to this subject, I’m afraid that I am all out of ‘give a #*^@’. (of course, it helps that what I consider to potentially be a much bigger crime, has now been averted…).

I have quite enough sources of fear and worry, much closer to home. No shortage there, LOL. So… I shall endeavour to ensure that my greatest cycling-related worry will be the fear of power outages occurring during the coverage of major races ;-).

(Besides, the Accountant has the money to get himself some competent advisors. Whether or not he does that… well, it ain’t my concern ;-)…)

by Lou... on Nov 28, 2009 3:17 PM EST reply actions

Brother Fran ?

I’m not sure he is as good an adviser as he is, a relative, fortunate enough to have a cycling a brother that is a damn good millionaire cyclist. I expect all will work out but there is that slim chance that fate will frown against our Contador, Armstrong, Schleck smack down.

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

AU$.02

that’s like half a penny, right? :)

"Harder! Better! Faster! Stronger!" Philippe Gilbert

by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2009 8:25 AM EST up reply actions

1.8132 US cents

but pretty close to a penny in the Old Country.

They still had ha’penny coins until not so long ago.

by Drongo on Nov 29, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah?! Bugger me!

I haven’t paid attention to the exchange rate in a very long time… why did no-one tell me it was time to go shopping?! Holy crap… and now that I look at the recent historical data, why did they not tell me a fortnight ago?! Hmm, now is pretty damn good, mind… and Drongo, I thank you ;-)

by Lou... on Nov 30, 2009 2:04 AM EST up reply actions

Sui Juris complaining about the exchange rate should have been a hint...

"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'

by Seahorse on Nov 30, 2009 3:32 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, but...

… somehow Sui having a whinge didn’t translate to: “Lou, your mailbox is hungry for packages full of small shiny objects from foreign shores. Get busy with the magic card now!”. I can be slow on the uptake at times…

by Lou... on Nov 30, 2009 3:46 AM EST up reply actions

I love an Amazon blowout!

"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'

by Seahorse on Nov 30, 2009 3:54 AM EST up reply actions

No way ASO bans him from racing

they know how much money they can make off of the Lance vs. Bert “rivalry”, especially now that they are on separate teams. It is all about the $$$$$$$ after all.

Look, it's a bird...no, it's a plane....oh never mind it's just fucking balloon boy

by Phil H. on Nov 28, 2009 3:41 PM EST reply actions

Actually, I'm certain that there are two camps in France,

one that is mortally wounded by doping and the possibility that an American could have won their(!) race 7 times in a row and another camp that wants to grow the sport and make money.

If the zealots gain control I wouldn’t doubt that they would fight tooth and nail to keep Astana out of the Tour. I don’t think the zealots are in control as cooler heads appear to be prevailing but I fear they lurk just beneath the surface. Another Astana ‘incident’ could flip the balance of power.

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

(perhaps a little ticked by the implications of your language)

So . . . to be concerned about doping’s prevalence in cycling is to be a zealot?

And to not care so long as one can “grow the sport and make money” is to have a “cool head”?

Does that mean that one can not be a profit-whoring zealot as well?

by R Mc on Nov 29, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I didn't like the way I put it either.

Yes there can be and definitely are profit-whoring zealots.

My big issue with the last few years is that I thought the anti-doping faction was causing entire teams to fail and taking down the innocent with the guilty. Certainly the win at all cost criminals have had a huge negative impact on the sport …. but in relation to this post I was only making the case that there were those who would take drastic actions, excluding teams and riders if they believed that the reputation of the TDF could be tarnished or in many cases, simply to prove they had the power to do so …. and those persons are not driven by the $$$$$ that Phil mentions at the top of this thread.

by thevaro on Nov 29, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

fair enough:

I assume fairly strongly that ASO has every reason to have an Inspector Reynard attitude, (or, an NFL attitude towards head injuries): i.e. produce the appearance of doing something without necessarily doing anything to affect the reality.

We may disagree with our assessments of the prevalence of systematic doping within teams—with or without the knowledge and consent of the management, I’m thinking.. Hans-Michael Holczer is perhaps one of the biggest Sergeant Schulzes (pardon the Hogan’s Heroes ref, folks) in mordern sports, or a hypocrite of epic proportions. Whatever the case, it certainly is an EEN-teresting coincidence that 3 of the major blood-doping busts of recent years happened on his watch. Rudy Pevenage and Walter Godefroot? Hmmm . . . .

Anyway . . . as for taking down entire teams . . . well . . . so be it. I’ve long argued that the contracting agents for the teams should be banned along with the riders (and maybe even more so than the riders) for any positives that occur within riders under contract to them. Somehow I think you’d find more aggressive anti-doping policies that way . . .

Or, we’d find out that the racing we expect simply can’t be done ‘clean.’

Thanks for the response—I was in a hurry and brusquer than I should have been.

by R Mc on Nov 29, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

Fair enough

by thevaro on Nov 29, 2009 8:58 PM EST up reply actions

I'm just thankful that we aren't seeing Bert's boner in that picture.

by ursula on Nov 28, 2009 6:06 PM EST reply actions

?????

me too !

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not convinced that a strong riders' union would solve this particular situation.

I’m doubtful that (imo) clean riders like Sastre, Cav, and Wiggins would band together to protect Vinokourov’s right to race with Astana. That’s really what you’re talking about, after all. In your scenario, Astana and Contador would be admitted into the Tour if Astana dumped Vino.

For that matter, I’m not convinced that the likes of Schleck, Menchov and Armstrong (!) would band together to prevent the “tragedy” of their likely trouncing by Contador in the 2010 Tour.

by Susie Hartigan on Nov 28, 2009 6:12 PM EST reply actions

I wouldn't expect them to band together to protect Vino,

but AC having been left out once before and he being the #1 stage racer on the planet, I would hope might provoke all the big riders to band together. I don’t think it will happen either but I think they should. They are the one’s risking their lives. They should have a bigger say as to what happens in their sport. …. and I would hope Lance, having won 7 times already would want to race against the best , to show that he could, at least, hang with King Contador. ( given last year’s events )

( You are right that if Astana promised to not race Vino, that would solve the issue but it seems to me that Vino has far more control of his team than any other rider ever has in cycling history. This post was intended to be a very hypothetical exercise )

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

Uuh.. You remember Lance?

What do you fear most?
1. coup d’etat
2. putsch

by Frinking on Nov 29, 2009 5:13 AM EST up reply actions

Given this years war of words

You don’t think Lance would want to race against AC ?

by thevaro on Nov 29, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

I was reacting on this:

but it seems to me that Vino has far more control of his team than any other rider ever has in cycling history

What do you fear most?
1. coup d’etat
2. putsch

by Frinking on Nov 29, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

ooohhhhh,

Still though, Vino really does appear to have huge pull with the cycling federation, the major corporations and the the government of Kazakhstan. I think that trumps Lance pretty easily.

by thevaro on Nov 29, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

That's true..

But hey. He invented the team. Talked with the federation etc. But you’re right.. Maybe it’s to much but I like it..

What do you fear most?
1. coup d’etat
2. putsch

by Frinking on Nov 30, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

"too much"? No...

… it’s just a different concept of what a team is, how it works, and why…

It’s a concept that a whole lot of people have trouble getting their heads around, LOL. Like with the rumours floating around recently about the team changing it’s name. That struck me as being highly unlikely… it’s an idea based on the traditional concept of a commercial ‘trade team’, and Astana is not a traditional commercial ‘trade team’ (BTW, Proskurin has said that the name won’t be changing).

Heh, yeah, a lot of people have made incorrect assumptions about Astana, based on an incorrect concept of what the team is (I’m lookin’ at you, JB).

I like it, too. (Yep, I can imagine your surprise…)

by Lou... on Nov 30, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Seriously

The scenario you describe would raise my personal level of schadenfreude to an all time high.

Tickets are bought, Belgium here I come!

by jsallee00 on Nov 28, 2009 6:16 PM EST reply actions

We Cuban-Spaniard-Americans

Do not know what schadenfreude is.

I’m scarred to guess. ???

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

German word, no such related word in English and thus schadenfreude is commonly used by English speakers

it’s a great word really, schaden means damage, and freude means happiness or joy. Pretty much it’s the enjoyment of others pain or hardships. So for instance if you are excited when a cyclist cracks because your favorite rider will gain time, it could be considered schadenfreude.

Look, it's a bird...no, it's a plane....oh never mind it's just fucking balloon boy

by Phil H. on Nov 28, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions

Hmmmm, never would have guessed.

I’ll put that too good use next time Ricardo Ricco is in a race.

by thevaro on Nov 28, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

the classic example

of schadenfreude is simply to laugh like a hyena when you see someone falling on his arse.

Doesn’t translate to cycling so well, of course, since any crash is to be regretted, not enjoyed. Anyone who delighted when when Jens! did a face-plant or when Schleck went over the rail… is a strange puppy.

by Drongo on Nov 29, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions

Hmm, I dunno.

I would think classic schadenfreude would be if you are excited when a cyclist cracks even though your own favorite gains nothing by it. In other words, you are excited not because you are gaining something, but simply because someone else is losing something.

Could be wrong, no doubt there are all different subtypes of schadenfreude.

by tgartner on Nov 30, 2009 2:23 AM EST up reply actions

sono tranquillo

I am reasonably certain this has already been thought of and discussed. Vino will be treated by ASO individually. Astana will get an invite, either no strings attached or with orders to leave Vino home. Frankly, I don’t care, he’ll be poked like a pin cushion and will lose 20’ on the first major mountain.

"Harder! Better! Faster! Stronger!" Philippe Gilbert

by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2009 8:27 AM EST reply actions

+1

by rbjhan on Nov 29, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions

And when he does, you can bet

the TV-moto won’t accomodate him by leaving him to suffer in private like they did at the Vuelta.

by Jens on Nov 29, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions

OK

I vote he gets in. This will be priceless.

"Harder! Better! Faster! Stronger!" Philippe Gilbert

by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions

+2

by thevaro on Nov 29, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions

BTW

thanks for this diary. I had completely forgotten how ugly those Discovery kits were.

"Harder! Better! Faster! Stronger!" Philippe Gilbert

by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2009 9:54 AM EST reply actions

the blueish ones (not the green above)

is one of my fav kits

- you and I are so consistently kit incompatible – I hope someone else is doing the PdC kit ;-)))

Moo

by Willj on Nov 29, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

+1

If you drill a hole through the centre of the earth, on the oppposite side you will find a person with the exact opposite of your own taste in cycling kits. For me that person is Chris (aka The Green Lantern, I’m told).

Save us Jebus! (or Veloki?)
Of course, one of the perks of running your own site is the right to ignore the whining of beccoslayers and cowfetishists.

by Jens on Nov 29, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions