I swing wildly just like you. Raceday I am usually OK (by my standards, coughcough), but other rides are utterly unpredictable. Sleep issues, food, soreness, concentration. Actually, in that order. Sleep is a big issue for me, not as a functioning person, but I definitely don’t get enough to max out my wattage every day.

I commute a few days a week, do some local group rides, and I have started doing some racing. Some days I’m flying and others I keep looking at my brakes to see if they are rubbing.

Some days I am slow in the morning and flying in the afternoon. Other days its the opposite. For the most part, I just tell myself to keep turning the pedals.

While there are days that I have obligations that prevent me from commuting to work and others where I have to force myself to get on the bike, I don’t think I have ever regretted a ride. When I get to commute to work, I am always in a better mood when I arrive not matter my motivation at the beginning.

The strangest my bike ever felt was when I didn’t ride for a week or so. Getting back on the bike felt very different – the pedals, the bars, the height of the saddle, my cadence. While things feel strange from time to time (and I might feel slow) – the enjoyment of the ride takes over before long.

But strangely it seems to make very little difference to how fast I go on the circuit I regularly time myself on

Pretty much all endurance sports are like this – There are many variables that go into a good performance and some of them are easier to control than others. Over time with experience, you become better at dialing these things in. This is partly why many times it’s older, more experienced riders who win the major classics – they have had the time to figure out the variables. It’s also easier to do this if you don’t have distractions – if you aren’t riding around a full-time job or family responsibilities. That is, you have more control over your environment and life if you are riding full time.

You’re right that the unpredictability certainly has a connection with doping. Doping makes it possible for a rider to call his shots with considerably more accuracy than doing it naturally. For me, watching races, a rider who misses his peak – basically, is good at the wrong time – that may be a clue that he or she is trying to race clean. When you add money to the equation, yes, there is an incentive to buy insurance – to make certain that a rider has the best possible legs on the day. This is why cultural changes within the teams are as important – if not more so – than doping controls and punishment. There needs to be a more forgiving atmosphere toward the unpredictability and human aspects of the sport within the team.

Are you sure the wind didn’t have something to do with that?

…I do long distance rides, like 200k, or 300k or 600k, all in one go.

Given that some of these rides last over 24 hours, it’s hardly a surprise that energy levels come and go. I usually can’t correlate them very strongly with likely possible factors such as nutrition or whether I’ve been going hard or easy for the last few hours.

So, when my energy is lower, I do a self-check to convince myself that I’ve been getting enough calories, and then just click it down a gear or two and ease up on the pace. Fighting it just makes it worse.

At some point — often sooner than I’d expect — energy comes back and I feel better again. The trick then is to not overdo it. ;)

-Greg

When I trained more randomly I used to experience the same things that you are describing. But 1 year ago I decided that since I didn’t have too much time to train because of job, family etccc, I needed to train smartly since I still wanted to do well on the races I compete, which are usually this massive type of races (Challenges, Ciclotourism etc…, 12Hhs of MTB etc) Parenthesis: last time I tried to compete in a race valid for the Chilean Ranking I couldnt keep up with the panamerican champion that won it hehehehe.
Anyway, I started to do 12 weeks program. So I can basically do 2 cycles, rest for 2 weeks during the winter, another 2 cycles and rest for 2 weeks during Xmas. It is a very simple program where you basic need to spend a certain amount of time on given heart rates by week. It has the perioditization built in so you grow from a base until you reach maximum time and intensity and then the classic 2 weeks tapering. I also started to do more of the same loops and time some climbs or circuits.
And guess what, now I am in the 5th cycle and by eliminating some of the variables I got much much better on predicting how I am going to do. I learned how to split my intense and easy rides, sleep better and eat better and of course the importance of discipline and I surprised myself a couple of times this year in the races.
I am pretty sure that a lot of you guys train more serious than me, but I wanted to share this anyway, for me it was a big aha! And by the way I understand much more of what is going on during the season. What I still couldnt figure out is how to use a race for training, all the times I tried I forced too much and this was bad for next weeks training.

Abraco! Alexandre