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Numbers: Legitimate Greip

Greipel_medium

It was early last winter* that Ursula and I and others stumbled into the newly-discovered world of cycling sabr-metrics, examining and tinkering with numbers to unearth certain "truths" about cycling. I started with sprinters, and even managed to show that... wait for it... Mark Cavendish is a pretty fair sprinter. It's been a fun exercise, though Ursula has taken it much further than I have. I'm still pretty much stuck on sprinters.

[* the season between Lombardia and the TdU]

But this tinkering has increased my excitement about sprinters, a class of riders I usually focus on when there are no classics to write about or grand tours pending. Even in the early Cavendish Era, a closer examination shows that there are other sprinters worth paying attention to. Tyler Farrar, for one, in part due to our geographic connection as well as his glittering future prospects.

Next, and equally worthy of some attention, is André Greipel. Second in the world in victories this year, Greipel is better known as the guy who wins sprints for Columbia when Mark Cavendish is otherwise occupied. In early 2008, Greipel burst out of his early-career T-Mobile-induced slumber as soon as he donned the High Road black incognito kit (remember those?), winning more races in Austrialia that January than he'd captured in his top-level pro career to date. As we approach the 2010 Tour Down Under, it seems right to look a little closer at Greipel's performances, and contrast them with his main rivals in Adelaide, Allan Davis and Graeme Brown.

Star-divide

First, let's set the premise a bit better. Greipel and Farrar had similar successes this year, ranking close to each other in victories, points and even deadlocked head-to-head. But they only faced each other in six sprints, for the simple reason that Greipel is Plan B at Columbia HTC, while Farrar is Plan A at Garmin-Transitions, meaning different race plans. Well, results are entirely relative, so while they might make for a good comparison if they faced off more, it's more accurate to judge their performances against riders other than each other. Thus, Farrar vs. Cav. And Greipel vs. Davis vs. Brown.

Greipel, Davis and Brown have gone head to head to head in places like the TdU, Ster Elektrotoer, the Tour of Poland, and the Tour of Belgium. Each is sort of a B-list sprinter in their respective team lineups, either running interference for Cav, Boonen and Freire in July or watching them on TV. However unique they may be -- and I realize their respective focuses aren't identical -- their roles in the peloton are comparable enough for a valid comparison. Which leads us to the numbers...

Rider %Finale Wins Win% AvPlace Top 10% Top 5% CQ Pts
Allan Davis Past 78 8 11 5.6 80 58 ...
Allan Davis '09 74 3 11 5.5 59 40 1085
Graeme Brown Past 91 4 5.8 8.3 67 52 ...
Graeme Brown '09 84 4 12.1 7.0 69 36 794
André Greipel '08 65 8 27.5 5.3 58 48 1241
André Greipel '09 96 17 58.6 2.9 96 82 1391


We should also include the head to head scores. Let's just run 2009.

  • Greipel 10 - 4 Davis (4-1 Greipel in wins)
  • Greipel 8 - 4 Brown (6-0 Greipel in wins)
  • Davis 5 - 7 Brown (1-1 in wins)

A few more words about the numbers. "Past" for Davis and Brown indicates that I lifted numbers from this post which lumped 2007 and 2008 numbers together. This explains why Allan Davis can go from 8 "past" wins to 3 wins in 2009 and not see his winning percentage drop. Also, for Greipel and for all the 2009 numbers I eliminated one-day races and only looked at sprint stages in stage races, since this is really where these guys compete. This lopped off a couple of Greipel's 2009 wins, but he has plenty to spare. Oh, and for some reason CQ isn't picking up all of the TdU as "sprint stages," including wins by Davis and Brown. Whatever.

Anyway, the resulting ranking of the three, as stage race sprinters, is pretty clear:

  1. Greipel
  2. Davis
  3. Brown

Starting with Brown, the comparison we ran with Davis last year held true in 2009, though he showed a bit more with some minor one-day wins in Belgium, including Nokere-Koerse. He really doesn't beat either of his main two TdU rivals much, but he did nip his countryman for one stage this year. The most you can say about Brown is that, in January at least, he will give the other two a run for their money, but the rest of the year Davis and Greipel will compete at a slightly higher level. Nice bounce-back year for Graeme after a bad 2008, though.

Davis is an example of why points systems are at least as telling as the sprint stuff I am working with here, and why maybe all of it needs to be taken together (at least until Ursula merges them in to a "wins above replacement sprinter" figure). Davis' 2009 numbers aren't radically different from Brown's except for the CQ points, where a few results tell the difference between the respective Aussie closers. While Brown won a handful of races, Davis can look to some secondary placings for serious comfort: fourth in Milano-Sanremo (a race he nearly won in 2007); second in Paris-Brussels behind Matt Goss; and second at the GP Wallonie after Nick Nuyens. These aren't races where you're likely to see Brown on the podium. Bottom line: when Davis isn't crossing swords with the Graeme Browns of the world in stage-race sprints, he's battling the big boys on the one-day scene. And with some success, at that. Moreover, his seasons have been pretty consistent, so look for more of the same this year.

So, perhaps Davis and Greipel, winners of the last two TdUs, make for a fair fight? Maybe in Australia, but on his home course the numbers for Davis aren't actually very promising. He's only bested Greipel three times in the last two years, twice for the win, in the TdU, while Greipel has reeled off six head-to-head wins en route to the 2008 overall title, followed by a crash-out in 2009 that cleared the path for Davis. Greipel has had the benefit of his Columbia mates in past seasons -- best in the business -- though turnover in their leadout team might change things in 2010. For now, if Greipel stays upright in Australia, he's presumably the man to beat.

Comparisons aside, Greipel's 2009 season was nothing short of awesome. A 58.6% winning percentage, for instance, is better than Cavendish in 2008 and Boonen in 2006. Last year Greipel won 11 consecutive sprints at one point, and when it came to finishing top ten or top five, he was practically automatic, averaging better than third place. Again, these are Boonen and Cav numbers. The knock on him would be the quality of the races, but a) you can only race where your team puts you on the roster; and b) he scored four Vuelta stage wins, even beating Boonen, Bennati, Farrar and Freire head to head early on. If the 27-year-old Greipel isn't thinking of what he could accomplish as the top man on another team (say, in 2011), he should be.

One closing note... my rankings of this trio in one-day races, which is a nice reminder that no three riders, even these three, are all that much alike:

  1. Davis
  2. Brown
  3. Greipel

Sorry André. Stick to what you're good, maybe even great, at. Who knows, maybe the one-day results are just around the corner too.

Photo by Ezra Shaw, Getty Images Sport

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments |

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I agree about Greipel, but providing he's racing

I’m thinking Baden Cooke might be a man on a mission… he’s in from the wilderness and if Stuey doesn’t race, it will possibly work to his advantage. That said, Jens! would have lots of support.

"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'

by Seahorse on Dec 21, 2009 11:54 PM EST reply actions  

Greipel should definitely be ahead of Brown in the one-days. He doesn't do a lot of them...

but when he does, he usually places well. In 2009 he had a total of 6 starts in one-day races and most of the ones he was sent to were not of the highest caliber. Even when he was healthy during the spring in ’08, he was not sent to San Remo or any other high caliber sprinters affair. In 2009, he won half of the 6 one-days he started (Paris-Bourges over Haedo, Nuessen Classics over Haussler and Philly Champs). He has won a good amount of semi-classics and had a fair bit of other good results in the one-day department.

Andre is way better than Brownie all the way around and if they would go heads up, he would beat his senseless. If he is scheduled more classics, then he should be able to win a good bit

TDU should be a Greipel-fest as long as he doesn’t crash then it would be Davis. Other guys should be McEwen, Cooke, Sutton, Leigh Howard, Goss, etc. depending on who is there.

by Vlaanderen90 on Dec 22, 2009 12:02 AM EST reply actions  

I don't disagree

but until he gets actually results, it’s speculative.

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 22, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions  

about the one-day comparisons

that is

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 22, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Gert.

One of the ‘other guys’. (if he can somehow keep Robbie off his arse, LOL)

by Lou... on Dec 22, 2009 5:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Good point

although it might be frustrating to do anything with him, since he has so little data from the last two seasons.

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 22, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Greipel and the Vuelta

Apparently Columbia plans to send both Cavendish and Greipel to this year’s Vuelta because it is such a nice preparation for the Worlds in Australia. That could make a repeat performance for Greipel a whole lot harder.

Football is a game, cycling a sport.

by Lopex on Dec 22, 2009 3:32 AM EST reply actions  

Seems like he should do the Giro then

Can’t imagine Cav doing al three GT’s and it sounds like he’ll be missing the Giro.

by ursula on Dec 22, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

That sounds very plausible

We’ll see.

Football is a game, cycling a sport.

by Lopex on Dec 22, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

"Late last year"

Why not avoid the meteorological confusion altogether? ;-)

I think that Seahorse might be onto something with Cookie, too…

by Lou... on Dec 22, 2009 5:21 AM EST reply actions  

Thanks Lou... I can always rely on you

My money’s on Cookie… it’s all about finding the mongrel that lives within us all :)

"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'

by Seahorse on Dec 22, 2009 7:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Not sure I see Greipel moving on

Columbia is such a sprint squad these days that they can still send a great train to even lesser races. Even as the plan B sprinter with (sometimes) the plan B squad Greipel got the second most victories in 2009 behind, quelle surprise, Columbia’s plan A, Cav.

Unless someone else choses to put together a sprint team to rival Columbia I can’t see him – and given he seems to be quite happy at Columbia and quite a modest guy that seems unlikely to me.

Of course that means we’ll shortly hear he’s broken his contract and is going to Milram next year…

by thebongolian on Dec 22, 2009 8:41 AM EST reply actions  

Greipel to Sky would have made sense.

A good environment to help him win races like Gent-Wevelgem or Vattenfalls, along with the occasional GT win.

For some reason Greipel is really bad on the cobbles. No idea why.

by Mr 60 Percent on Dec 22, 2009 9:17 AM EST reply actions  

They're bouncy?

Just a guess. Not everyone likes them (sickos).

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 22, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Looking forward to a picture

next spring of a mangled, dirty and exhausted Chris on the cobbles after a ride. Photo caption: “They’re bouncy”

by Jens on Dec 23, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Has anyone noticed

how much Greipel seems to like my headline?

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 22, 2009 1:42 PM EST reply actions  

smug even

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 23, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe Cav will go to Sky in 2011(well it COULD happen)

and Greipel will have all that Columbia support for himself….and I’ll dream on now.

Look, it's a bird...no, it's a plane....oh never mind it's just fucking balloon boy

by Phil H. on Dec 22, 2009 2:31 PM EST reply actions  

Yep

and %wins is the slugging.

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 22, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

"you can only race where your team puts you on the roster;"

I’ve been wrestling with this phrase of yours for a year or so now. I think that there’s a lot to it and Greipel in 09 highlights it perfectly. At the same time I don’t quite grasp all the implications.

For instance, how much of Greipel’s success due to riding for Columbia, a team that seems to know what races to place riders in so they stand a better chance at winning that similar riders on other teams. Im guessing Greg Henderson benefited too. (And I’d love to see Henderson compared to Brownie.) And to me this gets to the heart of devising a WAR type stat for cycling since WAR speaks directly to how good a job management does or how efficient management is) in delivering the right players (riders) to the right race.

I think of Greipel’s Vuelta performance as a result of the confidence and understanding gained from racing lesser races earlier in the summer. But the time the Vuelta came around Greipel knew how to win. By contrast Boonen and Bennati (and their team’s management) had lost that bunch sprint knowledge. B & B might be as physically gifted (or more) than Greipel but bunch sprinting isn’t just a bunch of talented fast men racing down a road. There’s real knowledge to be gained on how to win. So the question is, with Greipel, how much of his win can be attributed to his physical abilities and how much to management placing him in the position to learn how to win. (Of course just placing a rider in position to learn is one thing, the rider actually learning something is quite another.)

I’m just rambling here but I do think that in time we can devise a cycling Wins Above Replacement stat.

by ursula on Dec 23, 2009 7:31 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Henderson

I forgot to finish talking about Greg Henderson, who at age 33 had a huge jump in performance. I look at this career year as being due to management putting him in the right races more than Henderson all of a sudden becoming faster.

by ursula on Dec 23, 2009 8:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Hm

I suppose the baseball equivalent is park factor. If you’re on Columbia, your WAR has to get adjusted downward a shade, at least for stage sprints (though upward for GC placings). The trick is to then devise a system for these team expectancy adjustments.

And you can now add statistics to the list of subjects I wish I had studied in college instead of fracking literature.

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 23, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Update!!

VN says Renshaw is out of the TdU. This reduces Greipel’s chances a bit, although Renshaw’s place will be taken by someone else of use, and Greipel will still know how to finish. But it does raise the possibility of needing a stage or two before they get it down pat.

"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen

by Chris... on Dec 23, 2009 6:14 PM EST reply actions  

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