"Dregs" at Astana?

but I don’t necessarily think that youth=stronger as you put it. Chechu Rubiera is one of the old guard (36?) and still rides with whoever he’s told to ride with – period. The guy is amazing. Also, the experience that comes with season after season of exposure to that level of suffering can only help. There is a bit of terror that goes along with being a newbie facing a grand tour – fear of the unknown. It manifests itself in a lot of wasted energy, so I feel it balances out.

What’s the concern exactly? I assumed he’s a middlin’ climber who would be useful at times, though admittedly I don’t know him well.

that Contador has a great team of potential stage winners rather than a dedicated squad with a singular, unified mission to carry him to the top podium step in Paris. Discipline within their ranks and daily, consistent, submission to the common cause could prove to be the most challenging aspect of his campaign. I don’t see Radio Shack having those types of isues….AT ALL.

contador > a. schleck (but close enough to make it interesting)
f. schleck > vinokourov
fuglsang/c. sorenson > pereiro, delafuente, fofonov, dyachenko, etc (the young danes can climb, its a matter of prowess that can be questioned, however their talent gives saxo better tactical weapons than they had last year)
cancellara, voight, o’grady are beasts on the flats, and leading into the climbs, no comparison over on astana

HA! I LOVE IT!! That’s funny,

Yes, 8th it was last year, 27th in ‘08. As for your LeMond, I don’t know that I ever realized that he had four Flanders champs amongst his Tour squad on ADR – that’s totally cool. The problem with having classics aces working a 3 week stint as domestiques is that they can get stage hungry just to stay motivated. The psychology of mission unification and sacrifice are truly paramount, so its up to the leaders (the team leader would be the obvious choice, but its often directors and veteran domestiques that motivate and help hone the focus of the other support riders – Jens Voigt is a good example of this, so was Frankie Andreau back in the day)

1)Periero- well you did say “could”. But it still made me chuckle.

2)Cobbles- it won’t decide the Tour. It may knock out one unlucky GC contender because of a crash, but 40km of those bad boys would have been better.

3)“Astana crushing those stages” It’s one stage isn’t it? 13km of cobbles? Astana won’t be crushing anything that day. They’ll be too concerned with protecting AC.

4)I think Levi will have no problems with that day. He handles a bike just fine offroad.

I do agree the cobble stage could be a failure for anybody, and I hope it will have some fireworks and prove to be a factor in some way. I know nobody likes to see a crash take someone out of contention, but c’mon it’s cobbles, skills and luck rule the day.

Lucky for him he’s got a scrappy bunch of classics types to and school him in the months ahead, then sheppard him through the pave in July.

Lance holding his wheel with every ounce of his ancient body, setting us up for last week heroics and legendary days.

Its a nice dream but no way the Peloton lets Lance get away on any stage. Not again. He kicked their butt for 7 years and they are not going to give him an inch to do it again.

Here is the alternate fantasy prediction. Kloden, Leipheimer, Shleck-A, Shleck-F,Lance and Cadel attack AC all day long. AC cracks. Lance sucks onto Andy’s wheel and they leave the rest behind. Then the time trial decides the champion.

you just bet against Jens! AND Cance being able to do something….oh I hope you won’t pay too much for doing so but I would be scared if I were you, very scared.

I would put Davis ON his TDF squad

I think the real question is whether or not he even makes Astana’s tour team.

Were I directing Astana, I’d try to avoid putting Contador in yellow until the last week.

That way Astana wouldn need the big motors to chase down breaks, and you just need some folks to keep him fed and happy and positioned.

My reasoning here assumes a race in which Sky (assuming they’re invited), BMC (ditto), Saxo, and Radio Shack all have interests in play as well as Astana. WIth that much marking things can turn pretty negative.

I mean . . . after all these years everyone knows the Bruyneel strategy: 1. identify the key kilometers where something could happen and focus all of the efforts of your gc rider there. Those key kilometers vary every year so the strategy looks a little different each year, but it’s really the same. 2. Figure out ways to get other teams to waste the energy of their gc rider before those key kilometers.

The cobbles stage could turn out to be decisive, but then again, no one predicted ahead of time what would happen on stage 3 in 2009. As sort of a concern-troll, I worry that Armstrong’s run of luck could go . . ..

I’m sure those days are circled in red on the RS,SAXO, Caisse, and Liquigas calendars.

Mark my words though, if there is a breakaway and team Astana has to work out front all day by themselves, the next day they will be vulnerable.

Guiseppe Martinelli is the main DS and he’s no newbie.

if I could. Guess we’ll know more in a few months.

of his time. They have enough tactical guile to lead Contador and co.

1st , Vino starting the Tour, which I’m sure the federation is pushing, is way up in the air to me.

That said there are several Kazaks who could and should do well in a Grand Tour in supporting roles and I can well see 6 of them at the Giro with fewer in the Tour. Besides Vino, I count Bazayev, M Iglinsky, Dyachenko, Renev, and Zeits as likely to be in one GT or another. All except Dyachenko and Renev have GT experience and I’m surprised Dyachenko wasn’t picked last year after his Dauphine. In no way do I see including these guys as hurting Contador’s chances or showing in some way that Contador has less influence. He’d probably want a couple of them as they’ve helped him in the past.

theyll probably be at the start line in July, just as long as ASO doesn’t ban Vino and Fofonov for past discretions. Bazayev and M. Iglinsky also stand a decent chance, both experienced riders.

and Quick-Step played a major role in creating Contador’s problem.

Part of the problem in the last 20 or so k, no doubt, stemmed from Contador over-estimating his abilities and making efforts that were unnecessary.

And, as many people pointed out at the time, Contador was left isolated at about 35-30k to go.

But what I just noticed today was Quick-Step’s decision to stop riding shortly after they noticed that Contador had no team-mates left.

My video starts at about 60k to go. From 60 to 45 or thereabouts, Contador is surrounded by Astanii; they start fading away after that. In the 40k to go range, Quick-Step also has 4 or 5 guys riding tempo.

But, within a minute or two of Contador being isolated, one Quick-step rider (sorry, I was on the rollers and didn’t id) looks around, then peels out of the line and taps the next Q-S rider and they have a little chat. And then, the other Q-S guys slide down the bunch, at which point Caisse d’Epargne takes the front, and Contador thinks it’s play time with Lulu . . .

But, to prolong this ridiculous response even more . . . if Q-S’s tactics were designed to set up a move by Chavanel (which they were) and not give Contador any benefit, THE single most amazing ride of the day was turned in by Jens!, who wound up being the guy whose efforts finally dropped Contador—after dragging Andy S. back into contention.

The real heroes of the race are often not those who get across the line first.

esecially the post Pisa camp quotes, of which all were new to me. It’ll be interesting to see if Noval and Navarro (and several of the other “non-supers”) will be riding both Giro and Tour. It would seem to me that the only one with any leverage at Astana that gives a rats $@% about the Vuelta is Contador himself. I don’t believe that Periero’s and his leuitenant Jesus’ (H. not C.) wishes could be entertained on the record in the early season as a motivator, but will likely be an insignificant priority to the shot callers come May.

but i bet we’ll see at least 3 kazakhs regardless. i personally think Tiralongo, Zeits, Navarro, Hernandez will make up the nucleus of a pretty good Giro team, not likely to see more than 1 of these guys on the Tour squad, if any of them.

have been supported by riders that fit your description. Being random to regular, normally interested fans does not make you any DS’s second choice when it comes to picking support-riders.

Astana may have been late-ish with their signings but AC was as much to blame for that as anyone and judging by the names they have at their disposal it hasn’t hurt them much. They are not as deep in talent so they might be more vulnerable to injury.

are best suited to be the type of rider you call, “almosts”. In fact, some of the greatest assets individually to tour winners’ victories have been exactly those type of riders – guys that have NO issues with sacrifice or individual glory. When’s the last time Chechu really won anything major?? Never, outside of one Giro stage I think, yet he’s just been hired on for his 16th pro season, and has regularly been on top of Lance’s draft picks.

isn’t a truly accepted as a champion until he’s endured, suffered through, and emerged triumphant from a catastrophy of collossal personal adversity/tragedy. I can site several examples if you care to.

Look, Vino hasn’t been ruled out yet, and honestly, despite his age, he could still be a dark horse long shot should something happen to AC. In fact, if he were on most any of the other teams (outside of Saxo or RS, and maybe Leaky), he’d not only be considered the team leader, but also more of a candidate victory.