VDS: Who was worth it last year?

by majope on Feb 11, 2009 11:41 AM EST in Virtual Directeur Sportif! Comment 22 comments

So…you want an elite VDS team this year. 10,000 points. A height reached by only 6 players last year. Or at least you want to break 9,000, which would have put you firmly in last season’s top 20. The math is simple: You have 150 points to spend. For a 10K team, each point spent must return 66.67 points in earnings. To break 9K, the pps [per point spent] return must be at least 60.

At those rates, which riders earned out their cost last year? Find out below the fold.

Which riders earned out their cost last year? That’s easy enough: next to each price point below, I’ve put the earnings needed to put you on track for a 10K or 9K team—for example, 25:1667/1500 means that at a cost of 25, a rider needs to return 1667 points for a 10K team or 1500 for a 9K team.

Each rider is listed with the points they earned last year, so you can easily glance at their price point heading and see whether they met their goals. To make things really easy for you, I've bolded the riders' names whose return was worthy of a 10K team, and italicized those whose earnings weren't that high, but would've contributed to a 9K team.

Next is their new cost for the 2009 season, and a Yes or No as to whether—if they return the same number of points—they will be worth their price this year. Note: a single No or Yes means they wouldn’t or would make it for either a 10K or 9K team, while a No/Yes means they wouldn’t earn enough for 10K but would for 9K. Got it? Again, to make for easy scanning, I've bolded each Yes and No/Yes.

Example: Fabian Cancellara cost 20 and earned 1622 points last year, well above the 1333 or 1200 points he’d need to earn you for a 10K or 9K team. But this year he costs 25 points, so needs to earn 1667/1500 to put you on track for a 10K/9K team. Should he earn the same 1622, he’s a No/Yes: he wouldn’t quite be worthy for a 10K team, but well worth the price for a 9K team.

Obviously, few riders will earn exactly the same number of points as last season. Some are on their way up, some down, some got injured and earned below their capabilities last year (and you can bet some will this year). But this will give you a sense of how much they might have to improve to be worth a gamble—or how many points they can go down and still be valuable to your team. And, of course, it’s something else to mess with your head in the last two weeks before teams are due in. Enjoy!

[Note: the arithmetic was damned easy, but there was a lot of it and my mind tends to wander. Please point out errors (nicely) and I'll be happy to correct them.]

25: 1667/1500
Cadel Evans: 1690 New cost: 25 Worth new cost? Yes.
Alejandro Valverde: 2481 New cost: 25 Worth new cost? Yes.
Alberto Contador: 2761 New cost: 25 Worth new cost? Yes.
Oscar Freire: 1322 New cost: 18. Worth new cost? Yes.
Denis Menchov: 870 New cost: 16 Worth new cost? No.
Tom Boonen: 1019 New cost: 20 Worth new cost? No.

20: 1333/1200
Alessandro Petacchi: 105 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Levi Leipheimer: 1520 New cost: 18. Worth new cost? Yes.
Daniele Bennati: 1140 New cost: 18 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Danilo DiLuca: 540 New cost:12 Worth new cost? No.
Ricardo Ricco: 900 Unavailable.
Alessandro Ballan: 1335 New cost: 20 Worth new cost? Yes.
Fabian Cancellara: 1622 New cost: 25. Worth new cost? No/Yes

18: 1200/1080
Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez: 770 New cost: 14 Worth new cost? No.
Andy Schleck: 800 New cost: 16 Worth new cost? No.
Damiano Cunego: 1395 New cost: 20 Worth new cost? Yes
Jens! Voigt: 260 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? No.
Paolo Bettini: 684 New cost: Retired
Davide Rebellin: 1991 New cost: 20 Worth new cost? Yes.
Thomas Dekker: 675 New cost: 12 Worth new cost? No.

16: 1067/960
Kim Kirchen: 1257 New cost: 18 Worth new cost? Yes.
Vlad Gusev: 60 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Vlad Karpets: 0 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? No.
Erik Zabel: 750 New cost: Retired
Robbie McEwen: 675 New cost: 12 Worth new cost? No.
Filippo Pozzato: 766 New cost: 14. Worth new cost? No.
Stefan Schumacher: 315 Currently unavailable.
Stuart O'Grady: 315 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? No.
Thor Hushovd: 922 New cost: 16 Worth new cost? No.
Carlos Sastre: 1207 New cost: 18 Worth new cost? Yes.
Frank Schleck: 975 New cost: 16 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Andreas Kloden: 557 New cost: 8 Worth new cost? Yes.
Marcus Burghardt: 80 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.

14: 933/840
JJ Cobo Acebo: 50 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Alessandro Bertolini: 80 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Franco Pellizotti: 769 New cost: 14 Worth new cost? No.
Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver: 1017 New cost: 16 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Fabian Wegmann: 220 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Danilo Napolitano: 45 New cost:2 Worth new cost? No.
Vincenzo Nibali: 399 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? Yes
Christophe Moreau: 60 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Mark Cavendish: 913 New cost: 20 Worth new cost? No.
Luca Mazzanti: 10 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Vlad Efimkin: 240 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No/Yes.

12: 800/720
Baden Cooke: 20 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Robbie Hunter: 20 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Gilberto Simoni: 270 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Gerald Ciolek: 240 New cost: 10 Worth new cost? No.
Philippe Gilbert: 1090 New cost: 16 Worth new cost? Yes.
Jose Ivan Gutierrez Palacios: 10 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Stijn Devolder: 755 New cost: 14 Worth new cost? No.
Juan Mauricio Soler Hernandez: 2 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Wouter Weylandt: 290 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Martin Elminger: 115 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
David Lopez Garcia: 180 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Gert Steegmans: 195 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Allan Davis: 340 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Leonardo Piepoli: 130 New cost: Suspended.
Leif Hoste: 350 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Nick Nuyens: 710 New cost: 10 Worth new cost? Yes.
George Hincapie: 445 New cost: 8 Worth new cost? No.
Michael Rogers: 260 New cost: 10 Worth new cost? No.

10: 667/600
Tadej Valjavec: 295 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Robert Gesink: 1077 New cost: 16 Worth new cost? Yes.
Greg Van Avermaet: 785 New cost: 14 Worth new cost? No.
Steven De Jongh: 295 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Igor Anton Hernandez: 244 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Alexandr Kolobnev: 532 New cost: 12. Worth new cost? No.
Romain Feillu: 225 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Leonardo Bertagnolli: 50 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Kurt-Asle Arvesen: 605 New cost: 10 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Graeme Brown: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Gustav Erik Larsson: 705 New cost: 12 Worth new cost? No.
JJ Rojas Gil: 310 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? No.
John Gadret: 180 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Francisco Mancebo Perez: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Giovanni Visconti: 660 New cost: 10 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Thomas Voeckler: 250 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Tom Danielson: 0 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.

8: 533/480
Daniel Moreno Fernandez: 152 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Chris Horner: 175 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
David Millar: 125 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Matteo Carrara: 10 New cost: Unavailable.
Evgeni Petrov: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Stefan Van Dijk: 60 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
JJ Haedo: 35 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Xavier Tondo Volponi: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Luca Paolini: 150 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Mikhael Ignatiev: 35 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Janez Brajkovic: 675 New cost: 12 Worth new cost? No.
Yaroslav Popovych: 230 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Paolo Savoldelli: 110 New cost: unavailable.

6: 400/360
Jose Angel Gomez Marchante: 10 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Eladio Jimenez Sanchez: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Vasil Kiryienka: 290 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Oscar Sevilla: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Linus Gerdemann: 392 New cost: 14 Worth new cost? No.
Stef Clement: 150 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Joaquim Barbosa Candido: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Maarten Tjallingii: 45 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Mikel Astarloza: 360 New cost: 4 Worth new cost: Yes.
Matti Breschel: 427 New cost: 8 Worth new cost: No.
Bernhardt Eisel: 275 New cost: 4 Worth new cost: Yes.
Stefano Garzelli: 150 New cost: 4 Worth new cost: No.
Bert Grabsch: 305 New cost: 4 Worth new cost: Yes.
Christian Pfannenberger: 597 New cost: 10 Worth new cost: No.
Janek Tombak: 140 New cost:2 Worth new cost: Yes.
Manuel Beltran Martinez: 10 New cost: Unavailable.
Juan Antonio Flecha: 490 New cost: 8 Worth new cost: No.
Pierrick Fedrigo: 355 New cost: 4 Worth new cost: Yes.
Paul Martens: 20 New cost: 2 Worth new cost: No.
Haimar Zubeldia Agirre: 260 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Luis Leon Sanchez Gil: 450 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? Yes.
Koldo Gil Perez: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Sebastian Chavanel: 85 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Andreas Klier: 85 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Remy DiGregorio: 20 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Bernhardt Kohl: 545 Currently unavailable.
Magnus Backstedt: 66 Retired.
Juan Manuel Garate: 269 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Thomas Lovkvist: 865 New cost: 14 Worth new cost? No/Yes.

4: 267/240
Bert De Waele: 60 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Angel Vicioso Arcos: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Sebastien Rosseler: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Anthony Charteau: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Enrico Gasparotto: 513 New cost: 8 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Francisco Jose Ventoso Alberdi: 10 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Roman Kreuziger: 716 New cost: 12 Worth new cost? No.
Bobby Julich: 30 Retired.
Marzio Bruseghin: 630 New cost: 10 Worth new cost? No/Yes
Fortunato Baliani: 190 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Edvald Boasson Hagen: 40 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? No.
Eddy Mazzoleni: 0 Unavailable.
David Zabriskie: 271 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? No.
Tomas Vaitkus: 10 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Emanuele Sella: 940 Unavailable.
Pavel Brutt: 80 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Alexandre Usov: 85 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Sylvester Szmyd: 40 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Sylvain Chavanel: 675 New cost: 12 Worth new cost? No.
Peter Velits: 50 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Leonardo Duque: 145 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Koldo Fernandez De Larrea: 190 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Ezequiel Mosquera Miguez: 455 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? Yes.
Dimitri Champion: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Jose Rujano: 125 Unavailable.
Sebastian Lang: 20 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Nicholas Roche: 180 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Rene Haselbacher: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Oscar Gatto: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Stephan Schreck: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Gianni Meersman: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Heinrich Haussler: 155 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Dominique Cornu: 0 Unavailable.
Dmitriy Fofonov: 60 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Pietro Caucchioli: 125 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No/Yes
Robert Forster: 70 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Francesco Chicchi: 90 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Lars Bak: 50 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Benoit Vaugrenard: 140 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Chris Anker Sorensen: 190 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Lars Boom: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Matthieu Ladagnous: 0 Unavailable
Nico Eeckhout: 100 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Nicki Sorensen: 10 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Sandy Casar: 305 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Jimmy Casper: 35 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.

2: 133/120
Kanstantin Siutsou: 67 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Roger Hammond: 70 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Patxi Vila Errandonea: 20 Unavailable.
Gregory Rast: 130 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Mikhaylo Khalilov: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Gorik Gardeyn: 50 Unavailable.
Gabriele Bosisio: 120 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Roy Sentjens: 0 New cost: is this Roy Sijmens on the new list? If so, 1 Worth new cost? No.
Hector Guerra Garcia: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Alexandre Efimkin: 45 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Ariel Maximilliano Richeze 0 Unavailable.
Alexandre Botcharov: 80 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Johan Van Summeren [Vansummeren]: 150 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes. Martyn Maaskant: 330 New cost: 8 Worth new cost? No.
Borut Bozic: 85 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Steffen Radochla: 0 Unavailable.
Rinaldo Nocentini: 495 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? Yes.
Carlos Barredo Llamazales: 144 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Christian Vandevelde [Vande Velde]: 366 New cost: 8 Worth new cost? No.
Ludovic Turpin: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Manuele Mori: 80 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Andy Capelle: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Marco Marcato: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Marco Pinotti: 495 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? Yes.
Daniele Pietropolli: 10 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Jose Miguel Elias Galindo: 0 Unavailable.
Ruslan Pidgornyy: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Vicente Reynes Mimo: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Oscar Pereiro Sio: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Thomas Rohregger: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Jeremy Hunt: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Christian Murro: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Murilo Fischer: 80 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Maxime Monfort: 245 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Laurens Ten Dam: 110 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Luis Perez Rodriguez: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Massimo Giunti: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Santo Anza: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
David Rodriguez Blanco: 0 Unavailable
Luke Roberts: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Javier Benitez Pomares: 0 Unavailable.
Remi Pauriol:178 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Pablo Lastras Garcia: 80 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Jerome Pineau: 220 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Bram Tankink: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Constantino Zaballa Gutierrez: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Alberto Fernandez de la Puebla: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Jose Azevedo: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Moises Duenas: 0 Unavailable.
Staf Schierlinckx: 120 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
Andrea Noe: 74 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Dario Cioni: 0 Unavailable.
David Kopp: 200 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Simon Gerrans: 170 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? Yes.
Karsten Kroon: 402 New cost: 6 Worth new cost? Yes.
Manuel Quinziato: 286 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? Yes.
Xavier Florencio Cabre: 0 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Luis Felipe Laverde Jimenez: 35 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Brad Wiggins: 27 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Jason McCartney: 10 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Daniele Nardello: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Mario Aerts: 90 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Andre Greipel: 120 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No/Yes.
William Bonnet: 40 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Paolo Bossoni: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Paride Grillo: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Alberto Loddo: 10 New cost: 2 Worth new cost? No.
Bert Roesems: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Markus Fothen: 205 New cost: 4 Worth new cost? No.
Lorenzo Bernucci: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Erki Putsep: 0 Unavailable.
Darren Lapthorne: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.
Kevin Hulsmans: 0 New cost: 1 Worth new cost? No.

0 recs | Comment 22 comments

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:O .........................................................................

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Speechless looking to all the numbers

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Feb 11, 2009 11:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

more than 10k

good stuff, Looks like I’ll be counting on a few guys to step it up this year :)

And then of course there is the wrinkle of the added races, with all the extra points, next year’s winner is highly likely to need more than the magical 10,000 points. And some of the riders that don’t make it with last year’s set of races do look better in the context of those that have been added.

by kimchi on Feb 11, 2009 1:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yup. Very good point.

Just not something to get a good handle on, numerically. Without going back and adding in points from the new races—and subtracting points from the races that got downgraded, that is, and I’m flat-out daunted by such a task. But it’s definitely something to take into consideration when deciding which riders to gamble on—especially those who were close.

Google is my domestique.

by majope on Feb 11, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I need to start all over again!

Thanks majope, excellent job!

by Bruce Suomi on Feb 11, 2009 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes, excellent job!

i was cross-eyed going over those numbers, so i’m glad to see your analysis lines up pretty well with mine. sure, i made some sentimental choices and some speculative ones as well, but these seem to be balanced by some solid investments, which is more than i can say for my pension fund in the current market.

by nicknorco on Feb 11, 2009 1:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"...it’s something else to mess with your head in the last two weeks before teams are due in."

Yeah, thanks alot ;-)

Actually, going over your numbers with my squadra, it’s looking pretty good.

Thanks for your efforts…now stop it already! ;-)

by itswells on Feb 11, 2009 1:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Damn, you could have put this up sooner and saved me a lot of time.

But thanks anyway, very helpful.

by sminer on Feb 11, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reversion to Mean will hit here

You (as in the reader not Majope would possibly keel over under the numbers) will have to consider career numbers here. This is a perfect place where Reversion to the Mean will kill you. That is, generally guys that did really above their average last year will be worse this year and guys generally who did worse last year will do better. If there was an injury or other reason to be down last year and up this year, those would be the guys to go for, I think.

by Markk on Feb 11, 2009 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

good point

Riders that had their “career” year could turn out to be very overpriced. I’ll bet Roger Maris would be a popular pick if this were 1962. Or better yet Roger Walkowiak (sp?) c1957.

Anatole

by huy on Feb 11, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The trick

is to guess who had their career year last year, who can sustain it this year, and who will have their career year this year, and who is on the downward trend.

by ursula on Feb 11, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And the answer

is 27.62

by Monty. on Feb 11, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, Douglas Adams- flashbacks

Wasn’t the answer 42?

by Jens on Feb 11, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Which would mean

it’s never too late to improve your average, and that your secret VDS weapon is none other than Lance himself.

by Monty. on Feb 11, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome, more statistics to have floating in my brain...

Especially if I wasted my time computing if hotitude was worth the cost.

Mon coeur appartient à les forçats de la route.

by Josenka on Feb 11, 2009 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It has been statistically proven that hottitude adds 15 percent to the value of a rider.

So, Cancellara’s 1622 points are equal to a standard rider’s 1865 points—at least to a DS who is inclined toward his brand of beefcake. Exception: Bennati gets a higher hottitude adjustment of 16.3 percent if and only if he’s wearing sunglasses.

Google is my domestique.

by majope on Feb 11, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Amazing

We have all pretty much run out of excuses when our team tanks.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 11, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to go with :

“my brain couldn’t process all that data” or maybe “I put together my team in Mexico when I was drunk” . Or did someone use that last one already?

by Jens on Feb 11, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah

Like you really need an excuse, what with past form and the like.

by Monty. on Feb 11, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm overdue a fiasco-season

Of course with the uber-awesome-all-crushing monster of a superteam I have assembled I don’t foresee that 2009 will be it but you never know. Perhaps Kevin Seeldrayers won’t get 700 points this season? Who knows?

by Jens on Feb 11, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs