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Back Pocket Previews '09: Astana

Back-pocket-2_mediumAmerica's team? At least back in Lance 2.0 we had the US Postal squad, staffed by American riders, hogging the American press. Now we have two marvelous American based teams, one of which (Garmin) has a pretty hefty quotient of Americans involved, and yet it's still Lance the press dwells on. So as far as more than a few people are concerned, it's a Swiss-based team sponsored by the government of Kazakhstan, that now passes for America's team.

And I couldn't be more approving. Nationality shmationality, Astana are a thoroughly loaded outfit, were so even before Lance 3.0 was released. They are a little heavy on the stage racing, perhaps more than they ought to be given some of their other talents, but there's nothing to disparage about a team of this quality. In fact, hopefully Lance will lure in millions of American fans, only to have them see that he's advertising for the Land of Borat, and his team is a Spanish-Kazakh powerhouse. Cycling has no borders, unless sustainable watts/kg can be considered a border.

Attributes: Not to belabor the obvious, but Bruyneel has Alberto Contador, winner of the last three grand tours he attended (and two Castilla y Leons and a Pais Vasco), at his disposal. If something goes wrong, he can turn to either Levi Leipheimer (two three GT podiums) or Andreas Kloden (2nd at the Tour), or seven-time Tour winner Lance Armstrong. Or, hell, if he's feeling adventurous, Jani Brajkovic. Or Haimar Zubeldia, owner of three top-ten finishes. Whoever it is will be supported by world class grand tour domestiques like Chris Horner, Yaroslav Popovych, Chechu Rubiera, Ben Noval, Sergio Paulhino... can I stop now? You can argue as to whether the 1927 Yankees were really all that great, but I don't see how you can argue with this Tour lineup. Just speculating, but by the time the Tour reaches Paris I think you'd have to go back to -- what? T-Mobile 1997? Renault 1982 (Hinault, LeMond, Fignon)? -- to find a comparable stage-racing team.

Problems: Not sure Bruyneel thinks of this as a problem, but he is Belgian so perhaps some bone in his body feels the lack of cobbled classic success. Maybe having Lance ride for Vaitkus in the Tour of Flanders will make magic, but frankly while Vaitkus will be in the mix, the chances of Astana cutting through the crowd of Quick Step, Silence, Lampre, CSC... Also, Assan Bazayev can't win a lot of sprints on his own. Sometimes in these previews it may seem like I'm preaching for well-rounded teams, like when Quick Step wins a couple races in April and disappears for the rest of the year. In fact, Astana are one of the world's top scoring teams based on their stage racing alone, so I guess the concept of "problems" is all relative.

Key Rider: It's all so clearly scripted that picking out a guy who could make things turn out better than expected isn't very easy, but I'll say Brajkovic. None of the other big names have breakout potential; they are what they are. Brajkovic, meanwhile, is perhaps just coming into his own: 26 years old, coming off his best season with a late-season peak that got him second at Lombardia, arguably the best result of his career. His early glory at the Vuelta, when he briefly took the lead in 2006, got him pegged as a grand tour rider, and his improvement against the watch speaks well of his future in stage racing. But on this team, he can afford to pick his spots. He's got to be gunning for September and October again, if he can excel at Lombardia he'll love Mendrisio.

Key Moment(s): Champs-Elysees. Seriously, aren't you dying to know exactly how many podium places they take?

Passing Thought: Lance is 37. So's Horner. Levi is 35. Kloden is 33. If Bruyneel is thinking beyond this year, as he must be, then this is Contador's team, lock, stock and barrel. From the outside it looks like there are two different teams, a young, slick climber powerhouse led by AC and Jani, and another squad that looks like groupies from a Stones concert. The latter are pretty cool in their own way, and may yet change the way we view age in sport. But a better bet is on Contador and Jani.

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More from Podium Cafe

Astana for the Giro

May 2009 by Chris... - 34 comments

Interview: Astana's Jani Brajkovic

Apr 2009 by lyne - 45 comments

Comments

Display:

random thoughts

- Speaking of Lombardia, I hope that Brajkovic and Horner can do that teamwork thingy that they showed in Italy in the Ardennes. The more teams there with serious chances the better.
- And, yep, it seems a shame that Bazayev and Vaitkus could lead a serious cobbles squad but don’t. It sure seems like these two guys could get better results in Belgium than they are getting.
-And I’m still wondering if Levi races the Giro. I’d like to see a serious Levi and a serious Cadel contesting Basso there.

by ursula on Feb 2, 2009 2:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I will say this once and for all

Levi is an idiot if he doesn’t go for the win in the Giro!

This is his big shot. He’s never going anywhere in the Tour with LA and Bert both there. The Vuelta is a longshot because Bert will be there, either to compensate for a Tour-loss or to keep up his 2 GT / year average. Either way he’s not going to accept any in-team-competition. Bruyneel will get the message “keep baldy off my back or I’m signing for another team”, after all the No 1 stageracer in the world should only have to put up with so much.

Levi is never going to find a GT parcours better suited to him outside France than this years Giro. Also the Centennary Giro will be more prestigeous than any other so even if you are only mildly interested in a Giro-win, this one is the one to go for.

You have to figure that at the Giro Lance is either, 1. not yet at peak form, 2. keeping his powder dry for the Tour or 3. just too old. Personally I believe in alt. no. 2, a decent showing and some waving of the Livestrong-flag is what he’s aiming at.

So Levi: Aim for victory in glorious , “nearsighted old lady knitting”-style on the streets of Rome.

by Jens on Feb 2, 2009 3:12 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

I hope he doens't

Don’t like the guy.. (Just personal) But the problem with Leipheimer is pressure.. The podiumplaces where all as helper.. The 2001 he wasn’t and did he a good job.. (Imagine all the Spanish guys in 2001 as Oscar Sevilla) But that’s ages ago.. So maybe he can win the Giro if you look to his physical power but his mental.. Doubtfull.

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Feb 2, 2009 5:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2001 levi rode in support of heras...

knocked heras off the podium in the final time trial

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Feb 2, 2009 6:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What Jens said

This year’s Giro is by far the best chance Levi will ever get to win a Grand Tour.

by ursula on Feb 2, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

small correction, Levi has 3 GT podiums,

(-01 Vuelta 3rd, -07 Tour 3rd, -08 Vuelta 2nd)

I agree with Jens, I hope he goes for the win in the Giro.

by Bruce Suomi on Feb 2, 2009 4:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

ah yes

forgot about that old one…

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Klöden

I wonder what he can do this year. Last year he was a little unlucky here and there but he did not appear to make a true effort to rise in the team hierarchy. Somehow he seems to like the super-domestique well.

by Lopex on Feb 2, 2009 5:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

klodi will focus on T-A, romandie, and the vuelta

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Feb 2, 2009 7:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

Klodi will be a protected rider at the Vuelta.

by ursula on Feb 2, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha! There is no way he will not end up riding for Bert by week 2

as Jens said in his blabbering in depth analysis of Levi above, Bert is doing the Vuelta no doubt, unless he gets hurt. The thing is perfect for him and he can’t go saying that he’s too old to do 2 GT’s if his 38 year old teammate just did. He will either be looking to salvage his season after an embarrassment at the Tour or looking to make his name even more so legendary.

"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt

by Phil H. on Feb 2, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i never said klodi would be the protected rider for the vuelta...

he likes riding support….

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Feb 2, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not you

Ursula said it. But he’s just doing VDS sandbagging.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

J'accuse Moi?

I feel soooo bad.

by ursula on Feb 2, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no need to feel bad,

Klodi will be a protected rider in the Vuelta, until he crashes…
He is a German version of the bubble boy, with much better results though..

I have him on my team, so I hope he avoids sickness and crashes this year….

by Bruce Suomi on Feb 2, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just make sure that Drew didn't pick him. :-P

"The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed."

by nikki on Feb 4, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Still undecided

on whether – as a Lance fan boy – to get an Astana shirt – I still prefer the Disco / Postal kit .

I’d love to see LA target the Giro and then openly commit to being a super domestique for AC at the TdF – that would be class

formerly known as cyclingchallenge

by Willj on Feb 2, 2009 7:25 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The consensus is they make for great pajamas (maybe more so in 2007)

So you could go for Disco/Postal daytime and Astana nighttime.

by Jens on Feb 2, 2009 7:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Or perhaps, if Lance should win the Giro,

you could get an Astana special edition maglia rosa? If powder pink is your colour. I have a Liquigas ciclamino one from last year ;-)

by Albertina on Feb 2, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i've got a signed contador one...

but i ain’t giving that away for love or money…

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Feb 2, 2009 9:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

today

“I’m not going crazy over logging hours on the bike”
http://www.albertocontador.es/prensa.detalle.php?id=76

by lucybears on Feb 2, 2009 8:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

In case anyone's looking...

…in the VeloNews excerpt from this interview they left out two important syllables. Contador said he didn’t want to overdo it in training now because this will be a long season. VeloNews left out the “over” part of overdo. They made it look like Contador is lazy or something, and doesn’t want to do intensity work.

You can compare the version cited above by lucybears with VeloNews at:
http://www.velonews.com/article/87168/alberto-contador-heads-to-california-for-pre-atoc-astana

It’s a good thing VeloNews is not the State Department.

by Steno on Feb 2, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Or

even the highway department. OTOH, he just said he wasn’t going crazy, not that he wasn’t logging hours.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

reference team

La Vie Claire 86 . . .

Final gc:

1. Greg Lemond, LVC
2. Bernard Hinault, LVC

4. Andy Hampsten, LVC

7. Nikki Ruttiman, LVC

12. JF Bernard, LVC

by R Mc on Feb 2, 2009 9:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Heh

Hopefully Astana’s ride will be a little more peaceful. Though the kid beating the famous old guy sounds about right.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well . . .

I should have included at least one more:

23. Steve Bauer LVC

by R Mc on Feb 2, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It'll be written on his tombstone:

Steve Bauer: He just couldn’t keep up.

by ursula on Feb 2, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nah, he was strong as an ox that guy.

But had a hard time when the climbs were longer than a few km…he was stocky-built. But def a very strong guy and loyal teammate that would go to the wall. Had a chance to win the worlds a couple of times. Flatted once in 89 Worlds finale after bridging to leaders, had a run-in with Criq in the World’s sprint one year too, but was in there fighting for it in a lot of hard races.

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

forget not

his by a cm loss to planckaert in Roubaix.

Great rider, he was.

by R Mc on Feb 3, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha +1 (When I got it after half an hour.. ugh)

Some say the best things in life, are one the inside.

by Frinking on Feb 2, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Steve Bauer

ahhh a Canadian that has held the yellow jersey!!

I have seen him running Alps biking Tours during the Tour de France

formerly known as cyclingchallenge

by Willj on Feb 3, 2009 5:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree w/ Willj

I’m looking forward to seeing LA ride for the others as a GT SuperDomestique, be it Levi or Alberto. I think that’d be pretty interesting to watch. And looking at his relaxed demeanor these days, I think he’d probably enjoy it, which you couldn’t say about him a few years ago.

I never thought Levi’s issue was his head; I’ve always believed that even as strong as he is, he just simply cannot handle the biggest accellerations on the climbs in the GT finales and key stages. Sort of like Cadel. Needs it to be steady and hard. But I agree with Jens above that a Giro win could be possible for him this year more than any other.

I’d be surprised if Astana had any real serious focus on the Ardennes races. It’s a GT team all the way.

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Levi

is oddly realistic. Most guys you’d think were just sandbagging, but in his case no.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point.

Also have to remember how tiny the guy really is. SMALL. Amazing that he wins TT’s and podiums at GT’s at all. There aren’t many, and have rarely ever been, guys that small who regularly ride such strong TT’s, (Charly Mottet was one….a real TT monster, but ironically had big limits as a climber). In that sense, I consider him a bit of an overachiever even though he has not closed the deal on the biggest races. I get the feeling he sees himself that way too. Realistically, as you said.

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brajkovic

Along similar lines… 115 pounds? And he’s going top ten at the worlds ITT? Is he two-dimensional, like one of those walking leaf bugs?

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One thing Levi has that's similar to Jani... leverage.

When I saw Levi in person at the US Pro championships in Greenville, one of the first things that jumped out at me was the disproportionately long femur on the guy. It immediately registered to me that this is where the guy has the ability to power ride the way he does.

by sminer on Feb 2, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is how you can tell a hardcore fan

They walk up to riders and ask if they can measure their femurs. How do you sneak that into casual conversation?

by Jens on Feb 2, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You'd have better luck Albertina,

if you didn’t tell them to drop their bibs first.

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Feb 4, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The court mandated restraining order

was a prime give away.

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Feb 5, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, you know what they say

about the size of one’s femur…

no, seriously. Do you?

by itswells on Feb 2, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've never asked that!

Have asked other things though :-)

We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950

by CycleGirl on Feb 4, 2009 2:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

Amazing. Power-to-weight and invisible to the wind! DZ is like that too although a bit heavier. I think.

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oops, I was talking about Jani.

I can see his long femur but I never noticed that Levi has a long femur, I’ll go look! I have always thought he sits too low on the bike by about 1 or 1.5 cm, but hell who am I to say.

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

“The #1 stageracer in the world should only have to put up with so much”. Why Contador didn’t nix the LA deal or move on is a bit of a mystery to me. Unless he has a guarantee that LA won’t be challenging him in the TDF, and I doubt that agreement exists, and if it does, is it trustworthy? What’s the upside of this deal for him? Learn from the master? Maybe, except that their plans for training together are minimal. They seem to be keeping their distance from eachother. Is it to take pressure off of him? Seems to me there is more pressure on him. He would receive less press if he wasn’t on a team with LA. I mean, it’s the elephant in the room! The downside: His rank within the team is questioned, his coach who should be completely focused on victory for him is already torn and distracted. He’ll have to put up with browbeating by the old alpha dog. On the other hand, maybe it shows an enormous amount of confidence on his part. I mean, if he can just go out and kick LA’s ass, then things will fall into place soon enough.

by pdxjc on Feb 2, 2009 6:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

No mystery. Contador made noises about leaving...

and this is what Bruyneel said:

I have invested a lot of my time into Alberto’s development and he will remain with this team for the next two years. Actually, it’s pretty simple – there’s a contract and there are no options to leave.

Google is my domestique.

by majope on Feb 2, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep, too bad he didn't leave and sign with CdE as was a rumored possibility

I so want to see him riding a Pinarello Prince, and finally Valverde would be forced to give up his Tour hopes and fully focus on the classics, and maybe the Vuelta. Well it could still happen.

"If you go (with a break), you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win."
~ Jens Voigt

by Phil H. on Feb 2, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ja, huge, huge, huge cash

to get out of that contract. huge.

by gavia on Feb 2, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ahhh

Thanks for the clarification. Must be frustrating for him. I think Bruyneel will need to play his cards very carefully if he doesn’t want to lose him 2 yrs from now when he can jump ship. And I hope LA will be generous with the kid. It may yet all work out, but the potential for ill will seems high.

by pdxjc on Feb 2, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The competition will make Contador even better than he is.

And I think that’s the plan. I dunno why people think this is a bad thing for Contador. It’s good that he will be extra motivated. Think Johann doesn’t know this? This is how ALL OF SPORTS WORKS. Remember?

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hm

interesting theory, the internal competition. IMHO Contador wins it hands down, and anyway Astana have enough top domestiques to staff two of the strongest teams in the race. But I’d venture a wild guess that the plan is to say really nice things about Contador until it appears he can’t keep up with Lance… a day that will probably never come.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I watched that breakaway with LA and Bobridge at the TDU

And it suddenly hit me that LA isn’t out to win ANYTHING thing time around. He’s doing two things: Being a carrot for the younger guys, and raising money for the cancer stuff.

The development team effort is further evidence of this for me.

Yes Contador would win the battle. But I think Johann and LA both know this, and knows that he needs to be battle-hardened and matured, to have the long successful career he should indeed have. Call me crazy but really this is coaching 101 in all of “team sports”. And in thoroughbred horse-racing too!

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh

Hopefully Lance will be a bit more subtle than Hinault.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris... on Feb 2, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lol

Nothing subtle about Hinault, even today! Love that guy. Warrior.

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is it time

to repost this pic of “subtle” Hinault?

by Katiek on Feb 3, 2009 6:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The link didn't work for me

but I hope it was the pic of him pushing the protester dood off the TdF podium!

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 3, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

why yes it was

If you’ve tried hitting refresh, then I have no other suggestions on how to make the pic appear.

by Katiek on Feb 3, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure what LA did at TDU in Jan. foretells anything about France in July

Well, interesting theory that LA isn’t in it to win. It’s possible you’re right, but you are proposing that he has transcended the mindset he has shown throughout his life. Maybe, maybe not. I’m not sure he’s capable of not trying to murder the competition in France. And I’m not 100% sure that he can’t win either. And if he can win, I just can’t see him choosing not to. That is not the mentality of a champion like him. I think Hinault found himself conflicted just like that. As for the idea that competition makes you better, yes, of course it does. But there is certainly no need for that competition to come from within your own team. That’s just distracting. But you have a beautiful theory. I hope you’re right.

by pdxjc on Feb 2, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's just a hunch, that's all. He's older now and I see change in his mindset. Could be wrong.

But I do know that in all high-level team sports, in every team, everywhere, you have to get pushed from within your own team too. No such thing as “I’m here I’m the best nothing can make me better”. Any coach who lets that happen is in the wrong business, in my dorkus humblus opinion.

"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."

by Rolls on Feb 2, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Can you tell at this time of year

even in the middle of his seven, Lance used to turn up and not compete at lots of early season races.

by Monty. on Feb 3, 2009 9:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Right on Rolls...

In house competition works.

by sminer on Feb 2, 2009 10:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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