MSR: Team Tactics Thread
Let's not call this a power poll, since we do enough of those and they are intended to track changes. This is a one-time semi-ranking of the teams headed to Milano-Sanremo, and a preview of the various cards (sprinters, classics guys, etc) that each DS is holding.
[Aside: be sure to check out this UK site devoted exclusively to La Classicissima (MSR).] Anyway, starting from the top:
Quick Step: The favorites. So many weapons, and as I've harped on before, Boonen's ability to attack like the classics hard-guys AND finish off a sprint sets all their other plans in motion. Outside of a big bunch sprint, he is the single most dangerous person in the race, which in turn forces teams to take their chances letting Chavanel or Barredo go. Allan Davis could very well win out of the bunch (though in fact he has very little history in big classics)(ed: except two years ago, when he finished second in a big classic. Called Milano-San something or other).
Everyone else... on the flip:
Serramenti: Oy, where to start? Rebellin is the captain, and other than a couple top-20s his fourth last year was his first real result in MSR. But he clearly has goals he wants to realize while he still can, and looked very sharp last week. A sexier pick might be Scarponi, but like Armstrong he'd have to be more or less alone in those last two kilometers. Francesco Ginanni is awfully young, though he has shown a knack for winning out of a group of highly select classics guys. Alessandro Bertollini lit up the Poggio last year. They've even got Leonardo Moser on hand for genetic gravitas.
Cervelo Test Team: Clear favorites to do something. Haussler's flying, Thor is the kind of survivor who can win here, Klier has four finishes in the top 21, etc. There is nobody on the roster who you'd point to and say "that guy can't lose in the right conditions," but everyone brings something to the table. If the race is bunched up just enough so that team tactics matter, you can write them onto the podium someplace.
LPR: Two favorites of very different stripes, Alessandro Petacchi and Danilo DiLuca. OK, the latter is a longshot with the rest of the Ardennes types, and La Manie may sap Petacchi's resources and ruin his finale, but I wouldn't take any bets against him. We know he can wind it up in KM 298... albeit on the Via Roma, if not this year's finishing strip. Anyway, they have a stable of guys used to setting up Peta (Ongarato) and DiLuca (Bosisio, Pietropolli). Nobody will be sleeping on LPR.
Katusha: Filippo Pozzato is an almost perfect rider for this event, which explains why he got a win and a second place before his 27th birthday. Other than napping on [or being powerless to stop] Cancellara's escape last year, Pippo outsprinted the elite chase group, proving for the second time that he can turn on the jets in km 298. He seems a little down this year, but if his head is on straight and he's in position, Pippo could turn those fortunes around in a hurry.
Lampre: I can't tell you how completely depressed I am that Alessandro Ballan won't be there, riding near the front of the pack over the Poggio in his world champion's kit. He wouldn't have been much more than a dark horse, but there are certain protocols in cycling, and one of them is wearing the champions' kits in your home country's greatest events. [His Flanders absence... let's not go there.] Anyway, the team leadership duties fall instead to Mirco Lorenzetto and Enrico Gasparotto, two dynamic riders off the B-list of favorites. Mirco took fifth here last year in his second try; Gasparotto 12th in his second effort. Both are riding very well. So while we won't see the rainbow, look for some flashes of pink on the Poggio, for sure.
Columbia-High Road: All eyes will be on Cavendish, but if/when that doesn't pan out, the potential last-second plans revert to George Hincapie, Maxime Monfort, Thomas Lovkvist, and maybe Mark Renshaw or Edvald Boasson-Hagen. This isn't likely their day, but sheesh... Do they ever bring less than an all-star lineup for a race?
Liquigas: There's something about this lineup that I don't like. Yes, Bennati is an obvious sprint fave, with the quality to get in position too. But Basso? He brings nothing to this kind of race. Pellizotti? Murilo Fischer? I don't know why they are here and not Quinziato. I suppose there's hoping Nibali can ride in heroically, but that's a long shot. To me this team looks like a bunch of guys getting in their miles and hoping Bennati can do it, maybe in tandem with Nibali. This team hasn't shown much of a plan so far this year.
ISD: Lots of eyes on Giovanni Visconti, who does the kind of things that work on a course like this, but he has no history of riding for himself here, so he's an unknown. Oddly enough, Dario Cioni hasn't been here much either, despite his lineage (sorta) and a decade of work starting back at Mapei. Oscar Gatto time, anyone?
Silence-Lotto: One of the best trio of captains in the race, after QSI and Cervelo. Gilbert is the kind of aggressor you'd look for in a unique race as this. Thomas Dekker has a big enough engine, and after running 15th in the T-A time trial he's starting to wake up. [Although my faint memory asks, does he have bike handling issues?] Greg Van Avermaet can win from a bunch, theoretically at least. The more I write this, the less convinced I become. Moving on...
Acqua e Sapone: Luca Paolini has gotten himself onto the podium twice, which makes him an excellent secret weapon when Garzelli attacks on the Poggio to draw off attention. So simple, no?
Milram: Sending out Gerald Ciolek as captain is no more suspect than relying on Cavendish or Tyler Farrar to win in a sprint. Can't rule it out. Wouldn't bet much on it.
Saxo Bank: Hm, MSR isn't really a race to put six decent guys on the front and wear everyone out. First, your six guys are probably pretty worn out themselves after six hours. Secondly, making people tired won't help you get down the Poggio. Since I'm dissing them, you can start betting on Breschel or Arvesen for the win, but I don't see a very good match.
AG2R: Don't overlook Rinaldo Nocentini, who rolled in with first chase group last year. They're thin for a contending team, but that didn't matter before.
Garmin-Slipstream: I already touted Farrar, who in turn touted Dean, so I give up. They're another team with no hangers-on, like Cervelo, but less of a chance of making the finale. Still, you can't rule it out (I will not be talked down here).
Rabobank: I don't smell a win here. Replacing Freire with Tom Leezer is to their detriment, and the remaining squad of Flecha, Langeveld, Nuyens and Posthuma looks an awful lot like guys getting ready for their more natural environs, starting next week.
Euskaltel: Can't overlook seeing Landaluze in the mix last year, but otherwise they're hoping to spring Koldo Fernandez out of the pack. It's too bad Sammy Sanchez isn't here, I see him as the heir to the Savoldelli skillset: legendary descending, solid climbing, ability to solo, and Sanchez (unlike Savoldelli) can finish off a sprint occasionally. Think about his Olympic triumph: a bombing descent to a short finale (sorta flat) with a small group sprint. Wouldn't this play very well at MSR? Obviously there are great dissimilarities between the courses, but his fellow medalists were Rebellin and Cancellara -- first and fourth at MSR last year. Ah well, he doesn't listen to me...
As for the rest...
Astana: Lance was 11th in 1996! Jaro-Pop has lots of high finishes, making him a very useful lieutenant to Captain Lance. Should be interesting anyway.
Barloworld: Plan A, B, C and Z: get Hunter to the sprint. The track record isn't great.
Bbox Bweeg: A ship without a captain, now that the crafty resourceful Voeckler is home with a clavicle.
Caisse d'Epargne: Lots of big names -- LuLu, J-Rod, JJ Rojas Gil, Kiryienka -- though nobody with a history here. File under "vaguely interesting".
Ceramica Flaminia: Rossi should appear in the bunch sprint, very respectable 21st in his debut last year. Vlad Duma the resident hammerhead. Remind me again what Simeoni does well? Besides get under Lance's skin?
Cofidis: Tourists. My pick for first foreign team to make it home after the race. A heavy favorite, actually.
Fuji-Servetto: How do you tell Eros Capecchi from Ermanno Capelli? Hm, Capecchi seems to have longer hair, but that's about it. Fortunately, you won't be troubled by such questions at any time Saturday.
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39 comments
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Comments
ISD
Visconti went out the back on the Poggio last year. Maybe he’s older and wiser now. Gatto, I do like that kid, but probably too long for him just yet. Top ten would be a nice result.
Also, Davis has made the podium at this race in the past. I’m forgetting what year. And I’m too lazy to look it up at the moment ;-)
by gavia on Mar 19, 2009 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2007
No longer that I call them tights, I call them freedom ware.
by TheFigurehead on Mar 19, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Er
missed that. Something wrong with my coffee today…
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Mar 19, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+ Boonen is making comments all over the place
how glad he is that Davis and Chavanel will be doing nothing, nothing, nothing but supporting him in this race. Sounds more like “I’m getting older and will not put up with lieutenants with their own agendas anymore” than setting up a surprise-attack.
Did your favourite rider just win Montepaschi Strade Bianch Eroica Toscana? OK then.
by Jens on Mar 19, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
he’s been very clever (or passive, or generous) about letting his lt’s steal the show occasionally, but he has to really want this one now. You never know if you’re getting another chance, even at his age, and he’s got a great chance now.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Mar 19, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
Good job.
"....Up Sestriere on a rental clunker in jeans and loafers? Brother, lemme buy you a beer."
by Rolls on Mar 19, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dekker?
Someone with better knowledge of obscure Euro races is going to have to look over Dekker’s results on CQ to tell me if he can do MSR. He’s won some stages at Romandie & Switzerland, but I can’t remember him winning anything similar to MSR (late hill followed by sprint finish). He seems like the prototypical Ardennes wannabe to me, kinda like if Basso went after Fleche.
by Softie on Mar 19, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lombardia?
Didn’t win there in 2007, but did come in 8th. After his early-season injuries, I don’t think he’s in shape to win, but he could provide good help to Gilbert or Van Avermaet.
Bennati went but I was able to get past him quite easily.--Mark Cavendish, Tirreno-Adriatico Stage 7
by majope on Mar 19, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not completely fit
I don’t suspect to see him in the front line on the poggio.
by Lopex on Mar 20, 2009 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
si...
I think he’s a possible for a hilly classic like the Ardennes or Lombardia, but he doesn’t have an especially fast finish. If he could get away in a small group, I think he’d still get owned at the finish. He could probably outsprint someone like Schleck, but not someone like Cunego, if that makes sense. His talents look to me more like short stages races and potentially grand tours – he has a big engine, but not a ton of speed.
I’d call Cunego a long-shot to win Milano-Sanremo before he retires, but not someone like Dekker. It requires a ton of speed to escape on the Poggio, silly bike handling – and ideally a compact body – to get down the descent. Then, you have to win the sprint at the line, because it’s rare to get there solo. Not likely for Dekker.
Wait for the Ardennes :-)
by gavia on Mar 19, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
looking
for big attacks from Serramenti. About Rabo totally agree with you.
by semprenaroda on Mar 19, 2009 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ja
I’d expect Scarponi to try on the Cipressa to keep things fast and difficult for the sprinters. Rebellin goes on the Poggio again, natch. It’s his only chance to win.
by gavia on Mar 19, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Many targets, but Rebellin will have one of THE biggest targets on him on the Poggio
He won’t get far at all without powerful chasers galore jumping on his wheel. I expect and hope for small breakaway groups and individuals all over the final 10k, certainly no bunch sprint.
by sminer on Mar 19, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting article in VN...
saying Cav is working with Zabel, and plans to target MSR, Roubaix etc., in the future, but is riding for experience this year.
The Zabel connection is what is new, and shows that Cav is quite serious about becoming more than a stage hunter.
by Ed K on Mar 19, 2009 7:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Allan Davis
and in the top 20 in M-SR 2006 & 2005
by lucybears on Mar 19, 2009 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hm
Either the CQ ranking let me down, or it’s just epic fail on my part.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Mar 19, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, not really
The podium placing is one worth remembering, but top 20s? Eh, not so much for a sprinter. A top 20 at the Tour de France for a young rider is an important result. A top 20 for a sprinter, not so much, even if it is a major classic.
by gavia on Mar 20, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will be rooting my ass off for Boonen...
to get left sitting in a chase group while other individuals are flying off the front to seize the podium spots.
by sminer on Mar 19, 2009 9:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
kind of my thoughts too
I’m over Boonen in the same way others are over that guy from Texas that wants to end cancer
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
by natbla on Mar 20, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
couple of teams where the tactics could be interesting ...
as in, which rider will end up as the “leader” when there are several possibilities. Obviously Quick-Step is one with Boonen, Chavanel, Davis … Katusha could be another as McEwen would really like to win MSR, whether he’s past the time of his best chance or not is the question and it seemed in recent articles as though he seemed somewhat resigned to having Pozzato as the team leader unless something happens. Cervelo too could be interesting, with Haussler on such a hot streak yet he seemed to have deferred to Hushovd for MSR in some interviews, the Velonews interview with Henk Vogels today was interesting in that he picks Haussler for MSR:
VN: What about Milan-San Remo? What’s your pick there?
HV: I think (Cervélo’s) Heinrich Haussler could win. He’s a long shot, but he looks good. Then there’s Bennati, and Boonen …
VN: So you’re taking Haussler over his teammate, Thor Hushovd?
HV: Yeah, I reckon Haussler. I think Hushovd will spend his energy later in the classics season.
(of note, Vogels also picks Rollin, his former teammate at Toyota-United last year, as a wildcard for the Paris-Roubaix podium)
by guidemd on Mar 19, 2009 9:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Unibet team odds
Team Quick Step – 4.50
Team Liquigas – 5.00
Team LPR Brakes – 5.50
Team Katusha – 6.50
Team Lampre – 8.00
Team Cervelo Test Team – 8.50
Team Silence-Lotto – 8.50
Team Columbia – 9.00
Team Saxo Bank – 14.00
Team Rabobank – 17.00
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
by Hons on Mar 20, 2009 12:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
huh?
Do they just not rate conti teams?? I don’t see how Serramenti isn’t on the list and Rabo is. Of course, LPR is there, so I guess it’s just unimaginative rating. Unibet deserves a good fleecing.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Mar 20, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i guess they figure Flecha has more of a chance than Rebellin, and Petacchi has better chances than both of them. And they barely consider the Euskies pack fill. This was my first time poking my nose around there. And they have a bunch of weird comps over there.
Armstrong, L [1.57] vs Karpets [2.25], V (Best finishing position)
Or
Elmiger, M [1.78] vs Geslin, A [1.92] (Best finishing position)
It goes on:
Nationality of the winner (Italians have the best odds)
Difference between the 1st and 2nd rider (+- 1sec)
as well as over all winner. Did you know that Lance has the same chance of winning as Koldo Fernandez (100:1)?
So many ways to lose your money…so little time.
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
by Hons on Mar 20, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If there is a break, even if only a short distance up the road.
Will teams be reluctant to run it down if it means that they will also be towing Boonen or Cavendish? With dominant sprinters like we have seen in the peloton I think a break during the final kilometers has a very good chance to succeed because teams seem to be racing not to lose.
(Now that I’ve said that I think the sprinters teams will work very hard to keep it together and It’ll be a mass sprint.)
Speed on the descent can easily be lost when you slam into a tree.
by flying dog on Mar 20, 2009 6:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Your right, Quinzi should be here for Leaky.
I can’t see Basso and Nibali etc being a great help to Benna in this kind of race. Quinziato’s engine would be very welcome on this sort of course. Oh well. Vai Benna anyway!
by Albertina on Mar 20, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Vai Benna!
I’d expect to see Nibali in a break in the finale. Basso? Smiling for the cameras and getting in some training.
Perhaps Quinzi is not yet on form? He does seem like a natch for this race.
by gavia on Mar 20, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I don't object to seeing Basso smiling....not a bit of it!
As long as he remembers that he has a very important job to do! ;-)
by Albertina on Mar 20, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes looking good for the cameras haha
Just so we can update our Hottitude pics :-) actually this is o al the Liquigas team, Smiles and hair a plenty
We don't stop playing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop playing.
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
by CycleGirl on Mar 21, 2009 4:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FDJ
Whoops. Not that there was anything to say about them…
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Mar 20, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lol
Alas for Madiot. None of us even noticed.
They’ll be in the early break and maybe figure in a doomed move from the Cipressa. Can’t see much else for them at this race, but haven’t exactly looked at their roster for the day.
by gavia on Mar 20, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guesdon is there
but since it’s a long 300km race he may just die of old age before they reach Sanremo.
Did your favourite rider just win Montepaschi Strade Bianch Eroica Toscana? OK then.
by Jens on Mar 20, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
l'ouch ;-)
Here’s there starting roster according to l’equipe:
Mickaël Chérel (FRA), Anthony Geslin (FRA), Yauheni Hutarovich (BLR), Christophe Le Mével (FRA), Yoann Offredo (FRA), Benoît Vaugrenard (FRA), Wesley Sulzberger (AUS).
Geslin is their sprinter.
I don’t see Guesdon on this list. Startlists, meh.
by gavia on Mar 20, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to say that cyclingfever is usually the most reliable one
What’s up on their list is usually updated with the latest changes. When they have no info they leave blanks.
(the Guesdon info came from feltet.dk, cyclingfever has your list)
Did your favourite rider just win Montepaschi Strade Bianch Eroica Toscana? OK then.
by Jens on Mar 20, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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