Season Long Power Poll #3: Eve of Flanders Edition
by ursula on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
in News
32 comments
Sunday night. Got my popcorn. Got my nutritional yeast on it. Got my Full Sail ale. Might need a couple Full Sail's because how does one balance Brabant Arrow results with Castilla y Leon? Milan-Sanremo with Criterium International? E3 with Coppi and Bartali and DDV? Enough dithering. Here's the last poll and below the numbers in parentheses is the ranking from PP #2. On to the Poll!
[Chris here...] Don't confuse this with the Cobbles Poll; Ursula's polling all teams on the entire season.
1. (3) Columbia ↑
2. (1) Quickstep ↓
Before writing this I fully expected to keep Quickstep first. So why the change? As strong as Quickstep is on the cobbles, even with Chavanel's nice showing at Paris-Nice, they haven't won a big race. They have wins at K-B-K, DDV, Qatar, and TDU along with a 2nd at E3, a 4th at MSR, 3rd at Paris-Nice, etc. etc. etc. Many top 10's. If you count up the VDS points, they have more (1908) than anyone. I can understand if someone else puts them #1.
In contrast, Columbia has by far the biggest win this year -MSR. Including all their stage wins they have more 1sts than Quickstep and are a close second in VDS points with 1865. They earned those points from 15 different riders (QS has nine riders earning their points.) Finally, Columbia's climby team (Lovkvist, Rogers, Siutsou) is better than QS even with Kirchen injured.
Still, it's close and if Quickstep had won one any of the bigger races of the year thus far they would still be #1. But MSR went to Columbia. E3, Katusha. Het Nieuwsblad is Cervelo's. Paris-Nice is Caisse d'Epargne's. KBK, DDV, Qatar, and TDU are lesser races. Quickstep needs a big win. I understand that there are some big wins available in the next couple of weeks.
On the flip are the other teams.
The top two teams are a cut above the next three who are also of a tight group:
3. (3) Cervelo ↔
Their 2-3 finish at MSR keep them ahead of the next two teams. But I do wonder if that race might be their high point of the year. Haussler's being treated like a ping pong ball at the hands of Quickstep at DDV was not good. Florencio's finish at Brabant Arrow was meh. The team has Thor but needs Hammond, Klier, Hunt, etc. to be more supportive at the end of the races. Maybe they are saving those guys a bit and hopefully they'll prove me wrong. I can;t imagine them not being present and active at the front of the remaining cobbles races, but can will they podium is a question for me now. Otherwise Sastre is an unsurprising no show. Expect him to be seen in May.
4. (5) Astana ↑
The one-two at Castilla y Leon was joined by an unexpected 3rd at E3 and 9th at MSR to nudge them ahead of Rabobank. Looking ahead, yes, they'll do well at Pais Vasco, but I am most interested to see them in the rest of the cobbles races. They got some strong riders (Vaitkus, Bazayev, Iglinsky, Rast) and could be a dark horse team. A win would be a shock but a podium...
5. (2) Rabobank ↓
Good showing at Castilla y Leon: Clement 4th, Menchov 5th, Ten Dam 11th. Their stage racing team, even without incorporating Gesink yet looks like it works well together. Interesting how they've developed now boy Clement, who appears to me to be making a jump in ability in his climbing skills. Climby + chrono = success in stage races and he could become a real factor in another year or two. But where's Bobo Gesink? Rabo's plans for him is basically to take over the Thomas Dekker Memorial Ardennes Chair and he's being groomed for just that. Pais Vasco always includes lots of very steep medium-length climbs so maybe we'll start to se him there.
Back to the rankings though. I dropped them below Cervelo and Astana because their only win lately- Graeme "Heckuva Job" Brown at Nokere Koerse- was a lesser race and they have been noticeably quieter as a team since the cobbles races resumed after MSR. They too need a (bigger) win on the cobbles and time is getting short. Posthuma's defending his D d Panne title this week.
------------------------------
Below Rabobank is another big gap leads us to...
6. (11) Saxo Bank ↑
Jens! defending his Criterium International crown had to be a morale boost for a team that's so used to winning races until this year and that win pushes them up the rankings. Weather they can hold, gain, or lose in the next two weeks is way up in the air. Cancellara is theoretically back for Flanders where he'll join a lonely Karsten Kroon. Meanwhile Saxo is fielding what looks like their Ardennes team at Pais Vasco- but will it compete for the win or just use it for yet more training?
7. (12) Katusha ↑
Pippo's E3 win earns them this spot, along with Unibrow's (Napolitano) stage win at the dead Italian racers stage race (Coppi e Bartali)- his 3rd win of the year. The team has seen signs of life from McEwen and Dehaes but zip from Steegmans, who should be a Pozzato's main cobbles ally but who now has sciatica (pain in lower back radiating down the leg). Colom will lead their A-team in stage races at Pais Vasco, his first race since Paris-Nice.
8. (18) Milram ↑
Surprise! Yeah I didn't expect to see the blue cows here either but they keep getting results, if not outright wins. Even without Ciolek, they've been getting decent showings from Wegmann, Knees, Gerdemann, Peter Velits, and Terpstra. And looking ahead at the startlists in both Belgium and the Basque country, one can imagine them being competitive at both places. Ciolek's back. Wegmann is defending his crown at Big Mig (he's won it twice) and the Pais Vasco squad looks decent.
9. (8) Caisse d'Epargne ↓
And the Valverde/CONI cage match goes on. CONI is now a couple of weeks late in it's promise to deliver a verdict on Valverde. What could be holding them up? Dunno but meanwhile Valverde decided to race to two stage wins at Castilla y Leon and will race again at Big Mig- but not Pais Vasco where Lulu Sanchez gets the captaincy. All is very quiet on the Cobbles front for this team.
10. (10) Francaise des Jeux ↔
Geslin's Brabant Arrow win keeps them in 10th and #1 in France. Probably won't hold this place but they do have a decent team of stage hunters that will keep them in the news for the year.
11. (4) Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni ↓
This fall in the rankings (4th to 11th) is not quite as far as it seems as teams 6-14 are all fairly close to one another. They drop because the main race they were in, Coppi e Bartali, they did little. This week finds this team concentrating on the Settimana Ciclistica Lombardia where they, LPR, Barloworld, Ceramica, ISD, and Tinkoff Katusha are all bringing serious squads in this Ardennes practice.
12. (9) Garmin ↓
Danny Pate- 3rd in Criterium International: nice! Dave Zabriskie- 3rd in Castilla y Leon: also nice! I see Farrar on the Flanders startlist. Could he be ready by then?
13. (7) Liquigas ↓
Meh. Nothing much since the last poll. Got their fast team at de Panne this week, including this guy:
14. (24) Lampre ↑
Happy Puppy shows signs of life! He'll get more chances with a heavy Basque dance card. Meanwhile can Spilak salvage some pride by himself at the Cobbles?
15. Silence Lotto ↑
As Happy Puppy goes so goes... what's Evans' dog's name? Mario? Scruffy? Puddles? La Rue? FYI- Coppi e Bartali last year witnessed Cadel's first signs of life too so I figure he's right on track. Gilbert and Dekker meanwhile...
Hmm. So this year has gotten past the first races and now we are seeing some patterns in the teams. Specifically I am looking to see if riders who changed teams have gotten better or worse. Haussler has certainly benefited from new management and in general Cervelo looks like a well-managed team, one of the best in fact. Stef Clement seems to be benefiting from a move to Rabobank and as I've said I like Rabobank's stage management so far. Milram in general seems stronger. Katusha seems like a fairly well managed team though the jury is still out.
On the down side is *Lotto, particularly their cobbles team. Biggest disappointment of the year.
16. (27) Euskaltel ↑
Aitor Galdos. Never heard of him. 7th at MSR. He and Klodo Fernandez will be their Flanders leaders. Meanwhile Samu scored a first in his return from injury at something called GP Llodio yesterday. Basque week is coming up which is kinda big for them.
17. (26) AG2R ↑
The Poor Man's Astana.
-----------------------------------
From here on out:
Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate.
You have been warned.
18. (13) Acqua & Sapone ↓
Quiet. They'll be at Lombardia this week but I don;t expect much from them until May.
19. (17) LPR ↑
No Ardennes. What will they do? Giro.
20. (28) Ceramica Flaminia ↑
Enrico Rossi. Almost 27. 8th at MSR. 7th, 8th, and 3rd at the first three stages at Tirreno-Adriatico. 2nd at GP dell'Insubria. 3rd at Trofeo Laigueglia. Kid's a factor in Italian sprints. Why don't you have him on your VDS squad?
21. (16) Liberty Seguros ↓
So far the best Iberian-based Continental team. Interestingly they won;t be at the three Basque races.
22. (23) ISD ↑
Visconti's showing some life. Not sure about the rest of 'em.
23. (14) Skil Shimano ↓
24. (15) BBox ↓
Voeckler's still hurt so Trophy Mom has to carry the load. No, that's not a good thing.
25. (29) Fuji Servetto ↑
Cobo sighting!
So.. kinda obvious that there's not much from here on down, right?
26. (--) Sean Kelly
Eeck!
27. (21) Vacansoleil ↓
Next year...
28. Andalucia - Cajasur
29. Landbouwkrediet - Colnago
30. Agritubel
31. (20) Cofidis ↓
The worst Pro-Tour team.
32. (19) Xacobeo-Galicia ↓
They'll be in Spain and Italy this week.
33. (22) CSF ↓
34. Miche - Silver Cross
35. Besson Chaussures - Sojasun
36. Burgos Monumental - Castilla y Leon
37. Amica Chips
38. Rock Racing
Midway through their Tour of the Iberian Peninsula. They've done Castilla y Leon and GP Llodio. Next stop Volta ao Alentejo. I wonder what Hamilton, Mancebo, Pena, etc. think of this? No, they aren't invited to Basque week.
39. Andorra Grandvlira
40. (30) Contentpolis - Ampo ↓
41. (25) Topsport Vlaanderen ↓
42. (31) Barloworld ↓
I'm hoping that this bottom of the peloton ranking will light something under Soler and/or Hunter. They really need a good result this week in Lombardy.
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Wow
Top 42? Now that’s a poll…
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Mar 30, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Steephill has Kirchen returning from injury at the Pais Vasco
as team leader (or at least wearing 91 for Columbia)
by ZoeRochelle on Mar 30, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh. That would be very good if so.
Cycling Fever doesn’t have him- yet. There’s an open spot though.
by ursula on Mar 30, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I so heart me some power polls :-)
The Ardennes should help Lampre, since Happy Puppy (ha!) is looking great in terms of form at the moment. Rabobank, they could so use an Ardennes win also.
Milram, meh. How could they have gotten two dudes in the break at Brabantse, and not won? I feel a tactics talk coming on…
by gavia on Mar 30, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gesink was really struggling on the Bruine Put
to get to the wheel of Breschel, who was in a much higher gear (well, perhaps “normal” and Gesink was on the little coffee grinder) and looked to be going pretty easy. ‘Abandon’ 1.5 laps later. Paul Martens on the other hand had a super day and was everywhere but way too early because of a pre-determined helper role. Not a good day for the bank.
by tedvdw on Mar 30, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was surprised by that
Geskink, I mean. He looked like he was barely hanging on what should be his ideal terrain. Dropped by Breschel on a climb? Uh-oh.
by gavia on Mar 30, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll emphatically make the QS argument.
Quickstep has made every cobbled race I’ve followed. They reel out and pull back time gaps on a whim. They were second twice in Belgium this weekend, and completely manhandled Columbia-Highroad. No CHR riders got into the winning moves, no CHR-driven chases came close to bringing them back.
If the Boonen/Pozzatto coin toss comes up tails instead of heads, and Pineau shuts the gate on Geslin, it’s a runaway QS win. Two chance second-places make them less worthy? It’s true, MSR has been the biggest race this season, and was a convincing Highroad win, but what is this—a results poll? If it’s about power, QS has my vote.
-Cosmo
http://cyclocosm.com
Head down, elbows out since 2005
by Cosmo on Mar 30, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Results = Power
I was totally on your side before I wrote this post. They are definitely the dominant team in Belgium. But they have to finish what they start and in the biggest races so far other teams are taking advantage of their- can I possibly be writing this?- weakness in finishing. Geslin beats Pineau. Pozzato beats Boonen. Cavendish beats Boonen/Davis. Hushovd beats Boonen. Van Impe beating Eeckhout doesn’t balance the equation. Not does Boonen beating Eisel. TDU is increasingly ancient history. Boonen may have won Qatar but Cav beat him twice. Seems like Boonen is becoming Cavendish’s favorite drum in fact.
Then you got all the smaller stage wins and TT finishes that Columbia excels in and which balance out the smaller cobbles wins that Quickstep does get.
In this case I agree with Cycling Quotient: Columbia and Quickstep are cut above the rest of the teams right now and there’s very little difference bewteen them, but that difference says Columbia.
Quickstep now has three races that are right in their wheelhouse: de Panne, Flanders, Paris-Roubaix. They could sweep them all and be the obvious #1. They could win just one and still be #1, depending on how things work out. Or Cavendish could defy expectations and win again. Or Hincapie. And Columbia could be a major player at Pais Vasco where even if Kirchen is still recovering, as having Lovkvist, Rogers, and friends is way better than what Quickstep is bringing.
It says here that the next two weeks determine if Quickstep has a successful season or not.
by ursula on Mar 30, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitions
This poll is broader than just the cobbles poll. I think I’ll add a note above to make this clear. QSI lead the cobbles poll, but that’s it.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Mar 30, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vacansoleil
You’re being too rough on them. It is a team with a lot of new names. Leukemans did pretty well in the Brabantse Pijl. It is a pity Baden Cooke is still feeling the damage from some virus infection. And they did pretty good in De Ronde van het Groene Hart. If Baden Cooke would have been there they’d won it.
CSF will shine when my big hope for VDS domination Mauro Finetto will amaze the world in 3D de Panne.
Speaking of panne. Did you know that in Dutch having ‘panne’ means having a mechanical? Funny name for a race, eh?
by Lopex on Mar 30, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: vacansoleil
Yeah I probably am being too hard on them. I do expect them to move up.
by ursula on Mar 30, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to prove my confidence
I put Leukemans in second in Chris’s Ronde Forecast Poll.
by Lopex on Mar 31, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
'Panne'
May be borrowed from the French depannage…or en panne…broken down…
by bradBordeaux on Mar 31, 2009 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cav calls it The Three Days of Bread
by Albertina on Mar 31, 2009 4:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In reference to De Panne as in the race...
Yes, I believe they have (panne/pain (bread) ) derive from the same old Frisian cognate. Referring to Lopex’s comment on mechanicals…it is here that i referred to the usage of ‘panne’ possibly borrowed from the French
by bradBordeaux on Mar 31, 2009 5:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hooray for Euskaltel, up 9 places!
And you’ve never heard of Aitor Galdos?! For shame ursula, for shame.
by Albertina on Mar 30, 2009 6:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And I don't like that pic of Benna...not his best!
by Albertina on Mar 30, 2009 6:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No.. How bout a nice pic instead Albertina..
"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"
Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009
by CycleGirl on Mar 30, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ohhh I like that shot..
I’m so going to get autographs for all the girls… Here Benna, need to sign all these since you are our Hottitude man for the year..hahaha PdC ladies think very highly of you… ohh and you can ride great too ..hahaha
"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"
Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009
by CycleGirl on Mar 31, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cofidis.........really THE worst
Hey, I’m no big fan of Cofidis…..but they’ve won more races than Silence-Lotto.
by bradBordeaux on Mar 31, 2009 3:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And Cofidis aren't even ProTour anymore are they?
(which makes the non-snorers look even worse.)
Did your favourite rider just win Montepaschi Strade Bianch Eroica Toscana? OK then.
by Jens on Mar 31, 2009 5:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did they not become pro tour again at the last minute or am I getting confused?
by Albertina on Mar 31, 2009 5:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right you are
they are on the UCI list. I completely missed that.
Did your favourite rider just win Montepaschi Strade Bianch Eroica Toscana? OK then.
by Jens on Mar 31, 2009 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in GP Lodio
i saw a guy from RR had a nasty crash and was in a breakaway, i think was Oscar Sevilha…
by semprenaroda on Mar 31, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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