10 Years of Paris-Roubaix Results Analyzed

Thinking about the Post-PR thread and the what we learned on the cobbles thread, I worked up some historical stats from Paris-Roubaix for us to mull over. I grabbed the finishing places for certain favorites from 2000-2009. Then I calculated how many times they finished, their average finish (does not include dnf/dns), and a few other things.
The riders are ranked by order of their average finish, which I think sums things up quite well. This ranking probably slights Ballan and others who would have scored better for dropping out rather than finishing w/ the main group, but you can see the number of finishes and the number of podiums to help balance that out.
What I learned: Flecha deserves more props, Guesdon and Knaven were much more impressive than I gave them credit for, and Tom really does deserve a place in history with DeVlaeminck, Van Looey, Merckx, and Museeuw. Also, Hincapie has earned a place in history, if he were Belgian, he'd be a national hero.
Alternately, view it here:
The Spreadsheet is shared here. It would be cool if more info were added for riders such as Zabel, Wesseman, Hoffman, or anyone else that I'm neglecting. I mined the data from: http://www.the-sports.org/cycling-paris-roubaix-2009-results-men-s2-c0-b0-g22-t43-u255-m59190-v1.html.
*Edit: I've added another column for podiums-per-finish which is another useful way to rank PR success. Results:
- Johan Museeuw .6 podiums per finish
- (tie)Tom Boonen & Peter Van Petegem .5 podiums per finish
- Juan Antonio Flecha .4 podiums per finish
- Fabien Cancellara .33 podiums per finish
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51 comments
Comments
Love it
This is exactly what my “let’s all mess around with statistical analysis” gambit was meant to encourage. I’d add, the average placing number is too easily warped in the bad-luck years. But the podium rate: surely this means something. Quite a lot, I’d say, especially in a race like PR where top placings are always earned.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Apr 13, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm back I'm back!!!
I had the most amazing time ever. Wow.
by Albertina on Apr 13, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And
we expect full pics and descriptions. Glad you had fun, as if there was much choice?
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Apr 13, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tomorrow ;-)
I need to go to bed, like now. Had breakfast with CycleGirl in Gent this morning, then spent ages cycling around Oudenaarde (and failed to get up the Koppenberg without walking…which was to be expected) then had a very long winded journey back to London….knackered! My pics are on Facebook so have a look Chris!
by Albertina on Apr 13, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The data needs to go back further in time.
Guesdon’s win isn’t even recognized and doesn’t affect his average. Museeuw raced P-R before 2000 and won once before than too, so his final numbers would be different. Van Petey has similar circumstances to Museeuw.
I understand that going back further can become a vicious cycle because where do we stop? But at least for the guys on your spreadsheet, all the data should be there or its skewed.
by brunopitton on Apr 13, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Where to stop
I agree more data is better, for historical perspective. But just testing the current crop of riders, the older data worries me because of the likelihood those pre-Puerto results can’t be trusted.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Apr 13, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your right there but if your going by pre-Puerto (when it actually hit in 2006)
You only have 3 races essentially because then you could call everything into contention.
by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 13, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
so I tend to be a little more lenient going back to about Festina. Anything from 1992-98 I really can’t take seriously.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on Apr 13, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
darn...
some of those seemed to be the best races.
by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 14, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Museeuw claimed he didn't use EPO until the year before he retired.
So his included results are semi-tainted.
by brunopitton on Apr 14, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Time to hire a full-time cycling statistician around here?
Mon coeur appartient à les forçats de la route.
by Josenka on Apr 13, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
75% of the people here are too busy to do it and the remaining 33% aren't interested in the job.
I can do it however.
by Jens on Apr 14, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
As your alter-ego
I endorse this action on my/your behalf.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Apr 14, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ja, that didn't work
I never saw that snuggie so I gave up pretending to be you. I’m now pretending to be Leif Hoste hoping someone will send me a pity-snuggie to correct all the wrongs the world has commited against me.
by Jens on Apr 14, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you'd stop \o/ about it for a second, maybe someone one send you a snuggie
"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."
Tom Boonen
by Drew... on Apr 14, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A My Little Pony!
Mon coeur appartient à les forçats de la route.
by Josenka on Apr 14, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, ok - and a pony too
Christ, Scandanavians are sooo high maintenance.
"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."
Tom Boonen
by Drew... on Apr 15, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah well
Now I’m stuck with trying to grow a beard and find an accordion for my picture with the snuggie.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Apr 14, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget
The flattering crown of flowers!
by Lopex on Apr 15, 2009 4:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would do it in a heartbeat...
seeing as I don’t have any classwork and no job…
by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 14, 2009 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you,
but I think the past decade is as good a range as any. I didn’t intend to include De Peet or Museeuw, but since they rode for half the period, I think they make a nice comparison to the guys who rode the 2nd half of the decade.
Just keep in mind this isn’t a measure of the riders’ career performance, just a snapshot of the decade. OTOH, the spreadsheet is shared and I’ve included a good source of data, so feel free to add more data to the comparison.
Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste
by Koppenberg on Apr 13, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think 10 years is a perfect snapshot of time.
You do not want your data pool too large as it begins to loose relevance once it reaches a certain size.
Maybe this could be done more often?
The Ardennes Classics would be cool.
by Ryan_Liles on Apr 13, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, leaving out data makes it meaningless
Arbitrarily cutting off all results before 2000 severely limits the meaning of this ranking. You could still use some sort of cut-off: for example take all podium finishers from the same 2000-2009 period but incluse all their results. Call it ‘Recent Contendahs.’ And yes, it could grow out of hand; this needs to be computerised! I’ll see if I can make some time.
by tedvdw on Apr 14, 2009 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nicely done
I love “podiums per finish” as a stat
formerly known as cyclingchallenge
by Willj on Apr 14, 2009 2:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
after more thought
Podiums per START
would be also interesting
formerly known as cyclingchallenge
by Willj on Apr 14, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I altered the shared file to include all P-R the riders have done.
Nothing changed that much, except Van Pete is not as awesome as we may have all thought. His podiums/finish and Top 10’s/finish dropped.
Servais Knaven finished every race he started except for one year, that’s 14 completed P-R’s.
George is still good but it took him a while to figure out the game.
Museeuw’s results shocked the hell out of me. He completed the race 14 times with 10 top 10’s and 6 podiums. The first time he raced it he got 12th. He was definitely made to race cobbles. If he says we should ride flax bikes I think we should listen to him
As we all know, Boonen is set to become the next Mr. Paris-Roubaix, because he’s clearly the Lion of Flanders already. If he continues on this trend, he’ll have more podiums and top 10’s then Museeuw recorded.
I might go back and include De Vlaeminck’s numbers just to give us a reference point.
by brunopitton on Apr 14, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I added De Vlaeminck.
He’s phenomenal: 13 finishes all in the Top 10 and 9 podiums. He was head and shoulders above the rest. Boonen may be the Lion of Flanders but he’s got some big shoes to fill before he’s the next Mr. Paris-Roubaix.
And I’m done with the numbers now.
by brunopitton on Apr 14, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
De Vlaeminck supposedly said something similar
Haven’t found the original source, Feltet says it Sportwereld but I couldn’t find the article. Anyway, De Vlaeminck said something like “Yeah, yeah, Boonen is great, but he haven’t won T-A, MSR and LBL. And now he is going to have a rest, what about the Ardennes?”
Oh my, I've just fallen in love with Roger De Vlaeminck's sideburns.
by TheFigurehead on Apr 14, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
Ronde and Roubaix are for the softies?
Gotta be kidding me!
by Bruce Suomi on Apr 14, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, that's not what I mean
I’m talking about de Vlaeminck winning every one-day race in sight.
Although, let’s face it, P-R is kinda soft. ;)
by plinytheelder on Apr 14, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
to be fair though
when’s the last time we saw the likes of Valverde or Rebellin on the cobbles (much less a Contador or Sastre)? Others have pointed out that the sport seems to be increasingly specialized. I’d love it if a TdF or LBL winner could contest PR (or vice versa), but that sort of thing seems to be a thing of the past.
When was the last time a single rider won both PR & LBL (and I don’t mean in the same year)? The last rider I can think of who won both was Sean Kelly. Anyone since then? When for that matter, was the last time a single rider won PR and a grand tour (again, not necessarily in the same year)? Again, the last I can think of is Sean Kelly. Anyone since him?
by Le Comte on Apr 14, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But as Sean Kelly said himself
LBL was easier or different back then. There were ~17 km to the finish from the last climb. So without a finishing climb, you get a sprint of some sort.
by brunopitton on Apr 14, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
De Vlamick was back in the day where everybody raced everything
From Etoille de Bessage to Lombardia and not many of them were specializing and ramping up the fitness for one certain event in which we see today.
To answer a few questions:
The last guy to win PR and LBL in the SAME year was Sean Kelly…he is also the last rider to do it all together…The last rider before him to win both in the same year was Merckx…The last rider to win both in different years was Hinault (P-R in 1981 and LBL ’77 and ’80)
The last rider to win PR and a grand tour(not the same year) was Kelly (vuelta 88’ and P-R in 84 and 86)…Last rider to podium in P-R and had won a grand tour was Fignon when he scored 3rd in P-R in ’88….Last rider to Win a GT and P-R in the same season was Hinault in 1981 when he won the Tour de France….Moser also won a GT and P-R when he won the Giro in 1984 and P-R three times from 78-80.
Also Kelly is the last rider to win Liege and Roubaix in the Same season and then go onto win a Grand Tour. Hinault was the last rider to win both Liege and Roubaix and win the Tour.
Also the last rider to podium at both P-R and Liege was Dirk de Wolf. He was second in Roubaix in 1989 and won Liege in 1992.
Looking at the startlist, only one rider in the whole race has podiumed at a grand tour, Popovych, from when he podiumed the 2002 giro with Landbouwkredit. He is also the only man on the starting list to get a top 10 in a grand tour and start P-R this year.
So unless a New Merckx or Hinault comes along and starts to race Spring Classics and GT and win them…not many of the guys you see up front in July will be hitting the cobbles.
by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 14, 2009 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Will there's Devolder...............never mind
but I see HH is leading Cervelo in Amstel Gold, so he maybe a guy who could win on the cobbles and the Ardennes.
First place in monuments so soooooo overrated, 2nd is were it's at.
by Phil H. on Apr 14, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that a recent list?
Thought I read HH was going on vacation after P-R. But I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he kept going instead.
"Sean Kelly? Sorry, I am not so good with cycling history. I just want to race." --Edvald Boasson Hagen
by majope on Apr 14, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Official startlist I think
and for now, all the startlists I have looked at have him on it. He’s also doing the Schelde tomorrow so maybe the vacay won’t start until late April.
First place in monuments so soooooo overrated, 2nd is were it's at.
by Phil H. on Apr 14, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
jesh i hope he is done after amstel...
he is on the offical startlist but i think he will just be playing a team role for others on the squad.
by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 14, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either that
or he’ll crush it and win ;-)
by Le Comte on Apr 14, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, that dude is incredibly talented,
and is one guy I could definitely imagine winning both cobbled and hilly classics.
by plinytheelder on Apr 14, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe what the Grand Tours need are cobble stages for a little innovation!
Hehehe, it would totally mess with the usual GC. Throw in a Cyclocross and Mountain Bike stage or two and then people can discuss best “overall” rider.
Mon coeur appartient à les forçats de la route.
by Josenka on Apr 14, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The TdF did go over some cobbles a few years ago
I can’t now remember what sector or sectors they went over, but I think it was only about a couple sectors and certainly nothing like the Trouee, but I seem to recall them pretty much ruining Iban Mayo’s chances before they saw the first mountain. MIght that have been 2004? I think I’ll have to look that up…
by Le Comte on Apr 14, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The cobbles were covered in the blood of many climbers that day.
Skinny little guys were bouncing all over the rain slicked roads.
The carnage was so bad, Phil could hardly speak.
I think they should go through there every year.
It was glorious.
by Ryan_Liles on Apr 15, 2009 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Famous cobble stage
Is the third stage in the TdF of 1973. Luis Ocaña laid the basis for his tour win in that year in a stage starting from Roubaix. He and 4 team mates got themselves in a breakaway group of 11 and gained 2½ minutes on the peloton with the favorites in it.
by Lopex on Apr 15, 2009 4:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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