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Around SBN: Lance Berkman Could Have Torn ACL

10 Years of Amstel Gold

Inspired by Koppenberg, I drew up a spreadsheet of Amstel Gold finishes for the past 10 years. I was looking for consistency as well as upper-tier results, and ended up with a list of 21 riders who have (A) finished in the top 20 at least 3 times in the past 10 years, and (B) with at least one finish being in the top 10.

I sorted them by number of top 10 results per attempt rather than by finish. Obviously, a DNF isn't always the rider's choice, but I do feel the guys who finish their races consistently should end up higher in the rankings than the ones who don't.

No surprise that the King of Amstel is Michael Boogerd, who in 9 attempts finished in the top 10 every single time, hitting the podium an amazing 78 percent of the time.

Who comes in second? Damn, what's his name? You know--that guy who never cared about any race except the Tour...

Of current riders, Rebellin and Di Luca are head and shoulders above the others--but see for yourself on the flip.

Star-divide

Here's the list, sorted by number of top 10s per attempt:

Michael Boogerd    1.00
Lance Armstrong    0.80
Davide Rebellin    0.70
Danilo Di Luca    0.67
Peter Van Petegem 0.67
Frank Schleck    0.50
Stefan Schumacher 0.50
Paolo Bettini    0.50
Oscar Freire 0.50
Matthias Kessler 0.43
Alejandro Valverde 0.40
Michele Bartoli    0.40
Serguei Ivanov    0.40
Erik Dekker    0.33
Markus Zberg     0.30
Thomas Dekker   0.25
Erik Zabel    0.22
Steffen Wesemann 0.14
Igor Astarloa    0.13

If you sort it by top 10s per finishes, it comes out like this:

Michael Boogerd    1.00
Danilo Di Luca    1.00
Lance Armstrong    0.80
Davide Rebellin    0.78
Peter Van Petegem 0.67
Frank Schleck    0.50
Stefan Schumacher  0.50
Alejandro Valverde 0.50
Erik Dekker    0.50
Paolo Bettini    0.50
Oscar Freire 0.50
Serguei Ivanov    0.44
Markus Zberg     0.43
Matthias Kessler 0.43
Michele Bartoli    0.40
Erik Zabel    0.25
Thomas Dekker  0.25
Igor Astarloa    0.17
Steffen Wesemann 0.14

Note that Di Luca is now equal with Boogerd, in that he had 4 top 10s in 4 finishes. But it took him 6 attempts to get those 4 finishes, so I think the first list is just that much more fair. But both are on the linked spreadsheet, so you can look and play with results as you please.

However you sort it, Lance Armstrong is right up there. Top 10s per attempt? He's second. Top 10s per finish? Third. Podium places per attempt? Third. Same for podium places per finish. Guy deserves credit where it's due.

The spreadsheet also includes podium finishes per attempt and per finish. I don't have a column for average placing, though, because I don't find it that useful (feel free to add it if you like). For instance, Frank Schleck's average placing in Amstel Gold is 46th, which completely obscures the fact that he won the race, came in 2nd, and has another top 10 result. He just had a pretty steep learning curve, finishing 100th, 66th, and 97th in his first 3 attempts.

All the data for the spreadsheet came from the cyclingnews archive. If a rider was on the start list for the race but not in the results, I counted him as a DNF--but recognize that CN may not have reported the full standings for every edition of the race.

 

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Great post! well done

As an aside, how about an analysis of results by nationality in the French, Belgium and Dutch one day classics.

My Flemish (Belgian of course) cycling partner has been like a kid during Christmas as we watched the recent one day classics – especially Flanders and Paris Roubaix.

When I asked him about Amstel …. “not so interesting”

I laughed long and hard.

formerly known as cyclingchallenge

by Willj on Apr 14, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Well it certainly has less history

But the relentless hills (more up & down than LBL), open spaces at the top, the twisting and turning; it makes for a very interesting course. The World Championships have been on more or less the same course 4 times: 1938, 1948, 1979, 1998. That should add a little to its prestige, I think.

by tedvdw on Apr 14, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just meant ....

My Belgian friend was being snobbish about a Dutch race ;)

formerly known as cyclingchallenge

by Willj on Apr 14, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know, I know

Is he still open to rational arguments? :)

by tedvdw on Apr 14, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

absolutely not ;)

formerly known as cyclingchallenge

by Willj on Apr 14, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

Reminds me of the episode in the Coyle book about the Belgian mechanics on Discovery threatening to quit when they found out the TT bike was made in Holland.

CQRanking.com, you complete me.

by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 14, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

trust me , my (nice guy) Belgian friend would argue that the strike threat was valid due to safety concerns ;)

formerly known as cyclingchallenge

by Willj on Apr 14, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

funny :-)

I always like this race. Lots of technical roads and usually some fun tactical gamesmanship in the finale.

by Jen See on Apr 14, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let down

By no TV coverage this year. Great race and I am sad to miss it.

by australopithecine on Apr 14, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions  

that's what live streaming is all about.

http://www.cyclingfans.com/live_race_coverage should be high up in your bookmarks. Admittedly, you’ll probably have to watch it with Dutch commentary but other than that you should be ok (hopefully, there won’t be any georestrictions).

by Le Comte on Apr 14, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

NOS is usually open

In the past, NOS has had open feed. Not sure if that’s still true. LOL, watched the Tour there one year.

by Jen See on Apr 14, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've been able to get the last 2 weekend races with English and French commentary respectively.

Seems like it’s kind of luck of the draw with cyclingfans…which to me makes it all the more enjoyable!

by plinytheelder on Apr 14, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes, it seems almost certain

that this race will be available somewhere for US people

formerly known as cyclingchallenge

by Willj on Apr 14, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't record

streaming video and my racing takes precedent. I would love to watch and chat about on here but our state Crit is Sunday. Thanks for the link though.

by australopithecine on Apr 14, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

you've got mail

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Apr 14, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

the person that wins this race....

don’t expect them to win a grand tour….

it has only happened twice and the two that did it were Merckx and Hinault

by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 14, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Sadly, this is the one big weekend race this spring

that I won’t be able to see. In fact I’ve never seen it. It will have to wait another year I guess.

by plinytheelder on Apr 14, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions  

So

Is it paranoid to think that the live links were being shut down for PR because of a certain online vendor that frequents the cafe?

by jsallee00 on Apr 15, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well

It’s possible. In the past, they have been very aggressive about shutting stuff down and pulling youtube links. Lately, it seems to have mellowed out in that direction, but hard to say.

Me, I tend to be wary of posting anything here that could get pulled, and if I see viddy up somewhere, I make sure to watch it pronto before it disappears. Chatting offline about alternatives is sometimes also the better call.

Guess I’m a little paranoid too ;-)

by Jen See on Apr 15, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would doubt they'd bother to search threads for links here

when the same links are grouped together neatly on the sites we all get them from.

"Sean Kelly? Sorry, I am not so good with cycling history. I just want to race." --Edvald Boasson Hagen

by majope on Apr 15, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, that is paranoid. But is it paranoid *enough*?

I wouldn’t worry too terribly much. There are a couple of clearinghouse sites for streaming links and if the arsehats in charge of IP at the-company-that-shall-not-be-named-but-here’s-a-hint-they-hate-their-customers aren’t bright enough to check there first, they are not able to find their, er, “hats” with both hands.

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Apr 15, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

And if they are behind shutting down the links (wherever they find them)

I think it’s both irritating for us and pointless for them. I, for one, am not going to be inspired to sign up for a pay service until they build a good track record of providing the races they advertise in a consistent and reliable way. In the meantime, since I’m without a good source for live viewing where I live, I’m going to continue to look for alternatives in other countries.

"Sean Kelly? Sorry, I am not so good with cycling history. I just want to race." --Edvald Boasson Hagen

by majope on Apr 15, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

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