Thor Hushovd: Does he stand a chance?

The title says it all, except that it's a rider profile.  Chris' poll of potential winners was so generous to exclude Mr. Hushovd based on his previous results in RVV and P-R.  But on the same poll other riders, with lesser classics' results were included.  Chris wasn't too far off since Unibet gives him 30:1 odds, similiar to Kroon, Klier and Langeveld.  In this post I'm going to try to evaluate his actual chance of winning the next Monument.

Why he might win RVV. 

Previous results of note.

RVV: 14th in '06

G-W: 5th in '05, 1st in '06, 11th in '07, 15th in '08

P-R: 17th in '04, 9th in '06

I won't forget 1st in '09 Gent-Gent. (I know he only won because of a crash but it shows he wasn't aiming for top form yet.)

There are some very good results in the cobbled classics which show he could be a contender.

Strong Team Support

He has a very stong supporting cast including: Haussler (who's form is diminishing IMHO), Hammond, Klier, and Rollin.  Two are podium finishers in a cobble classic and Rollin is a big strong guy.  Nothing needs to be said about Haussler's breakout season. 

If Hushovd is team leader, there are a lot of strong experienced guys to get him to the front on or before the hellingen.  Either way, this is much better support than available at Credit Agricole where he was when he collected his previous results.

Confidence

I read an interview with Hushovd in Velonews a couple of times last night just to make sure I was in the know.  The majority of what he says is that you need experience to win MSR, RVV, or P-R because the races are so demanding mentally.  You also need stamina and endurance because the length of said races.  He believes that at his age, he has developed both these to the point where he may win a Monument.

Why he might not win RVV.

Previous results of note.

RVV: 14th in '06

G-W: 1st in '06, 5th in '05, 11th in '07, 15th in '08

P-R: 17th in '04, 9th in '06

1st in '09 Gent-Gent (I couldn't find a single rider in recent years who's won RVV in the same year that  they won Gent-Gent .  So this is a point against him.)

Good results in P-R and RVV but nothing stellar.  No top five's or podiums but for most mortals, finishing both is pretty good.  G-W is a different animal.  One cobbled climb done twice (versus 17, not all cobbled, in the Rhonde) and no where close to 50 km of pave like P-R has.

Strength of other teams.

Does much need to be said about Quickstep's cobble strength?  We all know Rabobank has what it takes, if it works right.  Columbia is looking good too, youth and experience.  Silence-Lotto has a couple contenders.  Katushans are okay.  And it doesn't necessarily take a whole team to get 1st in a single race, it helps but not always the deciding factor.

Confidence isn't everything.

Confidence is good but you need to know how to follow the winning move and be in the position to do just that.  They say you can teach race tactics but some riders are just better at reading the race, I've heard this of Pozzato.  Hushovd will have to read the race like a librarian to be in the right move.

Summary

Unibet is up against him but I'm not.  I hope he gets his Monument this weekend.  Maybe he's like Tinkerbell, we all just need to believe in him and he'll pull it off.  Hopefully, he has the confidence to get to the front, the experience to follow the right move once he's there, and the power to make it all work after 259.7 kms.