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Paris-Roubaix: Mean Time Between Failures

An engineer once told me that bicycles are designed to withstand some enormous number of vibration cycles before failure, with each cycle being the equivalent of riding over a cobble.  Something like a half million or a million cycles.  The engineer then told me that the design spec amounted to about 25km of cobbles. 

Paris-Roubaix has 53km of cobblestones.

Not surprising, then, that the Queen of the Classics played host to the strangest mechanical ever---Hincapie's broken steerer tube.  And we can pretty much count on one contender being taken out by a mechanical Sunday.  So I've created a poll so that the Cafe can weigh in on what will happen this year, with parenthetical examples of memorable mechanicals from the past. 

Poll
What will be the memorable mechanical failure of Paris-Roubaix 2009?
Broken Steerer Tube (George)
12 votes
Broken Chain (Spartacus RVV)
6 votes
Frame Failure
6 votes
Broken Seat/Seatpost
17 votes
Wheel disaster, non-tire related
42 votes
A plague of punctures afflicting one individual or team (Phonak '04 TDF)
11 votes
Broken handlebars/stem
6 votes
Rear derailleur (Boonen/Hoste)
9 votes
Someone Else's Loose Bottle Cage (Kemmelberg)
6 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 50 comments

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Comments

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Surely the broken steerer tube isn’t the strangest mechanical ever?

by plinytheelder on Apr 9, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

sorry, I don’t seem to know how to talk today – everything coming out of my mouth (or off my fingertips) seems to be caustic. What I meant was, it would be interesting to look back over the history of P-R, I bet there are some other really bizarre mechanicals, I don’t know anything about the history of the race but the inventory of mechanicals that have occurred there is probably really interesting.

by plinytheelder on Apr 9, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm all about the loose bottle cage

Sounds like a great way to go. Sort of like Spinal Tap’s drummer choking on someone else’s vomit.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Apr 9, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comment of the week nominee

"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten

by Hons on Apr 9, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think spontaneous combustion should have been a choice

Dozens of people spontaneously combust each year. It just doesn’t go widely reported.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Apr 9, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

please -

nothing bad for george
nothing bad for george
nothing bad for george

by cg. on Apr 9, 2009 11:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As flies to wanton boys, are we to the gods.

They break our steerer tubes for their sport.

"Sean Kelly? Sorry, I am not so good with cycling history. I just want to race." --Edvald Boasson Hagen

by majope on Apr 9, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wheel Issues

Did not George have wheel issues last year (2008), about the time that the pre-winning move went up the road (Boonen, Fabian, Ballan, Stuey, Maaskant)?

by Yossarian12 on Apr 9, 2009 12:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, he had a tire or wheel issue. I remember him standing at the side of the road

looking exasperated while waiting for the team car, my shattered dreams on the ground next to him.

by ZoeRochelle on Apr 9, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

its very easy to get emotional over these things at 5:30 am having already watched

90 minutes of racing, alone, in the dark, on a Sunday morning, on only 4 hours of sleep.

by ZoeRochelle on Apr 9, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of the reasons I'd like to see George eventually win it is

to put Zoe’s mind at ease. I remember last year’s thread – you were almost as anguished as he was. I didn’t know who to feel worse for.

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Apr 9, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but not quite to the same degree as Backstedt

Now, I really, really LOVE my 808s, but whoever convinced Maggie that slamming an 81mm carbon rim into cobbles at 55+kph would be a good idea . . . well . . . we know how that turned out.

by R Mc on Apr 9, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you said as much on the live thread last year :-)

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Apr 9, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's exactly right

As he was last year

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Apr 9, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the cycles to failure wasn't important until aluminum and carbon fiber became popular

If I rember rightly, steel only fails if something catasrophic happens, that is, something above a certain threshold. The newer materials do fail after a finite number of cycles, so they have a life span even for mere recreational riders.

Or my memory is failing and steel behaves that way, as well.

I vote for wheel (non-tire).

by pigilito on Apr 9, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think that's right

there is a comment to this effect in this article on the steel Willier Ballan rode in the 2006 edition of the race — steel bends, it doesn’t snap, so a rider might be able to keep going on a damaged frame.

Viva la Lactique

by nrs5000 on Apr 9, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

so the BMC team will also be testing new bikes - are they asking for trouble?

“BMC will have half its crew riding the classic full carbon ProMachine SLC01 over the Roubaix cobbles, while four other members will be testing the new SLX model.”

read more here

by lyne on Apr 9, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Testing new stuff during P-R

Now there is formula for success…

More Muur...

by Jimbo... on Apr 9, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm guessing the guys with no chance of finishing for BMC

will be on the new bikes.

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Apr 9, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They might as well do *something* with the afternoon

It’s not like we expect to see any of them in the main group after Arrenberg.

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Apr 9, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The broken seat thing

happened to Jens!, but I think that was during the TdF, not P-R

More Muur...

by Jimbo... on Apr 9, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

happened to him on the

Champs Elysees, if memory serves me

Viva la Lactique

by nrs5000 on Apr 9, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I picked a wheel issues but it

won’t be Mavic reflex or anything by Ambrosio.

Guys are pushing the limits of carbon wheels. Hopefully not the wider 303’s that I was gushing over earlier in the week.

by Mr Van P on Apr 9, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

Why anyone thinks carbon at PR is anything other than an expensive way to lose is beyond me.

by Ed K on Apr 9, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The 303s

were my inspiration for the poll. I used to ride on cobbles pretty frequently until I had a spectacular wipeout on them, and I cannot imagine subjecting a carbon wheelset to high-speed cobble duty.

But if you’re a pro, and someone gives you wind tunnel results with a 20-watt savings, you might gamble on having the set of 303s that makes it to the end without detonating. They’d be a sacrifice wheelset, but hey, Paris-Roubaix is well worth a Mass . . .

by Softie on Apr 9, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my choice is missing: fork

someone’s going to go for weight or comfort and regret it.

by JFS_PGH on Apr 9, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Time to repaint the Leader MX w/ the cro-mo battleship forks

to match the new team’s colors!

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Apr 9, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Inspired by you lot

I took my lunchtime ride up and down a few cobbled hills. Just enough to remind me that it’s better experienced as a spectator.

by Sui Juris on Apr 9, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

lol

I remember riding the one up to Georgetown, near the Key Bridge. Gah.

by gavia on Apr 9, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a dangerous place to ride

The odds of getting hit by a stray latte or iPod touch are astronomical. I’ll take the Arenberg, thank you very much.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Apr 9, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait a Minute

Are we supposed to pick the failure we think will occur, or the failure we’d really love to witness?

There is a difference.

"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill"
-- Fausto Coppi

by TCWriter on Apr 10, 2009 1:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As in

Hennie Kuiper making a comeback, suffering a complete frame, wheel, fork + steerer breakdown in the Arenberg, fighting his way back , catching and passing the leaders on Carrefour de’l Arbre and soloing to victory?

by Jens on Apr 10, 2009 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no - that was way too pedestrian

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Apr 10, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

just because

Jens forgot to mention the part when Hennie welds his frame back together in the blacksmith’s shop out back behind the Bar du Carrefour

Viva la Lactique

by nrs5000 on Apr 11, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok - now that's a story

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Apr 11, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pedestrian?

As in: person who walks around carrying his bike on his shoulder?

by Jens on Apr 10, 2009 9:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As in - boring. Like a flat, southern stage of the Vuelta

Actually, I was just tweaking you to see if I could draw out TC Writer. I know he’ll be around tomorrow :-)

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Apr 11, 2009 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Leave the Vuelta Alone!"

(sorry, I’ve just been looking for a reason to re-use Sui’s Post of the Year)

by Jens on Apr 11, 2009 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You just had to go and do that, didn't you.

No negotiations, just straight to the nuclear option, eh Jens?

What’s become of diplomacy on this site?

"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."

Tom Boonen

by Drew... on Apr 11, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Breaking chain

Isn’t that a hilly kind of mechanical? Rider is stuck in a gear that is too heavy and tries to push through?

by Lopex on Apr 10, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Chain suck

On the cobbles – or other random bumpy terrain – the chain can get stuck between the chainstay and the crankset. Breakage is often the result. Happens especially if it’s muddy.

by gavia on Apr 10, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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