Michael Barry's Interesting Observation

by Markk on May 23, 2009 8:56 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

"It's faster Now". Michael Barry has a diary on Velonews with an interesting observation. His point is that stages are raced much faster now than when he started in 1996 and that there is no piano on most - the speed is high for a long time at the start before a break gets loose. Also the climbing attacks aren't all out by a team that gets to the base of the big climb together so much anymore, but rather all the big guns are pretty much isolated nowadays by the middle of the big climb, and it is individual attacks.

Given this I thought it would be interesting to look at the last 20 years of Giros and just look at overall speeds. I took the average speed for the six years when MB started his career 1996-2001, the last 6 years and the six years from 1989-1995 to see if things changed. They have in an interesting way.

1989-1995 Ave Speed 37.56 kph Ave Length 3677 k

1996-2001 Ave Speed 37.74 kph Ave Length 3828 k

2003-2008 Ave Speed 38.28 kph Ave Length 3471 k

So there is definitely an increase of speed over the years. A half k per hour increase is nothing to sneeze at - that often is more than the difference between first and off the podium. And three quarter of a k since the early 90's. Uh huh.

The second interesting thing is that the race has been getting shorter, or rather, it got longer for about 10 years and is now getting shorter again. This definitely could have something to do with the speed also, but the earlier 90's races were closer to the current length with quite slower times.

It was interesting that the fastest Giro in the last 20 years was not done by an extraterrestrial Basso but by the quote maker Simoni who averaged 40.1 kph in 2001, the only person in the last 20 years to do this. Of course the course makes a difference in one year, that is why I averaged over 6 years, to reduce the impact of year to year course change. There has definitely been an increase in Forte and even Sforzando riding over Piano riding lately. Part of this I think is increased visibility and strength due to Pro Tour rules. These are now relaxed, but I do think they may have helped the Giro get to another level. We'll have to see if the attacking style on the mountains follows the newer way as Barry says. One more thing to look forward to. Mr. Barry is one excellent diarist.

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I hate for this to be the first comment

but I seem to remember that increasing speed in…I think it was Paris Roubaix?…was held up as evidence for doping. Well, no, I think the PR discussion had to do with vanishing and restored cobble sections. The doping argument was probably about the Tour.

It’s hard to know what to do with the last Giro. When you have known / caught dopers leading the race, everyone else has to race up to that pace! And this year, we’ll have the “downtown stroll” time from the protest stage (unless that’s factored out of the total) which will again mess with the numbers a bit.

Nice crunching, regardless. Don’t know how I feel about it, though.

by JFS_PGH on May 24, 2009 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The downtown stroll

had no time gaps, so it would stand to reason that it wouldn’t be included in the GC no?

by Wireless on May 24, 2009 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last years Giro

“Known/caught dopers leading”? Uhm… the Spanish are coming to get you. But I get Ricco, Sella and Co.

by Markk on May 24, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant last year, and stages

Though I guess the definition of average speed we’re using here is the GC winner, not the sum of the stage win times (or is it?). So maybe my thinking’s fuzzy, as well as my assumptions being unclear.

by JFS_PGH on May 24, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The quality of the field is definitely the answer here

There are now basically 20 competitive teams. The Giro has moved from regional race to a true GT. More riders coming to win means less relaxed racing.

I bet you could find similar statistics from Vuelta a Pais Vasco. In all historic accounts this was regarded as a nice “Tourist race”. Relaxed riding that made for good training and prize money for rider more focused on other races. Today it is highly competitive because there are so many riders from so many countries who see this as a race to prove themselves.

by Jens on May 24, 2009 4:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks interesting post.

As an Amercian watcher, we never get the times reported to us in splits or breakdowns, and I am left to wonder say if Armstrong is making a calculation to return basis the time the leaders did on L’Alpe d’Huez last year – as I’m sure he is very aware of the splits, or if he mainly just thinks he can beat reigning champ Sastre somehow..

Watching the Giro, and thinking about drugs – I just feel that some guys are a little faster than Levi, and it’s always been that way, so maybe things are okay. Maybe.

by thisisntthezodiac on May 24, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So far through this Giro they have raced 2573.1 kilometers and have averaged rough 40.9 kph.

WIth some mountain stages coming up this is going to be lowered slightly but it might remain over the 40 kph barrier

by Vlaanderen90 on May 24, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes that includes the "stroll" also I believe.

Part of what will make this year fast was taking out the climbs in various stages. That will eliminate an hour of racing over the course of the race. Remember that the big climbs are quite slow, relatively, so we should expect a high time at this point.

If I had time I would love to go stage by stage and classify sprinter, mountain, TT and see what the speeds were in each and if there is a difference. Going on Michael Barry there would be a definite difference in sprint and classicish stages.

I would absolutely believe LA has looked at ascent times, like at the Alpe last year, and many others. I have seen articles somewhere that said that wattage has been down, I wish I could find them. That suggests less drugs at any rate.

by Markk on May 24, 2009 7:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

heh

Not really sure what average speed tells us, since the courses for grand tours vary significantly.

I think Barry is talking more about how this Giro has been raced. Saturday to San Luca was one of the first stages where a big break went early, and stayed away. Only LPR chased, which meant for the riders in the main field, it was relatively mellow. Most of the stages, the first two hours have been screaming fast, with constant attacks and counters and no real break getting itself established. The hardest part of any bike race are the times when there is no break up the road. Always there have been teams chasing throughout the stages – one after the other. Silly fast racing this Giro. I think it’s partly the way the course is laid out, and partly how it is being raced. Generally, even the Tour has days where the break goes and everyone relaxes – of course, the hour it takes for the break to go up the road is stupid fast. And the final chase is fast, but you don’t have the high speeds all day that we’re seeing in the Giro this time around. At the end of the first week, there were a lot of riders bent out of shape b/c their DS’s were constantly putting them on the front to chase.

by gavia on May 25, 2009 12:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

6 year average speed does work. It

tells us the race has sped up. The courses are different, but overall there is a trend. That is what statistics are for, to make up numbers … I mean … to bring out subtle indications that aren’t obvious.

by Markk on May 25, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs