The Hidden X-Factor
by Chris Fontecchio on May 27, 2009 5:36 PM EDT
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PrintJust a short post over lunch; though fear not, Girbecco will be back this evening. While little changed today, the Block Haus Battle was nonetheless a big surprise to me. A mere two days ago I drove a stake through the hopes of both Levi Leipheimer (still dead) and Danilo Di Luca (very much undead). I celebrated the upcoming battle of the race's two strongest GC riders, Sastre and Menchov, the two clear winners on Monday. I surmised that after a rest day the battle would resume on the slopes of La Maiella, home to the Block Haus route. Barring the usual x-factors.
What I hadn't counted on -- an underappreciated factor -- was the rest day itself. This is an element of the otherwise accessible sport of cycling that us tifosi can't fully appreciate: why resting for a day is such a bad idea. But GC riders can usually be heard grumbling about an upcoming rest day prior to a megastage, for two reasons. First, they are bike riders, not media stars (usually), so lounging around a reporter-infested hotel for a day doesn't sit too well. Worse, a day off would be fatal to many sets of legs amidst a three week race. Maybe someone else can provide the physiological explanation, but my rudimentary understanding is that your body wants to start healing, and it's important to keep the legs moving to stave off the healing and retain the snap in your legs. I suspect there are riders who do fine after a mellow day, but they aren't the majority, so GC guys cover their bases by spending the "day off" hammering up and down the available roads to stay loose.
Well, the rest day definitely came back to bite Denis Menchov, and may have gotten Carlos Sastre as well. The former said as much -- he knew from the start that he didn't feel great. Sastre hasn't admitted any problems, telling AS "I have not found evil, they simply were better than me." OK, but two days ago you were better than they, and the only intervening factor was the rest day. So maybe, Carlos, you found evil after all.
Anyway, I just wanted to raise this. We try to find predictable elements in this sport, but there's always something else out there which can turn the race on its head. Granted, the only part of the race to be literally upended is the third step of the podium, but if Di Luca and Menchov repeat today's efforts on Friday, Menchov's jersey will be in jeopardy. I am not counting on that; I suspect Menchov has paid his rest-day punishment in full. But, well, you can once more understand why doping was so de rigeur for so long. Cycling is one endless succession of X-factors, thanks to the nature of the human body, so anything you can do to control the unknown is tempting indeed.
Oh, and researching this piece caused me to see who won the Champs' League final, which I am supposed to watch in about six hours. The sacrifices I make around here...
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Podium! and a thought
I don’t see days like that for the Killer. He just goes and goes. No complaining. Very professional. Looks very strong this year, and even exceeded expectations in the ITT.
What can I say, he’s the Killer. Rest days, no rest days, climbs, sprints, what ever.
-Bob
FORZA KILLER!
indeed
Forza Killer! What would this Giro be without him?
Just a note of possible interest re: Chris’s post, the Spanish Eurosport guys were talking today about how Sastre is at his best when things are very difficult, e.g. on a long climb at the end of a long hard day full of climbs (sound familiar?). They guessed that the combination of the rest day and short stage didn’t play to his strengths.
by plinytheelder on May 27, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
The Killer has certainly won me as a new fan in the past few weeks.
I’m so completely sold on his way of racing, his attitude and also his persona off the bike. That no prisoners approach does it for me. Forza Danilo indeed. I would scream my office down if he were able to make any serious inroads into Menchov before Sunday….he’ll have his work cut out, but you never know.
Adrenalina Italiana!
hm
Perhaps the rest days are more dangerous to the true mountain goat types. Or maybe it completely varies from person to person with no particular pattern.
There’s also a flipside to my point about doping being the solution to the X-factors. That Menchov and Sastre suffered after a rest day is a sign of clean riding. If Di Luca is great after rest days… it doesn’t prove anything but it doesn’t end the doubts either.
FCUK! I hate the doubts.
Abruzziamo!
by Chris Fontecchio on May 27, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
It does vary from person to person
It’s similar to warming up for a crit or a time trial – some people ride just fine on a short warm-up, others need to go out and kill themselves ahead of the race. Generally, the more you ride, the less well you handle complete days off, or at least, the more “off peak” you’ll be the next day. Again, varying depending on the individual.
Going into a short stage like this would be very hard cold, especially after the hard day on the Monte Petrano.
I doubt very much that any of the general classification riders really made this mistake though. It’s a pretty basic thing, that doesn’t take too long to figure out. If you’ve raced as long as these guys, you pretty much have this stuff down. I doubt Sastre slacked on the rest day.
The other dudes really climbed this thingy fast. Pellizotti killed it. I don’t think the speed really suited Sastre. Also, he may have only had the one move on the Petrano – the Cervelo ds said he went pretty deep there.
Odd race formats make for odd results
So, apparently this format suited Pelizotti to a T, Sastre not at all. Be interesting to see how they do on Vesuvius.
And about diLuca—never thought much of him before, in fact I kept getting him confused with Cunego. No more. I’d love to see him pull it off, but that probably means he won’t.
who's taller?
Cunego or Diluca?
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
Dood
You should never call a grand tour over when there’s still a week of racing to go. You jinx yourself ;-)
well
I just figured it would shake things up some.
Abruzziamo!
by Chris Fontecchio on May 27, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to toot my own horn
But I totally called this:
Interseting thoguht (if I do say so myself)
the rest day may end up being a pretty big factor. It has happned many times before that a contender doesn’t structure their rest day properly (goes too hard, not hard enough, too many massages) and ends up struggling the next day. If you look at the schedule, there is exactly zero mercy for anyone having a jour sans the day after the rest day
by Hons on May 22, 2009 5:27 PM EDT reply reply actions actions 0 recs
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
and yet
you got 0 recs. More genius going unrecognized…
Abruzziamo!
by Chris Fontecchio on May 27, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey! I called it too!
Menchov is basically trying to extend his mid-race peak long enough to hold off DiLuca. Run out the clock basically. Now how DiLuca can keep doing this solidly through a whole three weeks with no weaknesses… beats me but he is.
IMO it’s very very hard to have one solid day after another for three weeks. I think when we see a bad day from someone, like say Garzelli and Pellizotti on stage 4/5, we are seeing someone go into the red for too long, or to put it another way, they are trying to push into their peak form when they don’t have it and it’s either passed or has yet to come. The great riders, the ones who become champions, keep those bad days to a minimum so you don’t call it a bad day just a weak one. Like Menchov just had. DiLuca, to my eyes, hasn’t had a weak day yet, let alone a bad day.
So the last four stages Menchov has to use his brains to minimize his losses. Plus from his perspective he has to hope DiLuca starts to weaken, like Killer did last year on stage 20 when he was dropped or Sastre today. Tomorrow the Rabobank team has to be super aggressive from the start to stop any dangerous breaks so Menchov can rest as much as possible before Vesuvius.
Such thing as too many massages?
Not where I’m from.
by brunopitton on May 27, 2009 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
No worries
i like your point about pushing the peak that isn’t there. I wonder if that’s what happened with Sastre. He doesn’t have the most racing days in his legs.
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
Stop posting as Hons Ursula
"I didn't look for him and I didn't see him. If you base your race on another rider, most of the time you lose."
Tom Boonen
It's the combination I guess
Rest day + short crazy stage next that did in Carlos and Denis. If it would have been a long grueling stage over 4 climbs they probably would have done fine enough.
"Non-cyclists. The emptiness of those lives shocks me." Tim Krabbé
Laurens ten Dam
Had a great day on the Blockhaus. He had great legs and could have finished with Arroyo. But he spared his strenght in the last 5 km because he will need every ounce of it in the remaining stages. Menchov and Ten Dam have used the ‘rest day’ to scout the Blockhaus climb.
Maybe the rest day x-factor also has to do with age?
"Non-cyclists. The emptiness of those lives shocks me." Tim Krabbé
All true, but I doubt one thing
“Sastre hasn’t admitted any problems, telling AS “I have not found evil, they simply were better than me.” OK, but two days ago you were better than they, and the only intervening factor was the rest day."
I thought three days ago Menchov was by far the best rider. He could’ve easily beaten Sastre, but he didn’t have to.
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