Who Is Really the World's #1 Time Trialist?
by Chris... on May 3, 2009 9:00 PM EDT
in Numbers
87 comments
It's conventional wisdom that Fabian Cancellara is the King of the Chrono. Olympic Champion. Two-time World Champion (a title he only surrendered by going on vacation). Owner of some of the coolest wins in the discipline, including the memorable London prologue when he practically overran the motos. Plus, almost nobody dislikes him. Nice story.
But is it true?
Unfortunately cycling's measuring sticks can be a little hard to identify, so to answer this question we first have to ask, how do you choose the "best time trialist"? The discipline consists loosely of prologues, middlin ITTs, longer ones such as the decisive grand tour variety (~50km), and mountain time trials. There are specialists in each sub-discipline, but I submit that we should be looking to see who is the best across the board.
Answer on the flip.
An aside, I tried doing this with the head2head feature at CQ Ranking, but riders simply don't matchup enough to keep the sample size adequately large. So we'll go with each individual's placings. Statistics are from January 2007 - present, so the material is reasonably fresh.
Fabian Cancellara
Prologue
Wins: 5
Win %: 71
Avg. place: 3
Mid-Length
Wins: 4
Win %: 44
Avg. place: 6.5
Major (Worlds/Olympics)
Wins: 2
Win %: 100
Avg. place: 1
Grand Tour ITT
Wins: 1
Win %: 25
Avg. place: 25
Hill Climb
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 80
Levi Leipheimer
Prologue
Wins: 1
Win %: 16.7
Avg. place: 6.8
Mid-Length
Wins: 5
Win %: 62.5
Avg. place: 3
Major (Worlds/Olympics)
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 3.5
Grand Tour ITT
Wins: 4
Win %: 50
Avg. place: 5.1
Hill Climb
Wins: 1
Win %: 50
Avg. place: 27
Alberto Contador
Prologue
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 16.5
Mid-Length
Wins: 5
Win %: 41.6
Avg. place: 5.5
Major (Worlds/Olympics)
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 4
Grand Tour ITT
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 5
Hill Climb
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 4
Cadel Evans
Prologue
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 22
Mid-Length
Wins: 1
Win %: 12.5
Avg. place: 6.3
Major (Worlds/Olympics)
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 5
Grand Tour ITT
Wins: 1
Win %: 16.6
Avg. place: 4.8
Hill Climb
Wins: n/a
Win %: n/a
Avg. place: n/a
Gustav Erik Larsson
Prologue
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 24.6
Mid-Length
Wins: 1
Win %: 6
Avg. place: 11
Major (Worlds/Olympics)
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 7.3
Grand Tour ITT
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 25.5
Hill Climb
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 14
Bert Grabsch
Prologue
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 46
Mid-Length
Wins: 2
Win %: 12.5
Avg. place: 10
Major (Worlds/Olympics)
Wins: 1
Win %: 33
Avg. place: 6
Grand Tour ITT
Wins: 1
Win %: 33
Avg. place: 23.6
Hill Climb
Wins: n/a
Win %: n/a
Avg. place: n/a
Dave Zabriskie
Prologue
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 13.4
Mid-Length
Wins: 2
Win %: 20
Avg. place: 3.7
Major (Worlds/Olympics)
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 9
Grand Tour ITT
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 3
Hill Climb
Wins: 0
Win %: 0
Avg. place: 3
Among just these guys, here's how they rank in each subdiscipline, IMHO. Obviously each subdiscipline has other specialists not listed here, but, well, here you go.
Prologues: 1. Cancellara; 2. Leipheimer; 3. Zabriskie; 4. Contador; 5. Larsson; 6. Evans; 7. Grabsch
Mid-range ITTs: 1. Leipheimer; 2. Cancellara; 3. Contador; 4. Zabriskie; 5. Evans; 6. Grabsch; 7. Larsson
Major Races: 1. Cancellara; 2. Grabsch; 3. Larsson; 4. Leipheimer; 5. Evans; 6. Zabriskie; 7. Contador
Grand Tour ITTs: 1. Leipheimer; 2. Evans; 3. Contador; 4. Cancellara; 5. Zabriskie; 6. Grabsch; 7. Larsson
Hill Climbs: 1. Contador; 2. Zabriskie; 3. Leipheimer; 4. Larsson; 5. Cancellara; n/a Evans, Grabsch
From all that, here's my ranking:
1. Levi Leipheimer!
The only guy on the list who truly does everything well -- extremely well in fact, scoring wins in four of the five categories. His lowest marks came in the major races, which he simply hasn't contested much. There is no earthly reason he couldn't medal at the worlds if he decided to stay on form through September. Ultimately, the choice between him and Cancellara comes down to whether you value Leipheimer's phenomenal record in grand tours and middle-distance races over Cancellara's middle distance wins, prologues, and two majors. Grand tours are the biggest ticket in the sport, and the ITTs are usually critical stages. So I'll go with Levi.
2. Fabian Cancellara
All the flash and sizzle, and lots of nice jerseys as a reward. But his expertise is more on the shorter side. He's the only world champion in recent years who can also bust out a prologue. But the longer races are a stretch for him. He just doesn't have Leipheimer's strength across the board.
3. Alberto Contador
A true ace in the middle-range races, which he contests mostly in one-week Spanish races and early season stuff like Paris-Nice. The fact that he's within shouting range of the first two guys on this list is pretty impressive given where he was four years ago. Don't dismiss the idea of some breakthroughs in grand tour stages, but for now he's third.
4. Dave Zabriskie
I wouldn't have guessed Zabriskie would rate so highly before engaging in this exercise, but the fact is Dave Z is quite good at everything. OK, he hasn't won a prologue in a while, but he contests them. Even his hill climbing is strong. Too bad he's only rode one grand tour ITT since 2007, which makes for a poor sample size. Hopefully he will stay healthy and Garmin will send him to the biggest races, so we can really assess this. That Giro stage will be more than a little interesting.
5. Cadel Evans
In the last 2.5 seasons Evans has but two wins. So while he's taken very seriously in every discipline but prologues, I can't see him any higher on the list.
6. Bert Grabsch
The World Champion is certainly no slouch: wins in the middle range, the worlds and a grand tour ITT (Vuelta) are some nice palmares. Doesn't seem to give a crapola about prologues and hasn't been made to do any hill climbs.
7. Gustav Larsson
Strong showings in the Worlds and Olympics bought him a place on the list, and his consistent competence in the mid-range races back it up. It's possible he's not really even the seventh-best chronoman in the world, but I'll go with it for now.
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Good analysis
I don’t disagree with your placing Levi above Cance. Yeah, Tony does great in shorter TTs, but he doesn’t really seem competitive in the longer GT TTs, though it’s possible I may be misremembering something: which GT TT did he win? I remember the London prologue in ‘07, but I am assuming that’s under the prologue score.
Seeing this, it really makes me think Levi will have a great chance in the Giro this year, with that 62k monster on the slate this year. Conversely, it makes me downplay his chances in the Tour, given the relative shortness of the ITTs, even if you don’t factor in AC…
by Le Comte on May 3, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
since you opened the snark door
A certain Floyd Landis finished 74th today at Gila, 27 minutes down.
by R Mc on May 3, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow, thanks for the snark comment
because otherwise I wouldn’t have known Floyd was there, that’s really sad. Poor guy, what’s he building for? Or is he tapering from his ATOC performance?
by sminer on May 3, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wouldn't spartacus
have an additional 2 grand tour tt wins without the stolen wins by asshole schumi?
"Race radios in Cat 4?"
by gravel road on May 3, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oy
How far down that road should we go?
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 3, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know Bartali was doped in 1937, I just know it
Giovanni Valetti was screwed over!
(yes I looked up who finished 2nd in the 37 Giro)
In Chauncey we trust!
by Phil H. on May 3, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1 additional
I had forgotten he came in 2nd in the second ITT last year. The first ITT he came in 4th, so throwing schumi out wouldn’t get him the win.
by Le Comte on May 3, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I stay with conventional wisdom here and Cance
I like the stats and all, but some of it doesn’t make for proper conclusions. But if you’re going with the stats across the board over a season, then I agree with Levi as the pick. He is the most prolific across a season and at all types of TT’s. Dude recovers as well or better than any cyclist out there too. But for pure bonecrushing power and getting it done with jaw dropping awe… The Beast.
by sminer on May 3, 2009 10:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OK
I agree that if there’s a “patron” it’s Cancellara. That’s kind of where I started from before doing the stats. Nobody leaves people in slack-jawed awe like Tony Spartacus.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 3, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the long giro tt could be supa
Didja see the Gila reports?
Leipheimer was clocking 58-60 mph on the tail cross-wind descents—on a 55. (Zirbel rode a 58).
Point: while the Gila tt was straight out-and-back, the descents, rollers, and x-winds made for a handling challenge.
While Zabriskie gets all the praise for his position, Leipheimer’s a rocket. If anyone could ride the long tt on a tt bike, my bet would be LL.
by R Mc on May 3, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody will ride a TT bike on long Giro TT course because it is too technical...
and the aerodynamic benefits would be limited…they will probably just ride a aero road bike with a TT helmet w/ clip on TT bars if they are smart. With the amount of steeper climbs in it, it would be better to have a lighter road bike setup.
by Vlaanderen90 on May 4, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting choice
I suppose every rider’s tipping point is different, but I wouldn’t have guessed from looking at the map that you’d be looking at standard road rigs. But then, nobody’s sending me to Cinque Terre to pre-ride…
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 4, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Though I like Cance, I will say this
For his size, he should have bone crushing power. But, the fact of the matter is that Levi routinely beats everyone on flat time trials even though he is so small. That to me is far more impressive than a beast like Cancellara losing on the flats to a little guy like Levi. I agree with the rest of what you wrote though.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The downside
is that Cancellara scores low in the Grand Tour events, and a guy like him who’s not going for the overall might not be going all out. Everyone has a job to do in the Tour. But I do think he’s tried to win stages and has fallen pretty well short.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 3, 2009 10:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you listen to Riis interviews
Cances No1 job in the Tour is winning TTs (because honestly, if you ask Bjarne if he would rather win the GC or the TT, he would have to think about it). Domestiqueing is second priority so I don’t think he is softpedalling. He might have wasted energy working for others but on the other hand a guy like Levi might have gone deeper in the climbing-stages so it evens out.
I think the analysis is spot on. Everything taken into account, Levi is the best allround TTer in the world. That said, given a 30km TT in rolling terrain I would never bet so much as a nickel against Tony Spartacus.
by Jens on May 4, 2009 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cance by the bet test
Ok We are having the World TT tomorrow, both Levi and Fabian have prepared for this race as a major goal. Who are you going to bet on? With all due respect to Levi my money is on FC and so he is number 1 in my book. The kind of TT at teh Worlds or Olympics is the definition.
by Markk on May 3, 2009 10:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The only thing with that is
Just because something is called the World TT Championships, it doesn’t mean it decides who is the best time triallist. Michael Rogers won three times but was pretty much crap when it counted, which is stage races. Stage race TT’s matter more than single days events, because there aren’t many single day events, but there are a ton of stage races. When you look at where they matter most, grand tours, Cance falls short while Levi excels.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Going with Cance
if both Cance and Levi are at their full strength then Cance usually wins, Proluge’s, and World/Olympics for example. Levi is the better when the TT comes later in a race, but he is a much better climber and has more strength in the legs after the mountains than Cance does. But if you put them against one another with both fully rested, then I’m putting my money on Spartacus. Oh and I’m not sure if TT’s were Simoni and Di Luca can win are really TT’s(aka. mountain TT)
In Chauncey we trust!
by Phil H. on May 3, 2009 10:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Have to disagree
If the race is short, Cance might win. Sure he’ll win prologues and the occasional middle distance time trials, but the really long hard ones are all Levi. Like Chris said, he’s the best across the board. That alone should make him number one.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Olympic time trial was long and hard
And Tony beat Levi by more than a minute.
If a time trial comes in the third week of a grand tour, then I’d definitely give Levi the edge. Levi’s a grand tour gc rider, precisely because he’s the type of rider who’s able to race at a high level after three weeks of hard effort. But for pure time trial ability, it’s Cancellara all the way, imo.
by Tifosa on May 4, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Different skills
Agreed. Time trialing in third week of a grand tour is all about recovery. It’s the mark of stage racer, and shows more about the ability to ride a stage race than it does about the ability to ride against the watch. To give another example, this is how Cunego – not known as a time trialer – beat Markus Fothen – known as a time trialer – in the Tour de France a few weeks back and took the white jersey. Fothen is better against the watch, but Cunego is the better stage racer.
by gavia on May 4, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the stage race part
I just think that many on here are giving Tony the nod because of sentimentality. The stats back up Levi, the hearts back up Tony. I’m not one for sentimentality and romanticizing (sp?) bike races too much, especially single riders.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 5, 2009 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Er, no
I’m not romanticizing. I think it’s an apples to oranges comparison between a one day crono and a stage race. The better stage racer will win in the third week of a grand tour – that’s his talent.
Cool that you think Levi is the best crono rider in the world. I’m not prepared to jump on that particular bandwagon.
by gavia on May 5, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To me, that is just a case of peaking more than anything
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 5, 2009 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris, you feeling it?, can't go against that Cance mojo.
by sminer on May 3, 2009 10:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No
it’s head vs. heart. Cance the latter, but as to the former, I stand by the post.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 3, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ouch, that's cold hearted.
But I said I see your point, and Levi is certainly no slouch at putting out some relentless power.
by sminer on May 3, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well we all know that Girbecco has taken over your brain
so I’m not sure how sincere your pick is, I think it’s the goat talking.
In Chauncey we trust!
by Phil H. on May 3, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Girbecco says
Eat shit!
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 3, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That damn goat has it coming for him
I’m telling you, once this Giro is over and he is retired from Giro lore, he is going to be met by Rolf in his mountain pastures, and Rolf will surely give him an offer he can’t refuse, that goat has struck my nerve too many time.
In case you are wondering who Rolf is
Try not to wince in fear
In Chauncey we trust!
by Phil H. on May 3, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not Girbecco!
Dio mio!
Girbecco was made by a small girl from Northern Italy – he doesn’t even know shit, he just does it!
by Forstoppelse on May 4, 2009 6:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TTs in a GT
the longer ones, have a lot going into it than just the TT ability.
I’ll be looking a lot more at the major races, so I’m going with Tony.
by rbjhan on May 3, 2009 10:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As the Official Levi Leipheimer Apologist, I approve of this post.
But the frustrating thing here is that unless Spartacus goes through with his dream of being a GC man, we’ll never really get a true Cance-Levi match, or a Cance-Bert match etc. Even the Olympics last year wasn’t straight up as Levi was building for the Vuelta and for Cance it was the ultimate race of the season. We have seen Cance beat Levi twice on flat prologues at California. That’s the closest to head ot head we’ve got. Maybe this here 61 km TT will tell us something.
by ursula on May 3, 2009 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yea but like Phil mentioned, mountains are going to hurt Cance more than Levi
But Levi is going to have to go alot harder in the mountains, so it could even itself out. It’s still possibly going to be the TT event of the year.
by sminer on May 3, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Levi is going to have to go alot harder in the mountains"
yeah I thought of that as well, but if it’s a situation like last year in the Tour, were Tony was used as a doemstique and ripped it up the climbs as long as he could, then Cance is still going lose more strength than a protected rider like Levi me thinks.
In Chauncey we trust!
by Phil H. on May 3, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Levi in that 61km ITT comin' up; cance in the same
I’m taking a wild guess and say that Levi will be looking to peak for that ITT. He’ll be hanging on the first couple of mountain stages then rev up post-Milan.
With Cance, I don’t see a GC threat on his team so maybe he’ll be allowed some latitude and he’ll be able to pace himself. The Saxo squad looks like a real good stage hunting squad to me- Cance, Jens!, Van Goolen, Haedo, McCartney, Bak, Goss, Lund, Klostergaard.
Zabriskie- Much for him will depend if CVV happens to get involved in the GC conversation.
by ursula on May 4, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Levi should look to peak around stage 10-12
the Astana team will probably put some time in all of the other favorite’s in the TTT and then they will be strong enough to control things in the early mountain stages, at least stage 4. Although he may want to be close to peaking on stage 10 which seems like it will be a place were a few GC contenders could lose a good chunk of time, just looking at how long it is.
In Chauncey we trust!
by Phil H. on May 4, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember Cance saying he would like to go to the Giro to contend for this ITT
I hope things play out for a great match up and an all out effort for the win from these guys and more.
by sminer on May 4, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Levi beat Cancellara 2 out of 3 times
in the ToC TT’s (Solvang 2x and San Jose). That’s pretty head to head. We know Cancellara was going well because he won the Palo Alto prologue and got fifth on the climb to Coit Tower, not a strength of his.
by brunopitton on May 4, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Levi peaks for AToC trying to win it...Canc can do a 5km prologue in his sleep and beat anybody usually...
he probably isn’t ready for a longer time trial.
I’d like to see Levi to Worlds TT against him.
by Vlaanderen90 on May 4, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Consider Andreas Kloden
Was thinking of who else to include and he stands out to me:
Prologue: 0 wins, Win - 0, Avg place- 12. His one good prologue (2nd) was London.
Mid-length- 4 wins, win %- 40, Avg place- 2 Worst placing was 7th at Algarve in 08.
majors- none
Hill- 0 wins, win %-0, Avg place- 11
Grand Tours- wins- 0, win %- 0, Avg place- 6
I wasn’t sure where to put the Plan de Corones ITT; I put it in the Hill category since it was so freakin’ hilly.
In you lists I’d put him:
Prologue- 5th ahead of Larsson
Mid-range- 2nd ahead of Cancelara
majors- ???? Hasn’t done one in this time period.
Hill- 4th ahead of Larsson
Grand Tours- 4th ahead of Cancellara
Overall- 4th, ahead of Zabriskie.
But here’s the thing against Kloden- In the Grand Tour ITT’s I’d say only two of the four he rode was he riding for himself as opposed to resting up for helping Bert. Riding for himself he placed 2nd (Urbino), and 3rd (Albi). For Bert at last year’s Vuelta- 11th and 10th.
by ursula on May 4, 2009 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chris, I'm so glad you posted this!
Cance’s name is always brought up in TT circles, like Mr. October, Michael Rogers. And while Cance excels at prologues and one day events, that’s pretty much where it ends. Grand Tour time trials is where it is at. Also, I think Levi has won at least three prologues that I can think of, 2 from the TOC and one from the Dauphine last year (I think).
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 2:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know people here like to say Cance, but winning speaks
Levi was won, almost, if not all of the time trials he has competed in this year. Okay, so he lost the flat prologue to Cance, but not by much. Winning percentage wise, Levi is the best time triallist in the world. Wins are what matters and Levi is a tt winner.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 3:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What about Lance?
Of the active riders, setting aside all doping suspicions, I would have thought that Lance Armstrong is clearly the best ITT guy based on past performance. Of course, he may never regain his pre-retirement form — but if he does, Levi will have his hands full.
by DeathBredon on May 4, 2009 3:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Easily, Cancellara
Cancellara:
3 x Tour de France I.T.T
2 x World Champion
1 x Olympic Champion
Leipheimer:
1 x Tour de France I.T.T
Leipheimer does well at events with poor competition, but when the best are assembled it’s Cancellara who comes out on top
by William H on May 4, 2009 6:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not sure how you can say easily
As far as events with poor competition, you have got to be joking. Not only did he win the ITT in the TdF in ‘07, he CRUSHED the field with the forth fastest Tour TT in history. Also, you are leaving out the two Vuelta TT’s from last year as well as every/just about every TT so far this year. You are counting prologues in those TdF TT victories, but they were only prologues. As good as those are, they aren’t the long hard time trials that count. I’ll give Cance the Olympic and Worlds TT’s, but those were events he was specifically targeting. As far as consistency, he’s not consistency. One of the things that makes Levi a better time triallist is the fact that he wins TT’s all year long and more importantly, wins the TT’s in the Grand Tours after many stages of climbing. Prologues are great, but don’t mistake them for true time trials over distances like those in the Tour and for the record, Levi generally owns Cance in the longer time trials they are both in, not the other way around.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should have also mentioned
The overall ability that Levi has in various kinds of tt’s makes him the best all around time triallist in the world as well as his ability to recover from the murderous climbs of the Tour and still crush the long time trials. That in itself makes him a special breed.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 6:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I left out the Vuelta TTs because beating Valverde and Chavanel doesn’t compare with places where there are real competition.
Leipheimer was great in that ’07 TT, but 1 is less than 3.
An I.T.T is an I.T.T, and if anything there is better competition in a prologue than after the field has been whittled down by weeks of racing, crashing and dope tests.
by William H on May 4, 2009 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He also beat his teammate in the TT, who is also a fantastic time triallist
An ITT is not an ITT. Prologues are nothing more than extended sprints. They are apples and oranges. Besides that, since most time trials happen in stage races, where they matter the most, they are better indicators than the national and world championships and prologues. Some of those that go well in prologues couldn’t stay on Levi’s wheel in a longer time trial while Levi is quite often very close to Cance in the prologues. Statistics speak and they say that Levi is the best. We are just going to have to disagree I guess. But, Cance’s record in time trials isn’t even close to Levi’s the last couple of years.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I much as I agree with Levi being the better TTer
you can’t simply say that the GT TTs are better indicators than the Worlds. You might be the Worlds Ultimate TTer, capable of thrashing you opponents by minutes, but if your DS tells you to cruise through the TT in a stagerace so you can assist a teammate on other stages that is what you do as a profesional. The Worlds is a race where everyone is focused on winning so they are more fair in that respect.
by Jens on May 4, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure that Cance is on a Tour team to win time trials
Saxobank has plenty of people to do the dirty work. His job is to win time trials.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 5, 2009 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you ignore prologues the Leipheimer gets close to Cancellara. Still loses, because they’ve each got a Tour long TT win, and Cancellara has a brilliant Championship record, but it’s no longer a walk over.
But the question wasn’t #1 long time triallist, it was #1 time triallist, and prologues are time trials.
by William H on May 4, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What year was Tony's long ITT win in the Tour because I am drawing a blank?
I’m not being a smart ass, I simply don’t remember.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 5, 2009 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last year, stage 20
With Schumacher DQed
by William H on May 5, 2009 5:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah about that
It doesn’t count, because Levi wasn’t there. You said this to me about Levi winning the two Vuelta time trials and why you didn’t count them and I quote:
“I left out the Vuelta TTs because beating Valverde and Chavanel doesn’t compare with places where there are real competition”.
The same holds true for Cance’s win. Levi wasn’t there and the competition that was is no where close to Levi.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 5, 2009 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've got something to say!
Not that it is anything new – actually, I’ll just repeat that in pure TT-skills, Cancellara is best while Leipheimer gains his GT-advantage on his great recuperation. Exactly the recuperation is often a major factor in deciding GT’s. It’s what Valverde loses on and it’s what Sastre wins on. Michael Rasmussen paid for his growing fatigue in the Tour 2005. In 2007, he got blood midwise in the Tour and thus he was able to hold his level all the way through. Some years ago, I read that Coppi had said that “The Tour is won in the bed” – you could be teenage-minded like me and see naughtyness in that statement, but, interpreting it in a more serious way, it’s actually a great point.
by Forstoppelse on May 4, 2009 6:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe true, but the ability to recuperate from those hard days in the mountains sets him apart
That’s what makes the big GT riders so special, they’re ironmen. But since about 90%+ of time trials are in stage races and not single day events, it’s reasonable and more accurate to say that he who wins the most is the best. Statistics back it up. Many have an affinity for Cance and that’s great, but statistics talk and I believe people see the rainbow skinsuit and it somehow tricks them into thinking that the WC is somehow the best in that discipline, which is definitely not true. Look at Michael Rogers (I posted this above), he was Mr. October but didn’t do dammit the rest of the year in the big time trials. Sadly Cance is pretty much the same.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 6:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cance as a Mr. October...
… just that, that isn’t true. He had 6 ITT-wins in 2008, from February to August.
Anyway, Leipheimer is definitely the best TT’ist overall – this because he can also cronoescalate. He has just never proved much in one-day-ITT’s. Building up the to Vuelta, he was 3rd in Beijing where most of his opponents had three weeks of Tour de France still in their legs. Four days after the Vuelta, he was 4th in the ITT World Championships.
My point with this and my post above is that Leipheimer is one of the world’s best stage racers and one of the world’s overall best time trialists. Because of his overall time trial-abilities, he’s one the best stage racers – and because of his stage racing-abilities, he’s one of the best overall time trialers.
by Forstoppelse on May 4, 2009 6:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right, but I just don't put prologues up there with the longer time trials
Much in the same way, I don’t put single day time trials in with the grand tour time trials. Winning a Tour time trial is about the biggest thing you can do as a specialist in procycling. The prologue is a good win, but not the same as winning the big ones in a grand tour.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course you don't
Because if you did, your postion that Levi is better wouldn’t hold up. I think Levi is a GC that uses TT’s very well to accomplish his goals in the race. I really hope we get to see Levi be the protected rider for the Giro to see what he can do. It seems to me that it’s been a long time since he’s had a team to work for his interests in a GT and he’s clearly not the same rider he was in the Gerolstiner days.
But back to the TT question. In my mind, the one days events are it: Worlds and Olympics. I agree with William above that prologues are often a better indicator of TT prowess since everyone is at full strength. So, not surprisingly, I favor Tony.
Everyone has his/her own preference, and there are plenty of stats available to back up any position you want to take. As Jens said above though, saying that the GT TT’s are more important, or are a better indicator, is pretty suspect. There are a lot of good TT riders (Tuft,Grabsch) that are solely in a GT to support their leader and as such are worn down and/or unwilling to put forth the effort required by a TT in the middle of a 3 week race.
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
by jsallee00 on May 4, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good thoughts
I guess this raises the question of how do you pick the criteria for best TT’er? The problem is that Cancellara has little success in the 50k events. We tend not to see ANY 50k ITTs outside of the Tour or the Giro. And yet I don’t think it’s fair to Levi to throw those out and say Cancellara wins because in the middle range stuff, even at the highest level of competition, he wins. I wonder what would happen if you held a 55k ITT as a one-day event, over rolling terrain. Unfortunately, I doubt we’ll ever know.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 4, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know, Levi has some serious ability...
… and certainly deserves recognition.
I read the stats, I read through the arguments, and I still say that it’s Tony all the way. Not everything can be captured by stats (yeah, I know that this is blasphemy to some of you, LOL). Eg: quite a few of Tony’s win haven’t just been ‘wins’ – they’ve been wholesale slaughter of the field. And the bike handling – his cornering is so damn sexy it’s just about obscene, LOL.
by Lou... on May 4, 2009 6:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Your're right, not everything can be captured in stats, only the important things
Sexy cornering isn’t one of those.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 4, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno... sexy cornering shaves off time ;-)
I reckon that some riders would feel that it’s pretty important!
But granted – it’s possible to have the best bike-handling skills in the world, and still have to be timed with a calendar. (‘s just that Tony’s bike-handling skill happens to go along with an awful lot of winning times…).
by Lou... on May 5, 2009 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that he wins, my point is that percentage wise, the nod goes to Leipheimer
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 5, 2009 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
numbers
I think a straight-up numbers match-up is completely fair… and goes to Levi. I call BS on the idea the numbers don’t explain the circumtances, like the “he wasn’t riding for the GC so he bagged it” excuse, which I’ve never heard Cance use by the way.
by phantom_51 on May 4, 2009 8:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ideally
with a large enough sample size, the numbers really are bullet-proof. Whether we have that here is arguable, though obviously I wrote the post thinking yes.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 4, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah number size seems too small here to be definitive.
But that just makes for better arguments. Win-win!
by ursula on May 4, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't the real answer, "it depends"
It depends on the course (long, short, hilly, rolling etc.
It depends on the day (hot, cold, windy, wet etc.)
It depends on the motivation level (Levi @ TOC is riding with a much higher motivation/expectation level than Cancellara).
It depends on the preceding events (is this the last TT in a GT or a one off TT).
Isn’t all of this what makes cycling so great?
The numbers tell one story, but the races and everything that make them up invariably deliver a different one; usually a much more interesting and exciting one.
The exceptions to this are rare and few in between (Mercks in almost any race and maybe Indurain/Armstrong in almost any TT)..
Has the Giro started yet?
by muk on May 4, 2009 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chris--what do you consider "hill climbs"?
Does the finish have to be uphill, or is a big-ass climb somewhere in the course sufficient?
You need to do this race two or three times before you can win, despite what Cunego showed us last year: winning in his first try--Frank Schleck, on Amstel Gold
by majope on May 4, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Something billed as a hill climb
Uphill finish, and mostly just a single climb, maybe with a flat or rolling run-in. There weren’t many to choose from, so it’s kind of a wildcard.
CQRanking.com, you complete me.
by Chris... on May 4, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Worlds and Olympics, what do they do to decide the best ITT'er?
They do medium range with varied terrain, seems fair. And Cance wins. Stats can lie, they can be lie and be evaluated incorrectly.
Btw, Lou I loved the sexy cornering comment.
by sminer on May 4, 2009 4:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The best time triallist that one day out of a whole season
For example, the number one rider in the world isn’t determined by the guy who wins the WC, it’s decided by the guy who has done the best over the course of the year. Valverde has done that a couple of times yet hasn’t won the WC yet, so I don’t believe that the world championships are the standard, winning and consistent performances are the standard and when it comes to the time trial, it’s Levi recently.
If I just had one more gear, I...
by SpunOut on May 5, 2009 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eww eww eww
this is a disgusting as the number manipulation Ursula tried to do, there’s so little reasoning behind it.
These numbers are too superficial because they do not take into account the circumstances.
Would Levi have won the time trials in last year’s TdF? Was he up against anyone even close to Schumacher level in the Vuelta?
The only way to see who is best is to have them ride against each other, if you take other races you’ll obviously have to look at who they were up against and how much importance they put into the time trial.
Let’s see the last couple of times Levi and Fabian have been up against each other Fabian has won(one after a long TdF and another while having the flu) and we know for a fact that both we’re aiming for these TTs.
The funny thing about statistics is that one usually only end up seeing which rider the person behind it root for, not reality.
And usually these people get bitten in the bum when hit by reality, just like when Sastre rode his usual iTT in last year’s TdF.
Sorry but this place should be too good for this, even if Levi is American and riding for JB.
by OctaBech on May 5, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Apples and Oranges
Or oranges and tangerines, anyhow. It all comes down to how you define “best time trialist”, and there are so many ways to do that. Too, you have to think about where the riders are in the arcs of their careers—if one or the other peaks sooner, then even the head-to-head competitions aren’t the whole story.
All that said, on a given day, in a non-specialist TT (i.e. not a prologue, not a climbing TT), with both men at the top of their form and fully committed to the race, I’d take Cancellara, by a handful of seconds.
by tgartner on May 5, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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