The 5. Who are they?

by R Mc on Jun 21, 2009 11:28 AM EDT Comment 62 comments

Note: this is not an Ursula post. Expect no research. Expect no clear reasoning. Just a lame assertion followed by minimal support an then an invitation to discuss.

Lame Assertion:

The pool of cyclists actually capable of winning a Grand Tour--specifically le Tour--is always very small. Arbitrarily, I'm saying 5. The prime variables in my calculus for determining who is NOT on the list refer to primarily psychological rather than physiological characteristics. [Note: again, this 'calculus' I write of is purely a figment of my imagination--although I plan to package up some bogus test questions and interest profiles as the "McLamore battery" and offer it to Pro-Tour teams sorta like Gil Brandt cooked up scouting packages for the Dallas Cowboys after he got tired of taking baby photos].

more after the click

Part of the problem, then, is that it's never straight-forward about who the GT contenders COULD be. Could Spartacus be a GT contender? It depends on the model of winning a GT he plans to use. Certainly the Sastre model won't work, but the Indurain model might. But does Cancellara have the psychological tools to impose himself on the top of the GC? Survey says yes. So . . . he could be one.

But then there are riders who exist as GT contenders because of some good LT or VO2 max numbers and a need for journalists to turn out copy. Though there are many examples of these riders out there, perhaps Jean-Francois Bernard is the best example to bring up. Coddled and cuddled as Hinault's heir . . . he promptly got his lunch-money stolen from him by Andy Hampsten in the 86 tour and never lived up to his potential.

A last complicatiing factor: aging. the mantle of "5-ness" is fleeting.

So . . . who's on your list as the 5 REAL contenders this year?

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Comments

In order: Contador, Evans, Menchov, Sastre, Armstrong

by tedvdw on Jun 21, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A.Schleck, Kirchen and Kreuziger missing

Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder

by Frinking on Jun 21, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's my top 5, there is nobody missing.

by tedvdw on Jun 21, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In no particualr order

Contador (well okay, he was the first on the list)
Evans
Menchov
Sastre

So that’s the proven names taken care of, and now the fifth? I’m going to skip the old guard, including “Mr 7 will it be 8 ?”.

I’m also going to overlook those that have been hanging around waiting for their turn on the podium, sorry guys but if you haven’t made the step yet, then it is unlikely that you will soon. For the record I’m including Levi in this group. Just can’t see him being presented with the opportunities to do better than he has in the past.

Instead I’m going to look at the up and comers. Hard to go past a Schelck, I’ll go with Andy. He has shown the raw talent and he has some impressive forces behind him.

by muk on Jun 21, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

Contador, Evans, Sastre, Menchov, F Schleck

2nd 5: A Schleck, Leipheimer, Kreuziger, Gesink, Armstrong

by ursula on Jun 21, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Italians are reporting

that Franck might not start, due to knee troubles.

by Monty. on Jun 21, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oooh.

by ursula on Jun 21, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brian Nygaard tells Fränk to HTFU

Nygaard thinks Fränk is a bit overdramatic, that he had the same feelings at the Tour of Luxembourg and he still won that race. [Feltet]

Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja min who know how to twirl.

by TheFigurehead on Jun 21, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm,

Contador/Armstrong (acceptible?)
A. Schleck
Menchov
Evans
Sastre

by sminer on Jun 21, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lance would win because he is always in front

by adammoney on Jun 22, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...Contador, Sastre, Evans, Menchov, Kreuziger

with the Schlecks (Andy then Frank) and then Gesink close behind….Anybody else is either past their peak years or is prone to the famous bad day…The young guys are still maturing so a bad day might happen but over the coming years they will work it out.

by Vlaanderen90 on Jun 21, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Contador, A Schleck, Sastre, Lance, Evans

and I really only believe the first three

"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!

by jsallee00 on Jun 21, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bert, Evans, Sastre, Menchov, A. Schleck

Andy in white, Gesink in polka, Cav in green, and Astana in the team’s classification.
Oh yeah, I just predicted all jersey’s.

by Phil H. on Jun 21, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And ou had just 2 wrong

by Frinking on Jun 21, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Contador, Evans, Sastre, Kreuziger, Schlecklet

with LA a close 6th.

by itswells on Jun 21, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Contador, Sastre, Menchov, A. Schleck, Evans

The others could be at podium, but winning only these guys are capable. Sastre and Evans are the main doubts in this group of 5.

by semprenaroda on Jun 21, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ooh crud . . .

Now for the fun part: what reasoning do you use to come up with your contenders?

How does individual grinta combine with team smarts and resolve?

Who are the potential VdV’s this year? (Aside from Andy Schleck): i.e. the perennial super-domestiques making the adjustment to leadership roles . . .

by R Mc on Jun 21, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lance!

Someone from Caisse will put in a challenge I’m sure.
Efimikin might also put in a surprise

by d rod on Jun 21, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Contenders w/ grinta.

I think all the contenders mentioned so far have plenty grinta. A. Schleck is a little unknown in this department obviously and Frank lacks a little in my mind mostly because I’ve never really seen him pick it up a notch in the TT discipline. Evans, though he sounds like a fruitcake, actually has plenty of grinta too. Contador’s talent almost puts him above needing grinta, but I think the way things are playing out over in the Astana camp, or may play out, he will have to develop more and I think he will.

by sminer on Jun 21, 2009 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

grinta, but minimal descending skills

don’t know the route well enough, but gotta assume there’s a decent that he just can’t handle at speed.

by JFS_PGH on Jun 21, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re. Andy S grinta

He showed plenty hanging with the main contenders for the majority of the 07 Giro. There were days when he was quite obviously digging very deep and tried very hard not to make it show.

by Jens on Jun 23, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He won Liège on a solo break.

For me, that’s enough said on the grinta question. But agree that he went deep on a few of those Giro stages. He has the knack – a bit like Contador – of not showing how hard he is riding.

by gavia on Jun 23, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What, no one supports Thomas Voeckler!?

If referring to LE TOUR the five podium candidates based on even more scientific studies by me are determined to be: Contador, Menchov, Evans, Gesink, Sastre. A Schleck is close, but he will not crack the Top Five this year. Other riders to observe for Top Ten, the usual suspects: S Sanchez, Kirchen, Leipheimer, Krueziger; but they must beware Nibali, Zubeldia, F Schleck, and Montfort.

Mon coeur appartient à les forçats de la route.

by Josenka on Jun 21, 2009 7:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sammy isn't racing, just so you know

by Phil H. on Jun 21, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Curses!

Mon coeur appartient à les forçats de la route.

by Josenka on Jun 21, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That pisses me off, why no Sammy?

by sminer on Jun 21, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is putting all his focus into the Vuelta

and really I think he should, he can’t do much better than last year’s Tour and he has a real chance of winning the Vuelta, especially if Bert doesn’t ride.

by Phil H. on Jun 21, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, I need a main man for the Vuelta.

by sminer on Jun 21, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m actually starting to take Armstrong more seriously, this is based entirely on reading his twitter updates, there’s something about them – some combination of training and tone I guess – that makes me think he just might do very, very well.

by plinytheelder on Jun 21, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Smart man you are, because he's not going there just to get more Euro miles

by sminer on Jun 21, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hiya Sminer, seems you and I, and I think Pliny is saying the same,

are the only ones so far to rate LA right up there to duel with Bert.
Like I said below – Le TOUR Baby !

by peterfish on Jun 22, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The ELPMO's are cringing at the possibility.

Right now they are making their own voodoo dolls of LA. These are desperate and lonely times leading to the Tour, and the uncertainty and tension can lead to mania for some. Others will convince themselves that he can’t come back and contend for the coveted title again, but they will go mad from the doubt they cannot fully suppress. I will be here to ease them through their troubled times leading to and during Le Tour. It’s the least I can do, for Elmostrong is all about compassion for the troubled cycling fan, so consumed with hate and their love of cancer.

by sminer on Jun 23, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a certified Elmo hater

by Phil H. on Jun 23, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by rbjhan on Jun 23, 2009 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How can they hate this cycling advocate singing about the sport we all love?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ECK62aDJdI&feature=channel

Let’s hear it for Elmo, and drown out their hate with spinning hubs.

by sminer on Jun 23, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I may think Armstrong’s going to do well, but I’d still like another serving of hater-tots.

by plinytheelder on Jun 23, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You guys and your love for hater-tots

I hope you’re watching your intake of those things, I hear they can pack on the calories.

by sminer on Jun 24, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bert, Menchov, Sastre, Evans

do I have to come up with a 5th?
hmmmm…
Kreuziger then.

by rbjhan on Jun 21, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Contador vs Armstrong

thats it.
Le Tour Baby!

by peterfish on Jun 21, 2009 11:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Simple

Bert
Bert
Bert
Bert
Bert

OK, OK…
Bert
Cattle
Mench
Sastre
Dark Helmet

"…I saw bloody Cavendish coming, really fast…"
HH

by ELVISGOAT on Jun 21, 2009 11:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

poor Levi

no love from anyone yet….

by rbjhan on Jun 21, 2009 11:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

five?

Heh.

Contador, Evans, Sastre, Andy Schleck, Menchov

by gavia on Jun 22, 2009 12:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oscar Peirero

He did it before ………

Actually I think it may be exciting as I am not sure AC will be as dominating as some fear/hope.

OK – in order

1. Bert
2. Sastre
3. Evans (Podium – although he has no chance
to wn)
4. Menchov
5. Any schleck

sometimes life is a false flat

by Willj on Jun 22, 2009 2:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No no, "Any" Schleck will not do. Commit!

by tedvdw on Jun 22, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andy's mother

sometimes life is a false flat

by Willj on Jun 23, 2009 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

5 is an awkward number.

To me, there are 3 tiers.

1. Why the hell not?—Contador.

2. Definitely capable, if things go right—Menchov, Sastre, Evans

3. Possible, but there are serious questions—A Schleck, Armstrong, Kreuziger, Leipheimer

If I had to pick one from the third tier to be my #5, I guess Schleck.

by tgartner on Jun 22, 2009 3:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Consistency

We appear to be almost unanimous on the first four.

I wonder what we can read into that?

by muk on Jun 22, 2009 3:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eerie, isn't it?

by tedvdw on Jun 22, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My 5

Based on actually winning GT’s recently and grinta

Contador, Menchov, Sastre, Evans, Armstrong

Rest of the top-10?
Gesing, Kirchen, A Schleck and two others.

"Where there’s a will, there’s a way.": Alberto Contador, shortly after waking up from brain surgery.

by Lopex on Jun 22, 2009 7:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My 5 - going with heart.. need to stop that.. BUT hey..

1. A.Schleck
2. A Contador
3. D.Menchov
4. L.Armstrong
5. C.Sastre

"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"

Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009

by CycleGirl on Jun 22, 2009 7:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stunned!

Going with your heart and there’s no Evans? No love for the Aussie Battler?

Not even in the top 5?

Stunned.

by muk on Jun 23, 2009 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ohhh actually i forgot about him.. I'm stunned too.... damn it..

OK i’m changing, becuase holy crapp how did i forget.. bad day at work and friggin tiger helicopters suck…

1. A.Schleck
2. A Contador
3. C. Evans
4. L.Armstrong
5. C.Sastre

"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"

Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009

by CycleGirl on Jun 23, 2009 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ignore all of what i said.. I'm going new team..

"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"

Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009

by CycleGirl on Jun 23, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, I'll bite...

The order will be: Contador, Sastre, Evans, Armstrong and Levi….all competing for 2nd place of course, because anybody with half a brain knows that Mick Rogers is due to clean house….bigtime (again). ;-)

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 23, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs