The 5. Who are they?
by R Mc on Jun 21, 2009 11:28 AM EDT
Email
Print
Note: this is not an Ursula post. Expect no research. Expect no clear reasoning. Just a lame assertion followed by minimal support an then an invitation to discuss.
Lame Assertion:
The pool of cyclists actually capable of winning a Grand Tour--specifically le Tour--is always very small. Arbitrarily, I'm saying 5. The prime variables in my calculus for determining who is NOT on the list refer to primarily psychological rather than physiological characteristics. [Note: again, this 'calculus' I write of is purely a figment of my imagination--although I plan to package up some bogus test questions and interest profiles as the "McLamore battery" and offer it to Pro-Tour teams sorta like Gil Brandt cooked up scouting packages for the Dallas Cowboys after he got tired of taking baby photos].
more after the click
Part of the problem, then, is that it's never straight-forward about who the GT contenders COULD be. Could Spartacus be a GT contender? It depends on the model of winning a GT he plans to use. Certainly the Sastre model won't work, but the Indurain model might. But does Cancellara have the psychological tools to impose himself on the top of the GC? Survey says yes. So . . . he could be one.
But then there are riders who exist as GT contenders because of some good LT or VO2 max numbers and a need for journalists to turn out copy. Though there are many examples of these riders out there, perhaps Jean-Francois Bernard is the best example to bring up. Coddled and cuddled as Hinault's heir . . . he promptly got his lunch-money stolen from him by Andy Hampsten in the 86 tour and never lived up to his potential.
A last complicatiing factor: aging. the mantle of "5-ness" is fleeting.
So . . . who's on your list as the 5 REAL contenders this year?
62 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
A.Schleck, Kirchen and Kreuziger missing
Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder
In no particualr order
Contador (well okay, he was the first on the list)
Evans
Menchov
Sastre
So that’s the proven names taken care of, and now the fifth? I’m going to skip the old guard, including “Mr 7 will it be 8 ?”.
I’m also going to overlook those that have been hanging around waiting for their turn on the podium, sorry guys but if you haven’t made the step yet, then it is unlikely that you will soon. For the record I’m including Levi in this group. Just can’t see him being presented with the opportunities to do better than he has in the past.
Instead I’m going to look at the up and comers. Hard to go past a Schelck, I’ll go with Andy. He has shown the raw talent and he has some impressive forces behind him.
Mine
Contador, Evans, Sastre, Menchov, F Schleck
2nd 5: A Schleck, Leipheimer, Kreuziger, Gesink, Armstrong
The Italians are reporting
that Franck might not start, due to knee troubles.
Brian Nygaard tells Fränk to HTFU
Nygaard thinks Fränk is a bit overdramatic, that he had the same feelings at the Tour of Luxembourg and he still won that race. [Feltet]
Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja min who know how to twirl.
by TheFigurehead on Jun 21, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm...Contador, Sastre, Evans, Menchov, Kreuziger
with the Schlecks (Andy then Frank) and then Gesink close behind….Anybody else is either past their peak years or is prone to the famous bad day…The young guys are still maturing so a bad day might happen but over the coming years they will work it out.
Contador, A Schleck, Sastre, Lance, Evans
and I really only believe the first three
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
Bert, Evans, Sastre, Menchov, A. Schleck
Andy in white, Gesink in polka, Cav in green, and Astana in the team’s classification.
Oh yeah, I just predicted all jersey’s.
And ou had just 2 wrong
Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder
Contador, Sastre, Menchov, A. Schleck, Evans
The others could be at podium, but winning only these guys are capable. Sastre and Evans are the main doubts in this group of 5.
ooh crud . . .
Now for the fun part: what reasoning do you use to come up with your contenders?
How does individual grinta combine with team smarts and resolve?
Who are the potential VdV’s this year? (Aside from Andy Schleck): i.e. the perennial super-domestiques making the adjustment to leadership roles . . .
Contenders w/ grinta.
I think all the contenders mentioned so far have plenty grinta. A. Schleck is a little unknown in this department obviously and Frank lacks a little in my mind mostly because I’ve never really seen him pick it up a notch in the TT discipline. Evans, though he sounds like a fruitcake, actually has plenty of grinta too. Contador’s talent almost puts him above needing grinta, but I think the way things are playing out over in the Astana camp, or may play out, he will have to develop more and I think he will.
grinta, but minimal descending skills
don’t know the route well enough, but gotta assume there’s a decent that he just can’t handle at speed.
Re. Andy S grinta
He showed plenty hanging with the main contenders for the majority of the 07 Giro. There were days when he was quite obviously digging very deep and tried very hard not to make it show.
He won Liège on a solo break.
For me, that’s enough said on the grinta question. But agree that he went deep on a few of those Giro stages. He has the knack – a bit like Contador – of not showing how hard he is riding.
What, no one supports Thomas Voeckler!?
If referring to LE TOUR the five podium candidates based on even more scientific studies by me are determined to be: Contador, Menchov, Evans, Gesink, Sastre. A Schleck is close, but he will not crack the Top Five this year. Other riders to observe for Top Ten, the usual suspects: S Sanchez, Kirchen, Leipheimer, Krueziger; but they must beware Nibali, Zubeldia, F Schleck, and Montfort.
Mon coeur appartient à les forçats de la route.
He is putting all his focus into the Vuelta
and really I think he should, he can’t do much better than last year’s Tour and he has a real chance of winning the Vuelta, especially if Bert doesn’t ride.
I’m actually starting to take Armstrong more seriously, this is based entirely on reading his twitter updates, there’s something about them – some combination of training and tone I guess – that makes me think he just might do very, very well.
Hiya Sminer, seems you and I, and I think Pliny is saying the same,
are the only ones so far to rate LA right up there to duel with Bert.
Like I said below – Le TOUR Baby !
The ELPMO's are cringing at the possibility.
Right now they are making their own voodoo dolls of LA. These are desperate and lonely times leading to the Tour, and the uncertainty and tension can lead to mania for some. Others will convince themselves that he can’t come back and contend for the coveted title again, but they will go mad from the doubt they cannot fully suppress. I will be here to ease them through their troubled times leading to and during Le Tour. It’s the least I can do, for Elmostrong is all about compassion for the troubled cycling fan, so consumed with hate and their love of cancer.
How can they hate this cycling advocate singing about the sport we all love?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ECK62aDJdI&feature=channel
Let’s hear it for Elmo, and drown out their hate with spinning hubs.
I may think Armstrong’s going to do well, but I’d still like another serving of hater-tots.
by plinytheelder on Jun 23, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
You guys and your love for hater-tots
I hope you’re watching your intake of those things, I hear they can pack on the calories.
Simple
Bert
Bert
Bert
Bert
Bert
OK, OK…
Bert
Cattle
Mench
Sastre
Dark Helmet
"…I saw bloody Cavendish coming, really fast…"
HH
Oscar Peirero
He did it before ………
Actually I think it may be exciting as I am not sure AC will be as dominating as some fear/hope.
OK – in order
1. Bert
2. Sastre
3. Evans (Podium – although he has no chance
to wn)
4. Menchov
5. Any schleck
sometimes life is a false flat
5 is an awkward number.
To me, there are 3 tiers.
1. Why the hell not?—Contador.
2. Definitely capable, if things go right—Menchov, Sastre, Evans
3. Possible, but there are serious questions—A Schleck, Armstrong, Kreuziger, Leipheimer
If I had to pick one from the third tier to be my #5, I guess Schleck.
Consistency
We appear to be almost unanimous on the first four.
I wonder what we can read into that?
My 5
Based on actually winning GT’s recently and grinta
Contador, Menchov, Sastre, Evans, Armstrong
Rest of the top-10?
Gesing, Kirchen, A Schleck and two others.
"Where there’s a will, there’s a way.": Alberto Contador, shortly after waking up from brain surgery.
My 5 - going with heart.. need to stop that.. BUT hey..
1. A.Schleck
2. A Contador
3. D.Menchov
4. L.Armstrong
5. C.Sastre
"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"
Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009
Stunned!
Going with your heart and there’s no Evans? No love for the Aussie Battler?
Not even in the top 5?
Stunned.
Ohhh actually i forgot about him.. I'm stunned too.... damn it..
OK i’m changing, becuase holy crapp how did i forget.. bad day at work and friggin tiger helicopters suck…
1. A.Schleck
2. A Contador
3. C. Evans
4. L.Armstrong
5. C.Sastre
"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"
Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009
Ignore all of what i said.. I'm going new team..
"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"
Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009
Ok, I'll bite...
The order will be: Contador, Sastre, Evans, Armstrong and Levi….all competing for 2nd place of course, because anybody with half a brain knows that Mick Rogers is due to clean house….bigtime (again). ;-)
LOL Ohh trust you to remind me of Mick....Another one i forgot..my head must be filled with too much wine..
Finally pick, locked in: Ohhh Koppenberg34 We will see mick in Yellow at the TdF :-))
1.A.Schleck
2.A.Contador
3.C.Evans
4.L.Armstrong
5.M.Rogers
"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"
Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009
Now that's more like it
I wonder if you can be trusted to define a top 5 for the points jersey? Think carefully :-)
"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi
Ok i'll get back to you on that..
"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"
Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009
Thanx, It is one of my favourite pics from many pics..
You know i would bite, as soon as you mentioned mick.. but i stand that he wil be in yellow during this tour..
"the rest was over 30. And that doesn't mean old and useless, but experienced and with the stamina"
Jens! Voigt, Crit Intl Interview, 2009
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
![This is funny on so many levels. [Html should open bigger]](http://cdn3.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/239959/flagged_small.jpg)
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
