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Around SBN: Randy Moss A Raven?

Driving That Train: Beyond the Engine


Le-tour_mediumI'm gonna learn this story template sooner or later.  Anyway, I thought about quoting from REM instead of the Dead, but oh well . . . I've been in a Phish phase, so jam band it is.

The last post was about identifying the real contenders.  If you're interested, this one is an invitation to wrap some pixelated type around the psychological characteristics that go into winning a GT.

Star-divide

There seem to be 3 basic strategic approaches to winning a Grand Tour--which I'll label the Merckx/Hinault, Indurain, and Armstrong methods.  All 3 methods have worked--but part of the task for a director and contender is to figure out what sort of psychological profile they are working with and adapt to that

Method 1:  Merckx/Hinault:  never waste an opportunity to inflict harm on your opponents.  Definitely the highest physiological stress option, but this strategy has the benefit of reducing your opponents to quaking masses of indecision by the latter stages of a race.  Non-GT example:  in the finale of the 1981 Paris-Roubaix, HInault runs into a loose dog going through a turn and crashes.  After the fastest remount I've ever seen, Hinault chases back--this despite the presence of Moser trying to drive the pace.  Within 500m of rejoining the group (with no follow car assistance or anything else).  Hinault is back on the front and his pull drops two riders:  In sum, the psychological profile for this method:  "strategy? My strategy is to pummel you repeatedly, you ok with that?"  Riders for whom it does not work:  Chiapucci, Valverde, Vinokourov.

Method 2: the Indurain method.  I thought about calling this one the Menchov method.  It's sort of the rope-a-dope response to the Merckx/Hinault method.  In other words, it's all about taking punishment and hanging on until your opponent over-reaches.  Of course, as Evans and Leipheimer have learned to their cost, when your opponent over-reaches, you have to shift out of punching-bag mentality long enough to land a blow yourself.

Method 3:  Oh crud, I seem to have turned into a Hegelian, since the Armstrong method is sort of a synthesis of the proceeding two, with the addition of a team strategy.  Instead of waiting out the opposition the Armstrong (and you have to give Bruyneel credit too) approach is to use your team to dictate when and where the signficant attacks will happen--and save your leader's energy for only THOSE places.  After that, you use your team as a bunch of surrogate Hinaults (or picadors, to vary the combat metaphor slightly) to control your opponents--or goad them into making a blunder.  Riis and Sastre notably adopted this method last year--gambling that they could wring victory out of just one stage of the tour.

So, did I come close to suggesting what is becoming the most fascinatiing part of Grand Tour racing: the match of psychological abilities with strategic choices?

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OK folks

here we go. New grafix, Tour analysis underway. Get ready…

Abruzziamo!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 24, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions  

p.s.

I am going to create a feature collecting all of our Tour de France preview material. If you write any sort of preview/analysis, I’ll add a link to the collection. By the time we’re done, we should have a collection of posts that will blow away the annual dull-as-dishwater, name/rank/serial number preview VN sells every year for ten bucks.

Abruzziamo!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 24, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

In answer to your question, Yes.

I’ve noticed the “excitement level for us race fans” is directly correlated to your rankings as well.

An interesting note: pre-cancer, I thought Lance pretty much fit the mold of a Merckx/Hinault style of rider.

Useless final thought, when I think of Merckx, I think about Wilt Chamberlin scoring 100 points…can anyone name any of their teammates?

by swells on Jun 24, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions  

hey Chamberlain became a pretty good passer

by the end of his career! ;)

Also, isn’t the reason Merckx never won Paris-Tours (I think that’s the one) because that’s the one race he’d reward his teammates with, i.e. work as a domestique for them as a reward for all their hard work the rest of the year? I know it sounds kind of meagre…but that’s what happens when you literally want to win every race, and basically do so by riding away from the field, every single time… ;)

oh ps in response to your question: Tom Simpson! (though that was at the very beginning of his career so doesn’t count ;)

by plinytheelder on Jun 24, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I haven't read this yet but before I do just want to say- the psychological aspect is

my favorite part of the Tour. Its a grand social experiment every year. Love it.

by ZoeRochelle on Jun 24, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions  

Sorry but what Sastre and Riis did was nothing like the blue train

that would be simplifying things too much, but apart from that it was a good read.

by OctaBech on Jun 24, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions  

I think that they did for that stage

or at least they adopted a more attacking version of it—and you could see them setting it up for a few stages previous.

Actually, I find that attacking version much more interesting than watching one team grind it out for four hours to set up a 30 minute attack.

by R Mc on Jun 24, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree that both share the same goal; to force the decisive attack to be where it's suited the most for their GC rider

But instead of a strong train Riis reach the goal by preventing the competition from using the support car, lure the competition focus on the wrong riders and sets up traps in areas where his riders usually are weakest, taking the competition by surprise.

by OctaBech on Jun 24, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Leaving out the Pantani / Gaul style

It is one that has worked less given radios, but just have high enough mountains so you can just fly away and take big time. It is a much riskier low percentage method, but if a rider can do it will give them a chance. I think the percentages for this have gone down given race strategies.

No one tried it against Armstrong. I always wondered if Pantani had somehow kept himself around if this wasn’t the real way to counter the big train method. Just ride it out, then attack right away in the big mountains. I think Armstrong kind of thought that and that was why he would try to pre-empt this himself by going hard in the first big climb.

By the way Al Attles and Guy Rodgers were on that Philly Warriors Team with Wilt. Not bad players at all. Guy came to the Bucks when they were created and I was a kid, so I remember him talking about that game. The Knicks center was sick with the flu so they had two forwards try to guard Wilt. The Warriors were feeding him deliberately.

by Markk on Jun 24, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions  

M.Pantani/C.Gaul style

Good point, and in my opinion, a perfect example of Andy Schlecks best (only) chance to see some yellow.

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 24, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kyllingen

This was the method Rasmussen used to take yellow in 2007 too.

by bryan_e on Jun 24, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Race radios

  They play heavily into the Armstrong (I’d prefer it be called what it REALLY is, the “Bruyneel Strategy”, but at least we’re on the same page – I’m not a hair splitter) strategy that you’ve accurately outlined. Without them, a huge psychological “crutch” is pulled like a keystone in a roman arch. Maybe not a complete domino effect, but for Postal/Discovery/Astana, a major obstacle nonetheless. Interesting that (is it two stages?) the no radio experiment is allegedly underway…
  As for Hinault/Merckx, why the in the hell would they NEED a radio at all? Real shot callers don’t need to get permission for anything. I was always mildly disappointed in the way Armstrong always felt the need to get crafty in order to exercise his strategies. Bravado needs no tricks. Remember when he faked fatigue,squirly at the back, acting “pannicked”, looking for “the Johan unbilical cord” and declaring “radio problems” on Alpe d’Huez prior to his “LOOK”? You couldn’t have gotten Merckx to pull a cheesy stunt like that in order to increase the chances of an attack succeeding. Faking ANYTHING is lame, unless you just don’t have any reservations about admitting to having a lack of talent. Armstrong could have ridden like Merckx or Hinault at any of his Tours, but without the confidence or character, we saw him ride with an un-needed safety net of crafty, tricky, sneaky passive aggressive booby-traps.
  Incidently, I could have sworn I remember Di Luca (this is partly unrelated – sorry) claiming to be a radio-free rider (noble or stupid, call it what you will, I thought it was cool if nothing else), at least last year if I’m not mistaken….yet unless it was a prop (lol) he seemed to employ one at the Giro this year – what gives?

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 24, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions  

The Rope-a-dope?

I know, I know - Muhammad Ali was SUCH a passive-aggressive coward when he took out Foreman!

I hate to dash the praise heaped on Bruyneel, but I think the Armstrong strategy - and make no mistake, this element of it was distinctly Armstrong - was to run his team like a corporation.

Hinault and Merckx were alpha-male tribal war party leaders. Armstrong stepped up and moved his game into the twenny-first century.

He ran his shit like a true cut-throat corporate raider - he swiped and hired his best competition, he had components manufacturers blanketing us in press releases about how epically retarded all his gear was, and he engaged successfully in morale-destroying interviews, in print and on TV.

And then he had the legs and single-minded petty nerve to ride your legs off at the knees if you so much as half-wheeled him on a training ride (just like Merckx, Hinault, and Lemond used to).

By 2000, Armstrong had the peloton cowed even before the race began. Those long, single-day fliers that Merckx, Bahamontes, Pantani, JaJa used to take (and which often led to Epic Fails) were unnecessary.

Finally, this brings me to another consideration - given the Merckx/Hinault, Indurain, Armstrong approaches to winning a Tour, where do Lemond’s 3-baggers fit in?

regards,
jason

by 72andSunny on Jun 24, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, not to be TOO snarky

one of Lemond’s wins was really an Hinault win: I’ve been on sort of an Hinault kick, and re-watched the 86 Alpe stage: Hinault towed Lemond up the ENTIRE climb—and there are points on that climb where I’d swear that Lemond is thinking “Damn I hope he doesn’t drop me here.”

The other two wins are somewhere between Merckx and Menchov, if I’d have to label them. That may be why the 89 tour is SUCH a good race: it was truly a battle. Now imagine what it would have been like had Delgado made it on time for his prologue . . .

by R Mc on Jun 24, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

uh ...

rope a dope was the 3rd and last ali-frazier. Ali used the loose ropes (in the thrilla in manilla if i remember correctly) to hang back and curl up and let frazier tire himself out.

by yeehoo on Jun 24, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ali first used rope a dope on Foreman

    because he knew he could wear him out. Foreman hardly had to fight past the fourth round in any of his fights he was such a big punch/knockout artist.

If Jens! Voigt was a planet, he' be the "World of Hurt"

by flying dog on Jun 24, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah what’s that film that came out about that fight a few years ago, good film, might just be called Rumble in the Jungle.

by plinytheelder on Jun 24, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

When We Were Kings

"The road is our agony, but also our daily bread; and at night, when it is deserted and the moon glistens on the asphalt, the ridiculous dreams of racers like us pass up and down it."

--Dino Buzzati

by nrs5000 on Jun 24, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

one of my favorite lines among many

I’m so bad, I make medicine sick.

—Muhammed Ali

"The road is our agony, but also our daily bread; and at night, when it is deserted and the moon glistens on the asphalt, the ridiculous dreams of racers like us pass up and down it."

--Dino Buzzati

by nrs5000 on Jun 25, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can save yourself a lot of time by just saying "I'm an ELPMO"

Then you don’t have to write things like “Race radios, they play heavily into the… Johan umbilical cord… Faking ANYTHING is lame… crafty, tricky, sneaky passive aggressive booby-traps.” I mean really, this is nothing but a lame character assassination.

by sminer on Jun 24, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would be a bit tedious tho

With threads like
-I’m an ELPMO
-I’m an ELMMO
-STFU, I’m an ELPMO
-You STFU, I’m an ELMMO

Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja min who know how to twirl.

by TheFigurehead on Jun 24, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok tiger, easy now...

Character assasination? Nope, I didn’t make absurd claims in the least…LA’s crafty strategies were part of his style – it’s not really a debatable issue, it’s a historical fact. It is my opinion that he had the pure ability to win without all of the insurance measures, that is all. I agree with 72andSunny’s added point that he raised the bar to the 21st century, at least when it came to the identifying new variables that he illustrated were “fair game” when it came to winning at all costs. Why would you defend the notion that “faking” is something noble by definition? I’m not trying to make this more philosophical than it should be, but can you deny that race radio’s are a bit of an umbilical cord?? It’s no secret that LA had Johan on the other end of the communiue, how is that an assasination of his character? It’s in the true nature of mature discussion and debate that I make what is honestly a rather conservative assessment of tactics that LA himself openly admits without reservation, were a part of his unorthodox tactical strategy. So….take a deep breath, Lance is going to be ok…

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 24, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

....uhboy....

  Ah-hmph…well, I realize that you have a lot of passion for speaking as a proponent of LA – no problem there, it’s obviously your right. I’d like to just take a moment and thank you for getting us off of the whole “cycling theme” and onto the true issue at hand… I wanted to offer you my sincere apology for upsetting you with my use of “capital letters”. What was I thinking? Such an oversight….setting you off like that…I am just sooo sorry is all. I’ll get my act together – from now on its all lowercase, ok? if you will allow me a humble suggestion…next time you find your blood pressure rising as a result of the type of punctuation, case, spelling, or other percieved gramatical discrepancies, get your bike out, and actually go for a ride…it’s liberating as well as clarifying. i have two spares that i don’t even use – i’d consider loaning either out for somebody that really needs it (maybe you, uh? awww…c’mon, maaaayyybeee???). you’ll feel so much better, mark my words, and those petty issues with grammar and the like wont seem so “serious” to you anymore. just give it a thought, i’m here for you if you are ready to reach out. be well.

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 24, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry for the break in action... this is pretty funny... from my perspective.

I just came back from a short recovery ride to find another long winded comment from you about how I should get out on my bike (I found that amusing). Blood pressure never rose over your comments, a little right now maybe, but not over LA. I don’t have a lot of passion as a proponent for LA, I typically laugh at most everything said about him here along with everyone else. Although there are a few I think with some serious and rediculous hate issues towards him. For the most part, it’s just your usual " I hate this rider because…" All you did was attack LA’s character, you admit his talent throughout your comment above, you just deduse that he wins were achieved with trickery because he had no confidence or character. And that’s historical fact?

Thanks for the bike offer, ass-umer, but my team supplies me with a new one every other year.

by sminer on Jun 24, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

hey, wait a sec, what's the big idea?

hey, what’s the deal dude? i thought we were bros now, and thought we like…you know…were going to be really good friends now and stuff, yet in your first message to me following my declaration not to upset you by using capital letters, you go and use 21 of them. not cool my new bff. i’ll give you a pass this time though, cuz that’s what bros do.

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 25, 2009 5:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

forgot to mention

first of all…..drum roll please!!!…..congratulations on the high budget team (i sure would have loved to use some capitals there, but it’s not worth the risk this early on), i think i can speak for most when i say how dang proud i am of you! oh, and as for the “ass-umer” burn, boy, i guess i really walked right into that one huh? i’m totally “moded”!! clever and totally original, breaking up that word (assume) like you did! i just love it! it’s a great feeling when you think up a good one like that isn’t it

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 25, 2009 5:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I really don't have to interupt this discussion...

Hardly knows where the discussion is about.. But second sort of fight, there are probably thousand better words, in a small periode.. Where is the love arround here… Correct me when I’m wrong.. I’m new here you know (:

Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder

by Frinking on Jun 25, 2009 6:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

hmmm

are you getting too excited over the proposal thingy?

by rbjhan on Jun 25, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ha.. You got me.. Trying to get everyone in the right mood for the wedding..

I don’t want fights you know..

Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder

by Frinking on Jun 25, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

L'ouch

Being scolded by Frinking for being childish.

"Where there’s a will, there’s a way.": Alberto Contador, shortly after waking up from brain surgery.

by Lopex on Jun 25, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lol.. Someone has to take responsibilty for the harm here! ;)

Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder

by Frinking on Jun 25, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

"high budget team"... I really did walk into that remark...

…yea I sure suck, cause as a 46 yr. old small bus. owner, I can’t get a gig riding for a big budget team.

by sminer on Jun 25, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um, you did parade the "my team buys me a bike" line.

Do you get the feeling that most of the people posting here get bought bikes by their teams? No? Then you, in comparison, are on a big budget team.

So he’s not being snarky about your team, he’s pointing out that you’re getting on your high horse (or high bike) in response to a pretty nice, de-escalating sort of post. He invites you to ride, you tell him you’re better than that, and you don’t need an invitation or a bike (more or less). Sort of, “take your virtual invite and shove it.”

by JFS_PGH on Jun 28, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

i enjoyed his commentary

and don’t agree it was just a lame character assassination. plus koppenberg has learned to use paragraphs and i can now read his comments which i now know are worth reading. Yay!

by yeehoo on Jun 24, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks, I needed that ;-)

especially after the total thrashing I took with that “ass-umer” dig.

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 25, 2009 5:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

if you can

make those paragraphs a bit shorter, that would be even better! I know, I know, too much to ask….

but really my friend, sometimes you need to ignore things….like the name calling ones…..apparently dark helmet can do no wrong and is above criticism…

by rbjhan on Jun 25, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can I call you Koppi? I keep forgetting which Koppenberg I'm dealing with.

Sminer is sort of famous for assuming the worst about the intentions of posters in back-and-forth exchanges, and also for underestimating the “flame quotient” of his own posts. We like him anyway. But don’t take it too personally. Or rather, read for the content, which is often pretty solid & detailed & well informed, not the invective and personalizations.

And Sminer, Koppi / Koppenberg34 is new. If he’s laying it on a bit rich for your tastes, you could negotiate, rather than excalating / basically telling him to STFU.

by JFS_PGH on Jun 28, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

How about you stop making personal attacks against people who disagree with you...

…and make an argument. The rule is no personal attacks. You called me a troll, this guy an ELPMO, and frankly those are both personal attacks being offered in response to people who are making claims about riders, not other posters. The tone of this is inappropriate, and not appreciated.

by Ed K on Jun 24, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I seem to remember that Annual Rules Gentle Reminder notice going up

exactly at the same time you were involved in some rather heated dialogue with some other PdC patrons yourself. As far as the troll comment I made awhile back, I explained myself then that it wasn’t a personal attack and it wasn’t. And I didn’t even use the term correctly as I remember. As far as ELPMO, please, how many poeple have I put on that list. That’s become a term of endearment, whether you see it that way or not. But if you want to call a rules committee meeting about it and get me thrown out of the Tour, geez.

Glad you’re not debating it any further, hope your not saying I can’t have my say though.

by sminer on Jun 24, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah- hmph, not quite done...

Just noticed you included “most” in your derogatory comment about being proud of me and the team I ride for. I don’t think most cyclists would be so disparaging towards another cyclist who rides their bike fast enough that someone is willing to let them have a $5,000.00 ride, completely outfit them, pay for the races and events they participate in, and keep their bike tuned and true (because about all I can do is change a flat). I know there are a lot of guys out there in the amateur racing scene that don’t think that’s such a bad deal. I know Koppenberg34, because I’m out there racing with them. Speak for yourself, go ahead, and insult the rest of amatuer cycling why don’t you.

And sorry Frinking, I promise I won’t be childish and disruptive at least through the actual ceremony.

by sminer on Jun 25, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um, Sminer?

you already got praised for being on a real team—except you thought it was a dig.

Here’s a thought experiment. If you assume someone on line is being nice, when they mean to be nasty, you might be extra happy by accident. You might accidentally be too nice to them in return. And we might all accidentally have a slightly cheerier day that any of us deserve.

Alternatively, if someone’s trying to be nice or conciliatory, and you assume they’re fucking with your head, and you’re nasty back, we can all have a slightly nastier day than any of us deserve. But hey, at least you can be sure didn’t get punked (by someone you don’t know, will never meet, and don’t have to care about anyway).

However, I’d say that increasing the overall nastiness means you’re punking yourself (no, I know that’s not generally literally possible, even with great flexibility). Or you’re doing it to the universe, and it’s returning the favor. So anyway, maybe you can boot up your slack-cutter when you boot up your computer, and save the killer instinct for racing.

P.S. If, at some point, someone teases you for not knowing how to fix your own bikes, you’ll know where they got the information ; )

by JFS_PGH on Jun 28, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Reading that "Um, Sminer?" comment...

…was like peering into a musette bag – carefully packed with a balance of succinctly articulated logic and capped off with a sweet comic morsel for desert. PdC feed-zone feng-shui if you will.

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 28, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

"boot up your slack-cutter"

Good advice and well taken. (pretty sure it was a dig though)

And if someone teases me on my total lack of mechanic skills, I will hunt them down. :)

by sminer on Jun 28, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I always look forward to that.

by swells on Jun 25, 2009 6:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

What's keeping her?

"Where there’s a will, there’s a way.": Alberto Contador, shortly after waking up from brain surgery.

by Lopex on Jun 26, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Was it so obvious?

Camping. New mexico. Now, play nice, and if you hit each other, use the foam sticks and the wiffle bats.

by JFS_PGH on Jun 28, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Even biased analysis is analysis

And can be enlightening.

I don’t see that people need to post warnings stating that they love or hate Lance, before they’re allowed to do race analysis. I also bet that Koppenberg-some-number could, if you asked, describe a Lance win that did impress him. Or anyway, you could ask.

by JFS_PGH on Jun 28, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fun read, thanks!

Somewhere here last year, we said that to race a grand tour is to have an argument about how to win a grand tour. It’s certainly part of the fun of watching the long stage races, to see the strategies unfold over the three weeks. The most successful riders find the strategy that matches their characteristics best.

by Jen See on Jun 24, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions  

How much is this even strategy?

Last year was impressive because it reflected a three-week plan, in some level of detail. The year before was no strategy at all; it sort of fell in Contador’s lap. 2006… I don’t think they had a race that year, did they? Prior to that it was seven years of the cookie-cutter Bruyneel deal.

Some Tours are won by planning, but I wouldn’t underestimate the need to chuck the plan out the window in a hurry. I get that guys preview stages so they can plan, but that only narrows the variables a bit.

Abruzziamo!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 24, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

For sure

There is always improvisation – you have to race the race that is, not the race you wish for. Eh, something like that anyway. It’s too early in the morning to write something pithy and smart and stuff.

But you do see riders who use their specific talents – heh, I mean, how can you be a fan of Di Luca and not see this? ;-) Sastre is best in the third week, and in the high mountains. Di Luca is an attacker. Menchov is all steadylike. Contador is best in the hills.

So, I meant the idea of strategy in a broad sense, not in the specific I’m going to attack right here, right now sense. Indeed, trying to plan that specifically is frequently a recipe for disaster in bike racing. The best riders combine a deep understanding of their talents and limits, flexibility to adapt to circumstances, and the ability to make decisions and commit to them.

by Jen See on Jun 24, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

conta best in the steeps... not the hills

conta not too good when inclines are low percentages

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Jun 24, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

is he really not too good,

or just not capable of blowing people away there?

by yeehoo on Jun 24, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

he can hold his own on the hills, but like any true goat, he needs the steeps to get away

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Jun 24, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

He’s tiny. All lungs and muscle. But there’s only so much muscle you can put on a frame like that (unlike, say, Cancellara, who seems to have several spare rump-roasts worth of muscle in those shorts). So the absolute power is limited.

Of course, the lungs come into their own, and the muscle vs weight balance tips, when the hills get steep, steeper, and steepest.

by JFS_PGH on Jun 28, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

From the title of this post, I was sure it was referencing Boonen in some way.

That would be tiresome.

Speaking of tiresome: Mentioning that Evans and Leipheimer have to throw punches. They are riding their asses off within their capabilities. They are very successful at what they do because they are doing what gav mentions… using a strategy that matches their characteristics. To say that Levi or Cadel would have won a GT by now if they would only fly off the front on a long 12% climb or something of that nature is ludicrous.

R Mc, I know you weren’t saying that at all, I just saw the door opened for that kind of arguing.

by sminer on Jun 24, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not to be contrary for no purpose, I hope . . .

but that’s exactly what I meant: if you’re going to rope-a-dope (or hang on in the wheels) the only way you can win is to take time somewhere. For Indurain, that was usually the time trials (same with Menchov—and with Leipheimer in the 01 Vuelta).

I’m not saying it’s easy—but to win this way you’ve got to recognize when the right time to attack is—which is an art in itself AND have the capacity to do so. That’s why I’m becoming more and more impressed with Menchov’s Giro victory: he took everything that DiLuca threw at him—and counter-attacked on occasion.

For whatever reason, neither Evans or Leipheimer can seal the deal on that. I rate Evans mroe highly, because he at least tries to attack. Veering purely into psychological speculation, though, I suspect that he’s hindered by the memory of that huge implosion in the ‘02 Giro. It’s hard to really let loose with everything if you have a visceral experience of total melt-down.

by R Mc on Jun 24, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

This line lack the real time understanding that these two actually do attack

THey just don’t manage to ride people off their wheel when they attack in the GT setting.

I like Levi as a person and rider (based on what you get for info as afan), but they both lack the sudden explosion needed to get a large enough gap to ride away. So when they do attack (and they both have documented that they do), they don’t get far enough ahead to stay away. Plus Levi is in the model of a TT who needs to hold on in the High Mtns. SO in his case especially, he’s not getting needed space in the TT going into the Mtns.

Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland

by natbla on Jun 24, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perhaps that's the problem, they attack at the wrong places at the wrong time

and bet on small attacks instead of making longer more persistent attacks.

Evans making a short but quick acceleration attack on a steep climb isn’t the smartest thing to do when the competitor is Valverde.
It’s as futile as trying to throw off Bonen in Paris Roubaix by making sprint attacks.

by OctaBech on Jun 24, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah watching cadel

try to attack valverde and contador on those climbs towards the end of the dauphine … well it was nice to see him try, and you have to give him credit for at least trying i guess, but it was obvious that he just doesn’t have it to pull that off – and you could just see that it wasn’t going anywhere. (of course this is better than watching him hang on a wheel and not try …) This perhaps goes back to what RMc is saying in that you have to know where and how you can attack.

If there is an answer for cadel and levi, they haven’t figured it out yet. But maybe they just don’t have it. Neither for gaining enough time on the tt’s, nor for long sustained attacks in the mountains, and obviously not for accelerating attacks on steep climbs.

by yeehoo on Jun 24, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

If you don’t have the fast twitch fibers and the high anerobic capacity, you can’t do that initial jump on the uphills. Still leaves open the possibility of taking a chance on a hairy downhill, a la SamSan.

by JFS_PGH on Jun 28, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's capacity that I'm talking about.

Menchov has won and just won again because he has the capacity. Timing is everything, I’m sure we’ve sat there watching Evans or Levi in a position to win and thought “attack here and you win”. They were probably sitting in their saddle suffering like a bitch trying to give birth to a breached baby thinking “if I could attack here I’d win”.

And I like they way you say you’re admittedly veering into psychological speculation. I think that is a good example though of how sportsmen can lose their edge or nerve and hold themselves back for fear of total failure.

by sminer on Jun 24, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Timing Is everything

and the most brilliant strategies imaginable are useless without the legs to carry them out.

"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!

by jsallee00 on Jun 24, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not entirely useless

The rider can share his/her brilliance with the less brilliant but stronger riders on the team. :) Sorry for being mr. Obvious, couldn’t help myself.

by OctaBech on Jun 24, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.

When you look at Levi especially, people are on him for not being Contador, riding away from people. Well he isn’t. And I think he actually has used his talent really well over his career. I think Cadel is a little more talented. Still people say he needs to attack at different places? Where then? He has to ride his legs not somebody elses.

by Markk on Jun 24, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

it's tough when your strong points are common strong points in the peloton.

That’s not a silly statement—even if he starves, he’s not going to morph into Bert’s body. He can do leg presses all he wants, and it won’t graft on Spartacus’s ass. And we all have a fairly innate balance of slow and fast-twitch muscle. You can build on what you have, but you can’t really exchange one for the other.

Levi’s got a biking good body, and he’s small, so he can climb OK, but he doesn’t strike me as an extreme ectomorph by nature. You know how that picture of ricco makes us cringe? (The one that does not ever again need to be posted, I mean). OK, the speed burst was the Cera, but he’s got climber-body, also. Not a nice climber body like Bert, but…climber body. And then there’s Cadel, who defies all explanation. He must have twice the heart of anyone else, because he’s got a kinda non-cyclist body. You know you can always pick him out as “the stumpy dude with the graceless non-style” even if he’s too mud-covered to see the team or the number or the face. I admire his grit / grinta, and I don’t think there’s anything he could or should be doing that he’s not already doing. (Well, except for booking a time machine and convincing his parents to go with a sperm or egg donor, ideally someone with longer legs.)

by JFS_PGH on Jun 28, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Valid. Not much to argue with there.

  Riding “strategy” isn’t a synonym for riding “style”. Strategies are wafers of philosophy when compared to genetic/learned, DNA fortified “style”. Let’s face it, none of the ten or so GC hopes for this year’s tour can be faulted for not employing the Hinault/Merckx “method” of riding.

by Koppenberg34 on Jun 24, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions  

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