Why Not Me? [Updated!]

In case you're new around here, let me emphasize that this is a community blog. Were it otherwise -- say, a soapbox for Ursula, Majope, Gav, me and others -- well, it would still kick some ass, but not as much. No, our strength is our chorus of voices. In that spirit, I am announcing a group preview project:
Tell me why -- and why not -- your favorite rider will win the Tour de France. We'll get around to power polls later in the race, but let's take a good look at all the favorites. Notice, that's the favorites, and your favorite: this project is intended to cover the guys worth covering, but reasonable minds might differ on who they all are, and anyway if there's a guy you just really want to write about as a GC contender, have at it. This post will serve as the master locator, and as new Why Not Me?s come in they will be linked to here. The candidates:
- Alberto Contador
- Lance Armstrong
- Levi Leipheimer
- Cadel Evans
- Carlos Sastre
- Denis Menchov
- Robert Gesink
- Andy Schleck
- Frank Schleck
- Luis Leon Sanchez
- Kim Kirchen
- Mikel Astarloza
- Christian VandeVelde
- Roman Kreuziger
- Linus Gerdemann
- er, Tom Boonen
- Bradley Wiggins!
- Filippo Pozzato
- Thomas Voeckler
- Daniele Bennati
- Fabian Cancellara
As new names come in, I'll add them. And to establish the template, I'll go first. You go next: make a fanpost, and tell us why your guy will and/or won't win. Follow the Andy Schleck version, above. I will link your post to the list here. This invitation/challenge is open to everyone, from the editors to someone who just created a login this morning. Have at it!
UPDATED! Well, this has turned into one of the more spirited efforts in PdC history... inside of 18 hours and you guys have fairly well flooded the site with rider previews. Sure, they tend to get a little less serious as you get further down the list -- another PdC tradition. Awesome job either way. Let's finish this off. I am removing a bunch of the earlier ones from the front page and reposting the full set of links instead, for organization's sake.
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Voeckler!
Because it would be soooo cool..
Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder
Alberto Contador will win: do I need to explain why?
best stage race rider around and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins more GT’s than Lance in his career(maybe not 7 Tour’s) and he may even be seen as a greater GT rider than Lance when all is said and done. But that’s for the future to decide, right now I know no 38 year old fart is beating him! If Astana lets him down his future team will be there to make sure he signs with them after next year their fellow Spaniard wins.
Lance will win - why - because he is Lance
Contador will win – why – because he is Contador.
It will be a battle royale I predict.
I think Phil is right: logically, statistically, everythingly with reason points to Bert winning, but Lance has PASSION like no other (like the Badger-Blaireau without so much of the meaness shall we say), maybe that can overcome the fart factor?
(from Peterfish a 50 year old fart ex-cat 1, raced for La Redoute Motobecane elite amateur club in Roubaix 1983) – not bragging, but just finally outing myself after 6 months of PdCafe posting – and loving every minute !)
does that mean you have one of those dope blue and green jerseys?
by plinytheelder on Jul 2, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
wow that's awesome dude!
as for the interest…well, I think they might be a bit snug on me! ;) I often see those jerseys on ebay and am always tempted if they’re wool…problem is the bids always get ridiculously high, guess there are a lot of people who share my love of that kit, it’s a good one!
by plinytheelder on Jul 2, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
hahahahahahahahaha
That was 1983, it is now WAY snug on me DUDE !!
I am almost sure it is not 100% wool, feels like some wool blend maybe, the label is all blurry now.
Thanks for the ebay headsup I will give you a commission if ever I sell it (or buy you a beer or two if ever we meet up !)
Why Tom Boonen will win the Tour de France
Because he won’t even be there and still everybody will talk about him after every sprint. Because every time a national jersey is in sight, some commentator will mention that Tom Boonen isn’t there to show the Belgian Tricolore. Because the start is in Monaco and people will say how sad it is that Tom Boonen, who lives there, is not allowed to start, even if Tom Boonen doesn’t live there anymore. Because every time a gorgeous young bikini babe lines the road, men will lose confidence, rationalise “she’s too young for me anyway” and be secretly envious of Tommeke.
Why Tom Boonen will not win the Tour de France
If, by some 1 in a million chance of stars aligning, he does get his Tour start, he will not win. Because the French will still scorn him for tarnishing the Tour’s reputation. Because his lack of specific preparation and focus will make him lose every sprint. Because the Belgians will analyse to death his every 5th place in sprint stages and call him old and done for. Because Freire and, all right there you go, Benna will make fun of him behind his back while Cav will laugh about him to his face. Because every time he rides on the left side of the road, people will call a white line violation and snicker. I mean snort.
My favorite rider isn't in this race
So by default I’ll root for Evans and Menchov, not that either has much of a realistic chance, particularly Evans. At least in Menchov’s case he’s tasted victory, in big races like the Vuelta and Giro, but in Evans’ case he’s been the eternal second for so long, and chances are he’s not going to be able crack the top 3 with a field this good.
Not that I like either team much, but I would say the easy money is on an Astana vs. Saxo battle royal, with Contador and Schleck (Andy) going head to head on the Mont Ventoux. Evans, as usual, will be left to pick up the crumbs.
Christian VandeVelde
Why He will win
His teamgives him some time in the TTT. Because he gets away on the day with some hills and no radios and accidently does a Pereiro and gets a half an hour on everybody. Chance? 1/1000
Why he won’t win
He is marginally close to other climbers and that margin has been reduced by injury. His fitness cannot be at the peak. Healing bones takes metabolic resources that he will need. Secondly LA dissed him and therefore will do whatever it takes to be ahead of him at the finish. Look for Astana to not help Garmin.
Cut-paste
You should cut-paste this thingy into a separate fan post. Then, we can all quibble and such :-)
Definitely
I corrected the post — these should be fanposts! Thanks…
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 30, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks!
We’re off to a solid start, I see…
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 30, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You are dissing Sinkewitz deliberatly don't you?
Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder
all dissing.
Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder
Much too unknowledgeable to write one myself...
… but really enjoying the ones written so far. Fab idea.
it's more beast than man...
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 1, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Gesink
How many Dutch members do we have here… and no Gesink writeup?
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 1, 2009 1:50 AM EDT reply actions
Is that a hint?
Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder
Can I write one about myself?
"Where there’s a will, there’s a way.": Alberto Contador, shortly after waking up from brain surgery.
don't try to change the subject
you were asked to write one for Gesink
and we still haven’t seen it!!
Here I'll do one for you: Why NOT Lopex:
why he will win: [crickets]
why he will not: If I had 20 hours I could come up with a quarter of the reason’s
I could do a nice version
Why he will win: Has had a meteoric rise in the CQ-rankings
Why he will not: Can anyone beat Alberto Contador?
Oh, I like your version Jens!
I’m not sure about the CQ ranking. I got some points in the 2008 NC of the Netherlands Antilles which was postponed to september that year. This year they just did the NC last weekend like all normal countries. I’m not sure if the CQ ranking just looks at the points obtained in a whole year or if there is some rule forbidding double points from 2 editions of the same event within a year.
"Where there’s a will, there’s a way.": Alberto Contador, shortly after waking up from brain surgery.
What about Jens! ? Big George? Dan Martin? Vlad the Mullet? Bubbleboy Tom?
Mon coeur appartient à les forçats de la route.
Nibali
Young – excellent time triler. (Top 10 on stage 4 last year.) And he should be stronger this year. There are not may difficult uphill finishes this year – I think that he can stay with the leaders and finish better than most riders.
Also, there must be a reason why he has not ridden much this year. Liquigas has saved him for this one race this year. They seem to prefer him over Basso…..
O.K. Contador and a few other people still beat him. He’s better than most of the other riders though. – maybe.

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