Why not me? Carlos Sastre
by Hons on Jun 30, 2009 1:53 PM EDT
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In case anyone has forgotten, this is what you see when you look up the definition of grand tour specialist:
Let's refresh our memories shall we (btw, G/T/V refer to Giro/Tour/Vuelta and the # refers to final GC place)?
- 2000: V8
- 2001: T20
- 2002: G38; T10
- 2003: T9; V35
- 2004: T8; V6
- 2005: T21; V2
- 2006: G43; T3; V4
- 2007: T4; V2
- 2008: T1; V3
- 2009: G4
In summary, Carlos Sastre has finished top 10 in a GT 13 times, top-5...8 times in the last 5 years. He was in fact finishing top-10s when baby Schleck was still riding 650 wheels.
Why he will win?
We know that hehas the pedigree, but why will he win this year? Well, we saw in this years Giro (and last years tour) that when Carlos decides it's time to go up, not many have the ability to stay with him. We still haven't seen him try this on Bert, but I don't care who you are...to follow those attacks will take you deep into your suitcase of courage.
We also know that while not dominant, he can hold his own in longish end of GT ITT's. Last year in the Tour's 53km ITT he came in only 2'13 behind Tony...not too shabby.
Why won't he win?
5 letters: THnHH
CTT's dual goals for this years tour may jsut be Sastre's Achilles heel. Sprinters being the bane of the GC riders existence has been much discussed here, and I feel that we may see this played out this year. It's not that Sastre won't have enough support. Cuesta, JAGM and Gustov will be pletny of support for the early climbs, and Carlos has demonstrated that he has an impecable nack for using his competetors as domestiques...he just sits on their wheels until he's good and ready to go. However, if he does take the maillot jaune anywhere before Ventoux, I worry about the rest of the team's ability/desire to control the race for Carlos, especially if TH or HH are anywhere near being in contension for the maillot vert.
Prediction:
Sastre opens his favourite can o' whoop ass on the Ventoux and drops everyone but Bert who works with him to open up a big gap taking Sastre to the second step, and cementing Berts win. Bert gifts him the stage win to proove that he is no Lance. Sorry Chris, I think Andy will finish lower in the top 5...he just hasn't face this kind of competition over 3-weeks.
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Hmmmm...
and if Bike Racer Barbie is not in contension for the maillot vert? Can we expect him to put in Jens!-ian type efforts on the flats? That’s a role we’ve not seen him in, but I suspect he’s capable of.
Yeah I agree, and I’ll go a step further – I think Haussler’s going to be the revelation of the Tour. I know that’s a big prediction, and how can someone who was just 2nd in 2 monuments be a “revelation”…but I think those viewing him strictly as a sprinter will be proven wrong, I think we’re going to see an amazing all-round effort from him. Like itswells’s Jens comparison, only better. I think Sastre will be happy to have him on his team by the end of the Tour.
by plinytheelder on Jun 30, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree with this
he will (fingers crossed) assert himself as the next Jens!. he is 25 and his favorite race is roubaix, hardly a sprinters race.
Incroyable! Incroyable! Incroyable!
Sastre's MO is to lay low and pounce
If he is still anywhere near the podium heading in to the Ventoux stage, then we could be in for one hell of a show!
His best strategy is to avoid the leader’s jersey for as long as possible and stay just within reach of the other big guns until that last big climb. He has proven that he can do this, and he certainly has the proven track record of knowing how to ride a GT.
Can’t see him making up a big deficit on Contador on Ventoux, but can see him opening a decent gap….
"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi
What's V8?!
Thhe size of the motor of the teamcar?!
Crashdan: "Veni Vidi Vici beats Wing Kong Exchange... … and I’ll change my signature to a backwards smile for a month."
Frining "It's what he thinks.. But he always do.. I eat my shoe if he ride top 15 in le Tour" about Devolder
You're such a Frinkster!
V8 = “Carlos Sastre acheived the final place of 8th on the General Classification of the 2000 edition of the Vuelta a Espana”.
My prediction:
Sastre 3rd. I bet Andy carries a couple minutes on Sastre, gained in little pieces here and there, into Mt Ventoux, and hangs on to the second step.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 30, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions
Where?
Does Andy TT better than Carlos? I see CTT being behind Saxo in the TTT. But I can’t see Andy being in a group that Carlos isn’t when the road turns up. But I’ve been wrong before.
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
latter Pyrenean stages
Carlos historically futzes around in week one. TTT for sure. I know it’s a little hilly but… Goose Larsson? Cancellara? Andy’s biggest challenge will be to hang on. We can think well of Cervelo but really we have no idea how they’ll do.
Finally, Andy will have the benefit of SexyBack-Playas darting off left and right… an ever-confusing swirl of humanity. Carlos will eventually get dizzy watching and fall down.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah I think Carlos can climb even if not better than Andy...Carlos is also a bit better in the TT as well.
And remember that spectacular blow-up on Hautacam… I wouldn’t set the goals way too high.
by Vlaanderen90 on Jun 30, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
But who is going to save Carlos time in the TTT and who is going to protect him again accelerations in the first two weeks?
I love Carlos and had him as favourite last year from before the Tour started, but this year I’m fearing he’ll repeat his Giro result.
That plus Riis in a recent interview proclaimed TdF ‘09 is going to be extra fun because he knows how to exploit Sastre’s weaknesses.
Not meant in a twisted way, but Carlos is standing in the way to the podium.
Cuesta is his main man...he has some amazing old man strength...also Gomez Merchante and Gustov ( if they has some form)
Carlos only had one real guy in the Giro w/ Pauwels but he gained a lot of time on his own…
Also an aside on the course…There is only one hill finish in the first two weeks…the rest of the mountain finishes are after pretty lengthy descents. Sastre isn’t somebody who needs to be protected from accelerations too much seeing as he has a pretty powerful one himself.
by Vlaanderen90 on Jun 30, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
His acceleration is powerful in the tird week
because he knows how to save energy for then, by avoiding unnecessary accelerations the first two weeks. BTW, no one said these accelerations had to be on ascends.
“the rest of the mountain finishes are after pretty lengthy descents”
But to our knowledge the descends is another one of Sastre’s weaknesses, unless he has changed nature he won’t tale too big risks in the corners.
I’m just saying it won’t be easy to ride against a team once built to protect one, they ought to have a good picture of when one is likely to have off days.
And it’s worsened by having a competitor like Bert who is incredibly strong in the mountains and in TT and most likely has a much stronger TTT team.
Would be wonderful if he proved me wrong though.
Carlos will be on the podium next to Contador ( who will be first)...
I’d probably go with Carlos second with him gaining time in the Alps. I just hope Carlos is down to his Tour weight of 124 pounds…He will definitely take a stage somewhere…
Re-edits
well done cleaning this up Hons.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 30, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions
It might just be wishful thinking
But I think Sastre will win. I don’t think his lack of support will come into play very much. Sastre has always been a third week guy. He should do well enough in the TT’s to hang around the leaders, but I don’t think he’ll be wearing Yellow until the final day so no one will attack him, he can just hang on the wheels of who ever needs to protect the jersey. I think AC will fold under the pressure/paranoia of the Astana circus. I think Lance will thrive on it, but I don’t think he’ll have the legs. I think Levi will be a puppy trying to keep two masters happy, and not being able to pull it off. I think A Schleck will lose too much in the TT’s. I’d like Menchov’s chances more had he not just won the Giro, and history has shown how hard a double that is to pull off. That leaves us with Evans and Sastre. I think Ventoux this year will play out with an eery similarity to the Alpe last year. And that’s why Sastre will win.
Sastre in Yellow, Thor in Green.
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
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