Why Not Me? Levi Leipheimer

by PopUp Rolen on Jun 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT Comment 19 comments

Why He Will Win

Contrary to popular belief, this year’s parcours sets up perfect for Levi Leipheimer. One would think that the lack of time trial miles would hurt the specialist, but I submit that there are just enough to make a difference and not enough to burn too many of Levi’s matches. For the sake of argument, I am pitting Levi only vs. Bert, as I believe Bert is the clear favorite.

First, let’s look at this year’s TTs compared to the 2008 Vuelta. I picked this edition of the Vuelta because it was the last Grand Tour that both riders were aiming to peak at.

2008 Vuelta Stage 5 - 40km flat: Levi took 49 seconds from Bert on this stage.

2008 Vuelta Stage 20 - 16km uphill: Levi took 31 seconds from Bert on this stage

This year’s TdF Time Trials are eerily similar in distance, with a 15km slightly hilly TT in stage one and a 40.5km flat TT in stage 18. The profiles are different, but I think that works in Levi’s favor. There are fewer bumps in this year’s TdF TT profiles, only playing into Levi’s strength.

With 55.5kms of time trials in the 2009 TdF, I predict Levi can take at least a minute and a half from Albert, with the best case scenario being 2:30.

Even more important to Levi’s quest for the top step of the podium is the lack of TT miles. This may seem contrarian to the general thought that the only way Levi can take time on Bert is through time trials. However, I suggest that the lack of time trial kilometers will allow Levi to take valuable seconds, without burning his legs out.

Indulge me for a bit. We all know Levi goes 110% on every time trial because he has a chance of winning almost every time. And bike riders like to win. I don’t see Levi winning too many road races, so TTs are his one shot at glory. As a result, LL expends every ounce of energy on the time trials, which can hurt him later in the race.

This year’s “epic” Giro TT was a classic example. Levi’s effort on this wicked hard course killed his chances in the remaining mountain stages, thus killing his chance at a Giro win. Maybe if this year’s Giro TT were easier, he would have had the energy to compete on the subsequent mountain stages.

So bringing this chain of thought back to the 2009 TdF, If Levi can take anywhere from 1:30 to 2:30 on Contador in the TTs, where can Contador take it back?I believe the only place he can take it back is on mountain top finishes. And this year, we have three. I don’t think that’s enough and here’s why:

Stage 7: Too early and bert will not want to show his cards yet
Stage 15: Bert will take a bit on the last 2k, but not much
Stage 20: Bert’s big opportunity, but going by the theory that Levi just gets better as a tour progresses, I think Levi limits his losses to less than 30 seconds

In the end, the TT’s are just enough, but not too much for Levi to take time in the TTs and limit time losses in the mountain.

Why Won’t He Win #1: Take this exact same formula and insert in Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov. Both time trialists on par with Levi.

Why Won’t He Win #2: Levi and Lance’s summer Bromance continues and Levi sacrifices his chances for Armstrong’s ill-fated quest for another victory.

Prediction

1. Levi

2. Bert +21

3. Cadel +48

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Comments

hah! "summer bromance"

good stuff, PopUp.

by itswells on Jun 30, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That bromanc eis also bringing derving media attention to Levi via the Lance factor.

There are a million people (Lance’s Twitter followers) who probably never heard of Levi until Lance and he made the Team Faded videos in the team bus during the Giro. Now they know who Levi is and that is all good for Levi.

by ZoeRochelle on Jun 30, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crap. That subject should be:

That bromance is also bringing deserving media attention to Levi via the Lance factor.

by ZoeRochelle on Jun 30, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting theory on Levi and his TT strategy.

But as I understand it, a good stage racer should be able to recover after a hard effort even if it’s 110%. The day after the Giro TT was a bunch sprint, then he hung on for two mountain stages and finally cracked four days after the TT. If he hasn’t recovered in four days, he’s never going to win a stage race.

But I really like Levi and I’d love for him to win the Tour, especially this year since he’s on my VDS team.

by brunopitton on Jun 30, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How do you do 110%?

I like this analysis. Just when I was thinking it was sound, I thought, well that brings Evans and Menchov into the forefront too, and then you covered that thought. And then I thought about the bromance, well not in that terminology, but then you covered that thought as well. Levi, wouldn’t that be a hoot?

by sminer on Jun 30, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think this a patient man’s tour.

Grab seconds here, there and everywhere you can because I do not think it can all be won on the three uphill finishes. For sure Ventoux will crown the champion, just what it is designed to do this year, but to be ready for the appointment on stage 20 I think it will be more for the all arounders then the goats. The reports are the TTT is wicked hard… So I think this puts the Astana trio even more in the driver’s seat. If you can take real time in the TTT and also get seconds on day one. I think they way this programmed for drama on the last couple of days I don’t think it is built for Bert or Carlos. I know this puts me in minority but riders like Lance(if he has form) Cadel, DM or Levi are more built to take time everywhere on this course.

I agree with you my heart wants Levi to shine. I have always routed for him for some reason, I also think his training partner has been giving him aggression lessons because he seems lay it out a little more often then he use to.

But at the end of the day it will be the team dynamic that has a lot to say about this. I think, and start telling me now I am off my rocker, that this team is just not willing to bury itself for Bert like they have show they will for others on the team. So when push hits the fan what will happen? That is a big story line for this tour. And as Lance himself said in an interview this week, it is not just about Lance and Bert on Astana and Levi complicates it good way. Or could if they do not just rip each other to threads.

So here is hoping Levi has the form and the team support during the last week because only a rider with both of those and lot patience will will this one I think.

by ETlite on Jun 30, 2009 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tony?

I know that’s just silly, but I can dream. It’s a goal of his, he can TT (duh), and his climbing wasn’t too shabby at Suisse. Just how far out of this Levi/Menchov/Evans category is he?

And you over there — quit laughing at me! :)

-Greg

by gregm on Jun 30, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hang on

[chuckle…guffaw…cackle…]

OK, I’m done now.

Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!

by Chris... on Jun 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No you're not

I can still hear you giggling in the background.

I don’t believe it this year, but in 2011 you betcha.

by Jens on Jun 30, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about Levi taking that much time out of a new all-around Bertador...

and since the Tour de France doesn’t have the vibe of the tour of California and therefore isn’t a fun race, he won’t win…

by Vlaanderen90 on Jun 30, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nice analysis

i don’t have anything to counter the argument except that i think the internal situation at Astana is too toxic for a LL victory. he would need 100% from his team, which he will not get. that is the fatal flaw.

Incroyable! Incroyable! Incroyable!

by bikepig on Jun 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Levi won't win

Because he’s only there as training for the next Tour of California, his real focus of the year…

"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi

by muk on Jun 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Zing!

by Spot of Bother on Jun 30, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One day when the ToC is HUGE we'll look back on just who won the first 3...4...5... ToC's

just like we do with the other great tours. You just watch.

by ZoeRochelle on Jun 30, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh that's probably true

but until then, it will continue to entertain us.

"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten

by Hons on Jun 30, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah.

California will either fall into the ocean or be walled off before it happens.

by Sui Juris on Jun 30, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the question remains

by who?

"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten

by Hons on Jun 30, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TTis don't suit Levi at all this year

too short to gain much time and hilly as well…advantage Contador. Plus I can’t see him regaining all that much form after his loss of form at the Giro(great timing). He’s 3rd in-line on the team and won’t have much freedom, don’t see much coming from him this year. Of course there is always the Tour de la giro California.

by Phil H. on Jun 30, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice analysis

After that not so great showing in the Giro, I pretty much wrote Levi off. But the horses-for-courses argument has a lot of weight, and it is telling that Levi’s tail-off in the Giro began after he did so well on the TT.

by tgartner on Jun 30, 2009 9:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs